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2018 expectations?
- Thread starter yinyang
- Start date
May trump start humping fatty kim.
The Fortune's crystal ball looking into 2018. 59 predictions, who's wiser?
1. Trump’s Triumph, and the EU’s Crisis
In the year ahead, India’s economy will climb, Britain’s delicate Brexit negotiations are likely to derail,
and the U.S. will see a pivotal election.
Illustration by Sam Peet for Fortune
Dems win the popular vote, but still can’t retake congress
Democrats will have the numbers in the 2018 midterm election, but we predict it won’t be enough for them to take the House. Urban clustering (and gerrymandering) favors Republicans so heavily that not even a presidential approval rating below 40% will be enough to put Nancy Pelosi back in the House Speaker’s seat. The Senate, meanwhile, is an even longer bet.
Brexit chaos brings down Theresa May
A snowballing sexual harassment scandal in Parliament and divisions over Brexit will coalesce into a force strong enough to bring down Theresa May’s government. The Labour Party’s Jeremy Corbyn will become U.K. Prime Minister and will try to complete Brexit negotiations with the EU (hoping to create a socialist paradise outside the “neoliberal” EU’s Single Market). The foreign exchange and bond markets will push back, hard.
EU antitrust suits keep rolling
The European Union will levy another heavy fine on Google for abuse of its dominance of the Android system. It will also reject the tech giant’s proposed fixes in its other ongoing case over rigging shopping results. Look for Bing to make inroads.
The EU weathers more attacks from within
The most likely outcome of Italy’s early 2018 election is a coalition between the centrist Democratic Party and Forza Italia. But the Eurosceptic Five Star Movement is also polling well. Its populist leader, 31-year-old Luigi Di Maio, wants to ditch many EU rules (or pull out entirely). Meanwhile, Catalonian separatist leader Carles Puigdemont will be convicted of rebellion by Spanish court
1. Trump’s Triumph, and the EU’s Crisis
In the year ahead, India’s economy will climb, Britain’s delicate Brexit negotiations are likely to derail,
and the U.S. will see a pivotal election.
Illustration by Sam Peet for Fortune
Dems win the popular vote, but still can’t retake congress
Democrats will have the numbers in the 2018 midterm election, but we predict it won’t be enough for them to take the House. Urban clustering (and gerrymandering) favors Republicans so heavily that not even a presidential approval rating below 40% will be enough to put Nancy Pelosi back in the House Speaker’s seat. The Senate, meanwhile, is an even longer bet.
Brexit chaos brings down Theresa May
A snowballing sexual harassment scandal in Parliament and divisions over Brexit will coalesce into a force strong enough to bring down Theresa May’s government. The Labour Party’s Jeremy Corbyn will become U.K. Prime Minister and will try to complete Brexit negotiations with the EU (hoping to create a socialist paradise outside the “neoliberal” EU’s Single Market). The foreign exchange and bond markets will push back, hard.
EU antitrust suits keep rolling
The European Union will levy another heavy fine on Google for abuse of its dominance of the Android system. It will also reject the tech giant’s proposed fixes in its other ongoing case over rigging shopping results. Look for Bing to make inroads.
The EU weathers more attacks from within
The most likely outcome of Italy’s early 2018 election is a coalition between the centrist Democratic Party and Forza Italia. But the Eurosceptic Five Star Movement is also polling well. Its populist leader, 31-year-old Luigi Di Maio, wants to ditch many EU rules (or pull out entirely). Meanwhile, Catalonian separatist leader Carles Puigdemont will be convicted of rebellion by Spanish court
India surges
The world economy should grow modestly in 2018, but India will boom. After 7.1% growth in 2016 and a projected 6.7% uptick in 2017, the Indian economy is expected to balloon 7.4% next year, thanks in part to its demonetization reforms starting to bear fruit. (China, by contrast, is expected to grow 6.5%.) While economic risks linger and more reforms are needed, India will be the fastest-growing major economy the IMF tracks.
Tax Reform Passes …but GDP doesn’t hit 3%
President Trump and the GOP-led Congress are able to enact some corporate tax reforms, but find that tax cuts alone can’t quickly compensate for an aging population and an underskilled middle class. GDP grows by 2.5% for the year.
