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小鸟不识弹弓!Tiny Bird knows no catapult - China laughing @ Taiwanese attempt to make missiles - 以武拒统立即击毙!

democracy my butt

Alfrescian
Loyal
http://slide.mil.news.sina.com.cn/k/slide_8_62085_73350.html#p=1

蚍蜉撼树不自量:云峰中程导弹能成“台独”分子的救命稻草?

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1 / 16
据台媒报道,台“中科院”近日启动了射程接近2000公里的“云峰”中程导弹的量产计划,准备量产10套机动发射系统及20枚战备导弹,以机动发射的方式,部署在台湾省北部和中部地区。美国《国家利益》网站认为,“云峰”导弹可以被台军用来打击大陆腹地城市,并对可能对台湾省发动攻击的解放军军事设施构成威胁。那么这款导弹有什么来历,它又真的能够吓阻我军推进统一大业吗?本期《出鞘》就来谈“台独分子”的新救命稻草——“云峰”中程导弹。

蚍蜉撼树不自量:云峰中程导弹能成“台独”分子的救命稻草?

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“云峰”中程冲压发动机导弹是台军为了能够打到大陆中北部目标,而设计的少数战略武器之一,于1996年台海危机后开始秘密研发,当时发射试验被隐藏在“雄风-3”反舰导弹的试验专案下进行,直到2014年马英九任内完成最终测试。据美国战略与国际问题研究中心介绍,“云峰”原始型号射程为1200公里,而此次量产型“云峰”由于使用增程技术,射程已经接近2000公里。

蚍蜉撼树不自量:云峰中程导弹能成“台独”分子的救命稻草?

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那么台湾省为何会如此热衷中程导弹呢?其实几十年来台湾省为了对抗大陆的导弹优势,原本将主要精力放在建构一个类似美国战区导弹防御系统的防空体系上,不过后来发现,要想成功拦截一枚普通战术导弹,至少需要4枚价格昂贵的拦截导弹。考虑到大陆已在海峡西岸部署了至少1000枚短程弹道导弹,台当局认为与其费力搞防空,不如放手一搏研制具有攻击能力的中程导弹。

蚍蜉撼树不自量:云峰中程导弹能成“台独”分子的救命稻草?

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4 / 16
在台“中科院”的牵头下,台湾省自上世纪70年代起先后进行过数个机密计划以研制中程导弹,当然与其他所谓的机密计划一样,这几个计划也被取了很唬人的名字。首先便是“青锋计划”,它是想在以色列提供的美制“长矛”导弹技术的基础上,研制射程达120公里的短程弹道导弹。因为技术简单,该导弹自1976年开始研制,1980年便成功,让台当局着实信心爆棚了一段时间。

蚍蜉撼树不自量:云峰中程导弹能成“台独”分子的救命稻草?

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在“青锋”研制成功一周后,台当局立马推出另一项射程更大的中程弹道导弹研制计划——“天马计划”。该计划设想以“青锋”导弹为基础,对脱节机构关键性技术以及脱节后第二节火箭空中点火技术的研究。此后7年时间里,台当局耗资180亿新台币,先后完成了导弹弹体和地面导引系统等部分设备的研制,直到1982年美国因顾虑其或具备携带核弹头的能力,而要求终止研发。

蚍蜉撼树不自量:云峰中程导弹能成“台独”分子的救命稻草?

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但“天马计划”的结束却并没有彻底终止台当局研发中程导弹的野心,反而让他们吸取了不少经验教训,最明显的就是后续的研发计划被藏得更深了,例如直到2001年才有台媒曝光称,原本“天马计划”当年并未被完全取消,而是改头换面成“逖靖计划”,继续暗中进行。“逖靖计划”的密级颇高,据悉当时由台军的“参谋次长”具体组织实施,并且陈水扁也定期会听取研制进展。

蚍蜉撼树不自量:云峰中程导弹能成“台独”分子的救命稻草?

