Will China hold together as a united country

[Jah_rastafar_I]

You posted the Wikipedia article knowing full well that it provides mainly a historical account. The USA of today is totally different from the USA of the 18th/19th century. Then it was much poorer - which is what China is on a per capita basis today. Also, the USA had a doctrine discouraging it from interfering with the affairs of the world. Today, it has the opposite doctrine. Not only is the USA the only superpower in the world, it actively interferes with world affairs in order to sustain its dominant position. No country in such a position breaks up easily - not when there is so much money to be made and so much power to be shared by being a single monolithic entity. We are talking here not of ordinary political power, but the power of a global economic and military superpower.

My Harbans Singh analogy is spot on because the late HS belonged to a by-gone era, and his brand of comical politics is no longer practiced by serious opposition politicians.

Let me also say here that the 21st century will be the century of the United States. All world affairs will revolve around the USA - not china or russia or any other country. And the US will control and shape the world in ways people cannot even begin to imagine today. Not many people realise that. But soon, people will.

Wrong! The link shows all secession from the formation of the US to the present day. Did you just read the first few sentences and see it was dated 18-- and just assumed that was all it talked about? Seriously it obviously appears so cos that link even mentions about present day situations. Another one that doesn't read. The fact that you won't even read a link shows that you're full of shit. Full stop.

You have no links to back up your claims and do you know how long a century is? 100 years do you know how many years we are into the 21st century? 14 years leaving 86 years before the 21st century ends. If you are so good and able to predict 86 years into the future hey why not you tell us the winner of the world cup? or the winner of the reminaing matches? Those don't even take place 1 year into the future, If you can predict 86 years into the future surely you can predict a few weeks ahead.

Did you know the US involvment in other country's affairs is causing it a great great deal of problems. The occupation of afghanistan is still ongoing and more service men are being killed for nothing. Why else do you think the US didn't attack russia when it invaded ukraine?

Btw stick to the issue. You say china will break up. zero links to articles, zero reasons as to why but instead just sheer will power, It seems like everything will work out just because you say so. Do you know that is also known as talking out of your ass?

What is even worse than that is your sense of self righteousness. You actually believe what you write with no hint of irony on top of zero articles to prove any of your statements. You aren't any different from those cult members whom think they are 100% correct even with all the evidence proving them wrong.

 

[Jah_rastafar_I]

russia face its 2nd defeat from where?its only enemy was United states back in the 50s to 70s but now its reasserting its dominance in europe by doing whatever the fuck it wants and US unable to stop them,with china's backing Russia knows USA have their hands tied.....Putin himself said times have changed,Russia now has means and resources and technology that previously werent at its disposal and USA is now playing a different ball game.

China and Russia was isolationist....but now they are the complete opposite,look how much china has expanded globally,China not only exports its citizens,they literally have a finger in every economic pie in every country in the world,in every continent,u can even find chinese in the depths of africa.....like algae spreading across oceans,China will infect the world like the t virus.

i dont think US is in any way or shape capable of playing or even negotiating with russia and china,russia and china has already showed US that they are not the big boys around and they can take whatever territory they want and invade any country they want.....make all the noise u want.....USA is no longer the big bully in the yard.

He says 21st century will be the US century. It's not even halfway into 21st century he can make such a claim. Zero reasons to show why, 0 links to prove why but all because he says so.Seems like he's using sheer will power and the funny thing is ppl like him actually believe themselves to be correct.

 

[congo9]

The Han Chinese mind and philosophy is still based on mandate from heaven. They have never understood or appreciated politics where citizens are treated as equals and have right to be involved, Their focus is therefore an instinct for self-survival for those below or near the poverty line and entrepreneurship for those who are better off.

In times of trouble there will be dissension and even rebellion but there is no intention to take territory or carve out a patch of land for political or political self determination.

It is one of the reason why the British and the Japanese despite their much smaller numbers could overwhelm the country. It does not mean the Chinese will readily cooperate or be easily subjugated. Both the British and Japanese found out conquest was one thing but subjugation was totally a different proposition and paid dearly.

Only the British found the Chinese secret much later and went into trade and found synergy in Chinese entrepreneurship. Hong Kong remains the shining example of that meeting of the minds.

