By the end of the year Sweden will have no excess mortality for 2020.

[Leongsam]

https://www.covid19insweden.com/en/deaths.html

Since the end of May 2020 the total number of deaths per day have been consistently LESS than the number of deaths for the same period averaged between 2015 to 2019.

If the trend continues for sept/oct/nov/dec what it will mean the total deaths for 2020 were the same as the previous 5 years.

 

[frenchbriefs]

u know USA excess mortality was double for the same period this year from march to july as last year?

the death rate caused by covid nearly doubled.

 

[syed putra]

Unfortunately, swedes are not allowed to travel anywhere outside of sweden.

 

[Hypocrite-The]

What Sweden's experience tells us about the herd immunity model
Posted 9h

Sweden has had a more protracted outbreak, with far more deaths per capita than its Scandinavian neighbours.(TT Via Reuters: Stina Stjernkvist)
Sweden's coronavirus suppression strategy was an experiment that few other nations dared champion.
The country's approach has been more liberal than the lockdowns imposed in neighbouring countries or, indeed, around the world.
Instead of mandated curfews and shutdowns, Sweden chose to keep most schools and businesses open throughout the COVID-19 outbreak.
But the model has come under fire, particularly in recent days after email exchanges of the country's chief epidemiologist at the beginning of the pandemic came to light.
The emails, obtained by Swedish journalists under freedom of information laws, showed that in March, Anders Tegnell appeared to ask whether a higher death rate among older people might be acceptable if it led to faster herd immunity.
"One point would be to keep schools open to reach herd immunity faster," Dr Tegnell wrote.
He has famously said that although the death rate was too high, "on the whole [Sweden] would go down the same route" if it had its time again.

Sweden's chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell's plan to combat COVID-19 has been criticised and compared to herd immunity.(Foreign Correspondent)
Sweden's death rate is among the worst in the world, although it remains lower than some European countries which had imposed much harsher measures, including Italy, Britain and Spain.
More than 5,700 Swedes have died since the start of the year and health authorities have since acknowledged there were clear failings in the preparedness of aged-care homes, just as we're seeing in Australia.
The Swedish Government has ordered an inquiry into what went wrong in aged care homes, where thousands died after being exposed to COVID-19.
But cases and deaths have fallen dramatically since a surge in infections earlier this year, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at Stockholm's Karolinska Institute Joakim Dillner said.
"The reproductive rate of the infection declined drastically as a result of these non-compulsory measures," he said.
Herd immunity remains contentious within the scientific community
During the pandemic, Sweden has been the pariah in Scandinavia.
Its approach was starkly different from the suppression strategies adopted in Norway, Denmark and Finland.

Schools never closed in Sweden, with celebrations held for Year 12 students when they graduated.(TT Via Reuters: Jessica Gow)
Yet life in Sweden has still changed for many of its 10 million citizens, prompting immunologists to suggest its strategy can't be seen as relaxed, just less stringent.
The Swedish Government did put some restrictions in place. Large gatherings were banned and Swedes were asked to avoid non-essential travel, work from home, and to isolate if they were unwell.
And unlike many European countries which first shut up shop and then re-opened for summer, most of Sweden's measures to curb infections remain the same.
"We've had a rather open society, based on recommendations," Professor Dillner said.
"We've not really had draconian measures, but it's still obvious that it worked."
But Professor Dillner says within the scientific community there is still "fierce debate" over the strategy that has been adopted.
Prioritised testing of people who are sick, and not widespread screening of healthcare workers, was a mistake in his view.
"There was no screening of the healthcare workers in homes for the elderly, and I think at least in the scientific community, we're upset about that," he said.
"We feel that when the WHO said 'test, test and test again' — we should have done that."
Officials were relying on common sense of citizens
Earlier this year, the Swedish Government insisted that its unique approach reflected the nature of the pandemic and the wait for a vaccine, calling it "a marathon not a sprint".

