- Joined
- Jul 16, 2008
- Messages
- 26,506
- Points
- 113
We saw a doubling of community cases y’say from the day before.
17 unlinked cases + 102 linked but not quarantined.
This means a total of 119 community transmission nodes.
If Delta is like the previous variants, then 10~20% of cases are responsible for 80~90% of the secondary transmission, while 70% do not transmit to others.
We know the viral load is higher for Delta cases, and we know Delta is twice as infectious as the older variants.
So maybe instead of 70% not transmitting to others, perhaps 50% or less do not transmit to others.
Like the older variants last year, we know a significant proportion have no symptoms even when their viral load is high and infectious.
So - so what?
With 119 community nodes, this means we could have 11~22 superspreaders in the community.
With community nodes ticking at 5~9 a day, it takes a while for a superspreader to pop up.
At 50~150 detected community nodes a day, we just know that we must have superspreaders already rippling infections out far and wide. A clear example is the KTB cluster, and now the Jurong Fisheries Port.
Each superspreader could infect another 30 to 200 cases. They can create more superspreaders, and we will get huge overwhelming outbreak if we don’t take this seriously and fast.
In France, big country, the cases are doubling every 5 days, and little Sg just doubled in 1 day.
UK exploded from around a few hundred a day to a few thousand a day, and now in the several tens of thousands a day.
But UK has about 95% of their 50++ year old vaccinated, and our highly vulnerable 75++ year olds in Sg are stubbornly doing a slow dance at just over 70% vaccination coverage.
So don’t just play play and pray pray.
Act and don’t wait.
Don’t wait till it’s too late.
Go vaccinate, and tighten our belts again to help squeeze out the current super clusters.
That is the oy way for us to save lives and livelihoods.
Vaccinated or not, stay away from activities with high superspreader potential.
And stop using people to take forehead temperatures of visitors and guests.
We are creating hundreds and thousands of little nodes with moderately high superspreader nodes.
As for non human sensors, change to measuring wrist temperatures, instead asking folks to step forward to share their breath with the next guy.
The temperature screening is an ineffective way of testing for covid cases.
If we are serious, we should use pre-entry fast 15 minute antigen rapid tests. Eg at conferences, or events which have high risk activities like eating together, singing, laughing or shouting.
If the risks are low, why bother with an ineffectual fever screening which adds more risk to both the screener and the screenees for very little benefit.
It’s ok if we use a distance monitor where we don’t add risks to the community - there, the marginal utility may be worth it, and certainly useful for high exposure rusk places like the borders and the hospitals or clinics.
So folks, play time is over - buckle up, hunker down, and let’s squeeze down these current super clusters over the next 2-3-4 weeks.
How fast we can squeeze down, depends how seriously we work on reducing unnecessary contacts.
Don’t wait if we are to run ahead of the rippling waves that can quickly build into a tsunami.
Go vaccinate if we have not done so.
Minimise our gallivanting for the next 2 weeks.
17 unlinked cases + 102 linked but not quarantined.
This means a total of 119 community transmission nodes.
If Delta is like the previous variants, then 10~20% of cases are responsible for 80~90% of the secondary transmission, while 70% do not transmit to others.
We know the viral load is higher for Delta cases, and we know Delta is twice as infectious as the older variants.
So maybe instead of 70% not transmitting to others, perhaps 50% or less do not transmit to others.
Like the older variants last year, we know a significant proportion have no symptoms even when their viral load is high and infectious.
So - so what?
With 119 community nodes, this means we could have 11~22 superspreaders in the community.
With community nodes ticking at 5~9 a day, it takes a while for a superspreader to pop up.
At 50~150 detected community nodes a day, we just know that we must have superspreaders already rippling infections out far and wide. A clear example is the KTB cluster, and now the Jurong Fisheries Port.
Each superspreader could infect another 30 to 200 cases. They can create more superspreaders, and we will get huge overwhelming outbreak if we don’t take this seriously and fast.
In France, big country, the cases are doubling every 5 days, and little Sg just doubled in 1 day.
UK exploded from around a few hundred a day to a few thousand a day, and now in the several tens of thousands a day.
But UK has about 95% of their 50++ year old vaccinated, and our highly vulnerable 75++ year olds in Sg are stubbornly doing a slow dance at just over 70% vaccination coverage.
So don’t just play play and pray pray.
Act and don’t wait.
Don’t wait till it’s too late.
Go vaccinate, and tighten our belts again to help squeeze out the current super clusters.
That is the oy way for us to save lives and livelihoods.
Vaccinated or not, stay away from activities with high superspreader potential.
And stop using people to take forehead temperatures of visitors and guests.
We are creating hundreds and thousands of little nodes with moderately high superspreader nodes.
As for non human sensors, change to measuring wrist temperatures, instead asking folks to step forward to share their breath with the next guy.
The temperature screening is an ineffective way of testing for covid cases.
If we are serious, we should use pre-entry fast 15 minute antigen rapid tests. Eg at conferences, or events which have high risk activities like eating together, singing, laughing or shouting.
If the risks are low, why bother with an ineffectual fever screening which adds more risk to both the screener and the screenees for very little benefit.
It’s ok if we use a distance monitor where we don’t add risks to the community - there, the marginal utility may be worth it, and certainly useful for high exposure rusk places like the borders and the hospitals or clinics.
So folks, play time is over - buckle up, hunker down, and let’s squeeze down these current super clusters over the next 2-3-4 weeks.
How fast we can squeeze down, depends how seriously we work on reducing unnecessary contacts.
Don’t wait if we are to run ahead of the rippling waves that can quickly build into a tsunami.
Go vaccinate if we have not done so.
Minimise our gallivanting for the next 2 weeks.