So yes to holding together but internal rebellion as cry for help.

Conquest by pure force is out of fashion. It will be better if a country can exert political influence on others. That will be perfect.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

russia face its 2nd defeat from where?its only enemy was United states back in the 50s to 70s but now its reasserting its dominance in europe by doing whatever the fuck it wants and US unable to stop them,with china's backing Russia knows USA have their hands tied.....Putin himself said times have changed,Russia now has means and resources and technology that previously werent at its disposal and USA is now playing a different ball game.

China and Russia was isolationist....but now they are the complete opposite,look how much china has expanded globally,China not only exports its citizens,they literally have a finger in every economic pie in every country in the world,in every continent,u can even find chinese in the depths of africa.....like algae spreading across oceans,China will infect the world like the t virus.

i dont think US is in any way or shape capable of playing or even negotiating with russia and china,russia and china has already showed US that they are not the big boys around and they can take whatever territory they want and invade any country they want.....make all the noise u want.....USA is no longer the big bully in the yard.

Russia will want to aggressively expand its sphere of influence in order to ensure its survival. I don't think it can succeed. It has not industrialized successfully and it is perpetually hampered by its poor geography which makes transportation of goods and troops difficult. It will also not be able to forever count on a commodities boom to sustain its revenues.

The US appears weak because it has suffered two major financial crisis within 8 years of each other, and also over-extended itself in Iraq, squandering valuable resources and allowing Russia an opportunity to resurface. Moving forward, not so clear that US will remain weak. People have been talking about the decline of the US since the 1990s but that has not happened. Compared to the European countries and Japan, the US has far less population density, even when restricted to arable or accessible land. This means scope for expansion. The US also has the most dynamic population compared to European countries and Japan except perhaps for Germany. The only serious contender to US hegemony will be China, which I feel will be mired in its own internal problems rather than overtaking world affairs. China also cannot gain access to the world's oceans without US sanction.

 

[Spock]

三国鼎立。 Only in a world with three equally strong superpowers can there be balance and stability. They will provide checks to ensure one does not get too strong to hold absolute power.

 

[Jah_rastafar_I]

Russia will want to aggressively expand its sphere of influence in order to ensure its survival. I don't think it can succeed. It has not industrialized successfully and it is perpetually hampered by its poor geography which makes transportation of goods and troops difficult. It will also not be able to forever count on a commodities boom to sustain its revenues.

The US appears weak because it has suffered two major financial crisis within 8 years of each other, and also over-extended itself in Iraq, squandering valuable resources and allowing Russia an opportunity to resurface. Moving forward, not so clear that US will remain weak. People have been talking about the decline of the US since the 1990s but that has not happened. Compared to the European countries and Japan, the US has far less population density, even when restricted to arable or accessible land. This means scope for expansion. The US also has the most dynamic population compared to European countries and Japan except perhaps for Germany. The only serious contender to US hegemony will be China, which I feel will be mired in its own internal problems rather than overtaking world affairs. China also cannot gain access to the world's oceans without US sanction.

Wtf?


Those are the reasons why it's failing you put it like those are stumbling blocks. I can apply a similar logic too. China appears weaker than the US cos a significant percentage of their population is still poorer than the US their technology has yet to catch up and their economy has shrunk but it will all change soon.

 

[chonburifc]

Hehehe. Why talk about Russkies har? Here got people know many Russkie friends? More than me? Hehehehe.

 

[eatshitndie]

historically, there had been instances of states attempting secession from the u.s. on several occasions, with the largest being the southern states culminating in the civil war. in modern times, there have been talks and propositions to secede by some states, but these are just hot air, as majority of americans would not stomach another civil war. the most likely future scenario for secession and possible breakup of the union is when mexicans and central americans take control of the southwestern states by prolonged mass illegal immigration to a point when illegals displace americans by sheer numbers. we're beginning to see the effects of overwhelming displacement in california, where easily many small towns and farming communities in the middle of the state are dominated by hispanics, many of them poor migrant workers from across the border. they bear children by the dozens per family, and their children and children's children are u.s. citizens by birth, and they are a political force to be reckoned with. their allegiance is still pretty much with mexico.

