Political analysts expect more oppo parties to be set-up
Protected May 22nd, 2015 | Author: Editorial
With Goh Meng Seng announcing the setting up of his new political party, the People’s Power Party (PPP), political analysts are bracing for more opposition parties to be set-up prior to the run-up to the next GE.
Even the dormant Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has also sprung into action again, according to media reports.
Part of the reasons for the keen interest in opposition politics is due to the perceived weakening of PAP, with its many flawed policies implemented in recent times, angering the electorate. Thus, all the seats are expected to be contested in the forthcoming GE.
In a recent Mediacorp radio call-in programme, PM Lee admitted as much. He said, “I think the Opposition will contest in every GRC in the upcoming elections, unlike in previous GEs where many areas were not contested. In such a situation, every vote is important, every Singaporean’s decision has an impact, we have to consider it carefully.”
Dr Gillian Koh, senior research fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies of NUS, said that the emergence of new political parties in the run-up to the next polls is not surprising, given that past elections have always had a “smattering” of different parties.
The death of strongman Lee Kuan Yew could also have been an impetus for new opposition aspirants, political analysts said. This is because of the perception that PAP would become less “hegemonic”.
However, former NMP Associate Professor Eugene Tan cautioned, “We need to look at the quality and contribution of these parties too.”
Singapore to become a two-party system
Prof Tan believes Singapore is on its way to form a two-party system. He cited the 2013 Punggol East by-election, where two candidates in a four-cornered fight lost their election deposits because they had garnered too few votes. This suggests there is a “real possibility” that many opposition parties would be rendered “politically irrelevant” due to the fragmented scene, he said.
“As long as the WP contests (a seat), we’re very unlikely to see a second Opposition party going in, because the voters who do not want to vote for the PAP have shown that they’re discerning enough not to split the vote significantly,” added Prof Tan, citing the experience of Punggol East by-election.
Therefore, he thinks that multi-cornered fights would give little advantage to PAP. “Voters who wanted an Opposition MP decided to pool their ballots for the Opposition candidate they assessed to be the best or had the best chance of winning,” he said.
Indeed, in political science, there exists a principle called Duverger’s law, which asserts that plurality rule elections like the Westminster First-Past-the-Post system, which Singapore’s parliamentary system is modeled after, tend to favor a two-party system in the long run [Link].
The discovery of this tendency is attributed to Maurice Duverger, a French sociologist who observed the effect and recorded it in several papers published in the 1950s and 1960s. In the course of further research, other political scientists began calling the effect a “law” or principle. Duverger’s law suggests a nexus or synthesis between a party system and an electoral system: a proportional representation system creates the electoral conditions necessary to foster party development while a plurality system (e.g. Westminster’s) marginalizes many smaller political parties, resulting in what is known as a two-party system.
In any case, opposition party chiefs have told the media that they will try to avoid three-cornered fights.
Multi-party system
Some opposition party chiefs, however, disagreed with what Prof Tan said about Singapore having a 2-party system. They were firm in their belief in a multi-party system, stressing that having two parties in power would be “unstable”.
“You will end up with a constant bickering between the two parties, and it’s very disruptive. A lot of attention is on municipal issues,” said Mr Goh Meng Seng, citing the AHPETC court dispute between WP and PAP.
Agreeing, SDA Chief Desmond Lim said, “Parliament should have multiple parties to check on each other, and be involved in policy making.”
Mr Lim lost twice in Punggol East SMC, once in 2011 GE and another in the by-election of 2013. Both times, he lost his hefty election deposits. Mr Lim gained the dubious honour of scoring the smallest vote share since the independence of Singapore.
Speaking to reporters, Mr Lim said he still intends to contest in the upcoming GE. “Just because you failed once, it doesn’t mean you won’t do better next time. People should have an open heart and mind, and see what the party can offer in the coming election,” he said.
Actually, it’s twice for Mr Lim in Punggol East, if one is count the Punggol East By-Election in 2013.
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