Lucky Tan tells us why S'pore fertility rate is so f***ing low!

[Maximilian Chua-Heng]

I thought it's an insightful read....so here you go.

Fertility Rate falls to disastrous low...

Singapore's fertility rate has fallen to a record low of 1.16[Link] per woman. This is down from last year's rate of 1.22.

He said the government would continue encouraging couples to produce more children, but admitted that raising the fertility rate would take time.
"For the foreseeable future, we will need to tap on immigration to augment our poprriulation, to support economic growth and to mitigate the impact of ageing," - Wong Kan Seng[Link]

Looks like falling fertility rate will now be used as the reason to import more foreigners. In the past we were told we need foreigners for their special skills. Then we were told we need foreigners to create jobs for Singaporeans. We have also been told that foreigners are here to take up jobs that Singaporeans do not want. Now the latest reason for increasing the foreign influx is our fertility rate is low. Singapore has the lowest fertility rate in the world if we count independent nations - if we count territories Singapore is 223 out of 226. We are above only Hong Kong & Macau which are part of China[Link].

I want to show you some charts of results of some countries that have intervened when the fertility rates fell[Australia][Sweden][Finland] and managed to turn their fertility rates around. You noticed that low fertility rates correlate with high population densities in places such as Hong Kong & Macau and Japan where the cost of housing and living is also high relative to income. So importing foreigners and over-populating our little island is likely going to make it worse - importing foreigners using low fertility as an excuse is going to plunge us into a disastrous vicious cycle....disastrous for locally born Singaporeans who will diminsih in numbers but perhaps acceptable to the PAP govt that sees Singapore as Singapore Inc so it doesn't matter to them where workers come from so long as GDP grows.

Importing foreigners and quickly converting them to Singaporeans does not solve the problem of an ageing population because they too will age and we will have an even bigger ageing population to deal with in the coming decades. So the long term solution has to be to get fertility rate up and reach a stable steady state fertility of 2.1. So far the govt has been unsuccessful.... and ineffective. How come they can do it in Australia but not in Singapore?....I tell you one of the reasons...but lets start with a story............

On Friday I took a taxi instead of the bus home to save time but tbe idea backfired. I paid a whopping $52 for my taxi fare. Yes, $52! Why? There was an accident somewhere at Rochor Road and I spent something like 1.5 hours stuck in the jam on the ECP. Spend money and get home later...tired, frustrated and poorer. The only good thing about being in the taxi for half an hour was the taxi driver was quite talkative and had plenty to say about the govt - some of which is not so suitable for posting on my blog. Somewhere along the ECP the taxi said, "I felt the govt 'cheated' me when I had my third child". Cheated? That is a bit of a strong word to use. He told me that he had his 3rd child when he heard that govt was giving out $20K to encourage people to have more children. When his 3rd child was born, he waited for the govt to send him a cheque. He waited and waited but there was no cheque in the mail so he called up the ministry to find out what is going on. They told him the $20K is given out in the form of tax rebates and he would have to claim as rebates when he filed his taxes. It had to be used within 5 years. When he couldn't use up the $20K in 5 years they extended it to 7 years. At the end of 7 years, he got about $2K in rebates and $18K of the rebates was 'returned' to the govt. The same thing happens to many other lower income couples - they get little when they have children. The govt also gives out something known as baby bonus in which the govt gives out matching funds up to $8K(?) dollar for dollar to parents who put money in a baby bonus account - poor parents usually do not get the full amount because they cannot afford to set aside the money.

See the problem with these incentives. They give more money to the richer parents who are usually not motivated by money since they already have plenty and deny financial incentives to poor parents who love children and would be motivated by financial help. When the PAP says it wants to encourage Singaporeans to have more children, they do not mean ALL Singaporeans....they just want rich Singaporeans to have more children, They don't like the idea of parents who are not rich having more children hence they give out money in the form of tax rebates. In the eighties, they were even more blatant. The incentives were targetted at graduate mothers to have more children - you may ask why graduate mothers and not fathers? It is mentioned in one of LKY's speeches that he believes intelligence comes from the mother's genes[Read Population and Eugenics: Singapore's population policies]. In Australia, Finland and Sweden their policies to increase fertility rate encourages all parents to have more children not just selected members of society. That is why they have succeeded and the PAP govt has not....but PAP's failure is not going to bring disaster to itself but to ordinary Singaporeans who are fast losing their identity and their future.

http://singaporemind.blogspot.com/2011/01/fertility-rate-falls-to-disastrous-lows.html

 

[Dreamer1]

I thought it's an insightful read....so here you go.

