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https://hk.news.yahoo.com/美國之音-中美對抗大勢已定-非貿易協議可解決-230920576.html
美國之音：中美對抗大勢已定 非貿易協議可解決
眾新聞
262 人追蹤
2019年5月11日 上午7:09
請支持《眾新聞》，成為訂戶
中美最新一輪貿易談判周五結束，雙方並無達成協議。《美國之音》周六發表長篇分析文章〈美中『對手』關係已非一紙商業協議可以解決〉，引述分析指出，就算兩國達成協議也作用不大，中美對抗的天勢經已形成，「美中之間的競爭關係，已非一紙商業協議可以解決。兩國之間的關係，將會越來越趨向不穩定」。
《美國之音》這篇署名「斯洋」的長文指出，舒曼（Michael Shuman）是駐北京的記者，著有《孔子與他創造的世界》（Confucius: And the World He Created ）和《亞洲追求財富的史詩故事》（The Miracle: The Epic Story of Asia's Quest for Wealth）兩部書。舒曼5月7日在彭博通訊社發表評論文章〈美中協議一點也不重要了〉（A U.S.-China Trade Deal Doesn't Matter Anymore），指出即使中美達成協議，但是一些重要問題是不可能解決的，「協議不會改變北京對高科技行業的扭曲的補貼。即便達成協議，所謂的執行機制，最後也不過淪為兩國無休止的互相指責」。舒曼認為，兩國的對抗性關係，已經超越了商業協議的解決範疇。
甘思德（Scott Kennedy）是美國智庫戰略與國際問題研究中心（CSIS）中國研究項目資深顧問、中國商務與政治經濟研究課題主任。他5月7日在Twitter也表達了類似的觀點： 「不管這個星期會談是取得突破進展還是談判破裂，會談之外發生的事情太多了。即便是達成了商業上的協議，也不會阻礙特朗普政府同時進行的其他努力，擴大對高科技投資和出口的限制，並在亞洲和其他地方為美國的朋友們與中國激烈競爭等。」
《美國之音》指出，不論是否與貿易談判有關，在貿易談判進行的同時，華盛頓也改變了對中國的看法。美國現在把中國看作對美國全球主導地位的主要戰略威脅。美國國會眾議院外交關係委員會，5月8日就美國應該如何應對中國舉行聽證會。會上有議員把中國看成主要的挑戰，有的直接稱中國是威脅。美國的著名中國問題專家則說， 用「競爭者」來定義兩國關係已經不夠，應該增加「對手」和「敵手」的元素。
2020年美國大選，也逐漸融入了中國元素。美國一些媒體說，一場有關中國領導人習近平的初選已經開始。不論左派還是右派，都在爭先恐後表示自己對中國會更狠。除此之外，美國在外交和軍事上也改變了對中國的「接觸政策」。2018年以來，美國派遣軍艦頻繁通過台灣海峽。
與此同時，美國國務卿蓬佩奧也在多個場合警告美國盟友們與中國的接觸。他告訴美國最親密的盟友以色列，不要與中國走得太近，又指與北京進行技術合作存在風險。美國還告訴德國，如果不停止購買中國通訊設備生產商華為的產品，將限制情報共享。美國還警告意大利不要參與「一帶一路」倡議，稱這是「為中國掠奪性的投資方式增添了合法性」。最新的例子是，蓬佩奧對中國在北極的投資發出警告，說中國自稱為「近北極國家」是無稽之談。
分析人士說，這一系列事件，無不體現了兩國之間高度失調的關係。普林斯頓大學政治和國際事務學教授，曾擔任美國前副總統切尼辦公室國家安全事務顧問的範亞倫（ Aaron Friedberg）周三在眾議院外交關係委員會的聽證會說，中美關係這樣的發展，在可預見的將來，兩國之間的合作會越來越艱難。駐北京的記者舒曼說，貿易爭端對中美經濟關係的破壞已經顯現。過去三十年，在美國的商界和政治界，與中國經濟的進一步融合被認為是理所當然。但是，現在已經不是這樣的情況。
《美國之音》稱，因為兩國關係不穩定，美國的一些公司在重新考慮他們對中國製造的依賴。越來越多的報道說，美國企業在考慮將他們的工廠遷離中國，而中國的一些公司也在考慮要不要在美國投資。根據美國智庫美國企業研究所（AEI）的一份報告，2018年中國在美國的投資下跌了六成。舒曼說，雖然中美不能完全脫離對方，但是，如果兩國關係繼續這樣下去，經濟的進一步融合可能會受到影響。
前美國貿易代表、中國2001年加入世界貿易組織談判時美方談判代表白茜芙（Charlene Barshefsky）曾經在接受《美國之音》訪問時說，中美「分手」並非不可能。
白茜芙說：「我自己的看法是，沒有什麼事情是不可能的，只是取決於成本是什麼樣的。如果成本太大的話，這個事情是不那麼令人滿意。不那麼滿意，但並非不可能的。在兩國問題上，成本將是非常巨大，但這並不能導致『分手』成為不可能。」她說，兩國分手會是一個錯誤，非常危險，有可能造成不穩定，也會導致自我實現的一種預言，造成兩國間敵對狀態，這是非常危險的。
Voice of America: China and the United States have stabilized the trend and non-trade agreements can be resolved
[public news]
Public news
262 people tracked
May 11, 2019, 7:09 am
Please support "News" and become a subscriber
The latest round of trade negotiations between China and the United States ended on Friday and the two sides did not reach an agreement. "Voice of America" published a long analysis article on Saturday. "The US-China "opponent" relationship is no longer a paper-based commercial agreement." The analysis pointed out that even if the two countries reach an agreement, it will have little effect. The Sino-US confrontation has already passed. Formed, "The competitive relationship between the United States and China is no longer a commercial agreement. The relationship between the two countries will become increasingly unstable."
