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Budget For Crisis of Confidence

silverfox@

Alfrescian
Loyal
A: I give you an egg.
B: Why the egg so small?

A: I don't think I should give you an egg.
B: nb, why aren't you giving me any egg?

A: I give you a big egg.
B: You give me a big egg also no point.

A: I give you many eggs.
B: You should have fuckin done that long ago.

A: I give you these eggs.
B: Excuse me, these eggs are supposed to be mine, not yours.

A: I give you this tasty egg.
B: eh Hello, how come inside got a bone?


:p
Just to lighten up the mood before the budget comes
 

ahpong

Alfrescian
Loyal
About 80% of commercial and industrial land is owned and leased out either by the government via HDB, JTC or GLCs. In search of highest rent and competing among themselves to show "good results", they have really over done it in the rat race of increasing rent.

Surely the gov had the ability to influence rent. Like property prices,which shot up after gov liberalise hdb resale loans. phang sock yong presented a paper on this, and was hantam by hairdo lim. of course they won't admit it. similarly the sale of hdb shophouses, hawker stalls etc led to the same results. in fact, privatisation is a licence to increase prices, though the owner of the 'private' company is still the government.
 

Goh Meng Seng

Alfrescian (InfP) [Comp]
Generous Asset
I think the high wage policy is sound. I remembered when Dr Goh delivered the National Day message in TV (covering LKY), he stared at the audience and told us to automate, computerise etc because labour cost is going up. That started the civil service computerisation programme (where philip yeo and tan chin nam & Co. shot into fame). I think the problem is they implement it blindly in their ivory tower. They didn't realise that the outside world is suffering because of the imminent recession and happily raise wages and CPF year after year. Then they blamed the messenger (DOS) for failing to inform them, and overturn the whole statistical system.

In a way, the level of wage is really relative. When there is a potential gain in productivity by means of technological advances or process improvement, increasing wage will help to expedite the implementation of such value add processes.

The common flaw argument is that raising will reduce profitable or productivity. This flaw argument is based on static view of productivity growth, without putting much consideration into technological process advancement.

But for the past decade, real wage has been kept stagnant. Some may think it is good but the impact is that processes are left stagnant and productivity growth are not enhanced by investment in improvement to processes of work.

There must be a certain balance to be maintained.

Rental hikes is definitely not justifiable for all these years. Rental hikes will not only affect business cost but it actually gives the wrong signals to developers in developing more projects. In the end, there is an acute competition of resources, pushing up building cost. This was what Singapore experienced in 2006, 2007 and 2008. It creates speculative investment and consumption of housing, properties as well as commercial property investment.

After such projects are built with high cost, there will be a sticky pricing upwards for these projects when they are completed. It would mean that rental will be maintained at high level even during doom time.

Goh Meng Seng
 

Goh Meng Seng

Alfrescian (InfP) [Comp]
Generous Asset
So far, from the announced budget, although it has certain variations, but in general, the direction is pretty close to what I have here.

Goh Meng Seng
 

yibrai

Alfrescian
Loyal
all the CNA guests praised the budget.
as expected.
Alas, there is no opposition people interviewed and there is so few opposition members in parl.
what have they said in response to the speech?
would they utter anything?
 

Goh Meng Seng

Alfrescian (InfP) [Comp]
Generous Asset
all the CNA guests praised the budget.
as expected.
Alas, there is no opposition people interviewed and there is so few opposition members in parl.
what have they said in response to the speech?
would they utter anything?

What to do? :wink:

The total amount of the package is just too little. Tax cut is unnecessary right now, it should seriously look into setting up unemployment benefits in expectation of 5% to 6% unemployment rate.

Goh Meng Seng
 

scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
I think the high wage policy is sound. I remembered when Dr Goh delivered the National Day message in TV (covering LKY), he stared at the audience and told us to automate, computerise etc because labour cost is going up. That started the civil service computerisation programme (where philip yeo and tan chin nam & Co. shot into fame). I think the problem is they implement it blindly in their ivory tower. They didn't realise that the outside world is suffering because of the imminent recession and happily raise wages and CPF year after year. Then they blamed the messenger (DOS) for failing to inform them, and overturn the whole statistical system.
You seemed to be well informed. I do agree with you. Just look at the empirical evidence from developed countries. It cannot be by fluke that they ended being developed.

Its no different to new oil wells in difficult terrain coming online when price of oil passes a certain price.

In Australia, one person drives a prime loader full of bricks with a forklift at the rear to deliver and unload bricks at building sites. In Singapore, there will be 3 at least.

