Singapore Property Bubble 2012: Here we go again

[sense]

Singapore Property Bubble 2011-2012

3 October 2011

Rate of increase in private home prices continues to moderate in 3rd quarter 2011

URA's flash estimate of the private residential property index for 3rd Quarter 2011 shows that the rate of increase in private residential property prices has continued to moderate for the 8th consecutive quarter since 4th Quarter 2009.

The private residential property index rose from 203.0 points in 2nd Quarter 2011 to 205.7 points in 3rd Quarter 2011. This represents an increase of 1.3%, compared to the 2.0% increase in the previous quarter (see Annex A).

Prices of non-landed private residential properties increased by 0.8% in Core Central Region, 1.1% in Rest of Central Region and 2.1% in Outside Central Region in the quarter (see Annex B). In comparison, in 2nd Quarter 2011, prices of non-landed private residential properties increased by 1.6% in Core Central Region, 1.1% in Rest of Central Region and 1.7% in Outside Central Region.

The flash estimates are compiled based on transaction prices given in caveats lodged during the first ten weeks of the quarter supplemented by information on the number of new units sold. The statistics will be updated 4 weeks later when URA releases the full 3rd Quarter 2011 real estate statistics, when more data on the caveats lodged and the take-up of new projects are captured. Past data have shown that the difference between the quarterly price changes indicated by the flash estimate and the actual price changes could be significant when the change is small. The public is advised to interpret the flash estimates with caution.

 

[1sickpuppy II]

Got rise sure got fall one lah. the only thing to worry about is when.

 

[sense]

http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_738618.html

Is the Singapore property market headed for a fall?
Report predicts 30% fall in home prices on gloomy global outlook, shrinking demand and oversupply
Published on Nov 27, 2011

Property has been enjoying a boom like no other in the past two years but if Standard Chartered's experts are right, the good times are coming to an end.

The bank's analysts have turned markedly bearish, with a report predicting residential rents and prices plunging 30 per cent over the next three years.

This will be a painful reversal given that prices surged 18 per cent last year - as Singapore bounced back from the global financial crisis - and a further 6 per cent in the first nine months of this year.

Stanchart sees problems ahead, including slower population growth due to stricter immigration policies and the unprecedented supply of completed homes coming onstream.

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Boom and bust cycles

'Property markets go through cycles, just like economies. Only if you are in an emerging market where there is a long period of strong economic growth, might you have a long property market upcycle.'

DTZ'S HEAD OF ASIA-PACIFIC RESEARCH CHUA CHOR HOON

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Buying sentiment may be affected

'The moment when potential buyers feel insecure about their future source of income is when they pull back from buying or begin to divest.'

CHESTERTON SUNTEC INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH HEAD COLIN TAN

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Population growth could boost demand

'If the economic crisis is not too severe, this will help to mitigate the sharpness of any price correction.'

DR CHUA YANG LIANG, head of research at Jones Lang LaSalle South-east Asia

 

[sense]

 

[Narong Wongwan]

No worries just let in more rich foreigners....worse come to worst then liberalize the laws to enable more foreign ownership....no worries land in sinkieland is limited.....it can only go up and up....our Govt will make sure of that!

 

[sense]

http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2011/11/28/singapore-home-prices-may-be-poised-to-plunge/
http://www.sammyboy.com/showthread.php?105207-Singapore-Home-Prices-May-Be-Poised-to-Plunge-!!!!!

 

[Cestbon]

Expected base on the graph it will go down to 140.

 

[sense]

Govt to impose additional buyer's stamp duty for residential property

The Government has imposed a hefty new 10 per cent stamp duty on foreigners, excluding PRs, and companies buying residential property in Singapore to help cool the market.

It says the move is designed to create a stable and sustainable market, after significant price rises in recent times. Prices of private homes are up 16 per cent from a recent peak in the second quarter of 2008, it noted.

The stamp duty, effective from Dec 8, is on top of the existing buyers' stamp duty, which is 1 per cent for the first $180,000 of the purchase price, 2 per cent for the next $180,000 and 3 per cent for the rest.

Permanent residents who already own a property, and are buying a second or subsequent property will also pay an extra stamp duty of 3 per cent.

http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_742249.html

 

[sense]

 

[sense]

 

[laksaboy]

Remember this?

http://news.asiaone.com/News/Latest+News/Business/Story/A1Story20110320-269085.html

MM: Your HDB home value will never drop
RazorTV
Sun, Mar 20, 2011

As most Singaporeans live in HDB flats, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew strives to make home ownership the most valuable possession for Singaporeans.

"85% of Singaporeans are living in HDB flats and we intend to keep the values of these homes up. It will never go down," said MM Lee.

The MP for Tanjong Pagar said that home renewal and refurbishing programmes in Singapore ensure that the value of housing here will continue rising.

He was speaking at the launch of Tanjong Pagar GRC's 5-year Master Plan on Saturday.

Before election: Sweet talk, making fantastic promises
After election: Pinning you down and fucking you in the ass.

How you like your PAP government now, Sinkies?

 

[sense]

Remember this?

http://news.asiaone.com/News/Latest%2BNews/Business/Story/A1Story20110320-269085.html
MM: Your HDB home value will never drop
RazorTV
Sun, Mar 20, 2011

As most Singaporeans live in HDB flats, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew strives to make home ownership the most valuable possession for Singaporeans.
"85% of Singaporeans are living in HDB flats and we intend to keep the values of these homes up. It will never go down," said MM Lee.
The MP for Tanjong Pagar said that home renewal and refurbishing programmes in Singapore ensure that the value of housing here will continue rising.

He was speaking at the launch of Tanjong Pagar GRC's 5-year Master Plan on Saturday.


