VALID Opposition votes for GE2011 was 803,482; but 654,289 (ex. TP GRC) for GE2015...

... please correct me if my calculations are wrong.

wikipedia.org/wiki/Singaporean_general_election,_2011#Results_summary
wikipedia.org/wiki/Singaporean_general_election,_2015#Results_summary

Valid votes EXCLUDES both invalid (e.g. blank or spoilt) votes and those who did not vote.

Total valid votes for GE2011 (excluding walkover votes from Tanjong Pagar GRC) = 2,015,636
Total valid votes for GE2015 = 2,257,016

For a fairer comparison:
Total valid votes for GE2015 (excluding 116,391 valid votes from Tanjong Pagar GRC) = 2,140,625

Difference between both GEs (excluding Tanjong Pagar GRC for the sake of fairness) = + 124,989

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As for the "New Citizens" issue, according to:
straitstimes.com/singapore/goal-15000-25000-new-citizens-a-year
nptd.gov.sg/Portals/0/Homepage/Highlights/min-grace-fu-cos-2015-speech.pdf
sgcoldtruth.com/prc-lets-all-rush-to-apply-for-pr-and-citizenship-election-are-over
an average of about 19,500 PRs per year for the past seven years (whole of 2008 to whole of 2014) were granted citizenship.

That also happens to be roughly the same average number of people DYING (mostly those above 60 years old, who were probably also mostly pro-PAP) in Singapore per year since 2011:
singstat.gov.sg/statistics/visualising-data/charts/number-of-births-and-deaths
singstat.gov.sg/statistics/latest-data#16

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Finally, according to:
ica.gov.sg/data/resources/docs/Media%20Releases/SDB/Annual%20RBD%20Report_2013.pdf (page 10 of the pdf file)
about 200,000 Sinkie babies were born from mid-1990 to mid-1994, and were eligible to vote for the first time in their lives this year.

Total valid PAP votes for GE2011 (excluding walkover votes from Tanjong Pagar GRC) = 1,212,154
Total valid PAP votes for GE2015 = 1,576,784

For a fairer comparison:
Total valid PAP votes for GE2015 (excluding 90,448 valid PAP votes from Tanjong Pagar GRC) = 1,486,336

Difference between both GEs (excluding Tanjong Pagar GRC for the sake of fairness) = + 274,182
I bet that the VAST majority of these additional 274,182 valid PAP votes came from the roughly 150,000 votes that the Opposition lost (as can be seen in the title of my thread) AND the roughly 200,000 new Sinkie voters, who were born from mid-1990 to mid-1994; of course, some of them probably did not vote or spoilt their votes, and some of those new Sinkie voters must have voted in Tanjong Pagar GRC, which I'm excluding.

Re: VALID Opposition votes for GE2011 was 803,482; but 654,289 (ex. TP GRC) for GE201

jw5 said:

Those who died during those 4 years would not have been pro-pap if they had died poor and/or exhausted. :(

takashi said:

As explained in my thread above, I'm afraid it's really true that the nearly 80,000 PRs who became "new citizens" (during the four years from 2011 to 2014) were NOT the ones that caused the significant swing, simply because most of them were only replacing the nearly 80,000 Sinkie men and women (most of whom were above 60 years old and probably pro-PAP) who died during those four years.

Click to expand...

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If that's the case, then assuming those 80,000 dead Sinkies did NOT vote at all for GE2011 (because they were too sick), I'll add these 80,000 "new citizens" to the 150,000 voters the Opposition lost for GE2015 and the roughly 200,000 new Sinkie voters (who were born from mid-1990 to mid-1994), which adds up to roughly 430,000 POTENTIAL new PAP voters, roughly 270,000 of whom ACTUALLY VALIDLY voted for the PAP, while the rest did not vote (many of whom were probably overseas for whatever reason) or spoilt their votes, and some of those new Sinkie voters (both "new citizens" and those who were born in Singapore from mid-1990 to mid-1994) must have voted in Tanjong Pagar GRC (which I'm excluding for the sake of fairness to GE2011); also, some of those born in Singapore during the first half of the 1990s might have MIGRATED with their parents to other countries before this year, possibly even before GE2011.