The "Voice of America" signature "Syang" pointed out that Michael Shuman is a Beijing-based journalist with Confucius: And the World He Created and Asia. The Miracle: The Epic Story of Asia's Quest for Wealth. Schumann published a commentary on the May 7th at the Bloomberg News Agency (A US-China Trade Deal Doesn't Matter Anymore), pointing out that even if China and the United States reach an agreement, some important issues are not It may be resolved, "The agreement will not change Beijing's distortion of subsidies to the high-tech industry. Even if an agreement is reached, the so-called implementation mechanism will eventually become an endless mutual accusation between the two countries." Schumann believes that the confrontational relationship between the two countries has gone beyond the solution of commercial agreements.
Scott Kennedy is a senior consultant for the China Research Project of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and director of the China Business and Political Economy Research Program. He also expressed a similar view on Twitter on May 7th: "Whether this week's talks are a breakthrough or a breakdown of the talks, there are too many things happening outside the talks. Even if a commercial agreement is reached, it will not hinder. Other efforts by the Trump administration have expanded restrictions on high-tech investment and exports, and have fierce competition with Chinese friends in Asia and elsewhere."
The Voice of America pointed out that whether or not it was related to trade negotiations, Washington also changed its view of China while trade negotiations were taking place. The United States now sees China as a major strategic threat to the global dominance of the United States. The US House of Representatives Foreign Relations Committee, on May 8, held a hearing on how the United States should respond to China. Some members of the meeting regarded China as a major challenge, and some directly called China a threat. The famous Chinese experts in the United States said that it is not enough to define the relationship between the two countries with "competitors". The elements of "opponents" and "enemy" should be added.
The 2020 US election has gradually integrated into the Chinese element. Some US media say that a primary election for Chinese leader Xi Jinping has begun. Regardless of whether they are left or right, they are rushing to say that they will be more embarrassed about China. In addition, the United States has also changed its "contact policy" toward China in diplomatic and military terms. Since 2018, the United States has dispatched warships frequently through the Taiwan Strait.
