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Singapore will decline like Venice

takcheksian

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In the 19th century, the British maintained a hands-off policy. They invested very little for our development. They let Chinese dialect groups and gangs fight one another. They didn’t bother to do LKY-style social engineering. Singapore still grew very fast. It was because we had a great location as a deepwater port of call between East and West.

During our few decades as a nation, we exploited our deepwater port advantage. We built industries that catered to the shipping trade routes inherited from colonial times. We offered value-adding or processing services to ships that brought raw materials or components, and sent these on to their destinations. We capitalized on the colonial legacy of English to draw in Western tourists, build an international business and legal infrastructure, and extend our shipping hub into an airport and MNC headquartering and conferencing hub.

We did not do anything visionary or ‘out of the box’. We merely developed our preexisting advantages to their logical conclusion. These advantages would have been present regardless of which party was in power.

I understand many Singaporeans are trained in our tunnel-vision education system. Many will not know economics. Let me stress that none of our early economic policies require World Class Talent or Graduate Mother IQ. Any O-level economics student (yes, Cambridge offers Econs O level) can analyze our ‘comparative advantage’ and give the same advice.

Singapore also became a place of refuge for people fleeing instability and racism in other Asian countries. That has brought in a lot of investment in both monetary and human capital. In other words, we profited from others’ misery.

As long as our neighbours remain poor, racially polarized and badly governed, we will continue to be more attractive.

But Malaysia and Indonesia are becoming democratic. They are still discriminatory, but this is decreasing. They are making progress in developing their legal and sociopolitical infrastructure. They still have a long way to catch up, but Singapore is steadily becoming less attractive.

We are not the only port near shipping routes. We have always had our regional rivals. Aceh, Penang-Georgetown, Melaka and Jakarta/ Batavia all come to mind. These places have declined because of war, political instability or central government neglect. But do not assume that Aceh will forever be mired in civil war, that Jakarta will perpetually be corrupt, or that Malaysia will forever direct all development to inland Kuala Lumpur. Betting your future on others’ folly is folly itself.

Vietnam, India, China and the Gulf Arabs are also improving rapidly. Yes, we are still ahead in medical services, in education, and pharmaceuticals. But the manufacturing and most value-added pillars of our economy cannot survive competition from these countries. And will they never develop their own education and medical sectors? This is the same kind of arrogant fantasy that presumes the child of a non-graduate mother cannot succeed!

China had the world’s highest GNP per capita during the Song and Ming dynasties. Bengal (Bangladesh plus West Bengal, the area around Kolkata) had a higher GNP per capita than Britain until the late 18th century. 13th century Abbasid Arabs manufactured more industrial products than all Europe until they were destroyed by Genghis Khan. (Arabs made glassware, handguns, precision machinery and even robot toys of the type immortalized in Sinbad the Sailor and Middle-Eastern Wizards’ Golem fantasies. They developed the world’s most advanced hospitals, banks and courier services).

As late as 1830, India and China produced roughly half of global output. Britain had overtaken them in per-capita GNP, but these two countries remained ahead of poorer Eastern European lands.

It is unwise to fantasize that the Middle East, India and China will be forever poor and backward and require Singaporean manufacturing genius to supply them with processed goods. To assume that others are stupid and you are smart is plain folly.

During the 1990s, Singapore placed enormous bets on wafer fabrication like Chartered Semiconductor and the petrochemicals industry on Jurong Island. Now the Arabs are developing their own petrochemicals industry. China is making its own semiconductors. Market rumors even suggest that Chinese firms may make a bid for Chartered.

You don’t need a first class honours from Cambridge to realize that it doesn’t make sense to spend huge sums reclaiming Jurong Island to build a petrochemicals industry when we produce no oil and consume so little. Any O-level economics student can tell you the same. Why would the UAE and Saudi Arabia export crude thousands of km to us and pay us for refined products exported back to them? Why would China buy refined products from us if they can refine the crude at source in Kazakhstan? Other producers built their own refineries, so now Jurong Island is being kept afloat primarily by oil from Indonesia and Bunei.