Re: VALID Opposition votes for GE2011 was 803,482; but 654,289 (ex. TP GRC) for GE201

2.46m were registered, and the turnout was 2.3m. thus invalid votes were about 43k. i wonder if the no-show number of 160k included sinkies who were stationed abroad.

anyway, i doubt sinkie births from mid-1990 to mid-1994 (short span of 5 years) is that high at 200,000. there are about 200,000 sinkie citizens at that age group, i.e. 20-24 years old as of 2014 (source reference below). but as of 2014 when that number was tallied, that age group also included naturalized shitizens who were young adult foreigners. at citizen births of ~35k per year from 1990 to 1994 (it's now trending 31k per year) the number attributed to sinkies who are born and bred in sg in that age group should be no more than 175k. with many of them in overseas universities or overseas stints at the time of the ge, my estimate is roughly 100k to 120k of born and bred sinkie youths in that age group who remain in sg. the remaining balance of 154k is left for one conspicuous category, so conspicuous that no official outlet will publish it outright. it's so buried in the math that you have to decipher it.

http://www.nptd.gov.sg/portals/0/homepage/highlights/population-in-brief-2014.pdf

Re: VALID Opposition votes for GE2011 was 803,482; but 654,289 (ex. TP GRC) for GE201

Every GE, there are the old folks who died and could not vote, but at the same time, there is also a new batch of young first-time voters to make up the numbers.

I'm not sure if Singapore has a pool of people who are disqualified from voting e.g. convicts?

Re: VALID Opposition votes for GE2011 was 803,482; but 654,289 (ex. TP GRC) for GE201

eatshitndie said:

i wonder if the no-show number of 160k included sinkies who were stationed abroad.

Click to expand...

According to:
"Strategies in place for wooing overseas Singaporeans back home - Channel NewsAsia"
https://archive.is/KtFbb
(By Imelda Saad, POSTED: 30 Jul 2015 21:45)
"There are an estimated 200,000 Singaporeans residing overseas."

eatshitndie said:

my estimate is roughly 100k to 120k of born and bred sinkie youths in that age group who remain in sg.

Click to expand...

And I bet most of them voted for the PAP.
Simply because most of them have just started working or are still studying (as University students), and I think it's likely that most of them will be too scared to vote for any opposition party, and will end up voting for the same party that their own parents (especially their mothers!) vote for, i.e. the PAP!
Especially since the PAP government has been trying its best to BRIBE them, one way or another, during the past four years!

eatshitndie said:

the remaining balance of 154k is left for one conspicuous category, so conspicuous that no official outlet will publish it outright.

Click to expand...

GE2011 Opposition voters and the roughly 80,000 PRs that became "new citizens" between mid-2011 and mid-2015?
Those "swing" voters who voted for some opposition party in 2011 obviously changed their minds and voted for PAP this year, especially if they ever voted for the PAP before!
And even more especially if they were 56 to 59 years old in 2011 and voted for some opposition party, and are now 60 to 63 this year and preparing to die (or retiring) and would like the PAP to help them live the remaining years of their lives in peace and comfort!

eatshitndie said:

it's so buried in the math that you have to decipher it.

Click to expand...

Actually, the number of valid Opposition votes is simply the difference between the total valid votes and the total valid PAP votes, which is clearly displayed on those websites I linked to.

Re: VALID Opposition votes for GE2011 was 803,482; but 654,289 (ex. TP GRC) for GE201

laksaboy said:

I'm not sure if Singapore has a pool of people who are disqualified from voting e.g. convicts?

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Yes, those whose names are NOT on the "Register of Electors" because they did not vote at the most recent election (whether General, Presidential, or even "By-") and failed to inform the Elections Department by providing a valid reason, e.g. overseas, sick, etc.