Fertility Rate falls to disastrous low...

Singapore's fertility rate has fallen to a record low of 1.16[Link] per woman. This is down from last year's rate of 1.22.

He said the government would continue encouraging couples to produce more children, but admitted that raising the fertility rate would take time.
"For the foreseeable future, we will need to tap on immigration to augment our poprriulation, to support economic growth and to mitigate the impact of ageing," - Wong Kan Seng[Link]

Looks like falling fertility rate will now be used as the reason to import more foreigners. In the past we were told we need foreigners for their special skills. Then we were told we need foreigners to create jobs for Singaporeans. We have also been told that foreigners are here to take up jobs that Singaporeans do not want. Now the latest reason for increasing the foreign influx is our fertility rate is low. Singapore has the lowest fertility rate in the world if we count independent nations - if we count territories Singapore is 223 out of 226. We are above only Hong Kong & Macau which are part of China[Link].

I want to show you some charts of results of some countries that have intervened when the fertility rates fell[Australia][Sweden][Finland] and managed to turn their fertility rates around. You noticed that low fertility rates correlate with high population densities in places such as Hong Kong & Macau and Japan where the cost of housing and living is also high relative to income. So importing foreigners and over-populating our little island is likely going to make it worse - importing foreigners using low fertility as an excuse is going to plunge us into a disastrous vicious cycle....disastrous for locally born Singaporeans who will diminsih in numbers but perhaps acceptable to the PAP govt that sees Singapore as Singapore Inc so it doesn't matter to them where workers come from so long as GDP grows.

Importing foreigners and quickly converting them to Singaporeans does not solve the problem of an ageing population because they too will age and we will have an even bigger ageing population to deal with in the coming decades. So the long term solution has to be to get fertility rate up and reach a stable steady state fertility of 2.1. So far the govt has been unsuccessful.... and ineffective. How come they can do it in Australia but not in Singapore?....I tell you one of the reasons...but lets start with a story............

On Friday I took a taxi instead of the bus home to save time but tbe idea backfired. I paid a whopping $52 for my taxi fare. Yes, $52! Why? There was an accident somewhere at Rochor Road and I spent something like 1.5 hours stuck in the jam on the ECP. Spend money and get home later...tired, frustrated and poorer. The only good thing about being in the taxi for half an hour was the taxi driver was quite talkative and had plenty to say about the govt - some of which is not so suitable for posting on my blog. Somewhere along the ECP the taxi said, "I felt the govt 'cheated' me when I had my third child". Cheated? That is a bit of a strong word to use. He told me that he had his 3rd child when he heard that govt was giving out $20K to encourage people to have more children. When his 3rd child was born, he waited for the govt to send him a cheque. He waited and waited but there was no cheque in the mail so he called up the ministry to find out what is going on. They told him the $20K is given out in the form of tax rebates and he would have to claim as rebates when he filed his taxes. It had to be used within 5 years. When he couldn't use up the $20K in 5 years they extended it to 7 years. At the end of 7 years, he got about $2K in rebates and $18K of the rebates was 'returned' to the govt. The same thing happens to many other lower income couples - they get little when they have children. The govt also gives out something known as baby bonus in which the govt gives out matching funds up to $8K(?) dollar for dollar to parents who put money in a baby bonus account - poor parents usually do not get the full amount because they cannot afford to set aside the money.

