Russia, Ukraine and Crimea

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Russia's annexation of Crimea is part of its grand strategy to extend the frontiers of its own power and military might.

When the cold war ended and the USSR broke up, the Russian core was left exposed and vulnerable. Had the United states moved in for the kill, today Russia would be no more. But the United States did not act as it became tied down in Iraq in the 1990s, and later in both the Jihadist war as well as in Iraq again in the 2000s. The failure of NATO and the United states to act decisively to remove the Russian threat once and for all has given Russia the chance to become a regional hegemon again.

While the US was distracted by the Jihadist war and became tied down in Afghanistan and Iraq, Russia took the opportunity to consolidate its power. It embarked on an economic strategy of exporting raw materials to boost its economy. That strategy paid remarkable dividends. The commodity boom of 2000-2010 gave Russia much needed wealth to revitalize its economy as well as its military. As such Russia is now a force to contend with again.

Russia hopes to regain its former glory. To do so, Russia must build first build deep borders to provide a wide buffer to protect its seats of power, Moscow and St Petersburg, from European and NATO military forces. That is the Grand Strategy of Russia. The co-option of Ukraine into its circle of military and economic influence, and its recent annexation of Crimea is part of this Grand Strategy. Russia must have deep borders in order to be secure.

As Russia strives once again to become a regional hegemon, its actions will run counter to America's Grand Strategy. In order to maintain control of all major sea lanes of the world, America must prevent any regional hegemon from forming. The stage is thus set for rematch between America and Russia.

Over the next decade, America and Russia will lock horns. A low intensity Cold War will develop, but not one as intense and monochromatic as the Cold War of the 1950s to 1980s. America will help China stabilize itself politically, economically and military because like in the previous Cold War, America will once again want to use China as a force with which to check Russia.

 

[sleaguepunter]

I think opposite. It more like Russia worry the NATO creep closer and closer to Moscow since the fall of the iron curtain. If Ukraine turn NATO, it Russia proper next and NATO got it without firing a shot. In 1945, Allies forces stop at the banks of Elbe. NATO advances nearly 2000 miles while Russia loses all her buffer zones. You expect Russia to not take any action?

 

[Sinkie]

Without Russia, America allied forces could not have defeated Germany in ww2.

 

[steffychun]

Without Russia, America allied forces could not have defeated Germany in ww2.

Without the Soviet Union. Most of the troops were from the other Republics especially the rapid-loving Mongols.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

I think opposite. It more like Russia worry the NATO creep closer and closer to Moscow since the fall of the iron curtain. If Ukraine turn NATO, it Russia proper next and NATO got it without firing a shot. In 1945, Allies forces stop at the banks of Elbe. NATO advances nearly 2000 miles while Russia loses all her buffer zones. You expect Russia to not take any action?

You are correct. This is a defensive position by Russia. NATO has always been a threat to Russia's sovereignty, and now that they have the wealth, they want to take steps. But beyond Russia's survival, I believe that Russia by nature itself is also ambitious and seeks its former glory. These two actually go hand in hand. That is how large nations think. They equate glory with raw survival.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Without Russia, America allied forces could not have defeated Germany in ww2.

There are no permanent friends or foes in politics, only permanent interests and permanent geopolitical realities. ++++++++++++++++++++++

 

[Sinkie]

But those in Cremia and East and South Ukraine are Russians who want to join and be part of Russia.

It's the same as Chinese all over the world, who want to be part of China or Taiwan.

Same as USA, any state can split from USA and be on its own. This is democracy.

Why is it so difficult for Kiev and western EU nations and USA to understand?

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

But those in Cremia and East and South Ukraine are Russians who want to join and be part of Russia.

It's the same as Chinese all over the world, who want to be part of China or Taiwan.

Same as USA, any state can split from USA and be on its own. This is democracy.

Why is it so difficult for Kiev and western EU nations and USA to understand?

Speak for yourself. I don't want to be part of China.

You have no idea what are the concepts of territorial integrity and national self-determination. Ask yourself why China is willing to fight tooth and nail to keep its borderlands secure despite being thousands of miles from the core.

Go ask any American if he or she can conceive of Texas splitting away from the Union.