Prisoners certainly won't be given leave to vote because they'll most probably vote AGAINST the PAP, even if a Polling Station is set up INSIDE Changi Prison Complex. And it's too troublesome for the prison officers to manage that event anyway.

Ex-prisoners, i.e. if they've finished serving their sentences, can register to vote if they want and if their names happened to be removed from the Register of Electors while they were in prison and could not vote in any election during their imprisonment.

Re: VALID Opposition votes for GE2011 was 803,482; but 654,289 (ex. TP GRC) for GE201

takashi said:

......and the roughly 80,000 PRs that became "new citizens" between mid-2011 and mid-2015?

Click to expand...

and from 2008 to 2011, there were roughly 80,000 PRs who became citizens too. they most likely continue to vote pap.

Re: VALID Opposition votes for GE2011 was 803,482; but 654,289 (ex. TP GRC) for GE201

eatshitndie said:

and from 2008 to 2011, there were roughly 80,000 PRs who became citizens too. they most likely continue to vote pap.

Click to expand...

Yes, but since they were already counted among the GE2011 valid PAP voters, they can't be counted among the GE2015 valid PAP "swing" voters; which means that the vast majority (at least 70%) of the 274,182 ADDITIONAL (excluding Tanjong Pagar) valid PAP votes came from GE2011 Opposition voters and early-1990s Sinkie babies, with the remaining nearly 80,000 "swing" votes coming from the PRs who became "new citizens" between mid-2011 and mid-2015.

Re: VALID Opposition votes for GE2011 was 803,482; but 654,289 (ex. TP GRC) for GE201

takashi said:

Yes, but since they were already counted among the GE2011 valid PAP voters, they can't be counted among the GE2015 valid PAP "swing" voters; which means that the vast majority (at least 70%) of the 274,182 ADDITIONAL (excluding Tanjong Pagar) valid PAP votes came from GE2011 Opposition voters and early-1990s Sinkie babies, with the remaining nearly 80,000 "swing" votes coming from the PRs who became "new citizens" between mid-2011 and mid-2015.

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ok, noted. that makes more sense as the math now adds up with about 194k comprising sinkie birthers who come of age and former oppo voters. now i wonder how many former oppo voters flipped to the pap.

Re: VALID Opposition votes for GE2011 was 803,482; but 654,289 (ex. TP GRC) for GE201

eatshitndie said:

now i wonder how many former oppo voters flipped to the pap.

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Assuming ALL of the above-mentioned 654,289 (excluding 25,943 valid SingFirst votes from Tanjong Pagar GRC) valid Opposition voters for GE2015 were among the 803,482 valid Opposition voters for GE2011, then the maximum number of flippers to the PAP is 803,482 - 654,289 = 149,193, some of whom probably did not vote this year or spoilt their votes.

Re: VALID Opposition votes for GE2011 was 803,482; but 654,289 (ex. TP GRC) for GE201

takashi said:

... please correct me if my calculations are wrong. ...

Click to expand...

No need to work on figures like Einstein to figure out how pappies won big.

Take into account new imported sinkies + those locals older votes who die die are pappies supporters + those uneducated local sinkies who believe voting is not secret, you can still figure out why pappies won big.

Without support from those foreign fake sinkies, pappies would still win but marginally and not big sweep.

Re: VALID Opposition votes for GE2011 was 803,482; but 654,289 (ex. TP GRC) for GE201

bigboss said:

Without support from those foreign fake sinkies, pappies would still win but marginally and not big sweep.

Click to expand...

As can be calculated from:

takashi said:

For a fairer comparison:
Total valid votes for GE2015 (excluding 116,391 valid votes from Tanjong Pagar GRC) = 2,140,625

For a fairer comparison:
Total valid PAP votes for GE2015 (excluding 90,448 valid PAP votes from Tanjong Pagar GRC) = 1,486,336

Click to expand...

without those roughly 80,000 PRs that became "new citizens" between mid-2011 and mid-2015, the upward swing for the PAP from GE2011 would still be at least 5% or 6%.

