https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/jssd/2019-05-22/doc-ihvhiqay0473932.shtml
华为面对美国打压能否扛得住？张召忠这样解读
华为面对美国打压能否扛得住？张召忠这样解读
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昨天上午谷歌率先“断交”华为，要直“掐”华为设备操作系统，这还只是第一步 。
芯片“断更”，美科技股再遭“洗劫”
有了谷歌打头阵，昨日下午，芯片圈也开始“擂战鼓”。英特尔（Intel）、高通（Qualcomm）、赛灵思（Xilinx）、博通（Broadcom）等美国芯片厂商已告知员工，在接到进一步通知前不会向华为供货。
消息一出，美国大型科技股全线收低：苹果跌3.13%，谷歌其母公司收跌逾2%，微软跌1.44%。
芯片股也受重挫：高通和博通均跌近6%，费城半导体指数、美光科技、台积电（欧美控股）跌近4%，英伟达跌超3%，AMD、凌云半导体跌近3%。
（图截：东方财富网）
华为光学元件供应商Lumentum股价暴跌了11.5%，今天凌晨该公司“跟风”谷歌也宣布停止给华为供货，股价再跌4.1%，连续3个交易日该公司股价已经暴跌22.55%。
日媒昨日爆出的假新闻：德国芯片供应商英飞凌（Infineon Technologies）也已暂停向华为供货。害的英飞凌股价当天开盘平白无故跌了3.8%，同样受影响的还有意法半导体，股价开盘重挫3.9%。
（图截：英飞凌官网）
目前美国IT公司的连锁反应已经在IT科技圈引起了动荡，而如果特朗普团队真的开启全面限制，那对全球半导体产业来说会是一次动乱。
美国分析师认为华为对美国的半导体产业依赖严重，一旦美国在源头掐死，华为就会瘫痪，但美国也将付出相应的代价，比如5G时代的延迟到来和让美科技公司损失严重。
今天华为创始人任正非正式回复关于美国假惺惺的“90天临时执照”的新闻：“这个90天对我们已经没有多大意义，因为我们已经准备好了，我们不需要这90天！”
华为真的准备好了吗？
因为去年的“中兴”前车之鉴，华为已经有了预备方案，目前已经备足了半年到一年的核心元件，商品供应暂时不会受到影响。
华为旗下的芯片公司海思半导体总裁何庭波在5月17日发布了一封致员工的内部信已经刷屏，大家应该都知道华为的“备胎芯片”即将转正。
（制图：马克）
去年，围绕芯片我们做了4期《张召忠说》，这里我们带大家再简单回顾下去年我们说到的芯片产业。
芯片产业是一条相当复杂的产业链，横向看是种类各异，功能不同的芯片；纵向看是芯片的设计、制造和组装的产业细化。
横向分析：
我们用华为最新的手机来分析，仅它的主板部分就有多家公司提供核心元件。
（图源：IFIXIT）
音效芯片（图中的4）和RF收发器（图中的1）由华为自家制的海思提供。
美国半导体公司思佳讯（Skyworks）负责设计和制造芯片的射频前端模组（front end module，图中的2）令手机可以接收手机网络讯号；另一间美国半导体公司Qorvo则负责制造处理不同电台频道的射频前端模组（front end module，图中的2）。（两者均受到美国禁令影响）
而美国半导体公司美光科技（Micron Technologies）就设计了快闪存储器（图中的5），可以令其有128GB的储存量。
韩国SK海力士 （SK Hynix）半导体公司则负责设计和生产动态随机存取记忆体（DRAM，图中的6）。
去年，华为公布核心供应商名单，里面有33家美国企业。
（图源：路透社）
华为的芯片供应商数量多并不是问题，问题在于华为对于国外高端芯片的依赖相对严重，自主产品目前也并非绝对成熟，低端芯片可实现代替，高端芯片代替暂时存在难度。
纵向分析：
芯片产业整体发展已经成熟，为了提高效率出现了产业划分。我们从芯片产业上游、中游来分析，下游组装技术含量相对较弱这里不再赘述。
芯片产业上游的架构设计芯片的，也是核心中的核心。高通、博通就是芯片设计公司，华为旗下的海思也是如此，设计却不进行实际生产。
（图截：海思官网）
华为海思现已成为世界相对领先的芯片设计公司。可是海思的芯片想要实体化还需要两个步骤：分别是ARM架构授权和芯片代工生产。
华为已拥有ARMv8架构的永久授权，可以自主研发设计ARMv8处理器。即便ARM公司按照美国要求不再向华为提供指令集授权，也不会受其影响。
中游生产阶段就需要代工厂。
台积电不仅是晶圆代工模式的首创者，也是这一领域公认的“领头羊”。作为全球最大的晶圆代工半导体制造厂，当然和华为合作密切。
在美国举国之力制约华为的形势下，台积电目前表示和华为合作不断，会继续向华为正常出货，但还会有后期持续的观察与评估。这意味着台积电给华为代工制造的海思麒麟980以及下半年面世的改进型麒麟985处理器只是暂时肯定不会受影响。
另外值得注意的是从台积电的股权占比来看，它还是一家主要由欧美财团控股的企业。
一旦台积电“断更了”华为的另一个危机就出现了。
而目前大陆的如中芯国际和台积电相比，技术还是有所差，供应华为的中低端机完全没问题，可面对高端机还是头疼。中芯国际今年才量产14纳米制程芯片，台积电的5纳米已顺利试产并计划明年量产了。
华为已经计划在英国剑桥城附近建设一家可容纳400名员工的芯片研发工厂，预计将在2021年投入使用。
而等它技术成熟还需要一段时间。
美国真的会全领域封锁吗？
其实我们从芯片的产业双向分析后，可以了解到，在正常市场规律的运作下，不会有一家企业会囊括上游到下游的所有领域，这是市场和效率的双作用演变出的流程。
（制图：马克）
所以美国如果真的要一网打尽，从操作层面来说也有一定难度，从影响层面，那对全球的ICT行业来说都是“噩梦”。
而对于全球化的今天，美国很多芯片公司的大单就是华为，如果全行业链封锁，也会反噬美国，到时候美国可能真的赔了夫人又折兵。
但美国针对华为操作系统+芯片限制的一系列操作也给了我们警示：核心技术才是硬实力。
而对于华为来说现在就是“加班加点”攻克核心技术和扩大低端领域的供应商范围双向结合，这体现在华为对于自己的5G技术的自信上。
整体来说目前华为的“备胎”芯片某种程度上是“提前”启动，是应对巨变的缓冲，而这个缓冲时期也许就是华为正式脱制其它束缚，掌握核心技术的关键时期。
现在“美国针对华为事件”在某种程度上也给国内ICT企业一个启示，只有掌握核心技术，实现“中国芯”，才是真正的强大。（作者署名：局座召忠）
Can Huawei withstand the pressure from the United States? Interview with Zhang Zhaozhong
