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I wonder why the PAP will reveal the existence of alleged terrorists planning a rocket attack aimed at singapore when cracks in SMRT trains would not be revealed because they make cause undue panic. LOL. In future, if the PAP does not want to reveal the cracks in trains due to this undue panic, may I also suggest that they do not reveal any potential terrorist attacks because that would really cause panic.
But i digress. I want to present some facts and of course ex or present Arty personnel, including our good forum friend Gay Loong can feel free to chip in.
This alleged attack was to occur in Batam, an island at its closest point 15km from Singapore. The 2 tips of the island Batu Merah and Nongsa are at the very least 15km from singapore. Nongsa being the terminal of the ferry between Singapore Tanah Merah and Batam. Needless to say, this area will be populated by security and immigration personnel as an entry checkpoint. In addition Batu Merah is also quite a populated are with resorts there and you have to drive through downtown Batam to get there.
If you are terrorists trying to fire off rockets at singapore, you want an area that is relatively free from prying eyes (it will take a few minutes to set up and fire), as well as some open area with no trees or buildings that might impede the rocket's flight. In the Palestinian rocket attacks on Israel, home made rockets were fired quickly from football fields and other such open areas and then the terrorists dissappeared into a friendly are and watched the news to see how many Israelis they killed. this is not the case here, as anyone setting up a rocket to be fired, or even transporting the rocket to the place for it to be fired will be subject to inquisitive minds and it will be hard for them to make their escapes after that. So, if they look for an area deeper into Batam island for privacy, then All in, you might be looking at a range that is 20km or more from singapore, as the crow flies.
Of all the rockets in the world's inventory, very few are simple enough to be operated by quasi military personnel with minimal training. The palestinians used home made rockets with a range of 3-4 km, the Qassam class of rockets. Of course, many Israelis targets are within 3-4 km of Gaza or the West bank. So, the lack of range was not an issue for them. In this case, home made Indonesian rockets in this classification will not work at all due to lack of range. This is what a Qassam looks like:
Next up are simple multiple rocket propelled systems (MLRS), of which the Russians and Chinese dominate the market in. We can be assured no US or western countries would sell any potential terrorists their rockets. This leaves the Russian Grad missiles (a development of world war 2 Katyusha rockets). The 122mm Grad or BM-21 look like this:
What are the odds that terrorists will be driving this around Batam to launch at Singapore?. This rocket has a range of 20km, just at the very limit of its range to hit singapore. Now, they also make a single shot rocket laucher based on one tube from the BM-21 which is called the Grad-P. Its a man portable rocket system and here is what it looks like.
In theory, its supposed to have the same 20km range as the mother system, but being a MANPortable and mounted on a tripod, I doubt this. Again, not likely that something like that can hit SIngapore at all. Although this would be much easier to smuggle in and use. But here again, the range is big deciding factor, and I doubt if it has it. Other rocket launchers sold by Chinese and Russians include the modernized Nebelwefer called the Type 63 which comes in the 107mm calibre. This rocket system has to be towed around Batam if it were to be fired against singapore, but even then, it has a range of only 8km.
There are many rocket system with the range to easily hit singapore but these are pretty sophisticated operations with satellite and computer guidance systems such as the US HIMARS (used by Singapore), the Brazilian Avribas (Used by Malaysia) and more, which are beyond the capability of the Batam terrorists to operate and acquire.
HIMARS
So, my question is, other then a home made rocket, how then are terrorists suppose to smuggle such things in? And if they could deploy such a weapon, why not fire it into a hotel during a conference full of westerners or at the US Embassy in Jakarta. They are sure to kill someone versus firing an unguided rocket over about 20km of water and into an area that you don't know will have any structures or people in it. Quite likely, even the slightest miscalculation would send the rocket into the sea because there is no reserve solid fuel in the rocket. According to the news reports, After supposedly finding weapons stashed by the terrorists, there has been no pictures of rockets or rocket parts. So, in the end, i can only conclude that the ambition of these terrorists exceed their capability to acqure and use such rockets. In other words, where was this supposed threat?
