Serious [Consolation for our dear @JohnTan! haha] GE2011 (not GE2015) versus GE2020 (EXcluding Tanjong Pagar GRC, in order to compare more fairly)...

[empathizerofeatshitndie]

... please correct me if my calculations are wrong!

According to:
eld.gov.sg/elections_past_parliamentary2011.html
wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Singaporean_general_election#Results_summary
Total valid voters (i.e. excluding both invalid voters and those who did not vote) for GE2011 = 2,015,636 (excluding 139,771 walkover voters from Tanjong Pagar GRC)
Total valid PAP voters for GE2011 = 1,212,154
Total valid Opposition voters for GE2011 = 2,015,636 - 1,212,154 = 803,482

And according to:
wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Singaporean_general_election#Summary
straitstimes.com/multimedia/graphics/2020/07/singapore-general-election-ge2020-live-results/index.html
eld.gov.sg/press/2020/Press_Release_on_Total_Votes_Cast_at_Singapore_General_Election_2020.pdf
eld.gov.sg/finalresults2020.html

Total valid voters for GE2020 = 2,489,793
Total valid voters for GE2020 (excluding 123,688 valid voters from Tanjong Pagar GRC) = 2,489,793 - 123,688 = 2,366,105
Total valid PAP voters for GE2020 = 1,524,781
Total valid PAP voters for GE2020 (excluding 78,079 valid PAP voters from Tanjong Pagar GRC) = 1,524,781 - 78,079 = 1,446,702
Total valid Opposition voters for GE2020 = 2,489,793 - 1,524,781 = 965,012
Total valid Opposition voters for GE2020 (excluding 45,609 valid Opposition voters from Tanjong Pagar GRC) = 965,012 - 45,609 = 919,403

So as you can see, after nine years and excluding Tanjong Pagar GRC (in order to compare more fairly), the PAP has gained 1,446,702 - 1,212,154 = 234,548 more valid voters, which is an increase of 234,548 / 1,212,154 x 100% = roughly 19.3%
The Opposition has also gained more valid voters, but not as many, i.e. 919,403 - 803,482 = 115,921, which is an increase of 115,921 / 803,482 x 100% = roughly 14.4%

 

[Ralders]

New pink ic vote pap

local born singaporean young adults age 21
Vote opposition.

 

[Hypocrite-The]

New pink ic vote pap

local born singaporean young adults age 21
Vote opposition.

Singkies women also vote pap

 

[zhihau]

Very interesting trends. I make one more prediction here, the grand opening of Founders Memorial will be close to the next GE, definitely within a year to have impact on voting patterns.

 

[empathizerofeatshitndie]

New pink ic vote pap

local born singaporean young adults age 21
Vote opposition.

Dear @Ralders, many thanks for gracing another humble thread of mine!

Firstly, just in case you are not aware, during the past nine years (i.e. between mid-2011 and mid-2020), an average of roughly 20,000 Sinkies died every year, so that's a total of roughly 180,000:
singstat.gov.sg/find-data/search-by-theme/population/death-and-life-expectancy/visualising-data/mortality-dashboard


and I believe a supermajority of at least 69% of them voted for the PAP in May 2011 before they died.

Secondly, also during the past nine years, an average of also roughly 20,000 PRs became "new citizens" every year, so that's a total of also roughly 180,000:
straitstimes.com/singapore/goal-15000-25000-new-citizens-a-year
channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/population-number-singapore-foreign-workers-new-citizens-11941034


Therefore, I believe that not only did nearly all (i.e. at least 96.9%) of those roughly 180,000 "new citizens" vote for the PAP this year, but a supermajority of at least 69% of them were replacements for the supermajority of at least 69% of those roughly 180,000 dead Sinkies who voted for the PAP in May 2011 before they died, resulting in at most (96.9% - 69%) x 180,000 = only roughly 50,000 "new citizens" making an insignificant positive difference of 50,000 / 2,489,793 x 100% = almost exactly 2% of the total valid voters voting for the PAP this year.

As for Sinkie young adults in their 20s (i.e. born during the 1990s), nearly half a million of them are still alive, according to:
strategygroup.gov.sg/files/media-centre/publications/population-in-brief-2019.pdf


To be more precise, as of "June 2019", 229,900 + 248,600 = roughly 478,500 of them are still alive; but because they were born during the ten-year period from July 1989 to June 1999, and GE2011 was held roughly nine years ago, let's assume that 478,500 / 10 x 9 = roughly 430,650 of them were not eligible to vote in GE2011, but are eligible to vote this year.

And if my calculations are correct, and excluding Tanjong Pagar GRC (in order to compare more fairly), then after nine years:

The Opposition has also gained more valid voters, but not as many, i.e. 919,403 - 803,482 = 115,921, which is an increase of 115,921 / 803,482 x 100% = roughly 14.4%

so even if we assume that all those 115,921 additional Opposition valid voters are 21 to 29 years old now (and who were not eligible to vote in GE2011), please remember that the total number of Sinkies who are 21 to 29 years old now is at least FOUR hundred thousand!

