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The next Lehmen Minibond Saga
- Thread starter Hangover
- Start date
Extract from the results:
In light of the delay in divestment, the Group is unlikely to complete any divestment deal ahead of the first call date in Apr 2018 for redemption of its Preference Shares. Consequently, it is likely that redemption will be deferred until divestment of Tuaspring is concluded, with the coupon yield for the Preference Shares stepping up from 6% to 8% in the meantime, at an additional $8 mil per annum. (Comments: To be redeemed after Tuaspring sold)
The Group has also been recently approached by several potential investors interested in strategic collaboration, with intention to inject additional funds for the Group’s growth activities. One of the main attractions for these investors is the Group’s strong track record in the seawater desalination sector, which is an important competitive advantage for securing international water projects. These discussions are currently taking place. More details will be shared when developments reach a more conclusive stage. (Comments: Buy the shares?? hahah)
In light of the delay in divestment, the Group is unlikely to complete any divestment deal ahead of the first call date in Apr 2018 for redemption of its Preference Shares. Consequently, it is likely that redemption will be deferred until divestment of Tuaspring is concluded, with the coupon yield for the Preference Shares stepping up from 6% to 8% in the meantime, at an additional $8 mil per annum. (Comments: To be redeemed after Tuaspring sold)
The Group has also been recently approached by several potential investors interested in strategic collaboration, with intention to inject additional funds for the Group’s growth activities. One of the main attractions for these investors is the Group’s strong track record in the seawater desalination sector, which is an important competitive advantage for securing international water projects. These discussions are currently taking place. More details will be shared when developments reach a more conclusive stage. (Comments: Buy the shares?? hahah)
Hyflux shares are not worth buying as the company is making losses. But the company is well backed and won't be declaring bankruptcy.
If you bought their perps, you would be collecting a stable 6% or have your interest rate bumped up from 6% to 8%.
Hyflux's full board faced bankers, analysts and investors during Tuesday's briefing.
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/co...-be-called-until-tuaspring-is-divested-hyflux
Independent director Gay Chee Cheong told investors that he empathised with them: "I receive calls from head of consumer banking, private banking saying, 'A lot of my clients bought into your bonds'. We are working our best. Right now we are even going beyond the banks, using our own personal connections to get people whom we think will look at strategic value (for Tuaspring)."
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/co...-be-called-until-tuaspring-is-divested-hyflux
Tuaspring made a net loss of S$81.9 million, from a restated S$114.5 million in 2016, as Singapore's electricity market remains oversupplied.
Ms Lum said: "We have put out an industry representation letter recently (signed by all seven generation companies) to the regulator.
"If the whole industry is losing more than a billion dollars every year, it makes the whole industry very vulnerable. I feel that it's just not sustainable."
Tuaspring made a net loss of S$81.9 million, from a restated S$114.5 million in 2016, as Singapore's electricity market remains oversupplied.
Ms Lum said: "We have put out an industry representation letter recently (signed by all seven generation companies) to the regulator.
"If the whole industry is losing more than a billion dollars every year, it makes the whole industry very vulnerable. I feel that it's just not sustainable."
Whole industry losing a billion a year and yet electricity tariffs go up by an average of 6.3 % in the first quarter of this year .
As usual the pappy will blame it on other components (network costs, market support services,market administration & power system operation). They can be inefficient and charge any cost they want for these other components?
Like train fares keep going up when trains keep on breaking down?
Nobody is accountable and own self clear own self?
See what happens when you have scholar/generals who have not made a single profits run the economy?
As usual the pappy will blame it on other components (network costs, market support services,market administration & power system operation). They can be inefficient and charge any cost they want for these other components?
Like train fares keep going up when trains keep on breaking down?
Nobody is accountable and own self clear own self?
See what happens when you have scholar/generals who have not made a single profits run the economy?
Sweetpie's auntie just pm me and asked about the yields because her uncle wanna tamba their CPF OA money into it.
Hyflux 6% Preference Shares SGX Code: N2H
Assuming that Hyflux redeems in April 2020 (26months later)
Current Price: 78
Capital Gain and Total Yields by April 2020 redemption = 22+3+8+8 = 41
Annualized Yield = Appx 24%pa
Hyflux 6% Perpetual Bonds SGX Code: BTWZ
Assuming that Hyflux redeems on first-call date May 2020 (27months later)
Current Price: 59
Capital Gain and Total Yields by April 2020 redemption = 41+3+6+6 = 40
Annualized Yield = Appx 42%pa
Important Note: You can only use CPF-OA for N2H, not BTWZ
Hyflux 6% Preference Shares SGX Code: N2H
Assuming that Hyflux redeems in April 2020 (26months later)
Current Price: 78
Capital Gain and Total Yields by April 2020 redemption = 22+3+8+8 = 41
Annualized Yield = Appx 24%pa
Hyflux 6% Perpetual Bonds SGX Code: BTWZ
Assuming that Hyflux redeems on first-call date May 2020 (27months later)
Current Price: 59
Capital Gain and Total Yields by April 2020 redemption = 41+3+6+6 = 40
Annualized Yield = Appx 42%pa
Important Note: You can only use CPF-OA for N2H, not BTWZ
The cheapest way for the Japanese (Mitsubishi) or Chinese (CITIC) to lay their hand on 25% of our domestic water supply (Tuaspring) is the ownership of Hyflux. At the current market cap of $230 million, a 34% stake to match Olivia is worth only $78million. Hyflux runs infrastructure assets in Singapore, Middle East, China and N.Africa in excess of $3.5 billion.