 

[Sideswipe]

underestimate PRC China at your own peril. the so-called experts get it wrong on China again and again over the decades. some people think that the autonomous regions ( border provinces ) would break away from China. there is no chance in hell that will happen for the foreseeable future.

 

[chonburifc]

historically, there had been instances of states attempting secession from the u.s. on several occasions, with the largest being the southern states culminating in the civil war. in modern times, there have been talks and propositions to secede by some states, but these are just hot air, as majority of americans would not stomach another civil war. the most likely future scenario for secession and possible breakup of the union is when mexicans and central americans take control of the southwestern states by prolonged mass illegal immigration to a point when illegals displace americans by sheer numbers. we're beginning to see the effects of overwhelming displacement in california, where easily many small towns and farming communities in the middle of the state are dominated by hispanics, many of them poor migrant workers from across the border. they bear children by the dozens per family, and their children and children's children are u.s. citizens by birth, and they are a political force to be reckoned with. their allegiance is still pretty much with mexico.

Mehico zha bors very very extreme. Either they are very very chio or very very ugly. In between not chio and not ugly, very hard to find. Paiseh, I not in that part of the world yet. But so far, I have a few mehico customers and seen both extremes.

 

[eatshitndie]

Mehico zha bors very very extreme. Either they are very very chio or very very ugly. In between not chio and not ugly, very hard to find. Paiseh, I not in that part of the world yet. But so far, I have a few mehico customers and seen both extremes.

depending on heritage and or ancestry. if much of their genetic makeup are euro-spanish, they will look more like ang mo. if they're mostly of native american or aztec stock, they will be shorter, darker, stockier, have short but powerful legs, and look like mayan losers. some are cousins from central and south america. the most isolated tribes settled in the amazon basin, and they exhibit asian looks. all native american genetic history trace back to asia.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Wtf?


Those are the reasons why it's failing you put it like those are stumbling blocks. I can apply a similar logic too. China appears weaker than the US cos a significant percentage of their population is still poorer than the US their technology has yet to catch up and their economy has shrunk but it will all change soon.

The US can endure multiple policy blunders. China on the other hand has deep structural problems due to geography that cannot be solved. The US will have access to both sides of the Atlantic and will dominate the world's oceans. China on the other hand will not be able to extend its sphere of influence into SEA without US tacitly agreeing. In any case, I am not arguing that China is likely to fall apart soon. Far from it. All I'm arguing is that China's growth miracle is ending, and it will create problems that will divide the central govt's attention and create massive rifts within the country. Whether it will fall apart one day is anyone's guess. Meanwhile, the global game of geopolitical chess will continue to be dominated by US who will maneuver each piece to its advantage.

 

[sleaguepunter]

underestimate PRC China at your own peril. the so-called experts get it wrong on China again and again over the decades. some people think that the autonomous regions ( border provinces ) would break away from China. there is no chance in hell that will happen for the foreseeable future.

The CCP central govt is facing the same problems as the emperors in the past, provincial governors getting too powerful. But unlike dynasties of the past, current provincial bosses has no access to the guns, all guns are under the central military comission who chair by the current Chinese president. So the chance of any provinces breaking away for central rule is nil.

As for xinjiang revolts, it only involve a small minority, as long ministry of state security (MSS)
中华人民共和国国家安全部, don't mess up, no way will the revolts succeed. Most Chinese don't care who rule over the lands as long masses have enough food, shelter and a relative good standard of living. The June 4 protest didn't start because the people want western democracy, it started partly due to inflation of food prices. I remember watching news in the late 80s where everyday news confirm had news about Chinese food prices and it affect on ordinary people. The bloody protest was started due to price increase and mourning for disgraced hu yaobang who die around that time before the movement Kenna hijacked by students who want more freedoms.

Current CCP govt has done a good job stifling dissents, as long the central govt can keep the economy buoy, little chance of any public uprisings.

Current US foreign policy is playing into Chinese hand as it force the russian toward Beijing, give more bargain power to Beijing when dealing with the russkies. Beijing not really treating Washington as rival as Beijing potential enemies will always be her direct neighbor, the russkies who share thousands of miles of common borders. While Washington papers keep harping on the Beijing rise to power as danger to US interest, Beijing play along so as to get the russian to transfer military technologies to Beijing.