We cannot even expect Indonesia not to develop its own refining industry. During the Suharto years Indonesia exported crude for foreign exchange so it did not care to do its own refining. As Indonesia industrializes it will increasingly make sense to locate oil refining in Indonesia, right where both the production and the market are.

And what about the semiconductors? Again, any O level economics student should tell you to locate a wafer fabrication plant where land is more plentiful, where engineers are cheap, where water is easily available, where there are many related industries (electronics plants) and where there is a huge domestic market. China and Taiwan have all these. Do we?

LKY and PAP have spent the last few decades praising themselves as geniuses with exceptional foresight. Are they? Even worse, they keep assuming other people are equally lacking in foresight!

Singapore has placed enormous bets on some of the most expensive casinos ever built. And now Taiwan is building casinos on Kinmen and Penghu. Cheap land, cheap labour, cheap food, beautiful scenery, real Chinese-speaking, within swimming distance from China. Should we bet that Chinese gamblers will choose Singapore instead?

Singapore gave UBS our biggest residential property, Command House, just before the banking sector crashed. Now UBS is sacking entire private banking teams in Singapore.

From 2006 onwards, the U.S. media, veteran investors and mainstream economists were increasingly warning of a real estate bubble and impending crisis. During the same time Singapore liberalized its laws on property sales and loosened regulations on the financial sector. The property market is declining steeply now. Many developers have bought ultra-expensive en bloc estates that they must develop to pay back their loans. More property is scheduled to enter the market in 2010 and 2011 than ever in our history. At a time when we are shedding a record number of jobs and more foreigners are leaving.

You don’t need O levels to figure out what will happen to the property market. You don’t need A levels to figure that if Singapore banks are making loans to businesses, investors, REITs and individuals using property as collateral, the future doesn’t look rosy.

Should we praise LKY and PAP for their vision?

Let me conclude with a warning:

Venice was a rich, thriving port for many years despite its autocratic government. Then it declined and fell into genteel obscurity. Today Venice is a sinking city, swamped by rising sea levels, visited by tourists only.

In the 1980s the government once compared us with Venice. Is a Venetian future awaiting us?

As the government has said so many times, we are dependent on others. We rely on foreign orders. Our economy needs foreigners. We ride on their coattails.

In the past, we were able to progress by offering what others did not have. Low Crime. Stability. Rule of Law. Efficiency. Lack of Corruption. But none of these things are unique to Singapore. All of our advantages can be replicated in other countries. And bit by bit, they are.

Big countries always take a long time to develop. LKY will not live to see Indonesia or India or China rise to first world status, and develop their own economies to the point when they have no need of Singapore. He will not live to see Aceh reclaim its 13th-17th century place as the greatest Southeast Asian port.

Unlike us.

We almost certainly will see Java regain its 11-13th century position as one corner of an economic triangle linking China/Northeast Asia with Southeast Asia and India/the Arabs.

What lies ahead of us if we lack truly visionary leaders who can lead us into the future? What will happen when our neighbours develop themselves? What will happen as the children of elites pass straight through Raffles, get scholarships and take power as the next generation of elites? Will they continue to pay themselves multi-million dollar salaries, suppress all criticism and award themselves ever-higher titles and posts? 5 Deputy Prime Ministers and 5 Senior Ministers, perhaps? Will they continue living in their own SPH-manufactured fantasy world, relying on foreigners to keep us going?

Decline rarely happens quickly. We are a stable country and remain so for the foreseeable future. We will not collapse in riots and civil war. But if things should continue moving in the same direction, we will slide into genteel poverty. Because it is too expensive to live here, non-elite people who don’t have high paying civil service jobs and health-pension benefits will leave. Over time, we will become a quiet, depopulated backwater like Venice where tourists outnumber locals at any time.