2.25%: The federal funds rate at the end of 2018
Yuge economic growth remains elusive, but continued low unemployment puts enough upward pressure on wages and prices to prompt more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, led by new chairman Jerome Powell. The Fed’s benchmark rate rises above 2% for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis.
Chart shows projected home prices in the U.S. through 2022
Home Prices (Barely) Rise
Zillow asked more than 100 economists and real estate experts where they thought home prices would wind up next year. The average answer? Up—but not by as much as in 2017.
The world economy should grow modestly in 2018, but India will boom. After 7.1% growth in 2016 and a projected 6.7% uptick in 2017, the Indian economy is expected to balloon 7.4% next year, thanks in part to its demonetization reforms starting to bear fruit. (China, by contrast, is expected to grow 6.5%.) While economic risks linger and more reforms are needed, India will be the fastest-growing major economy the IMF tracks.
Tax Reform Passes …but GDP doesn’t hit 3%
President Trump and the GOP-led Congress are able to enact some corporate tax reforms, but find that tax cuts alone can’t quickly compensate for an aging population and an underskilled middle class. GDP grows by 2.5% for the year.
2.25%: The federal funds rate at the end of 2018
Yuge economic growth remains elusive, but continued low unemployment puts enough upward pressure on wages and prices to prompt more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, led by new chairman Jerome Powell. The Fed’s benchmark rate rises above 2% for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis.
Chart shows projected home prices in the U.S. through 2022
Home Prices (Barely) Rise
Zillow asked more than 100 economists and real estate experts where they thought home prices would wind up next year. The average answer? Up—but not by as much as in 2017.
The odds
Saudi political turmoil and the occasional disruptive summer storm will make the price of crude fluctuate plenty in 2018. But U.S. shale oil will keep the domestic supply flowing, putting an expiration date on any price spikes. No need to pawn the SUV just yet.
The U.S. IPO market jumps to life again
Last year was particularly weak for domestic IPO proceeds, at just $16.2 billion. That ticked up to a projected $39.7 billion this year, and—according to global law firm Baker McKenzie—will hit $70.9 billion in 2018. Investors will thank a robust stock market and tech companies for the boost.
Chart shows projected size of U,S, IPOs through 2020
Nic Rapp
- Long shot: Mark Zuckerberg will personally fact-check Facebook posts related to the 2018 election and learn Russian to sniff out any interference.
- Slam dunk: Russian President Vladimir Putin wins reelection in March.
Saudi political turmoil and the occasional disruptive summer storm will make the price of crude fluctuate plenty in 2018. But U.S. shale oil will keep the domestic supply flowing, putting an expiration date on any price spikes. No need to pawn the SUV just yet.
The U.S. IPO market jumps to life again
Last year was particularly weak for domestic IPO proceeds, at just $16.2 billion. That ticked up to a projected $39.7 billion this year, and—according to global law firm Baker McKenzie—will hit $70.9 billion in 2018. Investors will thank a robust stock market and tech companies for the boost.
Chart shows projected size of U,S, IPOs through 2020
Nic Rapp
3. Planes, Trains, and Cars That Fly
Next year will see breakthroughs in zero-emissions vehicles that could help save the planet—and rockets that may one day help us escape it.
Illustration by Sam Peet for Fortune
Autonomous cars start killing a lot of deer
So far, driverless cars have a (mostly) clean record cruising the orderly streets of Singapore, Arizona, and Ann Arbor. But as hundreds more hit the road next year, accidents are inevitable. Blind spots? Kangaroos, deer, and bicyclists.
Geopolitical intrigue stymies the hyperloop
As more companies set their sights on a Hyperloop transit system, they’re finding that several of the most promising spots—with the most space to build and the deepest pockets for budgeting—are in politically fraught sections of the Middle East. Engineering is easy compared with the complexities of regional geopolitics.
Tesla takes off
Uber is building a flying-taxi pilot program in L.A., and the hovercraft-maker Kitty Hawk, backed by Alphabet CEO Larry Page, is working on consumer transports. Our bet: In 2018, Tesla CEO and mobility futurist Elon Musk joins the sky-race with
an aeronautic venture of his own.