See the problem with these incentives. They give more money to the richer parents who are usually not motivated by money since they already have plenty and deny financial incentives to poor parents who love children and would be motivated by financial help. When the PAP says it wants to encourage Singaporeans to have more children, they do not mean ALL Singaporeans....they just want rich Singaporeans to have more children, They don't like the idea of parents who are not rich having more children hence they give out money in the form of tax rebates. In the eighties, they were even more blatant. The incentives were targetted at graduate mothers to have more children - you may ask why graduate mothers and not fathers? It is mentioned in one of LKY's speeches that he believes intelligence comes from the mother's genes[Read Population and Eugenics: Singapore's population policies]. In Australia, Finland and Sweden their policies to increase fertility rate encourages all parents to have more children not just selected members of society. That is why they have succeeded and the PAP govt has not....but PAP's failure is not going to bring disaster to itself but to ordinary Singaporeans who are fast losing their identity and their future.

http://singaporemind.blogspot.com/2011/01/fertility-rate-falls-to-disastrous-lows.html

I find it a great read.

and yr great judgement is?

 

[saratogas]

Looks like falling fertility rate will now be used as the reason to import more foreigners.

It's time gahment import fertile "pigs" from overseas... Or people good at producing babies as Talent... To break the chain of such low rates.

 

[Muthukali]

Looks like falling fertility rate will now be used as the reason to import more foreigners.

It's time gahment import fertile "pigs" from overseas... Or people good at producing babies as Talent... To break the chain of such low rates.

Sooner or later we will be infested with new breed FT.

 

[commoner]

KNN everything so expensive nowadays.....

HDB, medical, education, transport and influx of FT ,,,,,,,,,,,,

still wonder why birth rates low? CCB,,,,, vote them out la

 

[patrickv]

i don't understand how importing FTs will means can solve spore aging issues.

i know importing FTs can increase the spore population. but these FTs will take care of the spore aged who is non-related to them?

if not, import these FT for fuck? we don't need these trashes in our land. fuck off.

 

[Devil Within]

The PAP are doing Singaporeans in.

 

[red amoeba]

the problem really regarding the 3rd child & 20K is, whilst the government wants to boost fertility rates - the more precise issue is - those who should produce are not producing - those rich and edcuated ...

whilst those that should not are producing...

 

[syed putra]

"See the problem with these incentives. They give more money to the richer parents who are usually not motivated by money"

a) Rich means superior genes. Poor means genetically defect, so no incentives.

b) despite the incentives for the rich to have babies, it seems, they have forgotten how to bonk properly.

c) Importing more PRC's and indians is a way of protecting singkieland from turning native. Part of defense strategy.

 

[Ash007]

I find the following quote interesting.

See the problem with these incentives. They give more money to the richer parents who are usually not motivated by money since they already have plenty and deny financial incentives to poor parents who love children and would be motivated by financial help. When the PAP says it wants to encourage Singaporeans to have more children, they do not mean ALL Singaporeans....they just want rich Singaporeans to have more children, They don't like the idea of parents who are not rich having more children hence they give out money in the form of tax rebates.

Obviously it is to encourage the rich and wealthy to have more kids. If you can't afford to have kids in the 1st place don't. If the government have a way to stop poor people having kids, they would.

 

[no_faith]

If you can't afford to have kids in the 1st place don't. If the government have a way to stop poor people having kids, they would.

u r rite. obviously atm govt has no way to stop them from having too mnay kids.
their family could have easily more than 5 members in the family.

 

[red amoeba]

I find the following quote interesting.



Obviously it is to encourage the rich and wealthy to have more kids. If you can't afford to have kids in the 1st place don't. If the government have a way to stop poor people having kids, they would.

==

wrong..it shld be rich+ highly educated ...

the gvt said it when it said they aimed to attract the right quality talent into Singapore.

but here lies the paradox, if rich + highly educated most likely to have one or no kids. cos they recognise the "costs" - its not as if they cannot afford.

 

[Ash007]

u r rite. obviously atm govt has no way to stop them from having too mnay kids.
their family could have easily more than 5 members in the family.

It is actually a good policy. They just can't say it out loud. Another opportunity missed by the opposition to point this out. In Australia this would have been pointed out from the start and cause embarrassment to the government.

 

[Ash007]

==

wrong..it shld be rich+ highly educated ...

the gvt said it when it said they aimed to attract the right quality talent into Singapore.

but here lies the paradox, if rich + highly educated most likely to have one or no kids. cos they recognise the "costs" - its not as if they cannot afford.