Is that what you want? :(:(:(
 
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zhihau

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What lies ahead of us if we lack truly visionary leaders who can lead us into the future? What will happen when our neighbours develop themselves? What will happen as the children of elites pass straight through Raffles, get scholarships and take power as the next generation of elites? Will they continue to pay themselves multi-million dollar salaries, suppress all criticism and award themselves ever-higher titles and posts? 5 Deputy Prime Ministers and 5 Senior Ministers, perhaps? Will they continue living in their own SPH-manufactured fantasy world, relying on foreigners to keep us going?

no more MM positions? :confused::confused::confused:
 

takcheksian

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no more MM positions? :confused::confused::confused:
[COLOR="_______"]
Not unless they promote the current MM to a higher position. You know that he must always be at the top.

Maybe at some point they invent SMM (senior minister mentor). This will require truly world-class pay, maybe $1 billion in salary or whatever Bill Gates and Carlos Slim Helu are getting on average. (Warren Buffet conveniently excluded)[/COLOR]
 

Watchman

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[COLOR="_______"]
Not unless they promote the current MM to a higher position. You know that he must always be at the top.

Maybe at some point they invent SMM (senior minister mentor). This will require truly world-class pay, maybe $1 billion in salary or whatever Bill Gates and Carlos Slim Helu are getting on average. (Warren Buffet conveniently excluded)[/COLOR]

They come up with SSMMM Super Senior Mentor Minister Messier
 

Watchman

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The Matrix is more than just a movie. It is symbolic of the nature of the society we live in. Most people live their lives oblivious to the control we are subjected to and remain 'plugged in'. The Matrix: You can feel it when you go to work, or when you go to church or when you pay your taxes. It is the world that has been pulled over your eyes to blind you from the truth. We have a choice – we can take the blue pill and go back to our daily lives and remain oblivious. If however, you decide to take that leap, take the red pill, and open your eyes to the manipulation that is imposed on us, you will never be able to see the world the same way again. It’s your choice. What are you gonna do?
 

newyorker88

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< These places have declined because of war, political instability or central government neglect. >


How true, but you think singapore will not have political instability in future? All things are in constant change. that is law of universe.

<China had the world’s highest GNP per capita during the Song and Ming dynasties. Bengal (Bangladesh plus West Bengal, the area around Kolkata) had a higher GNP per capita than Britain until the late 18th century. 13th century Abbasid Arabs manufactured more industrial products than all Europe until they were destroyed by Genghis Khan.

As late as 1830, India and China produced roughly half of global output. Britain had overtaken them in per-capita GNP.>

All cultures rise and wane. so it is more important to pay attention to what you have now.
 

red amoeba

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some comments - yes, we thrive mostly because of the apparent / relative disarray of Indonesia and Malaysia. - of course, it is not unrealistic to expect that they will one day wake up their idea and put their foot down. Actually, its Indonesia that we should fear - their rich resources, large population (both as export and internal consumption). If they one day decide to wake up and get their act together - they are a force to be reckoned.

We are too small - and we need to find something of relevance. When we mention Europe, we don't often associate with Luxembourg or Litchenstein - such small countries - but they are one of the wealthiest countries in Europe. They are known for their banking - so, its Singapore that needs to find a niche for ourselves in this part of the world / region. What that is, is for the millonaire politicans to think.

The example of Venice is true - a busy port in the past centuries now a tourist attraction - but hey, do you know how bloody expensive is Venice? Yet people flock there to throw their tourist dollars - because Venice have something that Singapore will never have - her culture and heritage. As time passes, the advantage is on Venice (assuming she don't get totally submerged) - Singapore was labelled to be sterile and lack of attractions. It still boil down to one thing - finding your niche in the world.