All-electric car sales near 1 million next year
Even if Washington is resistant to paving the way, global sales of all-electric cars will surge 70% in 2018, up from 580,000 this year, according to LMC Automotive.
The odds
Next year will see breakthroughs in zero-emissions vehicles that could help save the planet—and rockets that may one day help us escape it.
Illustration by Sam Peet for Fortune
Autonomous cars start killing a lot of deer
So far, driverless cars have a (mostly) clean record cruising the orderly streets of Singapore, Arizona, and Ann Arbor. But as hundreds more hit the road next year, accidents are inevitable. Blind spots? Kangaroos, deer, and bicyclists.
Geopolitical intrigue stymies the hyperloop
As more companies set their sights on a Hyperloop transit system, they’re finding that several of the most promising spots—with the most space to build and the deepest pockets for budgeting—are in politically fraught sections of the Middle East. Engineering is easy compared with the complexities of regional geopolitics.
Tesla takes off
Uber is building a flying-taxi pilot program in L.A., and the hovercraft-maker Kitty Hawk, backed by Alphabet CEO Larry Page, is working on consumer transports. Our bet: In 2018, Tesla CEO and mobility futurist Elon Musk joins the sky-race with
an aeronautic venture of his own.
All-electric car sales near 1 million next year
Even if Washington is resistant to paving the way, global sales of all-electric cars will surge 70% in 2018, up from 580,000 this year, according to LMC Automotive.
The odds
- Long shot: The Trump administration, at Detroit’s urging, sinks $10 billion into zero-emissions car research.
- Slam dunk: Next year will be the warmest La Niña year on record.
These Are Pop Culture's 4 Names You Need to Know in 2018
Illustration by Sam Peet for Fortune
By TOM HUDDLESTON JR., ANNE VANDERMEY, VALENTINA ZARYA, and BRIAN O'KEEFE
November 21, 2017
Haven’t heard of Chloe Kim? You will in a few months, when she’s the U.S. Olympic team’s new breakout star. And while you’re at it, you should also get to know Khalid, the 19-year-old musical sensation fast on his way to becoming a household name. These are the four pop culture figures most likely to have a huge year:
MUSIC: Khalid
Fortune asked data analytics firm Affinio to run the numbers on who the next huge name in music would be. The answer: 19-year-old singer Khalid. Already, his first studio album hit No. 9 on Billboard and his single “Location” reached 16 on the Hot 100. But Affinio pinpointed him for another reason: looking at Khalid’s fast-growing group of fans online and in social media. “We were surprised to see such a range of audience segments,” the firm says. “The fact that his audience stretched out past teenagers and the hiphop community showed us that he’s got a great mainstream appeal (pop culture females ranging from teenagers to alumni), but he also appeals to more niche hop hop communities like Trap Rap.” He’s got the music—and also the fanbase—to be the industry’s next star.
SPORTS (U.S.): Giannis Antetokounmpo AKA “The Greek Freak”
DALLAS, TX - NOVEMBER 18: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks reacts against the Dallas Mavericks in the second half at American Airlines Center on November 18, 2017 in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
Giannis Antetokounmpo, sometimes referred to as “The Greek Freak,” was born in Athens to Nigerian immigrants. Now, the Milwaukee Bucks’ 22-year-old hoops prodigy is joining the NBA’s elite. Proof? His forthcoming Nike signature shoe.
SPORTS (international): Chloe Kim
PARK CITY, UT - SEPTEMBER 25: Snowboarder Chloe Kim poses for a portrait during the Team USA Media Summit ahead of the PyeongChang 2018 Olympic Winter Games on September 25, 2017 in Park City, Utah. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
With her penchant for glitter nail polish and Crayola-colored hair, it’s easy to forget that Chloe Kim isn’t just an average 17-year-old. Since the Southern California native has been 13 years old, she has been called the future of women’s snowboarding. At 14, she missed the Sochi Winter Olympics (she was too young), but beat out that year’s gold medalist, Kelly Clark, in the 2015 X Games. And for those who may think that the women’s standards are any lower than the men’s consider this: At age 16, she scored a perfect 100 points at the 2016 X Games, and is widely believed to be the second rider ever to do so, after Shaun White (and he was 26).
