https://indianexpress.com/article/e...-defence-minister-li-shangfu-missing-8936583/
With Chinese Defence Minister Li Shangfu not spotted publicly in the past two weeks, and a recent statement from President Xi Jinping about the need for “unity” within the military, speculations have been raised over Li’s possible removal, reported Bloomberg.
On September 9, Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke about maintaining a “high level of integrity and unity of the armed forces, and ensuring the military stays stable and secure” during a visit to a military group in northern China, reported the state media agency Xinhua.
Speculations have been heightened after comments from Rahm Emanuel, the US Ambassador in Japan. He said in a September 8 post on X, “President Xi’s cabinet lineup is now resembling Agatha Christie’s novel And Then There Were None. First, Foreign Minister Qin Gang goes missing, then the Rocket Force commanders go missing, and now Defense Minister Li Shangfu hasn’t been seen in public for two weeks. Who’s going to win this unemployment race? China’s youth or Xi’s cabinet? #MysteryInBeijingBuilding”
Who is Li Shangfu?
Li Shangfu joined the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in August 1982 and holds a Doctor of Engineering degree. He is also a member of the party’s current Central Committee, a grouping of the top leaders.According to an article in The Diplomat, published when Li was speculated to be elevated to the Ministerial post in March 2023, his father was a top PLA railway force general. It added, “Li is unique in his experience in both space operations and acquisition.” He was also under US sanctions for China’s purchase of Russian missile systems.
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Bloomberg said in its report that his last public appearance was on August 29, when he delivered a keynote speech at the 3rd China-Africa Peace and Security Forum in Beijing.
What has happened in China of late and who is Qin Gang?
The claims of Li’s disappearance have gained traction also because of the events preceding it in China, alluded to in Emanuel’s post.Firstly, he mentioned Qin Gang. The then Foreign Affairs Minister had assumed the post in December 2022. He had not been seen in public for almost a month, beginning June 25, 2023. Qin had been giving international meetings and trips a miss as well, and on July 25, he was replaced by Wang Yi as the new minister. A media release announcing this provided no information on Qin, or why the change happened. Since then, Qin has not been seen. Before these events, Qin was known to be close to President Xi and this was cited as a possible factor in his quick rise to a senior position.
For more on some other well-known Chinese personalities who disappeared from public view, read our explainer from July here.
What about the Rocket Force Commanders?
In China, the country’s President is the head of the Communist Party (officially, the General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China), the head of the military (or the Central Military Commission Chairman) of China and the head of State.
As Major General (retd) Prof GG Dwivedi wrote in The Indian Express in 2020, “It is customary for a nation to have an army but extremely rare for a political party to have one. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is an exception, as it owes allegiance to the Communist Party of China (CPC).”
On July 21, it was made official that Xi had signed on the promotion of two rocket force commanders. The force is in charge of the PLA’s land-based nuclear and conventional ballistic missiles. Wang Houbin and political commissar Xu Xisheng were made generals, which is the highest rank for officers in active service in China.
But it omitted mention of the previous commanders of the force – General Liu Guangbin and General Li Yuchano. A week later, the South China Morning Post reported that this “purge” or forced removal was part of a new anti-corruption drive. The report added, “As well as its role in the country’s nuclear deterrent, the rocket force is also an important element in Beijing’s efforts to ramp up the military pressure on Taiwan.”
The Bloomberg report also said, “China’s military also launched an inquiry into corruption cases linked to hardware procurement going back more than five years in July. The PLA’s Equipment Development Department listed eight issues it was looking into, including “leaking information on projects and army units” and helping certain companies secure bids.” Whether the two generals are accused in such an inquiry is unknown at the moment.
How have these events been seen by analysts?
The changes have followed Xi Jinping’s confirmation as the Party President for a third term. This was done in October 2022, at the Communist Party’s 20th National Congress, where Xi ignored the norms in place for retirement and term limits.