So we end up with 4.68M people and the country is bursting at the seams.
 

scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
Surely the gov had the ability to influence rent. Like property prices,which shot up after gov liberalise hdb resale loans. phang sock yong presented a paper on this, and was hantam by hairdo lim. of course they won't admit it. similarly the sale of hdb shophouses, hawker stalls etc led to the same results. in fact, privatisation is a licence to increase prices, though the owner of the 'private' company is still the government.

Many years it was said that the Rental Control Act kept the PAP in power. When it was abolished, developers began courting the ruling party. The lobby group is significant. A PAP MP ended up leading it until it became quite hairy and GCT had to issue a warning. It continues to be major player in the politics of Singapore.

There are 3 things that this Govt can control that no other Govt can - the Sing Dollar, Property values and the Stock market. The first is due to their large reserves and the relative small economy, the 2nd and 3rd is due to the dominant stake in both sectors via GLCs

Looks like policy and Strategy are not working as it should.
 

lockeliberal

Alfrescian
Loyal
Dear Scroobal

I would say that high rent and high costs are part and parcel of a high wage economy or a developed economy especially one where financial services are a major component. Just take London Tokyo New York etc as examples.

The PAP is a direct beneficiary of high land prices as are developers but then so are the developers in HK. Furthermore everything in HK is I believe is lease hold and not free hold .

The essential question is not one of high rents but the balance between high rents , high land costs and the wages the economy pays.



Locke
 

The_Latest_H

Alfrescian
Loyal
The essential question is not one of high rents but the balance between high rents , high land costs and the wages the economy pays.

Well, as long as the Government doesn't lower rental rates, reduce speculation of land costs, its no wonder businesses have to charge higher prices in a bid to reduce costs. But higher prices, obviously, do affect sales, and that's why there's a high turnover rate in the small business sector.

In Australia, there have been cuts in corporate taxes, capital gains and what more for the small business sector. In addition, the government has had passed regulation laws to cap on rental rates. That's why small business growth is good in Australia throughout the Howard years. And that's why even the Rudd government has given out more tax breaks to small businesses and increased infrastructure spending.
 

The_Latest_H

Alfrescian
Loyal
all the CNA guests praised the budget.
as expected.
Alas, there is no opposition people interviewed and there is so few opposition members in parl.
what have they said in response to the speech?
would they utter anything?

1. I think the Budget was too late. They let things go on as it is until now. Other countries had passed an emergency stimulus package from September 2008 in a bid to shore up the economy and to restore confidence, internally and externally.

This meant that while other people in other countries got their cheques early, and saw more infrastructure(and more home insulation being installed) being built, our government has effectively sat on their hands and let the 4th quarter crash into a -12% recession.

Its symbiotic because the government is ran by an 85 year old, who probably doesn't know this recession, if left unchecked, could be become just marginally off the levels of the Great Depression. It could be he still doesn't believe that the recession would fix itself by the end of 2007.

2. We don't know if the current stimulus package is politicised till the point where most of the money becomes pork and goes to those who have supported the PAP openly. Money should go to everyone including those who have not voted the PAP in past elections- this is because everyone has to spend a bit and save a bit to keep the economy above the water. But if its given to the rich and the well connected, then this money wouldn't be returned to the local economy; let's put it in this way: if another civil servant brings his sons and daughters to spend a free $50k rebate on classes with Jamie Oliver in London, UK, then obviously Singapore and its people wouldn't benefit.

The same goes for any child who don't receive education bursaries for local studies at home, but for a Supergrade civil servant's NSF son to disrupt his NS to go to MIT for his uni course.

The same goes for infrastructure: building a handicapped ramp in a poor estate has more impact than say building a 5 storey car park in a well developed, but not a well populated one that has already 6 of these, and which all remains pretty empty.

3. Not enough has been given to those who need the most- even if there is, is it enough? The government is known for its switch-and-bait and/or delaying tactics- making sure that when people receive $500 in tax rebates, the people will end up paying maybe 5x more when they increase living costs, rental, utilities as such. If not they will insist that the people have to put in a precious $100 into your CPF to receive $1000 in CPF funds- which you can't take out.

And then there's the bureaucratic waste when you have to apply for bursaries and such. With a country which is so technologically equipped, compared to the US, and Australia, surely through the income tax submissions, the government should have each and everyone of us in their data, knowing how much we earn and how much do we pay(or not) in income taxes...and in other form of taxes? Then why insist everyone has to apply to see if they're legally able to do so? That only delays time and time is money. If everything is computerised as they insist they are, then spare people, especially old and uneducated ones, from these paperwork, and directly use these computerised data as a way to source out those who need the cheques, job training etc and those who are not or cannot. It saves a ton of trouble, gets money into people's pockets faster, and reduces the chances of the process being politicised.
 

Goh Meng Seng

Alfrescian (InfP) [Comp]
Generous Asset
Generally speaking, the Budget announced by Finance Minister Tharman is set on the right footing.