MOVIES: Domhnall Gleeson
arrives for the Premiere Of Walt Disney Pictures And Lucasfilm's "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" held on December 14, 2015 in Hollywood, California.
The actor whose name will be on everyone’s lips next year? Domhnall Gleeson. The 34-year-old Irishman delivered spectacular performances for roles in recent movies like Ex Machina, Brooklyn, and The Revenant. Look out for Gleeson as the tyrannical General Hux in the latest Star Wars flicks—though you may remember him best for his portrayal of Bill Weasley in the Harry Potter series.
Illustration by Sam Peet for Fortune
By TOM HUDDLESTON JR., ANNE VANDERMEY, VALENTINA ZARYA, and BRIAN O'KEEFE
November 21, 2017
Haven’t heard of Chloe Kim? You will in a few months, when she’s the U.S. Olympic team’s new breakout star. And while you’re at it, you should also get to know Khalid, the 19-year-old musical sensation fast on his way to becoming a household name. These are the four pop culture figures most likely to have a huge year:
MUSIC: Khalid
Fortune asked data analytics firm Affinio to run the numbers on who the next huge name in music would be. The answer: 19-year-old singer Khalid. Already, his first studio album hit No. 9 on Billboard and his single “Location” reached 16 on the Hot 100. But Affinio pinpointed him for another reason: looking at Khalid’s fast-growing group of fans online and in social media. “We were surprised to see such a range of audience segments,” the firm says. “The fact that his audience stretched out past teenagers and the hiphop community showed us that he’s got a great mainstream appeal (pop culture females ranging from teenagers to alumni), but he also appeals to more niche hop hop communities like Trap Rap.” He’s got the music—and also the fanbase—to be the industry’s next star.
SPORTS (U.S.): Giannis Antetokounmpo AKA “The Greek Freak”
DALLAS, TX - NOVEMBER 18: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks reacts against the Dallas Mavericks in the second half at American Airlines Center on November 18, 2017 in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
Giannis Antetokounmpo, sometimes referred to as “The Greek Freak,” was born in Athens to Nigerian immigrants. Now, the Milwaukee Bucks’ 22-year-old hoops prodigy is joining the NBA’s elite. Proof? His forthcoming Nike signature shoe.
SPORTS (international): Chloe Kim
PARK CITY, UT - SEPTEMBER 25: Snowboarder Chloe Kim poses for a portrait during the Team USA Media Summit ahead of the PyeongChang 2018 Olympic Winter Games on September 25, 2017 in Park City, Utah. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
With her penchant for glitter nail polish and Crayola-colored hair, it’s easy to forget that Chloe Kim isn’t just an average 17-year-old. Since the Southern California native has been 13 years old, she has been called the future of women’s snowboarding. At 14, she missed the Sochi Winter Olympics (she was too young), but beat out that year’s gold medalist, Kelly Clark, in the 2015 X Games. And for those who may think that the women’s standards are any lower than the men’s consider this: At age 16, she scored a perfect 100 points at the 2016 X Games, and is widely believed to be the second rider ever to do so, after Shaun White (and he was 26).
MOVIES: Domhnall Gleeson
arrives for the Premiere Of Walt Disney Pictures And Lucasfilm's "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" held on December 14, 2015 in Hollywood, California.
The actor whose name will be on everyone’s lips next year? Domhnall Gleeson. The 34-year-old Irishman delivered spectacular performances for roles in recent movies like Ex Machina, Brooklyn, and The Revenant. Look out for Gleeson as the tyrannical General Hux in the latest Star Wars flicks—though you may remember him best for his portrayal of Bill Weasley in the Harry Potter series.
Sports, media, food, and culture are changing almost as fast as the ways we consume them.
Illustration by Sam Peet for Fortune
The number of cord-cutters will hit 27 million
The ranks of cord-cutters will keep ballooning in 2018. By the end of this year about 22.2 million Americans will have ditched their cable TV providers, a 33.2% increase from 2016. Those losses will rise next year—and the next, and the next. But don’t shed a tear for the cable industry’s bottom line. As traditional TV subscriptions plummet, companies like Comcast and Verizon are seeing big growth in broadband.