At the same time, US Secretary of State Pompeo also warned US allies to contact China on various occasions. He told Israel, the closest ally of the United States, not to go too close to China, and that there is a risk of technical cooperation with Beijing. The United States also told Germany that if it does not stop buying Huawei's products from Chinese communications equipment manufacturer, it will limit intelligence sharing. The United States also warned Italy not to participate in the "Belt and Road" initiative, saying it is "adding legitimacy to China's predatory investment approach." The latest example is that Pompeo warned against China’s investment in the Arctic, saying that China’s claim to be “near-Arctic countries” is nonsense.
Analysts say that this series of events all reflect the highly dysfunctional relationship between the two countries. Professor Aaron Friedberg, a professor of political and international affairs at Princeton University who served as a national security adviser to former US Vice President Cheney’s office, said in a hearing at the House Foreign Relations Committee on Wednesday that the development of Sino-US relations is For the foreseeable future, cooperation between the two countries will become increasingly difficult. Schumann, a Beijing-based journalist, said that the destruction of Sino-US economic relations by trade disputes has already appeared. In the past three decades, further integration with the Chinese economy in the business and political circles of the United States has been taken for granted. However, this is not the case now.
"Voice of America" said that because of the unstable relationship between the two countries, some companies in the United States are rethinking their dependence on Chinese manufacturing. More and more reports say that US companies are considering moving their factories out of China, and some Chinese companies are considering whether to invest in the United States. According to a report by the American Institute of Enterprise Research (AEI), China’s investment in the United States fell by 60% in 2018. Schumann said that although China and the United States cannot completely separate from each other, if the relationship between the two countries continues, the further integration of the economy may be affected.
When the former US trade representative and China joined the World Trade Organization negotiations in 2001, the US negotiator Charlene Barshefsky said in an interview with Voice of America that it is not impossible for China and the United States to "break up."
Bai Yufu said: "My own opinion is that nothing is impossible, but it depends on the cost. If the cost is too big, this thing is not so satisfactory. Not so satisfied, but not Impossible. On the two countries' issues, the cost will be very large, but this will not lead to the "breakup" becoming impossible." She said that the two countries will be a mistake, very dangerous, and may cause instability. It is very dangerous to cause a self-fulfilling prophecy that causes hostility between the two countries.