Can Huawei withstand the pressure from the United States? Interview with Zhang Zhaozhong
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Yesterday morning, Google took the lead in "breaking off" Huawei, and it was only the first step to "snap" Huawei's device operating system.
The chip is "broken", and the US technology stocks are "laundered" again.
With Google's lead, yesterday afternoon, the chip circle also began to "drums." US chip makers such as Intel, Qualcomm, Xilinx, and Broadcom have told employees that they will not ship to Huawei until further notice is received.
As soon as the news came out, large US technology stocks closed lower: Apple fell 3.13%, Google's parent company closed down more than 2%, and Microsoft fell 1.44%.
Chip stocks also suffered heavy losses: both Qualcomm and Broadcom fell nearly 6%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, Micron Technology, TSMC (European and American Holdings) fell nearly 4%, Nvidia fell more than 3%, AMD, Lingyun Semiconductor fell nearly 3%.
(Figure cut: Eastern Fortune Network)
Shares of Huawei optical component supplier Lumentum plummeted 11.5%. Today, the company “followed the wind” Google also announced that it would stop supplying to Huawei. The stock price fell another 4.1%. The company’s share price has plummeted 22.55% for three consecutive trading days.
Japanese media yesterday broke the news: German chip supplier Infineon Technologies (Infineon Technologies) has also suspended supply to Huawei. The stock price of Infineon fell 3.8% on the opening day, and it was also affected by STMicroelectronics. The stock price fell 3.9%.
(Figure cut: Infineon official website)
At present, the chain reaction of American IT companies has caused turmoil in the IT technology circle, and if the Trump team really opens up comprehensive restrictions, it will be a turmoil for the global semiconductor industry.
US analysts believe that Huawei is heavily dependent on the US semiconductor industry. Once the US is dying at the source, Huawei will be embarrassed, but the United States will also pay a corresponding price, such as the delay in the 5G era and the loss of the US technology company.
Today, Huawei founder Ren Zheng informally responded to the news about the "90-day temporary license" of the US fake: "This 90 days has not meant much to us because we are ready, we don't need these 90 days!"
Is Huawei really ready?
Because of the "Zhongxing" in the past, Huawei has already prepared a plan. At present, it has already prepared the core components for half a year to one year, and the supply of goods will not be affected for the time being.
He Tingbo, president of Huawei's chip company, HiSilicon, released a letter to employees on May 17th. Everyone should know that Huawei's "prepared tire chip" is about to turn positive.