Meatless meat is the next dairy-free milk
We’ll say it: Plants are hot. Milk alternatives—think almond and soy—have grown 45% by volume over the past five years to constitute 7% of the U.S. market. Expect meat aisles to transform next, as food and tech collide to produce alternatives that taste more, well, meaty. Right now, substitutes make up less than 1% of the processed-meat and seafood market—but their rate of growth should outpace the real stuff’s. Read more on the food trends to watch in 2018 here.
E-Sports get huge
Competitive gaming is going mainstream. Research firm Newzoo says e-sports, a $660 million industry, will soar 40% next year thanks to sponsorships, media rights, and, yes, ticket sales. Gamemaker Blizzard opened its first U.S. arena this fall.
"My Brilliant Friend" by Elena Ferrante.
The hot new show: My Brilliant Friend
HBO and Italian state broadcaster RAI are teaming up to produce the first installment of Elena Ferrante’s Neapolitan Novels, the international bestselling series, for an as-yet-undisclosed release date in 2018.
The favorites
Photos: Getty Images
Illustration by Sam Peet for Fortune
The number of cord-cutters will hit 27 million
The ranks of cord-cutters will keep ballooning in 2018. By the end of this year about 22.2 million Americans will have ditched their cable TV providers, a 33.2% increase from 2016. Those losses will rise next year—and the next, and the next. But don’t shed a tear for the cable industry’s bottom line. As traditional TV subscriptions plummet, companies like Comcast and Verizon are seeing big growth in broadband.
Meatless meat is the next dairy-free milk
We’ll say it: Plants are hot. Milk alternatives—think almond and soy—have grown 45% by volume over the past five years to constitute 7% of the U.S. market. Expect meat aisles to transform next, as food and tech collide to produce alternatives that taste more, well, meaty. Right now, substitutes make up less than 1% of the processed-meat and seafood market—but their rate of growth should outpace the real stuff’s. Read more on the food trends to watch in 2018 here.
E-Sports get huge
Competitive gaming is going mainstream. Research firm Newzoo says e-sports, a $660 million industry, will soar 40% next year thanks to sponsorships, media rights, and, yes, ticket sales. Gamemaker Blizzard opened its first U.S. arena this fall.
"My Brilliant Friend" by Elena Ferrante.
The hot new show: My Brilliant Friend
HBO and Italian state broadcaster RAI are teaming up to produce the first installment of Elena Ferrante’s Neapolitan Novels, the international bestselling series, for an as-yet-undisclosed release date in 2018.
The favorites
- Super Bowl: The Patriots meet the Vikings in Super Bowl LII. Despite complaints from Papa John’s, the TV audience falls below 105 million, down 5%.
- World Series: The Dodgers square off against the Cleveland Indians, as L.A.’s investor-owners pray that their payroll—the highest in baseball, at $240 million—finally yields a trophy.
- NBA: The Cleveland Cavaliers face a surprise contender, the Houston Rockets, owned by steak-house and casino magnate Tilman Fertitta.
Photos: Getty Images
6. Tech’s Peril and Promise in 2018
Next year, incredible innovations, intrepid hackers, and executive infighting will leave their mark on Silicon Valley and beyond.
Illustration by Sam Peet for Fortune
Facebook finally admits it’s a media company
If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it’s probably a tech company. Right? Facebook insists it’s not a media business, despite evidence proving otherwise: fake news frustrations, editors as employees, $27 billion in annual advertising revenue. Next year, look for it to drop its resistance to the moniker, even though that could open it up to more regulation.
Apple breaks records
In November, supplies of the Apple’s $999 iPhone X sold out in hours (only to turn up on eBay for up to $8,000). In 2018, expect the X to help Apple finally beat its 2015 phone sales record.
The sheer number of health apps will cause you trauma
There’s a health app for just about everything these days. Robo-therapy? Diabetes assistance? Rare disease support groups? Check, check, check. Global mobile health venture funding reached a record $1.3 billion last year, according to Mercom. The field will continue to boom in 2018 (the total global market could exceed $100 billion by 2022), especially as the FDA moves to make it easier for mobile health apps to reach the market.
