Serious AsiaDK Weekend Article: Unemployment to increase by at least another percent in 2017

[AsiaDK]

Over 10,000 local commercial-vehicle drivers risk losing their jobs in 2017 as a result of our COE system, which equates to appx 1% of our local workforce

According to estimates, the COE of almost 18,000 to 22,000 CAT-C Vehicles are due in 2017.

• Part 1: Of which, about 6,000-8,000 of them are reaching their 10th year on our roads
• Part 2: Another 10,000-15,000 are reaching their 18-20th year on the road (renewed COE)
• Part 3: Unless additional quota increment is announced, the CAT-C COE quota increment in 2017 is estimated to be about about 3000-5000.

Most of these vehicles are enjoying older COE prices between $1000 to $15000. Buying a new mini-truck cost about $100K now vs $40-50K 10-15years ago.

 

[AsiaDK]

Re: AsiaDK Weekend Article: Unemployment to increase by at least another percent in 2

Assuming the most optimistic situation,
Part 1: 50% of the them renewed COE (4000)
Part 2&3: CAT-C COE increased by 5000 and just 5000 vehicles reaching their 20th year were taken off our roads

About 7000-10000 commercial vehicles will disappear from Sg roads if LTA does not significantly increase the CAT C quota in the remaining months of 2017.

However, COEs for scrapped vehicles will not be immediately released back to the quota because LTA is also unsure how many in Part 1 will renew their COE. Imagine LTA increases quota significantly in anticipation of this situation, it will crash the COE prices and a significantly lower COE will result in almost all Part 1 vehicles to be renewed. In the end, we have a massive growth in CAT-C vehicles on the road.

Conclusion: We see this coming but technically LTA dare not pre-empt the measures to mitigate the impact.

 

[mojito]

Re: AsiaDK Weekend Article: Unemployment to increase by at least another percent in 2

Thank you good sir. Source?

 

[AsiaDK]

Re: AsiaDK Weekend Article: Unemployment to increase by at least another percent in 2

Now, let's assume LTA behaves normally and does now increase the 2017 quota significantly to bail out Part-2 because they risk seeing most Part-1 vehicles being renewed. There will be a bottleneck in 2017 but things will go back to equilibrium by mid-2018

But imagine you are an employer, what will you do with the 10000 drivers who don't have a vehicle in 2017. Re-deploy them to warehouse for a year until COE quota and price is at equilibrium level in 2018?

Ok imagine you are a driver being deployed to warehouse, will you rather quit? Then become a Taxi, Uber or Grab driver? There are already passenger-vehicle professionals on the road who lost their earlier jobs or sought to enjoy the flexibility of the job. The timing is bad because this sector is now saturated and Grab is likely to put another 3000 Vezels on our roads in 2017/18 which will further erode the earnings for drivers in the long-run.

There is still time, LTA should act now.

 

[AsiaDK]

Re: AsiaDK Weekend Article: Unemployment to increase by at least another percent in 2

Thank you good sir. Source?

Reference data: http://www.straitstimes.com/singapo...icles-due-to-be-scrapped-in-the-first-quarter

 

[AsiaDK]

Re: AsiaDK Weekend Article: Unemployment to increase by at least another percent in 2

 

[chootchiew]

Re: AsiaDK Weekend Article: Unemployment to increase by at least another percent in 2

Sometime I wonder how the small business & delivery companies make money as the cost of the vehicles and operating cost is so high in sg.

 

[retrenched]

Re: AsiaDK Weekend Article: Unemployment to increase by at least another percent in 2

Sometime I wonder how the small business & delivery companies make money as the cost of the vehicles and operating cost is so high in sg.

squeeze the foreign labour...

 

[chootchiew]

Re: AsiaDK Weekend Article: Unemployment to increase by at least another percent in 2

squeeze the foreign labour...

So the foreign labour knows pap causes it so they flip mata chia instead of their boss lorry.
Sir johntan is lucky that the foreign labour knows who is right and who is wrong and who is the innocent party

 

[frenchbriefs]

Re: AsiaDK Weekend Article: Unemployment to increase by at least another percent in 2

its ok,now private cars and vehicles can now double as public transportation service for UBER and Grab and food and goods delivery service for Redmart and foodpanda,this will take some strain off the system.now all we gotta do is increase the number of motorbike licenses so more malaysians can work in sg.

everybody come boogie with me and Earth,Wind and Fire.we having a chocolate soul train party.somebody drizzle that willy wonka chocolate hot sauce all over my horny titties.we are going to COE town!!!!

[video=youtube;god7hAPv8f0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=god7hAPv8f0[/video]

 

[kkbutterfly]

Re: AsiaDK Weekend Article: Unemployment to increase by at least another percent in 2

Sometime I wonder how the small business & delivery companies make money as the cost of the vehicles and operating cost is so high in sg.

this I know.
most of this small courier company employ 1/3 regulars drivers and 2/3 freelanced driver with their own vans.
the freelancers will be paid $1.5 to $7 per parcel.
diesel, parking, summon and time will all to be paid by freelancer.
90% of the freelancers use company vans(etc pest control) to earn extra both office hour and after office hour(for those who can drive back)