美國之音：中美對抗大勢已定 非貿易協議可解決
眾新聞
262 人追蹤
2019年5月11日 上午7:09
請支持《眾新聞》，成為訂戶
中美最新一輪貿易談判周五結束，雙方並無達成協議。《美國之音》周六發表長篇分析文章〈美中『對手』關係已非一紙商業協議可以解決〉，引述分析指出，就算兩國達成協議也作用不大，中美對抗的天勢經已形成，「美中之間的競爭關係，已非一紙商業協議可以解決。兩國之間的關係，將會越來越趨向不穩定」。
《美國之音》這篇署名「斯洋」的長文指出，舒曼（Michael Shuman）是駐北京的記者，著有《孔子與他創造的世界》（Confucius: And the World He Created ）和《亞洲追求財富的史詩故事》（The Miracle: The Epic Story of Asia's Quest for Wealth）兩部書。舒曼5月7日在彭博通訊社發表評論文章〈美中協議一點也不重要了〉（A U.S.-China Trade Deal Doesn't Matter Anymore），指出即使中美達成協議，但是一些重要問題是不可能解決的，「協議不會改變北京對高科技行業的扭曲的補貼。即便達成協議，所謂的執行機制，最後也不過淪為兩國無休止的互相指責」。舒曼認為，兩國的對抗性關係，已經超越了商業協議的解決範疇。
甘思德（Scott Kennedy）是美國智庫戰略與國際問題研究中心（CSIS）中國研究項目資深顧問、中國商務與政治經濟研究課題主任。他5月7日在Twitter也表達了類似的觀點： 「不管這個星期會談是取得突破進展還是談判破裂，會談之外發生的事情太多了。即便是達成了商業上的協議，也不會阻礙特朗普政府同時進行的其他努力，擴大對高科技投資和出口的限制，並在亞洲和其他地方為美國的朋友們與中國激烈競爭等。」
《美國之音》指出，不論是否與貿易談判有關，在貿易談判進行的同時，華盛頓也改變了對中國的看法。美國現在把中國看作對美國全球主導地位的主要戰略威脅。美國國會眾議院外交關係委員會，5月8日就美國應該如何應對中國舉行聽證會。會上有議員把中國看成主要的挑戰，有的直接稱中國是威脅。美國的著名中國問題專家則說， 用「競爭者」來定義兩國關係已經不夠，應該增加「對手」和「敵手」的元素。
2020年美國大選，也逐漸融入了中國元素。美國一些媒體說，一場有關中國領導人習近平的初選已經開始。不論左派還是右派，都在爭先恐後表示自己對中國會更狠。除此之外，美國在外交和軍事上也改變了對中國的「接觸政策」。2018年以來，美國派遣軍艦頻繁通過台灣海峽。
與此同時，美國國務卿蓬佩奧也在多個場合警告美國盟友們與中國的接觸。他告訴美國最親密的盟友以色列，不要與中國走得太近，又指與北京進行技術合作存在風險。美國還告訴德國，如果不停止購買中國通訊設備生產商華為的產品，將限制情報共享。美國還警告意大利不要參與「一帶一路」倡議，稱這是「為中國掠奪性的投資方式增添了合法性」。最新的例子是，蓬佩奧對中國在北極的投資發出警告，說中國自稱為「近北極國家」是無稽之談。
分析人士說，這一系列事件，無不體現了兩國之間高度失調的關係。普林斯頓大學政治和國際事務學教授，曾擔任美國前副總統切尼辦公室國家安全事務顧問的範亞倫（ Aaron Friedberg）周三在眾議院外交關係委員會的聽證會說，中美關係這樣的發展，在可預見的將來，兩國之間的合作會越來越艱難。駐北京的記者舒曼說，貿易爭端對中美經濟關係的破壞已經顯現。過去三十年，在美國的商界和政治界，與中國經濟的進一步融合被認為是理所當然。但是，現在已經不是這樣的情況。
《美國之音》稱，因為兩國關係不穩定，美國的一些公司在重新考慮他們對中國製造的依賴。越來越多的報道說，美國企業在考慮將他們的工廠遷離中國，而中國的一些公司也在考慮要不要在美國投資。根據美國智庫美國企業研究所（AEI）的一份報告，2018年中國在美國的投資下跌了六成。舒曼說，雖然中美不能完全脫離對方，但是，如果兩國關係繼續這樣下去，經濟的進一步融合可能會受到影響。
前美國貿易代表、中國2001年加入世界貿易組織談判時美方談判代表白茜芙（Charlene Barshefsky）曾經在接受《美國之音》訪問時說，中美「分手」並非不可能。
白茜芙說：「我自己的看法是，沒有什麼事情是不可能的，只是取決於成本是什麼樣的。如果成本太大的話，這個事情是不那麼令人滿意。不那麼滿意，但並非不可能的。在兩國問題上，成本將是非常巨大，但這並不能導致『分手』成為不可能。」她說，兩國分手會是一個錯誤，非常危險，有可能造成不穩定，也會導致自我實現的一種預言，造成兩國間敵對狀態，這是非常危險的。
Voice of America: China and the United States have stabilized the trend and non-trade agreements can be resolved
[public news]
Public news
262 people tracked
May 11, 2019, 7:09 am
Please support "News" and become a subscriber
The latest round of trade negotiations between China and the United States ended on Friday and the two sides did not reach an agreement. "Voice of America" published a long analysis article on Saturday. "The US-China "opponent" relationship is no longer a paper-based commercial agreement." The analysis pointed out that even if the two countries reach an agreement, it will have little effect. The Sino-US confrontation has already passed. Formed, "The competitive relationship between the United States and China is no longer a commercial agreement. The relationship between the two countries will become increasingly unstable."