Travis Kalanick resurfaces
Americans love second acts. Kalanick, the epitome for good and ill of the American entrepreneur, will get his this year. He’s still on the Uber board of directors, and IPO preparations will include Kalanick, a master fundraiser and spinner of the Uber narrative.
Bitcoin crashes! Bitcoin hits all-time highs!
It’s been a banner year for the cryptocurrency Bitcoin, but mark our words: A crash is coming. Expect the price of one Bitcoin to tumble from its current heights above $6,500, to around $5,000. And then, after the fall, watch the price rebound to above $20,000 by the end of 2018. That’s our bet, but we wouldn’t put all our tokens on it. We’ll leave that to the institutional investors, like mutual funds and banks, who are taking cryptocurrency increasingly seriously.
Online dating pivots to video
As more media companies make the leap into video, dating apps are doing the same. In 2017, Hinge began allowing users to upload 30-second films, Bumble launched a video-chat feature, and even good old Match.com is adding a new “Story” option, with minute-long, live-action compilations. Millennials, already primed by Instagram and Snapchat to share their lives with strangers, will embrace the features as their new normal.
Amazon Keeps Eating the World
Hot on the heels of its acquisition of Whole Foods Market, Amazon will keep bolstering its physical presence to speed up delivery. That could mean buying more retail chains with big footprints like Kohl’s or Office Depot.
These Three Companies Will Make Your City Beg to Host Them
Amazon got plenty of positive press (and offers of tax breaks) when it said it was looking for another HQ. More companies will follow its lead in 2018. Looking at you, Facebook, Nvidia, and Alibaba.
Walmart snaps up more trendy companies
As Walmart revamps its website to counter Amazon, its acquisitions of small but hot online brands will continue. Expect to see deals for stalwarts like eyeglass maker Warby Parker and clothiers Everlane and Untuckit. The bids will help Walmart reach the higher-income customer it so covets.
The odds
Next year, incredible innovations, intrepid hackers, and executive infighting will leave their mark on Silicon Valley and beyond.
Illustration by Sam Peet for Fortune
Facebook finally admits it’s a media company
If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it’s probably a tech company. Right? Facebook insists it’s not a media business, despite evidence proving otherwise: fake news frustrations, editors as employees, $27 billion in annual advertising revenue. Next year, look for it to drop its resistance to the moniker, even though that could open it up to more regulation.
Apple breaks records
In November, supplies of the Apple’s $999 iPhone X sold out in hours (only to turn up on eBay for up to $8,000). In 2018, expect the X to help Apple finally beat its 2015 phone sales record.
The sheer number of health apps will cause you trauma
There’s a health app for just about everything these days. Robo-therapy? Diabetes assistance? Rare disease support groups? Check, check, check. Global mobile health venture funding reached a record $1.3 billion last year, according to Mercom. The field will continue to boom in 2018 (the total global market could exceed $100 billion by 2022), especially as the FDA moves to make it easier for mobile health apps to reach the market.
Travis Kalanick resurfaces
Americans love second acts. Kalanick, the epitome for good and ill of the American entrepreneur, will get his this year. He’s still on the Uber board of directors, and IPO preparations will include Kalanick, a master fundraiser and spinner of the Uber narrative.
Bitcoin crashes! Bitcoin hits all-time highs!
It’s been a banner year for the cryptocurrency Bitcoin, but mark our words: A crash is coming. Expect the price of one Bitcoin to tumble from its current heights above $6,500, to around $5,000. And then, after the fall, watch the price rebound to above $20,000 by the end of 2018. That’s our bet, but we wouldn’t put all our tokens on it. We’ll leave that to the institutional investors, like mutual funds and banks, who are taking cryptocurrency increasingly seriously.
Online dating pivots to video
As more media companies make the leap into video, dating apps are doing the same. In 2017, Hinge began allowing users to upload 30-second films, Bumble launched a video-chat feature, and even good old Match.com is adding a new “Story” option, with minute-long, live-action compilations. Millennials, already primed by Instagram and Snapchat to share their lives with strangers, will embrace the features as their new normal.
Amazon Keeps Eating the World
Hot on the heels of its acquisition of Whole Foods Market, Amazon will keep bolstering its physical presence to speed up delivery. That could mean buying more retail chains with big footprints like Kohl’s or Office Depot.