Just my 2 cents.
But i digress. I want to present some facts and of course ex or present Arty personnel, including our good forum friend Gay Loong can feel free to chip in.
This alleged attack was to occur in Batam, an island at its closest point 15km from Singapore. The 2 tips of the island Batu Merah and Nongsa are at the very least 15km from singapore. Nongsa being the terminal of the ferry between Singapore Tanah Merah and Batam. Needless to say, this area will be populated by security and immigration personnel as an entry checkpoint. In addition Batu Merah is also quite a populated are with resorts there and you have to drive through downtown Batam to get there.
If you are terrorists trying to fire off rockets at singapore, you want an area that is relatively free from prying eyes (it will take a few minutes to set up and fire), as well as some open area with no trees or buildings that might impede the rocket's flight. In the Palestinian rocket attacks on Israel, home made rockets were fired quickly from football fields and other such open areas and then the terrorists dissappeared into a friendly are and watched the news to see how many Israelis they killed. this is not the case here, as anyone setting up a rocket to be fired, or even transporting the rocket to the place for it to be fired will be subject to inquisitive minds and it will be hard for them to make their escapes after that. So, if they look for an area deeper into Batam island for privacy, then All in, you might be looking at a range that is 20km or more from singapore, as the crow flies.
Of all the rockets in the world's inventory, very few are simple enough to be operated by quasi military personnel with minimal training. The palestinians used home made rockets with a range of 3-4 km, the Qassam class of rockets. Of course, many Israelis targets are within 3-4 km of Gaza or the West bank. So, the lack of range was not an issue for them. In this case, home made Indonesian rockets in this classification will not work at all due to lack of range. This is what a Qassam looks like:
Next up are simple multiple rocket propelled systems (MLRS), of which the Russians and Chinese dominate the market in. We can be assured no US or western countries would sell any potential terrorists their rockets. This leaves the Russian Grad missiles (a development of world war 2 Katyusha rockets). The 122mm Grad or BM-21 look like this:
What are the odds that terrorists will be driving this around Batam to launch at Singapore?. This rocket has a range of 20km, just at the very limit of its range to hit singapore. Now, they also make a single shot rocket laucher based on one tube from the BM-21 which is called the Grad-P. Its a man portable rocket system and here is what it looks like.
In theory, its supposed to have the same 20km range as the mother system, but being a MANPortable and mounted on a tripod, I doubt this. Again, not likely that something like that can hit SIngapore at all. Although this would be much easier to smuggle in and use. But here again, the range is big deciding factor, and I doubt if it has it. Other rocket launchers sold by Chinese and Russians include the modernized Nebelwefer called the Type 63 which comes in the 107mm calibre. This rocket system has to be towed around Batam if it were to be fired against singapore, but even then, it has a range of only 8km.
There are many rocket system with the range to easily hit singapore but these are pretty sophisticated operations with satellite and computer guidance systems such as the US HIMARS (used by Singapore), the Brazilian Avribas (Used by Malaysia) and more, which are beyond the capability of the Batam terrorists to operate and acquire.
HIMARS
So, my question is, other then a home made rocket, how then are terrorists suppose to smuggle such things in? And if they could deploy such a weapon, why not fire it into a hotel during a conference full of westerners or at the US Embassy in Jakarta. They are sure to kill someone versus firing an unguided rocket over about 20km of water and into an area that you don't know will have any structures or people in it. Quite likely, even the slightest miscalculation would send the rocket into the sea because there is no reserve solid fuel in the rocket. According to the news reports, After supposedly finding weapons stashed by the terrorists, there has been no pictures of rockets or rocket parts. So, in the end, i can only conclude that the ambition of these terrorists exceed their capability to acqure and use such rockets. In other words, where was this supposed threat?
Just my 2 cents.
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