Swedes were outdoors enjoying the summer sun as other countries faced tougher lockdowns.(Reuters: Stina Stjernkvist)
Sweden's Prime Minister Stefan Löfven said public health officials were relying on "Folkvett" — the common sense of citizens — to ensure the health system wasn't overwhelmed.
It was estimated that by rejecting tougher measures, 40 per cent of Stockholm's population would have achieved herd immunity by May.
Now, some studies suggest that never materialised.
A paper published by the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine found about 15-20 per cent of the population in the capital had developed antibodies.
Lead author Professor David Goldsmith has been critical of Sweden's approach.
"I think it was naive, frankly, not to do more at the outset, [but] they would argue that it's okay and they seem quite pleased with their response," he said.
"They've had a death rate that's 10 times per million population of the local countries, which really are their best comparison."
He said antibodies weren't found in high rates in asymptomatic patients, meaning they're not likely to be immune.
"I think they've got to ask themselves: was that really the right way to go?" Professor Goldsmith said.
"Particularly if there isn't herd immunity, which I don't think there will be."
But Professor Dillner believes there is a "significant spread" in some populations in Stockholm, suggesting his research found about 8-31 per cent of healthcare workers in Stockholm had tested positive in antibody tests.
Did Sweden's strategy cushion the financial blow?
Sweden's public health officials insisted their strategy was not focussed on cushioning the economy, but many were watching to see whether its light lockdown would lessen the pandemic's economic impact there.
Its economy shrank by 8.6 per cent in the April-to-June quarter — the worst performance in decades.

Coronavirus cases and deaths have fallen dramatically since a surge in infections earlier this year, a professor of infectious disease says.(Reuters: Anders Wiklund)
But alongside other Nordic nations, it hasn't been nearly as hard-hit as larger European economies.
Professor Andreas Ortmann, an expert on experimental and behavioural economics at the University of New South Wales, said it's far too early to tell if the Swedes' strategy was a success or a dangerous gamble.
"At this point, simply to look at one measure, which is the death rate, is just completely unscientific and completely misleading," he told the ABC.
Instead, Professor Ortmann said a longer-term assessment would need to take into account the rate of underemployment, business confidence and the mental health of Sweden's citizens.
He believes one of Sweden's strengths is that public confidence in health advice appears to be strong, limiting the risk of fatigue in the long-run.
"The public health authority is quite popular, even now. Two out of three Swedes seem to be not unhappy with what they have been doing," he said.
"Compliance in Sweden with the recommendations of the public health authority is incredibly high, it's about 80 per cent."

It was estimated that by rejecting tougher measures, 40 per cent of Stockholm's population would have achieved herd immunity by May.(TT Via AP: Anders Wiklund)
Professor Goldsmith agrees, saying that only in years to come will we be able to fairly compare the different approaches adopted by nations around the world.
"Everybody would really love to have the answers to everything and know exactly what to do today," he said.
"This coronavirus is an impressive adversary, one that we should never underestimate at all."
As for the short-term, Dr Tegnell recently said that rapid testing and contact tracing will be key to the second stage of Sweden's attempt to weather the pandemic.
Professor Dillner said many infectious diseases experts are cautiously waiting to see whether Sweden will be properly prepared for a second wave of infections in the European autumn and winter.
"This is the big worry, no-one knows what happens in the future."

 

[Leongsam]

fee.org

BBC: Sweden’s Economy Is Doing Way Better Than the Rest of the EU During the COVID-19 Pandemic | Jon Miltimore
Jon Miltimore

6-8 minutes


In July, The New York Times claimed that Sweden had made a grave mistake by not imposing a government lockdown as other nations did.
“[Sweden’s] decision to carry on in the face of the pandemic has yielded a surge of deaths without sparing its economy from damage — a red flag as the United States and Britain move to lift lockdowns,” the Grey Lady reported.
Similar claims were made by numerous other media outlets, including Politico and Financial Times, which stated Sweden was “unlikely to feel economic benefit” of its no-lockdown approach.
The drumbeat from the press presented a clear message: Sweden would suffer the same economic turmoil as everyone else despite its dangerous laissez-faire approach to COVID-19.
Preliminary data for the EU’s second quarter are telling a different story, the BBC recently observed.
While Europe plunged into a deep recession, Sweden did not.
In contrast to other European nations, Sweden’s economy actually grew slightly in the first quarter; and while second quarter results are less positive, they also nevertheless show that Sweden is an economic outlier.
While no nation has emerged unscathed from the coronavirus crisis, which has resulted in hundreds of millions of job losses and millions of business closures following widespread government-imposed shutdowns, data show the Swedish economy has been hit much less than the rest of Europe.

