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An armed conflict in Taiwan Straits is the most urgent geopolitical threat in 2H25.
With emerging social unrests, severe economic-slowdown and persistent shake-ups in Chinese military, it will be beneficial for the Chinese government to escalate tensions in Taiwan Straits between Sept - Dec of 2025; the hurricane season is largely over by China's National Day on October 1st.
Modern China has a long history of using external conflicts to consolidate powers within the government when the nation was in mess. Mao Zedong sent redundant troops and hungry orphans to participate in the Korean War and Deng Xiaoping invaded former ally Vietnam to consolidate his powers.
The current Chinese leadership and regime is in a precarious and weak state domestically. Amidst the meltdown in local real estate prices and surging youth unemployment, the Chinese leaders badly need an external conflict to shore up domestic support. It can be as simple as an takeover of Taiwan's Kinmen Islands that are just a few kilometers from China Mainland or slightly further Mazu Islands to consolidate their grip on Taiwan Straits.
Photo: Kinmen Coastal Defense
Moreover, President Trump is certainly lukewarm towards participating in external conflicts.
Such calculated move, inspired by Russia's annexation of Crimea, would be ideal and highly unlikely to trigger a full-scale battle with United States from the opposite end of Pacific Ocean. Doing so, will also serve as a good gauge before implementing further invasion plans.
In all fairness, the core objective is just to score a win (eg. Kinmen, Mazu) and no Chinese leader will really want to jeopardize their throne to take over the whole Taiwan.
With emerging social unrests, severe economic-slowdown and persistent shake-ups in Chinese military, it will be beneficial for the Chinese government to escalate tensions in Taiwan Straits between Sept - Dec of 2025; the hurricane season is largely over by China's National Day on October 1st.
Modern China has a long history of using external conflicts to consolidate powers within the government when the nation was in mess. Mao Zedong sent redundant troops and hungry orphans to participate in the Korean War and Deng Xiaoping invaded former ally Vietnam to consolidate his powers.
The current Chinese leadership and regime is in a precarious and weak state domestically. Amidst the meltdown in local real estate prices and surging youth unemployment, the Chinese leaders badly need an external conflict to shore up domestic support. It can be as simple as an takeover of Taiwan's Kinmen Islands that are just a few kilometers from China Mainland or slightly further Mazu Islands to consolidate their grip on Taiwan Straits.
Photo: Kinmen Coastal Defense
Moreover, President Trump is certainly lukewarm towards participating in external conflicts.
Such calculated move, inspired by Russia's annexation of Crimea, would be ideal and highly unlikely to trigger a full-scale battle with United States from the opposite end of Pacific Ocean. Doing so, will also serve as a good gauge before implementing further invasion plans.
In all fairness, the core objective is just to score a win (eg. Kinmen, Mazu) and no Chinese leader will really want to jeopardize their throne to take over the whole Taiwan.
