2011 Marine Parade election results similar to Aljunied's in 2006

[Force 136]

At the 2006 general election, George Yeo led the PAP team in the Aljunied constituency which defeated the team from the Workers' Party with 56.1% of the votes to 43.9%.

Note the 2006 figures : 56.1% vs 43.9%.
George Yeo was knocked out in 2011. The Workers' Party team won 54.7% of the votes to the PAP team's 45.3% - an 11% swing.

Now look at the 2011 election results for Marine Parade GRC:
PAP - 56.64...... NSP - 43.36 %
The results here is almost identical to the one above.

This means that there is a good chance that Marine Parade will fall to the Opposition in 2016 if a top team were to be fielded.
Even a popular Minister can be knocked out - what more GCT, by then a 75 year old toothless retired old cock?

All that is needed is a 7% swing

That means out of 100 voters, even if 4 PAP supporters were to switch sides, there would be an 8% swing, throwing the PAP out of marine Parade.

If it can happen in Aljunied, it can happen in Marine Parade.

Unless, of course, Tin Pei Ling shows that she is a great MP deserving the people's continued support.....

 

[roaringlion]

Or TPL quits and votes goes back to PAP.

 

[sense]

At the 2006 general election, George Yeo led the PAP team in the Aljunied constituency which defeated the team from the Workers' Party with 56.1% of the votes to 43.9%.Note the 2006 figures : 56.1% vs 43.9%.George Yeo was knocked out in 2011. The Workers' Party team won 54.7% of the votes to the PAP team's 45.3% - an 11% swing. Now look at the 2011 election results for Marine Parade GRC: PAP - 56.64...... NSP - 43.36 % The results here is almost identical to the one above.This means that there is a good chance that Marine Parade will fall to the Opposition in 2016 if a top team were to be fielded.Even a popular Minister can be knocked out - what more GCT, by then a 75 year old toothless retired old cock?All that is needed is a 7% swingThat means out of 100 voters, even if 4 PAP supporters were to switch sides, there would be an 8% swing, throwing the PAP out of marine Parade.If it can happen in Aljunied, it can happen in Marine Parade.Unless, of course, Tin Pei Ling shows that she is a great MP deserving the people's continued support.....

In theory, your observation is sound. In practice, you can be sure that people, ESP. Mparade residents will be watching WP moves + how the Govt treats Aljunied as a whole. The WP who made a big hoo ha about why NCMP is bad, and yet blatantly snatch the opportunity to be NCMPs shows that WP does not walks the talk in this case. Their performance and actions over the years to come will either help gain more grounds for the opposition OR cause a downfall for the opposition.It is most unfortunate that NSP did not make it to either securing a GRC/SMC or NCMP, otherwise this opposition duopoly would v likely benefit Singapore over the next several years.Positively, the opposition monopoly beyond just 1 seat should be sufficient for the PAP to sit up and work for the people, rather than invent creative excuses for status quo, case in point, the ridiculous "raiding of reserves" by the ousted MBT in relation to the out of control demand in public housing (2011). In this specific case prior to KBW, it's a -1 for PAP, +1 for the NSP and +1 for the WP.

 

[The_Hypocrite]

Good analysis. but also if NSP buck up. For example Silvia Lim worked hard in Aljunied as NCMP. She did walk abouts, help the constituents etc so the constituents know her..for NSP like other Oppos are like PAP only appear during the elections..I wonder if Nicole is still doing her groundwork there, but also NSP has to buck up,,I am really upset with NSP concerning Tampines, GMS basically disappeared during the election letting MBT won,,

If NS is with WP and WP contest MP next time, chances of winning is strong..if its NSP and NSP does not buck up, they will loose and give PAP the GRC with all the trimmings...

 

[Fook Seng]

The GE 2011 did show what worked and what didn't. But Sinkies are daft according the Old Man. Most will not know how to recognize this.

 

[Force 136]

I resurrected this old thread because the GE 2015/16 is just around the corner......

 

[zhihau]

Force,
Not until JC-SMC is absorbed into either EC or MP GRC would we see another "Aljunied" at MP-GRC. EC GRC on the other hand... Teeheehee...

 

[jw5]

Someone will start a thread later this year:

2015 Marine Parade election results similar to Aljunied's in 2011.

 

[Sinkie]

Forget about Marine Parade.........if it goes to Opposition, I'll chop.

Please bookmark this post for future reference.

 

[JohnTan]

At the 2006 general election, George Yeo led the PAP team in the Aljunied constituency which defeated the team from the Workers' Party with 56.1% of the votes to 43.9%.

Note the 2006 figures : 56.1% vs 43.9%.
George Yeo was knocked out in 2011. The Workers' Party team won 54.7% of the votes to the PAP team's 45.3% - an 11% swing.

Now look at the 2011 election results for Marine Parade GRC:
PAP - 56.64...... NSP - 43.36 %
The results here is almost identical to the one above.

This means that there is a good chance that Marine Parade will fall to the Opposition in 2016 if a top team were to be fielded.
Even a popular Minister can be knocked out - what more GCT, by then a 75 year old toothless retired old cock?

All that is needed is a 7% swing

That means out of 100 voters, even if 4 PAP supporters were to switch sides, there would be an 8% swing, throwing the PAP out of marine Parade.

If it can happen in Aljunied, it can happen in Marine Parade.

Unless, of course, Tin Pei Ling shows that she is a great MP deserving the people's continued support.....

NSP is not WP. To most, NSP is an unreliable party with no known face. And NSP lost its greatest asset - Nicole Seah. We have bought her.

 

[vtran2684]

Should GCT be the next to be knocked out? How about TCH?

 

[rotiprata]

10% margin is the norm... PE by-election also 10% :p

I resurrected this old thread because the GE 2015/16 is just around the corner......

 

[rotiprata]

me think marine-parade as a SMC is still a lau goh strong hold,
but dun know whether he will step down or not in GE15/16

Should GCT be the next to be knocked out? How about TCH?

 

[rotiprata]

i will place my bet that TPL will get re elected; her votes may well help the others to secure a victory by slim margin

Or TPL quits and votes goes back to PAP.

 

[vtran2684]

me think marine-parade as a SMC is still a lau goh strong hold,
but dun know whether he will step down or not in GE15/16

he may step down with another scholar/scholar general in his place.

 

[rotiprata]

that scholar general whom lau goh describe as 'a heavy weight' is still a boy scout as far as politics is concerned.

he may step down with another scholar/scholar general in his place.

 

[Equalisation]

i will place my bet that TPL will get re elected; her votes may well help the others to secure a victory by slim margin

Yes, but she has to make a trunk call to Yong Peng.:o

 

[rotiprata]

her connections have deep pockets.... every month or so, her grassroots team beri on the ball...always hold weekend events, parties,... lucky draw, free makan, can tar-pau home some more... all the old folks, esp...there just love TPL beri much..

Yes, but she has to make a trunk call to Yong Peng.:o

 

[Force 136]

Tin Tin has made inroads only in MacPherson-Circuit Road area.

Gen Tan CJ is a dud.

Goh CT has become a lame duck - he does not even know what had happened to Chan CS when the latter was kicked to the labour movement. Nobody kept him in the loop. Nobody saw it fit to seek his opinion. He SHOULD step down if he has any sense of pride.

Latif should be able to hold her own.

My analysis is that it would be a close fight if SingFirst were to field a strong team in Marine Parade. NSP is a ghost ship without Nicole Seah......