Tibet will remain under Beijing rule indefinitely. Dalai Lama already so old, once he dead, the whole issue will go away as Beijing can hand pick the next Dalai Lama and the Tibet govt in exile will be illegitimate by then.

 

[Jah_rastafar_I]

historically, there had been instances of states attempting secession from the u.s. on several occasions, with the largest being the southern states culminating in the civil war. in modern times, there have been talks and propositions to secede by some states, but these are just hot air, as majority of americans would not stomach another civil war. the most likely future scenario for secession and possible breakup of the union is when mexicans and central americans take control of the southwestern states by prolonged mass illegal immigration to a point when illegals displace americans by sheer numbers. we're beginning to see the effects of overwhelming displacement in california, where easily many small towns and farming communities in the middle of the state are dominated by hispanics, many of them poor migrant workers from across the border. they bear children by the dozens per family, and their children and children's children are u.s. citizens by birth, and they are a political force to be reckoned with. their allegiance is still pretty much with mexico.

The thing is it's just your opinion as you see it. You notice when ppl talk about china breaking up they use the same logic and it's just their opinion that china will break up and by sheer will power that seems to be good enough.

 

[Jah_rastafar_I]

The US can endure multiple policy blunders. China on the other hand has deep structural problems due to geography that cannot be solved. The US will have access to both sides of the Atlantic and will dominate the world's oceans. China on the other hand will not be able to extend its sphere of influence into SEA without US tacitly agreeing. In any case, I am not arguing that China is likely to fall apart soon. Far from it. All I'm arguing is that China's growth miracle is ending, and it will create problems that will divide the central govt's attention and create massive rifts within the country. Whether it will fall apart one day is anyone's guess. Meanwhile, the global game of geopolitical chess will continue to be dominated by US who will maneuver each piece to its advantage.

Oh after your past posts in this thread we can safely say it's all just your opinion with no evidence or nothing to back up your stance. Yes i suppose by your sheer will power the US will dominate both sides and the world's oceans and if you can do that by sheer will power i am sure you can make your favourite team win the world cup. So which team will win the world cup?

 

[Jah_rastafar_I]

depending on heritage and or ancestry. if much of their genetic makeup are euro-spanish, they will look more like ang mo. if they're mostly of native american or aztec stock, they will be shorter, darker, stockier, have short but powerful legs, and look like mayan losers. some are cousins from central and south america. the most isolated tribes settled in the amazon basin, and they exhibit asian looks. all native american genetic history trace back to asia.

Ya la should be common knowledge. Btw it's true native americans used to come from asia but they have different asian lineage from the present asians of today. They have a more ancient lineage.

 

[frenchbriefs]

why the fuck does Russia have to worry about its survival?U forgot russia was the country that single handedly defeated the germans in wwii......they lost more than 11 million russians trying to kill 5 million germans....russia killed more germans than all of the allied countries combined,UK,US and allies killed less than 700,000 germans.In fact if america hasnt interfered in wwii,most likely the germans would have been defeated after the turning point of 1944 and the whole of europe would have been under stalin's control.

Russia will want to aggressively expand its sphere of influence in order to ensure its survival. I don't think it can succeed. It has not industrialized successfully and it is perpetually hampered by its poor geography which makes transportation of goods and troops difficult. It will also not be able to forever count on a commodities boom to sustain its revenues.

The US appears weak because it has suffered two major financial crisis within 8 years of each other, and also over-extended itself in Iraq, squandering valuable resources and allowing Russia an opportunity to resurface. Moving forward, not so clear that US will remain weak. People have been talking about the decline of the US since the 1990s but that has not happened. Compared to the European countries and Japan, the US has far less population density, even when restricted to arable or accessible land. This means scope for expansion. The US also has the most dynamic population compared to European countries and Japan except perhaps for Germany. The only serious contender to US hegemony will be China, which I feel will be mired in its own internal problems rather than overtaking world affairs. China also cannot gain access to the world's oceans without US sanction.

