- Joined
- Jul 24, 2008
- Messages
- 33,627
- Points
- 0
Hong Kong’s Growth May Top 8% as Asia Gets Some ‘Swagger’ Back
Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A
By Sophie Leung
May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong’s economy may have expanded 8.3 percent in the first quarter, the fastest pace in four years, as exports and retail spending rebounded from the global financial crisis, a Bloomberg News survey shows.
The median forecast of 12 analysts compares with a 2.6 percent gain in the fourth quarter of 2009 from a year earlier.
China’s economic comeback is driving the city’s growth, via a record 5.5 million visitor arrivals from the nation in the first quarter, inflows of capital and demand for exports. Hong Kong’s government is monitoring the twin risks of a local property bubble and of Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis undermining the global recovery.
“Hong Kong certainly is benefiting from the strength of the Chinese rebound,” said David Cohen, a Singapore-based economist at Action Economics. “Everybody’s holding their breath on the European problem, it can’t be ignored as a risk to Hong Kong and the rest of Asia.”
The number to be released at 4:30 p.m. today will be flattered by the comparison with a 7.8 percent contraction in the same period in 2009, the biggest decline in a decade. Growth may slow in coming quarters, according to Hang Seng Bank Ltd.
Gross domestic product may have expanded 2 percent from the previous three months, seasonally adjusted, according to the median estimate in a survey of five economists. That would be less than 2.3 percent growth on that basis in the fourth quarter.
The government forecasts full-year growth of as much as 5 percent after a 2.7 percent contraction in 2009.
‘Out of Whack’
“Hong Kong and, indeed, Asia has regained some of its swagger following the global financial crisis,” Financial Secretary John Tsang said April 26. The city needs to guard against over-confidence as the global economy remains “basically out of whack,” he said.
The Chinese economy, the world’s third biggest, expanded 11.9 percent from a year earlier in the January-March period, the fastest pace in almost three years. Malaysia yesterday raised interest rates as the nation reported 10.1 percent growth for the first quarter. Asia has led the global recovery.
“China’s recovery story has lifted Hong Kong’s economy, not only through trade but also through retail market sentiment and business confidence,” said Kelvin Lau, a Hong Kong-based economist at Standard Chartered Plc. Hong Kong’s outlook is clouded by Europe’s crisis and the possibilities of China tightening policies and of U.S. growth slowing, according to Lau.
Surging Exports
In Hong Kong, merchandise exports jumped 26 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, retail sales gained 18.8 percent and the jobless rate slid to a 15-month low. Since the financial crisis began, officials have supported consumption and employment with tax cuts, subsidies, aid for the poor and infrastructure projects.
Billionaire Li Ka-shing, who controls Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd. and Hutchison Whampoa Ltd., said March 30 that the medium- to long-term outlook for the city’s economy is “good.”
Inflows of capital have added to the risk of real-estate bubbles. Home prices rose as much as 10 percent in the first four months of the year, according to Centaline Property Agency Ltd., after a 29 percent gain in 2009.
The government’s first land auction of the fiscal year on May 11 fetched almost a third less than surveyors’ estimates, suggesting that government efforts to cool the market may be working. Officials are boosting the supply of land and raised the transaction tax on luxury homes from April 1.
To contact the reporter on this story: Sophie Leung in Hong Kong at [email protected]
Last Updated: May 13, 2010 12:00 EDT
Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A
By Sophie Leung
May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong’s economy may have expanded 8.3 percent in the first quarter, the fastest pace in four years, as exports and retail spending rebounded from the global financial crisis, a Bloomberg News survey shows.
The median forecast of 12 analysts compares with a 2.6 percent gain in the fourth quarter of 2009 from a year earlier.
China’s economic comeback is driving the city’s growth, via a record 5.5 million visitor arrivals from the nation in the first quarter, inflows of capital and demand for exports. Hong Kong’s government is monitoring the twin risks of a local property bubble and of Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis undermining the global recovery.
“Hong Kong certainly is benefiting from the strength of the Chinese rebound,” said David Cohen, a Singapore-based economist at Action Economics. “Everybody’s holding their breath on the European problem, it can’t be ignored as a risk to Hong Kong and the rest of Asia.”
The number to be released at 4:30 p.m. today will be flattered by the comparison with a 7.8 percent contraction in the same period in 2009, the biggest decline in a decade. Growth may slow in coming quarters, according to Hang Seng Bank Ltd.
Gross domestic product may have expanded 2 percent from the previous three months, seasonally adjusted, according to the median estimate in a survey of five economists. That would be less than 2.3 percent growth on that basis in the fourth quarter.
The government forecasts full-year growth of as much as 5 percent after a 2.7 percent contraction in 2009.
‘Out of Whack’
“Hong Kong and, indeed, Asia has regained some of its swagger following the global financial crisis,” Financial Secretary John Tsang said April 26. The city needs to guard against over-confidence as the global economy remains “basically out of whack,” he said.
The Chinese economy, the world’s third biggest, expanded 11.9 percent from a year earlier in the January-March period, the fastest pace in almost three years. Malaysia yesterday raised interest rates as the nation reported 10.1 percent growth for the first quarter. Asia has led the global recovery.
“China’s recovery story has lifted Hong Kong’s economy, not only through trade but also through retail market sentiment and business confidence,” said Kelvin Lau, a Hong Kong-based economist at Standard Chartered Plc. Hong Kong’s outlook is clouded by Europe’s crisis and the possibilities of China tightening policies and of U.S. growth slowing, according to Lau.
Surging Exports
In Hong Kong, merchandise exports jumped 26 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, retail sales gained 18.8 percent and the jobless rate slid to a 15-month low. Since the financial crisis began, officials have supported consumption and employment with tax cuts, subsidies, aid for the poor and infrastructure projects.
Billionaire Li Ka-shing, who controls Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd. and Hutchison Whampoa Ltd., said March 30 that the medium- to long-term outlook for the city’s economy is “good.”
Inflows of capital have added to the risk of real-estate bubbles. Home prices rose as much as 10 percent in the first four months of the year, according to Centaline Property Agency Ltd., after a 29 percent gain in 2009.
The government’s first land auction of the fiscal year on May 11 fetched almost a third less than surveyors’ estimates, suggesting that government efforts to cool the market may be working. Officials are boosting the supply of land and raised the transaction tax on luxury homes from April 1.
To contact the reporter on this story: Sophie Leung in Hong Kong at [email protected]
Last Updated: May 13, 2010 12:00 EDT