These Three Companies Will Make Your City Beg to Host Them
Amazon got plenty of positive press (and offers of tax breaks) when it said it was looking for another HQ. More companies will follow its lead in 2018. Looking at you, Facebook, Nvidia, and Alibaba.
Walmart snaps up more trendy companies
As Walmart revamps its website to counter Amazon, its acquisitions of small but hot online brands will continue. Expect to see deals for stalwarts like eyeglass maker Warby Parker and clothiers Everlane and Untuckit. The bids will help Walmart reach the higher-income customer it so covets.
The odds
- Long shot: Bullying concerns plague a hot new Postmates/Sarahah-hybrid app, where gig economy workers hand-deliver anonymous notes.
- Slam dunk: Another company with a staggering amount of your private information gets hacked.
it won't happen in 2018 as sg is expected to thrive with more enbloc sales of private condos. many sinkies who bought condos decades ago will be multi-millionaires when they cash out. huat ah!
https://sg.yahoo.com/finance/news/sustained-land-led-consortium-buys-114224367.html
Sustained Land-led consortium buys Parkway Mansion for $1,536 psf ppr
[email protected],EdgeProp Wed, 13 Dec 3:42 AM GMT-8
A consortium led by Singapore developer Sustained Land has bought Parkway Mansion along Amber Road at $1,536 psf ppr, announced marketing agent Colliers International on Dec 13. The absolute sale price for the freehold site – $146.99 million – marks a 6.5% premium over its indicative price of $138 million.
The sale price includes an estimated $21 million development charge for intensification of land use. It is higher than the prices achieved by recent collective sale sites in the vicinity: Amber Park ($1,515 psf ppr); Nanak Mansions ($1,429 psf ppr); and The Albracca ($1,409 psf ppr).
If the sale is successful, owners will stand to receive between $4.5 million and $4.7 million in gross proceeds – for each unit, depending on the unit size.
This is the third collective sale attempt for the 38,975 sq ft site, which is located within walking distance of Tanjong Katong MRT station on the upcoming Thomson-East Coast Line. Under the 2014 Master Plan, the site is zoned ‘Residential’ with a gross plot ratio of 2.8. The existing development, which is 17 storeys high, comprises 32 units sized between 1,819 sq ft to 1,948 sq ft.
Colliers estimates 130 units with an average size of 800 sq ft can be built on the site (subject to authorities’ approval) – and that they could be sold at a price range of $2,550 psf to $2,600 psf. The winning developer does not have to undertake a Pre-Application Feasibility Study for the site, notes Colliers.
https://www.edgeprop.sg/node/2386335
Oxley buys Vista Park for $418 million, 19.4% above asking price
By [email protected] | December 15, 2017 12:43 AM MYT
Tags: collective saleen blocVista ParkOxley Holdings
Listed property group Oxley Holdings announced that its bid of $418 million has been accepted by the strata owners of the 209-unit Vista Park condominium on South Buona Vista Road, off Pasir Panjang Road. Vista Park sits on a 319,250 sq ft site with a 99-year lease from 1979. Oxley intends to apply to the Singapore Land Authority for a fresh 99-year lease, with the lease top-up premium estimated at $72 million. Inclusive of the lease top-up premium, the purchase price translates to $1,096 psf per plot ratio (ppr).
The site has a plot ratio of 1.4 and maximum height of five-storeys, and has the potential gross floor area (GFA) of around 446,951 sq ft. The site can therefore, be redeveloped into a new project of about 530 units, assuming an average size of 800 sq ft per unit. Teakhwa Real Estate was the marketing agent, and the site was said to have received five bids at the close of the tender on Dec 13. Vista Park was put up for sale by tender on Nov 17, with an asking price of $350 million. Hence, Oxley's purchase price of $418 million is 19.4% higher than the asking price.
