China will become the world's largest space power: US professor
Staff Reporter 2013-08-05 17:49
China is now one of only two nations able to send personnel into space. (Photo/Xinhua)
In a recent article entitled China is Winning the Space Race published in the Foreign Policy magazine on Aug. 2, associate professor John Hickman from Berry College in the US state of Georgia said that Beijing will likely become the world's most important player in outer space in just a decade.
While pointing out that the launch of the Shenzhou-10 spacecraft and the unmanned lunar probe Chang'e 2 may seem unimpressive, Hickman said that those are unmistakable warning signs that China may surpass the United States and Russia to become the world's preeminent spacefaring power. China has wasted no time in catching up with the achievements of the Americans and Russians, according to Hickman, adding that China has invested more resources in constructing reliable and mass-producible spacecrafts. The United States and Russia, meanwhile, have wasted significant sums to develop customized and expensive space shuttles.
NASA's budget has been cut down from 4.41% in 1966 to 0.48% last year, however the Chinese space program enjoys generous and stable funding from the government and it also receives direct support from the leadership of the Communist Party of China. Hickman said that China's president Xi Jinping will also be unlikely to shut down the Shenzhou missions to diminish the legacy of his predecessors — unlike former US president Richard Nixon who terminated the manned lunar exploration during his term in office.
"The United States may have given up on the space dream, but it still burns brightly in the Chinese psyche," said Hickman, adding that from the perspective of Chinese nationalists, it is a method to wash away the nation's two centuries of humiliation imposed by Western powers. "Anxiety about technology transfers prompted the Pentagon to reject Chinese participation in the International Space Station program, a decision that has drawn little objection from the other 14 participating countries," said Hickman.
To break through the encirclement imposed on China by the United States, Hickman concluded that a manned landing on Mars would be able to solve the problem. If it is too risky, Hickman said that establishing a permanent manned Moon base is attractive as well. "A permanent Moon base would probably only cost something comparable to that of the ISS, approximately $5 billion a year," he said, "Additionally, the Moon possesses ice, which can be turned in water and oxygen."
"There is much more to be gained from a Moon base than satisfying honor," said Hickman, "Remember that manned space missions are an escape from a perceived geopolitical encirclement, comparable to that felt by German political and military elites in the late 19th century." Once China becomes the leading power in the space, Hickman said that it is possible for China to request a revision of the international legal regime for space. Since the United States is currently depending on Russia to transport personnel and much of its cargo to and from the ISS, China's Shenzhou-10 reminds us that for at least the next few years, space is only accessible via a Russian or Chinese rocket, he said, adding that many astronauts from the European Space Agency are now learning Chinese.
