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- Jul 25, 2008
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I think US $ continues to weaken because US has been printing more than market demand. Also sentiments are not good with potential of debt default so that brings down $.
americans are hoarding cash and saving more as instinctive reactions to an uncertain future. because the liquidity of usd suddenly cramps up after the housing crash, the fed encourages the treasury to print more to offset the lack of liquidity in the economy, hoping inflation can be tamed. due to lower demands for goods and services and lack of consumer confidence, inflation hasn't been rearing its ugly head just yet. shit will hit the fan if 3 things happen at once or close to each other: supply disruptions to energy cause energy cost to rise resulting in rise of cost in everything dependent on energy, catastrophic destruction of crops and livestock leading to spikes in cost of food and groceries, and the sudden return of consumer and corporate confidence which in turn would open the checkbook floodgates on an otherwise shy spending spell causing too much cash and liquidity chasing shortages (inflation). the treasury needs to constantly and diligently watch liquidity and inflationary trends and rapidly recover freshly printed mint from the market the best way they can. unfortunately, it is not run by the most fiscal conservative leaders and teams today, and any new mint going into the banks and streets will most likely not be recovered, recycled and reduced in a timely manner.
the other major factor of usd decline is the rise of the euro, especially in the demand for the euro as an alternative to the usd since oil started trading in euros not too many years ago. china have already started diversifying their reserve holdings in euros in huge amounts. japan attempted to dump billions of usd not too long ago by disposing of it secretly via switzerland. 2 japanese ministry of finance officials were caught trying to cross with billions of us bonds in a couple of suitcases. and that was just the tip of the iceberg.
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