Legacy media have repeatedly reported that Sweden is not escaping the economic carnage brought by #COVID19 even though it didn't lockdown.
That's true.
But it's also true that #Sweden has suffered far less economic damage than other European nations. pic.twitter.com/YPTiJIymBr
— Jon Miltimore (Parler: @Miltimore79) (@miltimore79) August 10, 2020

While Sweden saw a historic economic contraction in the second quarter, the 8.6 percent decline was less than half that of the United Kingdom (-19.1 percent) and Spain (-18.5). By the way, Sweden has also suffered fewer COVID-19 deaths per capita than both Spain and the UK, even though both Spain and the UK had strict government lockdowns.
Sweden’s GDP drop is also far milder than nations such as Portugal (-14.1 percent), France (-13.8 percent), Belgium (-12.2 percent), and Italy (-12.4 percent), and even tops Germany (-10.1 percent), one of Europe’s COVID-19 success stories.
Overall, the EU saw an 11.9 percent GDP drop in the second quarter, about 40 percent higher than that of Sweden.
"It is, as expected, a dramatic downturn,” Nordea bank chief analyst Torbjorn Isaksson told the BBC. “But compared to other countries, [Sweden’s economy] is considerably better, for instance, if you compare to southern Europe."

For months, critics of Sweden’s strategy had claimed the Swedes’ softer approach was for naught. Despite its policies of encouraging social distancing mostly through voluntary action, projections still showed the nation’s GDP was expected to decline 7-10 percent in 2020.
Of course it was never a question if Sweden’s economy would suffer. It’s a nation heavily dependent on exports, and a decrease in global demand was going to lead to economic fallout regardless of what Swedish leaders did. The question was how much would its economy be harmed.
Two quarters of data have emerged now, and it’s clear that Sweden’s “lighter touch” policies have resulted in far less economic damage than its European counterparts.
Indeed, a recent report from Capital Economics, an economic research firm based in London, concludes that Sweden’s economy is the least damaged in Europe, the "best of a bad bunch.
"The Swedish economy has weathered Covid well, thanks in part to the government's light-touch lockdown, and our forecast of a 1.5% drop in GDP this year is well above consensus," wrote economists Andrew Kenningham, David Oxley, and Melanie Debono.
A 1.5 percent annual decline is far more optimistic than what analysts predicted months ago and better than what most analysts today believe, but Sweden’s economy has been outperforming expectations since its strategy was announced.
GDP is only half the story, however. Perhaps more importantly, Sweden’s strategy has shown human society can still function in the presence of the coronavirus, despite the apocalyptic warnings from modelers and media.
While modelers predicted 96,000 Swedes would die by July as a result of its policy, as of mid-August the figure stands at less than 5,800, a higher per capita total than neighbors such as Finland, Norway, and Denmark but superior to Belgium, Italy, and others. COVID-19 case numbers continue to fall. Deaths and hospitalizations have flatlined, and reports indicate Stockholm is on the verge of herd immunity.
It increasingly appears that Sweden, the maligned outlier, got the virus right.
Instead of ordering humans confined in their homes, Swedes allowed schools to remain open and groups to congregate in parks, pools, restaurants, and bars. Not only did Sweden avoid much of the economic carnage and the unintended social consequences of lockdowns—increases in drug overdoses, domestic abuse, suicide, and social unrest—their strategy appears to have tamed the virus, unlike so many other nations around the globe who are seeing new waves of COVID-19.
Many experts may be loath to admit it, but Sweden’s strategy increasingly appears to be both economically sound and scientifically sound.
“The pandemic will not be over until we reach herd immunity, either through a vaccine or through natural infections,” Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School, recently wrote in The Spectator. “Herd immunity is not a strategy but a proven scientific phenomenon, and to deny that is as silly as denying gravity.”
That is a debate for the virologists, however. The economics are more clear.
Despite media headlines to the contrary, there was little doubt that Sweden’s economy would be less damaged in the absence of lockdowns. Economic prosperity depends on laissez-faire, and lockdowns are the antithesis of the idea, which literally means “allow to do.”
A few months ago, the entrepreneur Elon Musk pointed out a basic lockdown reality.
“If you don’t make stuff, there’s no stuff,” the Tesla founder told Joe Rogan.
By not initiating a lockdown, Sweden was able to make “more stuff,” which essentially is what GDP comes down to: more stuff.
Sweden, a relatively free market economy that often is mischaracterized as socialist country, has done the world a service by showing laissez-faire works both for public health and economic growth.
America and other countries seeking to rebound from the pandemic would do well to pay attention.