Before election: Sweet talk, making fantastic promises
After election: Pinning you down and fucking you in the ass.

How you like your PAP government now, Sinkies?

LKY is losing it. HDB RPI's shows why:

 

[VeryWise]

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jun2011/pi2011062_946842.htm

May not. Singapore has the world densest concentration of millionaire households.

 

[Unrepented]

All technical analysis get thrown out the window in a irrational market. :o

 

[sense]

All technical analysis get thrown out the window in a irrational market. :o

Critique based on empirical findings are more meaningful than a lemming-like speculation.

Andrei, Shynkevich. “Performance of technical analysis in growth and small cap segments of the US equity market.” Journal of Banking & Finance 36, no. 1 (January 2012): 193-208.

Atsalakis, George S., Emmanouil M. Dimitrakakis, and Constantinos D. Zopounidis. “Elliott Wave Theory and neuro-fuzzy systems, in stock market prediction: The WASP system.” Expert Systems with Applications 38, no. 8 (August 2011): 9196-9206.

Chen, Yu-Shan, and Bi-Yu Chen. “Utilizing patent analysis to explore the cooperative competition relationship of the two LED companies: Nichia and Osram.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78, no. 2 (February 2011): 294-302.

Gorgulho, António, Rui Neves, and Nuno Horta. “Applying a GA kernel on optimizing technical analysis rules for stock picking and portfolio composition.” Expert Systems with Applications 38, no. 11 (October 2011): 14072-14085.

Jasemi, Milad, Ali M. Kimiagari, and A. Memariani. “A modern neural network model to do stock market timing on the basis of the ancient investment technique of Japanese Candlestick.” Expert Systems with Applications 38, no. 4 (April 2011): 3884-3890.

Lin, Xiaowei, Zehong Yang, and Yixu Song. “Intelligent stock trading system based on improved technical analysis and Echo State Network.” Expert Systems with Applications 38, no. 9 (September 2011): 11347-11354.

Rodríguez-González, Alejandro, Ángel García-Crespo, Ricardo Colomo-Palacios, Fernando Guldrís Iglesias, and Juan Miguel Gómez-Berbís. “CAST: Using neural networks to improve trading systems based on technical analysis by means of the RSI financial indicator.” Expert Systems with Applications 38, no. 9 (September 2011): 11489-11500.
Tan, Zhiyong, Chai Quek, and Philip Y.K. Cheng. “Stock trading with cycles: A financial application of ANFIS and reinforcement learning.” Expert Systems with Applications 38, no. 5 (May 2011): 4741-4755.

Troiano, Luigi, and Pravesh Kriplani. “Supporting trading strategies by inverse fuzzy transform.” Fuzzy Sets and Systems 180, no. 1 (October 1, 2011): 121-145.
Wei, Liang-Ying, Tai-Liang Chen, and Tien-Hwa Ho. “A hybrid model based on adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system to forecast Taiwan stock market.” Expert Systems with Applications 38, no. 11 (October 2011): 13625-13631.

 

[kulgai]

LKY is losing it.

No, I don't think so. LKY is absolutely right. In fact, all properties HDB or otherwise, will always be on the uptrend in Singapore in the long run. The key phrase here is 'in the long run'. Admittedly, there will be rollercoaster rides in between due to cooling counter-measures, economic conditions, etc. These are corrections which present buying opportunities for the savvy investors. Even with the latest cooling measures, not all properties will correct in the same manner. Core area condos may plunge 30-40%, mass market condo might plunge 15-25%, landed may go down slightly only - 10% perhaps. This could be yet another opportunity to pick up bargains.

 

[sense]

No, I don't think so. LKY is absolutely right. In fact, all properties HDB or otherwise, will always be on the uptrend in Singapore in the long run. The key phrase here is 'in the long run'. Admittedly, there will be rollercoaster rides in between due to cooling counter-measures, economic conditions, etc. These are corrections which present buying opportunities for the savvy investors. Even with the latest cooling measures, not all properties will correct in the same manner. Core area condos may plunge 30-40%, mass market condo might plunge 15-25%, landed may go down slightly only - 10% perhaps. This could be yet another opportunity to pick up bargains.

Your god said "It will *never* go down". You may want to either brush up your English or check your dictionary. While your might and may are interesting, history has already proven that there are times when the property markets (private and public) are down... yes, it does recover, that's a separate point.

 

[da dick]

Your god said "It will *never* go down". You may want to either brush up your English or check your dictionary. While your might and may are interesting, history has already proven that there are times when the property markets (private and public) are down... yes, it does recover, that's a separate point.

it will NEVER g down... as l;ong as they let in more FTs, and never bother to build enough to house them all. expect more overcrowed bangla hostels in a neighbourhood near you soon,.

 

[kulgai]

Your god said "It will *never* go down". You may want to either brush up your English or check your dictionary. While your might and may are interesting, history has already proven that there are times when the property markets (private and public) are down... yes, it does recover, that's a separate point.

First off, he's no god and certainly no god of mine. Have I ruffled yr feathers just because I present things in its proper perspective? Don't worry about my English language proficiency, I'm more than proficient to comprehend what you can't. I repeat - property in Singapore will never go down, in the long run. If you fail to understand basic english, I can't help you further. In the last 50 years of Singapore's history, property prices have risen exponentially. Those with the correct mindsets have benefitted tremendously. An index that begins at 5 and end up at 200 can hardly be called downtrend! The hiccups now and then in between are corrections to be expected in a dynamic market. If the property index goes down 30% in the next year or two, it is doesnt mean property is headed south for good. It is still a correction on an uptrend.

 

[sense]

Fourth projection from Jones Lang LaSalle for 2012: http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/1171336/1/.html