For this year's GE2020, the total eligible voters was 2,651,435; so let's assume that in every SMC and GRC, 430,650 / 2,651,435 x 100% = roughly 16.24% of the valid voters are 21 to 29 years old now; and since there were 123,688 valid voters from Tanjong Pagar GRC, so 16.24% x 123,688 = roughly 20,087 valid voters from Tanjong Pagar GRC are 21 to 29 years old now.

Therefore, assuming that all the 803,482 Opposition valid voters for GE2011 continued voting for any opposition party this year, that would mean that 115,921 / (430,650 - 20,087) x 100% = only roughly 28.2% of the eligible voters who are 21 to 29 years old now voted for any opposition party this year!
And that obviously also means that the vast majority of them voted for the PAP, right?
Even if some of them did not vote because they were studying/working overseas, I believe at least 60% of them were in Singapore and voted for the PAP!

 

[A Singaporean]

Very interesting trends. I make one more prediction here, the grand opening of Founders Memorial will be close to the next GE, definitely within a year to have impact on voting patterns.

Not sure this will help. With the influx of CECAs there will be vast unemployment of young and old Sinkies and nothing can help the PAP.

 

[steffychun]

He should commit Harikiri.

 

[empathizerofeatshitndie]

Dear @Ralders, many thanks for gracing another humble thread of mine!

Firstly, just in case you are not aware, during the past nine years (i.e. between mid-2011 and mid-2020), an average of roughly 20,000 Sinkies died every year, so that's a total of roughly 180,000:
singstat.gov.sg/find-data/search-by-theme/population/death-and-life-expectancy/visualising-data/mortality-dashboard


and I believe a supermajority of at least 69% of them voted for the PAP in May 2011 before they died.

Secondly, also during the past nine years, an average of also roughly 20,000 PRs became "new citizens" every year, so that's a total of also roughly 180,000:
straitstimes.com/singapore/goal-15000-25000-new-citizens-a-year
channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/population-number-singapore-foreign-workers-new-citizens-11941034


Therefore, I believe that not only did nearly all (i.e. at least 96.9%) of those roughly 180,000 "new citizens" vote for the PAP this year, but a supermajority of at least 69% of them were replacements for the supermajority of at least 69% of those roughly 180,000 dead Sinkies who voted for the PAP in May 2011 before they died, resulting in at most (96.9% - 69%) x 180,000 = only roughly 50,000 "new citizens" making an insignificant positive difference of 50,000 / 2,489,793 x 100% = almost exactly 2% of the total valid voters voting for the PAP this year.

As for Sinkie young adults in their 20s (i.e. born during the 1990s), nearly half a million of them are still alive, according to:
strategygroup.gov.sg/files/media-centre/publications/population-in-brief-2019.pdf


To be more precise, as of "June 2019", 229,900 + 248,600 = roughly 478,500 of them are still alive; but because they were born during the ten-year period from July 1989 to June 1999, and GE2011 was held roughly nine years ago, let's assume that 478,500 / 10 x 9 = roughly 430,650 of them were not eligible to vote in GE2011, but are eligible to vote this year.

And if my calculations are correct, and excluding Tanjong Pagar GRC (in order to compare more fairly), then after nine years:

The Opposition has also gained more valid voters, but not as many, i.e. 919,403 - 803,482 = 115,921, which is an increase of 115,921 / 803,482 x 100% = roughly 14.4%

so even if we assume that all those 115,921 additional Opposition valid voters are 21 to 29 years old now (and who were not eligible to vote in GE2011), please remember that the total number of Sinkies who are 21 to 29 years old now is at least FOUR hundred thousand!

For this year's GE2020, the total eligible voters was 2,651,435; so let's assume that in every SMC and GRC, 430,650 / 2,651,435 x 100% = roughly 16.24% of the valid voters are 21 to 29 years old now; and since there were 123,688 valid voters from Tanjong Pagar GRC, so 16.24% x 123,688 = roughly 20,087 valid voters from Tanjong Pagar GRC are 21 to 29 years old now.

Therefore, assuming that all the 803,482 Opposition valid voters for GE2011 continued voting for any opposition party this year, that would mean that 115,921 / (430,650 - 20,087) x 100% = only roughly 28.2% of the eligible voters who are 21 to 29 years old now voted for any opposition party this year!
And that obviously also means that the vast majority of them voted for the PAP, right?
Even if some of them did not vote because they were studying/working overseas, I believe at least 60% of them were in Singapore and voted for the PAP!

Dear @Ralders, many thanks for liking the above post of mine yesterday!

 

[bobby]

New pink ic vote pap

local born singaporean young adults age 21
Vote opposition.

That was clearly stated under "terms and conditions" for new citizens.......

 

[empathizerofeatshitndie]

Dear @Ralders, many thanks for liking the above post of mine yesterday!

Dear @jw5, many thanks for joining @Ralders in liking that same post of mine yesterday!

 

[jw5]

You are most welcome!

Dear @jw5, many thanks for joining @Ralders in liking that same post of mine yesterday!