Re: VALID Opposition votes for GE2011 was 803,482; but 654,289 (ex. TP GRC) for GE201

takashi said:

As can be calculated from:

without those roughly 80,000 PRs that became "new citizens" between mid-2011 and mid-2015, the upward swing for the PAP from GE2011 would still be at least 5% or 6%.

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if your numbers are correct, and so far i believe they are, they point to a very sizable shift of 149k former oppo votes going to the pap. that's almost 2 times the new shitizens' number of 80k and 3 times the sinkie babies born in the 90s who voted pap (~50k). presumably, half or a sizable portion of the sinkie babies born in the 90s who are eligible to vote in 2015 voted oppo, as not all voted pap.

Re: VALID Opposition votes for GE2011 was 803,482; but 654,289 (ex. TP GRC) for GE201

The white scums cheated together with the blue rubbish.

Re: VALID Opposition votes for GE2011 was 803,482; but 654,289 (ex. TP GRC) for GE201

Can you summarized everything above in one sentence??

Re: VALID Opposition votes for GE2011 was 803,482; but 654,289 (ex. TP GRC) for GE201

eatshitndie said:

...sinkie babies born in the 90s who voted pap (~50k).

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My guess is AT LEAST 60k, because there's a 99% HIGH chance that some of those 149k GE2011 valid Opposition voters (none of whom voted in Tanjong Pagar) and some of the 80k new "shitizens" did not vote this year or spoilt their votes. Also, some of the 80k new "shitizens" might have voted in Tanjong Pagar GRC this year, which I'm excluding in order to more fairly compare GE2015 and GE2011.

Furthermore, there were nearly 80k Sinkies who DIED between mid-2011 and mid-2015, and there's a good chance that at least 10k or 20k of them voted for the PAP in GE2011 (while the rest stayed at home or in hospitals or nursing homes, etc.) before dying, in which case at least 10k or 20k of the nearly 80k valid PAP votes by new "shitizens" for GE2015 would be counted as REPLACEMENTS for the valid PAP votes by dead Sinkies for GE2011, causing the GE2015 PAP vote count for the 1990s Sinkie babies to rise to at least 70k or 80k; and remember, this is NOT counting another potential 10k valid PAP votes by these 1990s Sinkie babies in Tanjong Pagar.

eatshitndie said:

presumably, half or a sizable portion of the sinkie babies born in the 90s who are eligible to vote in 2015 voted oppo, as not all voted pap.

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My guess is LESS than half of them voted for the Opposition, and they were mostly young MEN.

Re: VALID Opposition votes for GE2011 was 803,482; but 654,289 (ex. TP GRC) for GE201

bigboss said:

No need to work on figures like Einstein to figure out how pappies won big.

Take into account new imported sinkies + those locals older votes who die die are pappies supporters + those uneducated local sinkies who believe voting is not secret, you can still figure out why pappies won big.

Without support from those foreign fake sinkies, pappies would still win but marginally and not big sweep.

Click to expand...

This is B.S. You're a downright despicable PAPib. Stop generating a false flag and divert attention from potential fraud committed here in this election! Damn you PAPib! We want the truth, not false flags!

Re: VALID Opposition votes for GE2011 was 803,482; but 654,289 (ex. TP GRC) for GE201

xpo2015 said:

Can you summarized everything above in one sentence??

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Yes, I can:

The 10% upward swing for GE2015 valid PAP votes was caused mostly (at least 70%) by GE2011 Opposition voters (changing their minds and voting for PAP) and new Sinkie voters (who were born from mid-1990 to mid-1994), followed by less than 80,000 PRs that became "new citizens" between mid-2011 and mid-2015.

Re: VALID Opposition votes for GE2011 was 803,482; but 654,289 (ex. TP GRC) for GE201

two words: bungsak & kelong!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!