This marks the third successful collective sale deal in two days. The day before, the freehold 32-unit Parkway Mansion was sold for $146.99 million ($1,536 psf ppr) to a Sustained Land-led consortium and the 18-unit Derby Court went to Roxy-Pacific Holdings for $73.88 million ($1,390 psf ppr).
https://www.edgeprop.sg/node/2385503
Cairnhill Heights owners seeking more than $80 mil in collective sale
By Angela Teo / EdgeProp | December 13, 2017 10:46 PM MYT
Tags: collective saleen blocCairnhill HeightsCairnhillERA RealtyNewtonAnglo-Chinese School (Junior)
Cairnhill Heights is set to launch its latest collective sale attempt on Dec 19 — its last attempt being in 2007, at the height of the last collective sale fever. ERA Realty, the marketing agent, says that 91% of the owners have consented to the collective sale.
The asking price is in excess of $80 million ($2,045 psf ppr), including estimated development charges. The freehold residential site measures about 15,408 sq ft and has an existing 19-unit apartment building. Under the 2014 Master Plan, the site is zoned “Residential”, with a gross plot ratio of 2.8.
The asking price translates into an estimated breakeven price of $2,400 to $2,600 sq ft, says ERA. “The developer can consider building a boutique project with 42 units, each measuring 1,100 sq ft,” says Jeremy Rikas Chiu, group division director of ERA Realty. This is subject to authorities’ approval for the site to be redeveloped up to a gross floor area (GFA) of 47,455 sq ft, or a plot ratio of 3.08, he adds.
The site is located within the prestigious Cairnhill enclave, within walking distance of the Newton MRT station and Anglo-Chinese School (Junior).
(Credit: Samuel Isaac Chua/The Edge Singapore)
8. Who’s Going to Have a Good Year
In business as in all things, there are winners and losers. Here’s what will be hot (or not) in 2018.
iPhone: Courtesy of Lyft; Buffett: J. Kempin/Getty Images; opioids: Gregory Rec—Portland Press Herald via Getty Images; dog: Andrew Johnson—Getty Images; Rose: Rosemary Calvert
Trending up
In business as in all things, there are winners and losers. Here’s what will be hot (or not) in 2018.
iPhone: Courtesy of Lyft; Buffett: J. Kempin/Getty Images; opioids: Gregory Rec—Portland Press Herald via Getty Images; dog: Andrew Johnson—Getty Images; Rose: Rosemary Calvert
Trending up
- Lyft. The ride-sharing startup will continue to benefit from Uber’s scandals (and a focus on business travel), with market share speeding from 21% in early 2017 to more than 30% in 2018.
- Chinese billionaires. There are already more billionaires in China than there are in the U.S. by some counts. And, like the Chinese economy, those fortunes look set to continue their outsize growth.
- Lawyers. Someone has to benefit from the tide of lawsuits coming at opioid manufacturers—particularly if drugmakers pay out a multibillion-dollar settlement.
- Edibles for pets. Pet edibles are the next doggy Prozac. It’s just one market that will get smoking hot when legal recreational weed goes on sale in California in January.
- $500 yoga pants. Sure, malls are flailing, but the priciest among them (a.k.a. “Class A” malls, featuring racks of designer labels) still have strong growth prospects.
- Flower flavoring. Forget the pumpkin spice latte, Whole Foods says people will go nuts for flower flavors like rose and lavender
in 2018. - The Fanny Pack. Call it normcore, or call it practical. But the fanny pack, already gracing the frames of several Kardashians, will hit more runways in 2018.
- Uber. Despite stabilization efforts at the company (including a huge cash infusion from SoftBank), Uber will keep losing ground to its smaller rivals.
- Warren Buffett’s net worth. Sure, the Oracle of Omaha’s net worth hit a hew high of $81.5 billion this fall, according to Bloomberg, but further growth next year will be thwarted by his tendency to give it away.
- Opioid distributors and manufacturers. They’ll be forced to rethink their practices under mounting litigation filed by cities, counties, and states, not to mention growing public pressure.
- Mom-and-pop weed companies. Quickening industry consolidation will nip many aspiring cannabiz moguls in the bud.
- $100 yoga pants. Lululemon and other stalwarts of the “athleisure” craze will lose market share as people who actually exercise realize there’s no point in working out in expensive clothes.
- Food delivery startups. The day of reckoning is finally nigh for heavily VC-subsidized food delivery startups. (Just ask Blue Apron investors.)
- Podcasts. The airwaves have reached the saturation point for three guys and a Patreon account. A shakeout is coming.
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