(Cartography: Mark)
Last year, we made four issues of "Zhang Zhaozhong" around the chip. Here we take everyone to briefly review the chip industry we talked about last year.
The chip industry is a fairly complex industrial chain. Horizontally, it is a variety of chips with different functions; vertical view is the industry refinement of chip design, manufacturing and assembly.
Horizontal analysis:
We use Huawei's latest mobile phone to analyze, and only a few of its motherboards provide core components.
(Source: IFIXIT)
The audio chip (4 in the figure) and the RF transceiver (1 in the figure) are provided by Huawei's own HiSilicon.
US semiconductor company Skyworks is responsible for designing and manufacturing the chip's RF front-end module (2 in the figure) so that the phone can receive the mobile phone network signal; another US semiconductor company Qorvo is responsible for manufacturing and processing different stations. The front end module of the channel (2 in the figure). (both are affected by the US ban)
Micron Technologies, the US semiconductor company, designed the flash memory (5 in the figure) to give it 128GB of storage.
SK Hynix Semiconductor Co., Ltd. is responsible for the design and production of dynamic random access memory (DRAM, 6 in the figure).
Last year, Huawei announced a list of core suppliers with 33 US companies.
(Source: Reuters)
The number of Huawei's chip suppliers is not a problem. The problem is that Huawei's dependence on foreign high-end chips is relatively serious. The independent products are not absolutely mature at present. Low-end chips can be replaced, and high-end chips can be replaced.
Longitudinal analysis:
The overall development of the chip industry has matured, and industrial division has emerged in order to improve efficiency. We analyze from the upstream and middle reaches of the chip industry, and the downstream assembly technology content is relatively weak, so I won't go into details here.
The architecture design chip upstream of the chip industry is also the core of the core. Qualcomm and Broadcom are chip design companies. The same is true for Huawei's HiSilicon, but the design is not actual production.
(Figure cut: Haisi official website)
Huawei HiSilicon has become the world's leading chip design company. However, it takes two steps for HiSilicon's chip to be materialized: ARM architecture authorization and chip foundry production.
Huawei has a permanent license for the ARMv8 architecture and can independently design and design ARMv8 processors. Even if ARM does not provide instruction set authorization to Huawei in accordance with US requirements, it will not be affected.
The foundry is required at the mid-stream production stage.
TSMC is not only the founder of the foundry model, but also a recognized leader in this field. As the world's largest foundry semiconductor manufacturing plant, of course, it cooperates closely with Huawei.
Under the situation that the power of the United States in the United States restricts Huawei, TSMC currently expresses its continued cooperation with Huawei and will continue to ship to Huawei normally, but there will be continued observation and evaluation in the later period. This means that the Hessian Kirin 980 manufactured by TSMC for Huawei's foundry and the improved Kirin 985 processor that will be available in the second half of the year will only be temporarily unaffected.
It is also worth noting that from the perspective of TSMC's shareholding, it is also a company mainly controlled by European and American consortia.
Once TSMC "breaks" Huawei's other crisis has emerged.
At present, compared with SMIC in mainland China, the technology is still poor. The medium and low-end machines that supply Huawei are completely ok, and they can face high-end machines or headaches. SMIC has only produced 14nm process chips this year. TSMC's 5nm has been successfully trial-produced and is scheduled to be mass-produced next year.
Huawei has plans to build a chip development plant with a capacity of 400 employees near Cambridge, England, which is expected to be operational in 2021.
It will take a while for the technology to mature.
Will the United States really block the whole field?
In fact, we can understand from the two-way analysis of the chip industry that under the normal market operation, there will be no enterprise that will cover all areas from upstream to downstream, which is the process of the dual effect of market and efficiency.
(Cartography: Mark)
Therefore, if the United States really wants to go all out, it will be difficult from the operational level. From the impact level, it is a "nightmare" for the global ICT industry.
For today's globalization, the big orders of many chip companies in the United States are Huawei. If the whole industry chain is blocked, it will also counter the United States. At that time, the United States may have lost its wife and soldiers.
However, a series of operations in the United States against Huawei's operating system + chip restrictions also gave us warning: the core technology is hard power.
For Huawei, it is now a "two-way work" to overcome the core technology and expand the two-way combination of suppliers in the low-end field, which is reflected in Huawei's confidence in its own 5G technology.
On the whole, Huawei's "prepared tire" chip is somewhat "starting ahead" and is a buffer for dealing with great changes. This buffer period may be a crucial period for Huawei to officially dismantle other constraints and master core technologies.
Now, "the United States is facing Huawei incidents" to some extent also gives domestic ICT companies a revelation. Only by mastering the core technologies and realizing the "China Core" is the real power. (Author's signature: Bureau Call Zhaozhong)