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在1996年台海危机以及大陆方面在福建等地部署S-300防空导弹后,台湾省方面又开始推动“擎天计划”,其产物便是今天我们所见到的“云峰”中程导弹。除了“雄风-3”,“天弓”防空导弹也被视为其技术来源之一。在此次量产之前,其实去年4月台媒就曾曝光指出,台当局已向美国申购了600套陀螺仪等导弹关键组件,当时外界认为是这正是为了量产“云峰”中程导弹作准备。


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“云峰”导弹技术来源的争议在于,台“中科院”在研发中程导弹方面一直是双管齐下的,即“擎天计划”由“擎天”载具冲压发动机技术,研制体积和射程皆较大的中程对陆攻击冲压发动机导弹;而“天弓计划”则是在成熟探空火箭技术的基础上,研发中程弹道导弹。表面看来由后者衍生出“云峰”导弹的可能性较小,因为台湾省周边狭小的海空域面积难以供弹道导弹进行全射程飞行测试,但若采用大仰角发射,即使九鹏基地也足以满足试验需要。


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当然“云峰”导弹发展自“擎天计划”的可能性也不小,尤其是其作战优势。虽然中程对陆攻击冲压发动机导弹会因飞行高度较高,比低空飞行的巡航导弹更易被侦测到,但其高空巡航弹道却并非一般弹道导弹的抛物线,所以更不易被拦截。此外其近4马赫的飞行速度和20公里左右的飞行高度,也会对我军防空系统的拦截造成不小难度。对于台军来说,完全值得放弃弹道导弹路线。


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此外在测试上,中程冲压发动机导弹也比弹道导弹更加方便,因为该导弹完全可以利用改变飞行方向的做法,以绕圈飞行的方式来进行远程飞行测试。而且最重要的是,它可以隐藏真正的任务,平时以岸基反舰导弹的名义服役,战时立即转为中程对陆攻击任务,从而避开我军在台海强大的监视网。因此我们在文章开头就指出,“云峰”很可能就是一款中程对陆攻击冲压发动机导弹。

蚍蜉撼树不自量:云峰中程导弹能成“台独”分子的救命稻草?

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  • 按照台媒《中国时报》的描述,“云峰”导弹的作战方式为,发射后先打到20多公里的高空,然后保持平飞并加速至超过4马赫,最后启动冲压发动机,俯冲攻击地面目标。虽然台媒对其性能的描述未必是真,但台当局私下却都对“云峰”导弹推崇不少。比如曾担任民进党当局首位“文人国防部长”的蔡明宪,就曾在其回忆录中透露,陈水扁2008年下台前曾亲赴九鹏基地,视察“云峰”导弹的试射实况,期间还曾数度下令要试验人员让导弹“继续飞一会”。



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当时“云峰”导弹试射完成后美国还曾专门派人跟其交涉。据蔡明宪所述,在试射结束后第二个星期,美国AIT处长杨苏棣就专门跑到了他的办公室,期间双方均支开随从人员,并在蔡明宪办公室后的秘密会议室,交涉了导弹试射情况。蔡明宪当时曾向杨苏棣保证,台军不会主动使用“云峰”导弹攻击大陆军事基地,并且在发射前会事先通知美国,再三“请求”美国人放心。



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13 / 16
从蔡明宪在回忆录里乱扯大旗的情况来看,他无疑是在给自己脸上贴金。不过从他的回忆录中,我们也可以看清一个情况,那就是美国对台当局一直发展攻击性导弹是清清楚楚的,并且还是时不时地纵容一二。美国的意图是清楚明白的,那就是妄图以台湾省这个“下驷”来对付大陆这个“中驷”,而自己则在一旁坐收渔翁之利。不过这个企图在真正的实力面前,却是完全不值一提。



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14 / 16
目前中国正在接收第二个团的S-400防空导弹系统,在第一批已经部署于京畿要地附近的情况下,第二个团很可能会像之前的S-300导弹那样,部署于福建台海附近。如果解放军对台发动攻击,首先无疑将用大量部署在江西等地的地对地导弹,摧毁台军的导弹基地和战机跑道,即使有少量的“云峰”存活下来,也可能刚起飞就会被我方S-400防空导弹攻击,根本没有越过台海的机会。


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15 / 16
解放军在经过数十年的科技强军历程,已经列装了型号更多、射程更远的空基、海基和陆基巡航导弹,再加上威力更加强大的弹道导弹,对台湾省方面早已构成压倒性优势。台当局妄图依靠一两款“决胜兵器”来扭转两岸军事态势,也最终会竹篮打水一场空。那么本期《出鞘》就到这里,我们下期再见。


Http://slide.mil.news.sina.com.cn/k/slide_8_62085_73350.html#p=1


Eucalyptus is not self-contained: Yunfeng medium-range missile can become a life-saving straw for "Taiwan independence" elements?