There are two potential white knights who wanna take a substantial stake in Hyflux -
one is interested in TuasOne project, so they are waiting for Tuaspring to be offloaded to confirm the final book value of Hyflux.
Another is after 25% of our water supply, so Hyflux unintentionally delayed the offloading of Tuaspring because the second knight wants Hyflux to retain ownership of Tuaspring.
In my neutral opinion, Hyflux's upcoming failure to redeem the April 2018 Preference Shares is a technical default in the eyes of creditor banks. Hybrid debts such as perference shares and perpetual bonds are structured as equities in books but they always emphasis a strong hint to debt-holders of their intent to redeem on first-call date.
It is not that Hyflux has no value, in the eyes of suitors, it is woman with a sexy figure (holding over $3.5billion in infrastructure and municipal assets). However, the name Hyflux losses the credibility because of the failure to redeem, she is no longer a decent woman. There is no way for Hyflux to stay single (independent) moving forward.
Put it this way, it's like Hyflux has no access to unsecured debts in the foreseeable future because she is a slut now. I feel almost certain that Hyflux is preparing to marry herself off. She needs to marry a man now and adopts the surname of her new hubby that will back her up. Eg. Olam's cost of financing is much lower now after Temasek bought them.
Sorry if i sound too crude when simplifying the implications.
It is not that Hyflux has no value, in the eyes of suitors, it is woman with a sexy figure (holding over $3.5billion in infrastructure and municipal assets). However, the name Hyflux losses the credibility because of the failure to redeem, she is no longer a decent woman. There is no way for Hyflux to stay single (independent) moving forward.
Put it this way, it's like Hyflux has no access to unsecured debts in the foreseeable future because she is a slut now. I feel almost certain that Hyflux is preparing to marry herself off. She needs to marry a man now and adopts the surname of her new hubby that will back her up. Eg. Olam's cost of financing is much lower now after Temasek bought them.
Sorry if i sound too crude when simplifying the implications.
This analyst is too biased, I almost fell off my chair.
https://www.bondsupermart.com/main/article/Hyflux-Ltd-Credit-Update-506
The Recovery Analysis in the above link, assumed an immediate insolvency of Hyflux which is untrue. The analyst failed to include a regular income stream from existing municipal projects down the road if the liquidation happens 2 years later. TuasOne (a JV with Mitsubishi) is also expected to begin operations 12-18 months later. Hyflux's cashflow will only improve from here.
Both Hyflux Preference Shares and Hyflux Perpetuals are readily-quoted in the retail market, and the author recommends Hyflux bonds in secondary market. Bondsupermart generates most of their bond revenues in the secondary market, which hinted that they did not benefit from the surge in trading volume for Hyflux Preference Shares and Perpetuals lately.
It is in my opinion that this is a very imaginative and biased analysis.
https://www.bondsupermart.com/main/article/Hyflux-Ltd-Credit-Update-506
The Recovery Analysis in the above link, assumed an immediate insolvency of Hyflux which is untrue. The analyst failed to include a regular income stream from existing municipal projects down the road if the liquidation happens 2 years later. TuasOne (a JV with Mitsubishi) is also expected to begin operations 12-18 months later. Hyflux's cashflow will only improve from here.
Both Hyflux Preference Shares and Hyflux Perpetuals are readily-quoted in the retail market, and the author recommends Hyflux bonds in secondary market. Bondsupermart generates most of their bond revenues in the secondary market, which hinted that they did not benefit from the surge in trading volume for Hyflux Preference Shares and Perpetuals lately.
It is in my opinion that this is a very imaginative and biased analysis.
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The preference shares were sold down by 5% immediate after the Bondsupermart report was published during trading hours.
(With scary section headings, but the report used their imagination to project a 65-100% recovery of par value. Cleverly, their worst-case scenario ignored regular income-streams and improving cashflow, by citing an immediate insolvency. The bond expert is an expert in every industry i suppose.)