 

[chuckyworld]

There is a little talked about but extremely important line in China -- the 15 inch isohyet. East of this line, rainfall exceed 15 inches per year, crops can grow in relatively fertile soil, and there is a chance to get out of the misery of poverty. West of this line, rainfall is less than 15 inches per year, and poverty is a permanent feature of the landscape.

You can see this line here: http://s983.photobucket.com/user/drstats/media/BRF/china/china-popdensity.jpg.html

Not surprisingly, most of the population of China is concentrated east and south of the 15 inch line, and forms the land of the ethnic Han Chinese.

The west of the line serve as buffer regions for China which are crucial geopolitically to protect the Chinese heartland from incursion.

However the question is whether China will be able to hold on to its buffer regions west of the 15 inch isohyet in the coming decades. We are already seeing the first signs of trouble arising from vast economic inequality. We are also seeing the end throes of the 30 year long Chinese economic miracle.

When China matures, can it hold itself together? We will see this work itself out over the next 30 years. I suspect a few surprises might be in store.

The country that want China to break up can be name easily, starting with self appoint global policeman US government, next in line lapdogs Japan and Australia, vietnam and whore of the world pinoy land.

They might have to wait for another few thousands year, PRC are not going to let the country be divided they will nuke the whole country before it can happen.....

 

[Sideswipe]

The CCP central govt is facing the same problems as the emperors in the past, provincial governors getting too powerful. But unlike dynasties of the past, current provincial bosses has no access to the guns, all guns are under the central military comission who chair by the current Chinese president. So the chance of any provinces breaking away for central rule is nil.

As for xinjiang revolts, it only involve a small minority, as long ministry of state security (MSS)
中华人民共和国国家安全部, don't mess up, no way will the revolts succeed. Most Chinese don't care who rule over the lands as long masses have enough food, shelter and a relative good standard of living. The June 4 protest didn't start because the people want western democracy, it started partly due to inflation of food prices. I remember watching news in the late 80s where everyday news confirm had news about Chinese food prices and it affect on ordinary people. The bloody protest was started due to price increase and mourning for disgraced hu yaobang who die around that time before the movement Kenna hijacked by students who want more freedoms.

Current CCP govt has done a good job stifling dissents, as long the central govt can keep the economy buoy, little chance of any public uprisings.

Current US foreign policy is playing into Chinese hand as it force the russian toward Beijing, give more bargain power to Beijing when dealing with the russkies. Beijing not really treating Washington as rival as Beijing potential enemies will always be her direct neighbor, the russkies who share thousands of miles of common borders. While Washington papers keep harping on the Beijing rise to power as danger to US interest, Beijing play along so as to get the russian to transfer military technologies to Beijing.

Tibet will remain under Beijing rule indefinitely. Dalai Lama already so old, once he dead, the whole issue will go away as Beijing can hand pick the next Dalai Lama and the Tibet govt in exile will be illegitimate by then.

the further the province's distance from the capital, the greater its desire for self-rule and and the central government non-inference in its affairs. that applies everywhere.

it is said the increasingly frequent terror attacks in Xinjiang are being supported by external forces.

Dalai Lama can't just pick a successor ? he only advocates greater autonomy for Tibet, not independence.

 

[Sideswipe]

why the fuck does Russia have to worry about its survival?U forgot russia was the country that single handedly defeated the germans in wwii......they lost more than 11 million russians trying to kill 5 million germans....russia killed more germans than all of the allied countries combined,UK,US and allies killed less than 700,000 germans.In fact if america hasnt interfered in wwii,most likely the germans would have been defeated after the turning point of 1944 and the whole of europe would have been under stalin's control.

the massive US lend-lease aid greatly helped the Soviet Union to survive the tough first year of the war before Stalingrad. hundreds of thousands of tons of military equipment were given to the Russians then.

few people would believe this fact. what weapons ( firearms ) did US give to Chinese troops fighting in China proper during ww2 before Japanese 1944 Ichigo offensive. according to the words of US ambassador to China 1944-1945, General Patrick Hurley. that so-called massive US military aid in the firearm aspect was a "huge quantity" of 60 mountain guns.

since the US direct military aid was widely perceived to be so important to China during ww2, that 60 mountain guns must really be some amazing destructive weapons to stop the huge Japanese offensive in China then.