This reminded me of the movie idiocracy, where the same premise was used in it. Eventually only the dumb and low IQed produced enough to live on in the future.

 

[red amoeba]

It is actually a good policy. They just can't say it out loud. Another opportunity missed by the opposition to point this out. In Australia this would have been pointed out from the start and cause embarrassment to the government.

===

more than that...it will hit the racial lines...which is ultra-sensitive.

 

[longbow]

It cost a lot more than $20K to bring up a kid. You throw in the tutors, piano lessons and that is an easy $500 a month or $6K a year. That $20K, even if doled out in cash will last but 3 years.

If the mother wants to take 3 years off to spend time with the kid that is easily $100k (assuming mother makes $33K a year).

If they really want to boost fertility:

1) give preference to good school for 3rd child
2) Allow Mom to take a 2 year sabbathical with the gov kick in 50% of last pay but no more than $3K a month.
3) Guaranteed uni scholarship or 50% discount for uni fees
4) greater assistance with preschool and kindergarten.

My point is that $20K is too little

 

[red amoeba]

20K that come with strings attached is a joke and a half-hearted gesture.

no matter how much the amount, it shld not be the objective of one having kids - bcos , touch-wood, any ailments can easily cost 10x more than 20K.

the objective really, is to create a conducive environment - and bold actions is needed.

for starters:

a) impose maximum hour work week on workers (below certain income level). Similar to France's 35-hour work week but it can be higher like 40 hour.

b) allow mothers and fathers to take time off to look after kids - up to 2 years. It could be 70-30 or 60-40 --> meaning the parents still draw 60% of the current pay subsidised by government.

c) extend maternity leave to 6 months. Reason very simple. Doctors all recommend breastfeeding for min. 6 months to babies. 4 months currently is insufficient. And i also know, some companies make the mothers take maternity leave 1 month before delivery + 3 months after. Or 2 months only. Seriously to pump breast milk in office is tiring and troublesome...u got to lug the gear around, and ensure freshness of milk. Also bosses are not happy that staff goes away to pump milk every now and then.

d) more generous tax rebate for maid levy subsidies. To ensure ease of mind when parents go back to work. Its pointless to give subsidies for childcare centres when they simply just increase the price thereafter.

They actually sent working groups to France and Sweden to study their measures - needless to say, Sweden have liberal incentives and policies ditto for France. But the government is unwilling beause this government runs not a country but Singapore Inc.

So, paying 1.6billion summon is ok...pumping this amount to boost fertility rate is not.

 

[scroobal]

The tax incentives for bringing a child into this world has a 2 prong purpose. First to address the falling birth rate and secondly to build the gene pool. Thus it only serves those who are high income earners and thus have the ability to get the full rebate. The social engineering part was the old man's idea.

There was also another factor to why it covers the high and the low income. The Malays were having little issue with their birth rate while the Chinese were on the other hand. If the tax incentive did not find a convenient mechanism such as income, it would led to more Malays procreating and screwing up the racial balance which has been the holy grail of the our race politics.

This has been the archilles heel of policy wonks on increasing the birth rate of the Chinese while maintaining that of the Malays. The number of closed debates, discussions on this has been for yonks.

Though Lucky Tan has been one of the best to come out of SBF, the write-up is at times too simplistic. I am sure that the PAP would be heartened by his article that a taxi driver never got the full rebate as that was the intention and his article proves it.

 

[halsey02]

===

more than that...it will hit the racial lines...which is ultra-sensitive.

A certain type of people are reproducing like 'rabbits', that is the worrying trend.....

 

[aurvandil]

There was also another factor to why it covers the high and the low income. The Malays were having little issue with their birth rate while the Chinese were on the other hand. If the tax incentive did not find a convenient mechanism such as income, it would led to more Malays procreating and screwing up the racial balance which has been the holy grail of the our race politics.

The racial policy extends to the FT policy as well. We all know the 2 largest ethnic groups the PAP are brining in are the Chinese and the Indian. What is not so widely known as the level of Chinese immigration is merely at the level to maintain the current racial balance. The level of Indian immigration is however to enlarge the Indian population. The intent is so that the Malay community will make up a smaller proportion of Singapore's population in the future.