The knee-jerk behavior is similar as another credit report by an financial institution.
(in the fine prints, the report from the financial institution cited that Hyflux will only redeem after offloading Tuaspring).
I gathered that both reports create opportunities for vulture funds to collect the preference shares.
In my earlier take, I do describe Hyflux as a slut but I do not spread fears like that by plucking numbers from the air.
Hyflux is a chio slut, highly sought by suitors, just too bad she cannot remain single.
So people, in this world, you will be trapped if we don't read the fine prints.
(With scary section headings, but the report used their imagination to project a 65-100% recovery of par value. Cleverly, their worst-case scenario ignored regular income-streams and improving cashflow, by citing an immediate insolvency. The bond expert is an expert in every industry i suppose.)
The knee-jerk behavior is similar as another credit report by an financial institution.
(in the fine prints, the report from the financial institution cited that Hyflux will only redeem after offloading Tuaspring).
I gathered that both reports create opportunities for vulture funds to collect the preference shares.
In my earlier take, I do describe Hyflux as a slut but I do not spread fears like that by plucking numbers from the air.
Hyflux is a chio slut, highly sought by suitors, just too bad she cannot remain single.
So people, in this world, you will be trapped if we don't read the fine prints.
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Noble posed Largest-ever loss recorded on SGX
http://splash247.com/noble-posts-largest-annual-loss-recorded-singapore-exchange
Noble Group Ltd. said a controversial debt restructuring was the only hope for survival after a US$4.94 billion loss triggered a warning from its auditor that the commodity trader may not be able to continue operating. Cash and equivalents fell to US$492 million at end-December, from $1.2 billion a year earlier.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-noble-group-s-future-as-assets-turn-negative
If I am the white knight, I will also wait for the debt-for-equity restructuring to complete before riding in with my steed.
http://splash247.com/noble-posts-largest-annual-loss-recorded-singapore-exchange
Noble Group Ltd. said a controversial debt restructuring was the only hope for survival after a US$4.94 billion loss triggered a warning from its auditor that the commodity trader may not be able to continue operating. Cash and equivalents fell to US$492 million at end-December, from $1.2 billion a year earlier.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-noble-group-s-future-as-assets-turn-negative
If I am the white knight, I will also wait for the debt-for-equity restructuring to complete before riding in with my steed.
The company is steeply negative NTA, yet the restructuring retains 30% of the restructured shares for shareholders and management.
Furthermore shareholders also buay song because 20% of the proposed restructured shares went to the management who continues to draw a handsome pay. Imagine management gets 2x more than all of the ordinary shareholders combined, what a lousy deal. WTF!!!
Turning debts into equity will turn the company into positive NTA, yet the restructured shares recognize only a few cents per dollar of debts for the perpetual bondholders. https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/co...rpetual-holders-unite-to-oppose-restructuring
So, we can conclude the hindrance is the management. The management is the one with problem. New investors don't really want these people to remain.
The sole beneficiary is the management in the proposed debt restructuring.
Furthermore shareholders also buay song because 20% of the proposed restructured shares went to the management who continues to draw a handsome pay. Imagine management gets 2x more than all of the ordinary shareholders combined, what a lousy deal. WTF!!!
Turning debts into equity will turn the company into positive NTA, yet the restructured shares recognize only a few cents per dollar of debts for the perpetual bondholders. https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/co...rpetual-holders-unite-to-oppose-restructuring
So, we can conclude the hindrance is the management. The management is the one with problem. New investors don't really want these people to remain.
The sole beneficiary is the management in the proposed debt restructuring.
In 18 days, a US$379million bond + interests is due for payment for Noble (about $500million + interests).
https://www.bondsupermart.com/main/bond-info/bond-factsheet/XS0906440333
In 8 days, the interest payment for a US$750million bond is due.
About US$32.8million or S$43million.
https://www.bondsupermart.com/main/bond-info/bond-factsheet/XS1577338772
Market will be scrutinizing tonight's Noble financial results to see if they have sufficient cash for both payment.
The default of the US$379 million 2018 bond will allow individual investors to file charges against them, triggering a mad rush to claim debt seniority with creditor banks.
Noble Bondholders, please refer to: https://twitter.com/group_2018
https://www.bondsupermart.com/main/bond-info/bond-factsheet/XS0906440333
In 8 days, the interest payment for a US$750million bond is due.
About US$32.8million or S$43million.
https://www.bondsupermart.com/main/bond-info/bond-factsheet/XS1577338772
Market will be scrutinizing tonight's Noble financial results to see if they have sufficient cash for both payment.
The default of the US$379 million 2018 bond will allow individual investors to file charges against them, triggering a mad rush to claim debt seniority with creditor banks.
Noble Bondholders, please refer to: https://twitter.com/group_2018
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