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1 / 16
According to Taiwan media reports, Taiwan’s "Chinese Academy of Sciences" recently launched a mass production plan for the "Yunfeng" medium-range missile with a range of nearly 2,000 kilometers. It is ready to mass-produce 10 sets of mobile launch systems and 20 war preparation missiles. Northern and central regions of Taiwan Province. The US National Interest website believes that the "Yunfeng" missile can be used by the Taiwan military to attack the hinterland cities of the mainland and pose a threat to the PLA military facilities that may launch attacks on Taiwan Province. So what is the origin of this missile, and it really can deter our army from advancing the great cause of reunification? In this issue of "Sheathing", I will talk about the new life-saving straw of "Taiwan independence" - "Yunfeng" medium-range missile.


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2 / 16
The "Yunfeng" medium-range ramjet missile is one of the few strategic weapons designed by the Taiwan military in order to reach the central and northern targets of the mainland. It began secret research and development after the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996. At that time, the launch test was hidden in "Xiong-3". "The anti-ship missile test project was carried out until the final test was completed in May 2014. According to the US Center for Strategic and International Studies, the original model of Yunfeng has a range of 1,200 kilometers, and the mass-production “Yunfeng” has a range of nearly 2,000 kilometers due to the use of extended range technology.


Eucalyptus is not self-contained: Yunfeng medium-range missile can become a life-saving straw for "Taiwan independence" elements?


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So why is Taiwan Province so keen on medium-range missiles? In fact, in the past few decades, in order to counter the mainland's missile advantage, Taiwan Province originally focused on constructing an air defense system similar to the US theater missile defense system. However, it was discovered that it would take at least 4 pieces to successfully intercept a common tactical missile. Expensive interceptor missiles. Considering that the mainland has deployed at least 1,000 short-range ballistic missiles on the west coast of the strait, the Taiwan authorities believe that instead of struggling to engage in air defense, it is better to let go of the medium-range missiles with attack capabilities.


Eucalyptus is not self-contained: Yunfeng medium-range missile can become a life-saving straw for "Taiwan independence" elements?


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Under the leadership of Taiwan’s “Chinese Academy of Sciences”, Taiwan Province has conducted several confidential plans since the 1970s to develop medium-range missiles. Of course, like other so-called confidential plans, these plans have also been taken very seriously. name. The first is the "Qingfeng Plan", which is based on the US-made "spear" missile technology provided by Israel to develop short-range ballistic missiles with a range of 120 kilometers. Because of its simple technology, the missile has been developed since 1976 and succeeded in 1980, giving the Taiwan authorities a real boost of confidence for some time.


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5 / 16
A week after the successful development of "Qingfeng", the Taiwan authorities immediately launched another "long-range" medium-range ballistic missile development plan, the "Tianma Plan." The plan envisages the study of the key technologies of the disengagement mechanism and the second quarter rocket airborne ignition technology based on the "Qingfeng" missile. In the following seven years, the Taiwan authorities spent NT$18 billion on the development of some equipment such as missile bodies and ground guidance systems. Until 1982, the United States demanded termination of research and development because of concerns about its ability to carry nuclear warheads.


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6 / 16
However, the end of the "Tianma Plan" did not completely end the ambition of the Taiwan authorities to develop medium-range missiles. Instead, they learned a lot of lessons. The most obvious thing is that the follow-up research and development plan has been hidden deeper, for example, until 2001. Some media reporters said that the original "Tianma Plan" was not completely canceled in the same year, but instead changed its face into a "appeasement plan" and continued to secretly proceed. The "Appeasement Program" has a high level of confidentiality. It is reported that the "Chief of the Staff" of the Taiwan Army was specifically organized and implemented, and Chen Shui-bian also regularly listened to the development progress.


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7 / 16
After the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996 and the mainland's deployment of S-300 air defense missiles in Fujian and other places, the Taiwan Province began to promote the "Sky Sky Plan". The product is the "Yunfeng" medium-range missile we have seen today. In addition to the "Xiong-3", the "Tiangong" air defense missile is also regarded as one of its technical sources. Before the mass production, in fact, in April last year, Taiwanese media had revealed that the Taiwan authorities had purchased 600 sets of key components such as gyroscopes from the United States. At that time, it was believed that this was for mass production of "Yunfeng" medium-range missiles. Prepare.