The "Voice of America" signature "Syang" pointed out that Michael Shuman is a Beijing-based journalist with Confucius: And the World He Created and Asia. The Miracle: The Epic Story of Asia's Quest for Wealth. Schumann published a commentary on the May 7th at the Bloomberg News Agency (A US-China Trade Deal Doesn't Matter Anymore), pointing out that even if China and the United States reach an agreement, some important issues are not It may be resolved, "The agreement will not change Beijing's distortion of subsidies to the high-tech industry. Even if an agreement is reached, the so-called implementation mechanism will eventually become an endless mutual accusation between the two countries." Schumann believes that the confrontational relationship between the two countries has gone beyond the solution of commercial agreements.
Scott Kennedy is a senior consultant for the China Research Project of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and director of the China Business and Political Economy Research Program. He also expressed a similar view on Twitter on May 7th: "Whether this week's talks are a breakthrough or a breakdown of the talks, there are too many things happening outside the talks. Even if a commercial agreement is reached, it will not hinder. Other efforts by the Trump administration have expanded restrictions on high-tech investment and exports, and have fierce competition with Chinese friends in Asia and elsewhere."
The Voice of America pointed out that whether or not it was related to trade negotiations, Washington also changed its view of China while trade negotiations were taking place. The United States now sees China as a major strategic threat to the global dominance of the United States. The US House of Representatives Foreign Relations Committee, on May 8, held a hearing on how the United States should respond to China. Some members of the meeting regarded China as a major challenge, and some directly called China a threat. The famous Chinese experts in the United States said that it is not enough to define the relationship between the two countries with "competitors". The elements of "opponents" and "enemy" should be added.
The 2020 US election has gradually integrated into the Chinese element. Some US media say that a primary election for Chinese leader Xi Jinping has begun. Regardless of whether they are left or right, they are rushing to say that they will be more embarrassed about China. In addition, the United States has also changed its "contact policy" toward China in diplomatic and military terms. Since 2018, the United States has dispatched warships frequently through the Taiwan Strait.
At the same time, US Secretary of State Pompeo also warned US allies to contact China on various occasions. He told Israel, the closest ally of the United States, not to go too close to China, and that there is a risk of technical cooperation with Beijing. The United States also told Germany that if it does not stop buying Huawei's products from Chinese communications equipment manufacturer, it will limit intelligence sharing. The United States also warned Italy not to participate in the "Belt and Road" initiative, saying it is "adding legitimacy to China's predatory investment approach." The latest example is that Pompeo warned against China’s investment in the Arctic, saying that China’s claim to be “near-Arctic countries” is nonsense.
Analysts say that this series of events all reflect the highly dysfunctional relationship between the two countries. Professor Aaron Friedberg, a professor of political and international affairs at Princeton University who served as a national security adviser to former US Vice President Cheney’s office, said in a hearing at the House Foreign Relations Committee on Wednesday that the development of Sino-US relations is For the foreseeable future, cooperation between the two countries will become increasingly difficult. Schumann, a Beijing-based journalist, said that the destruction of Sino-US economic relations by trade disputes has already appeared. In the past three decades, further integration with the Chinese economy in the business and political circles of the United States has been taken for granted. However, this is not the case now.
"Voice of America" said that because of the unstable relationship between the two countries, some companies in the United States are rethinking their dependence on Chinese manufacturing. More and more reports say that US companies are considering moving their factories out of China, and some Chinese companies are considering whether to invest in the United States. According to a report by the American Institute of Enterprise Research (AEI), China’s investment in the United States fell by 60% in 2018. Schumann said that although China and the United States cannot completely separate from each other, if the relationship between the two countries continues, the further integration of the economy may be affected.
When the former US trade representative and China joined the World Trade Organization negotiations in 2001, the US negotiator Charlene Barshefsky said in an interview with Voice of America that it is not impossible for China and the United States to "break up."
Bai Yufu said: "My own opinion is that nothing is impossible, but it depends on the cost. If the cost is too big, this thing is not so satisfactory. Not so satisfied, but not Impossible. On the two countries' issues, the cost will be very large, but this will not lead to the "breakup" becoming impossible." She said that the two countries will be a mistake, very dangerous, and may cause instability. It is very dangerous to cause a self-fulfilling prophecy that causes hostility between the two countries.