As I have mentioned in my the other post "Budget for Crisis of Confidence", the focus of this budget should address the fundamental problem of confidence. Tharman's budget has generally seeked to address this fundamental problem.

However, the size of the budget or even the "intended deficits" (well, you will never know how PAP government will turn it into surplus in the end!) is very small, comparing to the huge amount of money GIC and Temasek have thrown into foreign banks and lost. Besides, the kind of PAP accounting of budget does not include land sales as part of budget revenue and such small deficit of $4.6B is could well be covered by the surpluses that Singapore has gained from the past two years (which has been estimated to be $60B including land sales by some local economist).

$20.5B "Resilience Package" may sound big at first glance but it is just about 8.6% of GDP. Whether such package could negate the impact of a global melt down or re-ignite the engine of the economy is pretty doubtful. Whether it could maintain consumers' as well as investors/banks confidence is yet to be seen.

I was expecting a much bigger package. And interesting enough, we now know the full potential of the PAP government's fiscal strength. Even though with a relatively "big" additional budget of $20.5B, it only incurs a deficit of $4.9B which I believe is a very conservative estimate. The ultimate deficit may be much lesser or we may even end up with a balanced budget eventually. The total budget is about $66B (refer to budget estimate). A "normal" typical budget is about $33B which will normally give a surplus without even taking revenue from land sales into account. And yet, they are pretty stingy on Healthcare subsidies while spending the most on Defence ($3.7B in Health Ministry vs $11B in Defence) which is almost 3 times of Healthcare expenditure.

It means that the actual real surpluses from other years are very much higher than what is being reported. The potential fiscal strength of the whole government is more than $60B. This is a simple rough estimate from the fact that even with a total expenditure of $66B with an expected lower revenue, the deficit is still maintained at $4.9B! Thus it seems that the realized budget surpluses for past year could well be more than $30B per year in good time! Thus the estimate by the local economist that PAP government might have accumulated more than $60B for the past 2 years could well be true! And thus, a $4.9B deficit which is to be financed by drawing down from the reserve is really small in such comparison.

The PAP government could do more in times like this one. We are facing most probably the worst financial and economic crisis for the whole of last century up till now. But yet the PAP government refused to see the urgent need of implementing a more comprehensive social welfare system with unemployment benefits despite the fact that we are expecting an unemployment rate of more than 5% in the months ahead!

More could be done to help Singaporeans to face the imminent hardship ahead. While the idea of Job Credit is pretty close to what I have suggested as subsidizing employer's contribution to employee's CPF, but I don't know the reason why they put a cap of 12% of $2500. For those who could earn well above $2500 to $5000, they are most probably middle management level. Does it mean that they do not need help for companies to keep them on the job? This is why I feel that a 5% subsidized CPF contribution would be a fairer system. Furthermore, the proposed system of handling cash to employers will bound to be abused. Administratively, it is easier to manage to credit into CPF.

There are many redundant taxes like TV License should be removed as well. To maintain economic activities within the system, an additional $5B expenditure in infrastructure is really inadequate in times like this.

Although the increase of the expenditure of Ministry of Health looks impressive, with 34% increase, but from the details, we could still expect the cost of healthcare is going to stay at a very high level. Most of this increase in expenditure goes to direct development. Operating grants has in fact, dropped in this budget! Healthcare cost is always a big concern for Singaporeans and it will be especially so in such time of extraordinary difficulties.

Last but not least, the question of restoration of investors'confidence in the fund investment has not been tackled. The mis-selling of credit-linked financial products are not addressed at all in this budget. If this issue is not solved politically, it will really take decades for retail investors to regain their confidence in investing their hard earned money in any financial products.

In conclusion, although the specific steps taken by Minister Tharman have generally gone into the right direction (except for the tax cut and rebates) but I think the extend of the budgeted amount is not going to be big enough to withstand the onslaught of the crisis of confidence as well as the expected huge unemployment we are going to face in the short future.

Goh Meng Seng
Posted by Goh Meng Seng at 12:24 AM 2 comments
Labels: Budget, Government, Healthcare, Policy Views
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Hong Kong: 新鴻基願回購雷曼迷債
One of the Hong Kong Investment Institution has agreed to buy back all Lehman Brothers Minibond at the original price after the investigation by the authority that it has a systematic problem in mis-selling Lehman Brothers Minibonds.

Goh Meng Seng:
 

funglung

Alfrescian
Loyal
Just remember that LKY is a regime and not a government

You cannot expect anything from those bastards who are only good at telling lies to you and grabbing money for themselves.

VOTE OUT LKY AND ALL HIS GREEDY STINKING DOGS

THAT IS THE ONLY WAY TO GET US OUT OF RECESSION
 
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