8 / 16
The controversy over the source of "Yunfeng" missile technology is that Taiwan's "Chinese Academy of Sciences" has always been a two-pronged approach in the development of medium-range missiles, that is, the "Qingtian Plan" is carried out by the "Qingtian" vehicle with ramjet technology, and the development volume and range are relatively large. The medium-range land attack ramjet missiles; and the "Tianbow Plan" is based on the mature sounding rocket technology, the development of medium-range ballistic missiles. On the surface, it is unlikely that the "Yunfeng" missile will be derived from the latter, because the narrow sea and air area around Taiwan Province is difficult for ballistic missiles to conduct full-range flight tests, but if large elevation angles are used, even Jiupeng base Sufficient to meet the needs of the test.



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Of course, the possibility of the "Yunfeng" missile developing from the "Qingtian Plan" is not small, especially its operational advantage. Although the medium-range land-attack ramjet missiles are more likely to be detected because of their higher flying altitudes than the low-altitude cruise missiles, their high-altitude cruise trajectories are not parabolic to general ballistic missiles, so they are less likely to be intercepted. In addition, its flight speed of nearly 4 Mach and the flight altitude of about 20 kilometers will also make it difficult for the interception of our air defense system. For the Taiwan military, it is entirely worthwhile to abandon the ballistic missile route.



10 / 16
In addition, in the test, the medium-range ramjet missile is also more convenient than the ballistic missile, because the missile can completely use the method of changing the flight direction to conduct the long-range flight test in a circular flight. And most importantly, it can hide the real mission, usually served in the name of shore-based anti-ship missiles, and immediately turned into a medium-range land attack mission during the war, thus avoiding the strong surveillance network of our army in the Taiwan Strait. Therefore, we pointed out at the beginning of the article that "Yunfeng" is probably a medium-range land-attack ramjet missile.


Eucalyptus is not self-contained: Yunfeng medium-range missile can become a life-saving straw for "Taiwan independence" elements?


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According to the description of the Taiwanese media "China Times", the "Yunfeng" missile's combat mode is that it will hit an altitude of more than 20 kilometers after launching, then maintain a level flight and accelerate to more than 4 Mach, and finally start the ramjet engine and dive to attack the ground target. . Although Taiwanese media's description of its performance may not be true, the Taiwan authorities have privately praised the "Yunfeng" missile. For example, Cai Mingxian, who served as the first "literary defense minister" of the DPP authorities, revealed in his memoirs that Chen Shui-bian had visited the Jiupeng base before he stepped down in 2008 to inspect the "Yunfeng" missile test. Several times ordered the testers to let the missiles "continue to fly for a while."





12 / 16
After the completion of the "Yunfeng" missile test, the United States also sent people to negotiate with him. According to Cai Mingxian, in the second week after the test, the US AIT Director Yang Suzhen specially ran to his office, during which both sides opened up the entourage and negotiated the missile test in the secret meeting room behind Cai Mingxian’s office. Shoot the situation. At that time, Cai Mingxian assured Yang Suzhen that the Taiwan military would not actively use the "Yunfeng" missile to attack the mainland military base, and would inform the United States before the launch, and repeatedly "requested" the Americans to rest assured.





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Judging from Cai Mingxian’s distraction in the memoirs, he is undoubtedly putting gold on his face. However, from his memoirs, we can also see a situation in which the US authorities have always developed aggressive missiles against Taiwan, and they still condone one or two from time to time. The intention of the United States is clear. It is to try to deal with the "Lieutenant" of the mainland with the "squatting" of Taiwan Province, and to sit on the side of the fishermen. However, this attempt is in the face of real strength, but it is totally worth mentioning.



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At present, China is receiving the second group of S-400 air defense missile systems. In the case that the first batch has been deployed near the Gyeonggi site, the second group is likely to be deployed in Fujian like the previous S-300 missile. Near the Taiwan Strait. If the People’s Liberation Army launches an attack against Taiwan, it will undoubtedly use a large number of ground-to-ground missiles deployed in places such as Jiangxi to destroy the Taiwan’s missile bases and warplanes. Even if a small number of “Yunfeng” survives, it may just take off. Attacked by our S-400 anti-aircraft missiles, there is no chance to cross the Taiwan Strait.



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