Venice has found her niche - her history and colorful heritage but Singapore needs to find hers too.
 

newyorker88

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some comments - yes, we thrive mostly because of the apparent / relative disarray of Indonesia and Malaysia. - of course, it is not unrealistic to expect that they will one day wake up their idea and put their foot down. Actually, its Indonesia that we should fear - their rich resources, large population (both as export and internal consumption). If they one day decide to wake up and get their act together - they are a force to be reckoned.

.

Indonesia still got at least 20 years to go, and a new leader is in need to get the thing going. Look at China, after the Qing Dynasty, WW2, a civil war, failures of Great Leap and Communism, and only after Deng comes about, they still need 30 years to reach the level today.
 

red amoeba

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China is already a force to be reckoned with - just look at the number of countries wanting to get into the bed with China. Even Taiwan has to lower her pride to move to sign trade pacts with China.

Singapore has already long plugged into China (or being plugged by China) - just look at the number of PRCs floating around. Even our leader admitted - 2nd class PRC (who cannot enter US universities) is better than no PRCs.

But if Indon rise, I think its more complicated for us to "plug" without disturbing "ahem" the racial balance - I think I need not say more. So personally, I fear, if a strong leader takes over in Indon and get their act together, Singapore will feel immense pressure.
 

newyorker88

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I fear, if a strong leader takes over in Indon and get their act together, Singapore will feel immense pressure.

No one foresee Suharto will fall one day. LKY and Suharto are good friends. When Habiebi goes up. LKY says the most stupid thing he possible can. Implying that he will not stay for long. That is why Habiebi is so mad, calling singapore a red dot.

It will take many years, believe me. The nation is still waiting, for a political to take out others and become a majority. Then we will see progress. For this coming election here, it is not a clear cut one yet.
 

The_Latest_H

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I always felt that Singapore has to engage its immediate neighbours, but Indonesia especially. Its probably the only one in South East Asia which isn't in recession, and that's why we have to look at them seriously- not just for now, but for a very long time.

That's why whenever a PM is elected, or re-elected, the first visit he should go for is Indonesia, then Malaysia. The US can come later, because it'd most likely a working visit, not a state one. Its not unusual to see our PM, after all, coming from such a tiny country, being ignored by most of the American press when he goes to the US.

Its only when its a state visit, does the US media ever bother to cover it.
 

newyorker88

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That's why whenever a PM is elected, or re-elected, the first visit he should go for is Indonesia, then Malaysia. The US can come later, because it'd most likely a working visit, not a state one. Its not unusual to see our PM, after all, coming from such a tiny country, being ignored by most of the American press when he goes to the US.

.

A good neigbour nearby is better than 100 friends far away.
 

newyorker88

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The possibe key for S'pore's future is an ASEAN Union similar to the present EU structure, perhaps in the next 20-30 years.

ASEAN idea is coined up by GOh Keng Swee? But why would indonesia and malaysia much bigger than singapore want to be on same par with singapore? They are big enough on their own liao.

By the way, these people in this region are much too diverse and greedy on their part to join up together. Only thing they have common is religion here.
 

johnny333

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Indonesia still got at least 20 years to go, and a new leader is in need to get the thing going. .......


What is this "20 years to go" ?

Why do they want to catch up with Spore? When our citizens are worried about losing their jobs to foreigners in their own backyard, or for the world class infrastructure that many are having trouble to pay for.

Why would they want our system of multi million $$$ politicians when they've gotten rid of their own Suharto :rolleyes:

I know of many Sporeans who have quitted to Indonesia. They may hold Spore passports but are making a decent living in Indonesia. It's a country of oppurtunites unlike Spore where every business is at the mercy of the Lee regime.
 

Tiu Kwang Yew

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Music to the ears ! Well said!

that is why i always encourage friends and relatives to learn how to speak Malay becos mandarin though is relevant, is a fad.

malay language is more relevant ---food and water--the nearest sources to singapore when food eventually goes scarce. This is a fact.


A good neigbour nearby is better than 100 friends far away.
 
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