 

[kukubird58]

Russia's annexation of Crimea is part of its grand strategy to extend the frontiers of its own power and military might.

When the cold war ended and the USSR broke up, the Russian core was left exposed and vulnerable. Had the United states moved in for the kill, today Russia would be no more. But the United States did not act as it became tied down in Iraq in the 1990s, and later in both the Jihadist war as well as in Iraq again in the 2000s. The failure of NATO and the United states to act decisively to remove the Russian threat once and for all has given Russia the chance to become a regional hegemon again..

hahaha....this is the most naïve analysis that I have cum across......
the idiot thought Russia with its nuclear arsenal is a push-over......truly retarded.

 

[scroobal]

Yes.

All countries if they can help it will need a buffer to protect it borders. The surrounding area of buffer is called its political sphere of influence (SOI). It becomes part of the country's core national interest. Cuban missile crisis is the result of that sphere breached for US. The Russians first offered economic bribes and when that did not work, they seized Crimea.

Its a core concept and practice in Geopolitics. The Japanese had theirs which resulted in WWII.

I think opposite. It more like Russia worry the NATO creep closer and closer to Moscow since the fall of the iron curtain. If Ukraine turn NATO, it Russia proper next and NATO got it without firing a shot. In 1945, Allies forces stop at the banks of Elbe. NATO advances nearly 2000 miles while Russia loses all her buffer zones. You expect Russia to not take any action?

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Okay, I'd grant that Russia's security and national defense are its primary objectives now, and the motives for these incursions.

But i still believe the old pride will reassert itself, as history has shown it often would. In any case, the overriding theme is that what is interpreted by others as an offensive action is in fact a defensive measure, and that is the issue journalists miss out when reporting.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Thanks to Sleague and Scroo for helping me crystallize.

 

[LightYears]

What gave her away? Russian social worker who posed with grenade launcher in floral dress is captured by Ukraine and accused of being a Moscow spy

• Maria Koleda 'involved in a plot to capture power plant' near Crimea
  
• Photos show her in a floral dress clutching a grenade launcher
  
• US claims Russia is paying agents to stir unrest in the east so it can invade

By Will Stewart In Moscow and Dan Bloom
Published: 16:35 GMT, 9 April 2014 | Updated: 21:04 GMT, 9 April 2014

An 23-year-old 'Russian spy' has been detained in Ukraine amid claims Vladimir Putin is seeking to destabilise the country.

Ukrainian authorities say Maria Koleda was on her ninth mission to the ex-Soviet state, wounding three people with firearms and training two armed subversive groups.

The detention comes on the fourth day of a stand-off in two cities, as Ukraine's government warned it was prepared to use force against pro-Russian activists who barricaded themselves inside government buildings and begged Vladimir Putin for back-up.

'Spy': Ukraine has accused 23-year-old Russian social worker Maria Koleda of working for Moscow. Photos have emerged of her holding a rocket-propelled grenade launcher in a floral dress and stroking a kitten

Accusations: Koleda has been nicknamed Bagheera after the cunning panther in The Jungle Book

Authorities say Koleda, who was detained in the Kherson region bordering Crimea, was involved in a plot to 'capture sensitive facilities' including a hydropower plant.
Photos of emerged of her in camouflage clothes stroking a kitten and in a floral dress clutching a rocket-propelled grenade launcher.

Russia annexed Crimea last month and the U.S. has accused the Kremlin of trying to do the same thing in eastern Ukraine by funding 'provocateurs' to stir unrest so it can invade.

Moscow has been accused before of using young female agents - notably the glamorous Anna Chapman, formerly married to a British man before being unmasked by the FBI in New York - in frontline intelligence operations.

Koleda uses the nickname Bagheera online - thought to be based on the cunning black panther in Rudyard Kipling's The Jungle Book.

She used firearms during unrest outside Mykolaiv Regional State Administration in southern Ukraine, in which she admitted 'that she wounded three people', said the SBU (Ukraine's secret service) in a lengthy statement naming Koleda.

Kiev claimed she had orders from Russian intelligence to check places where Russian troops could penetrate from Crimea onto Ukraine's mainland, 'bypassing the checkpoints'.

Russia has been accused before of using glamorous female agents, notably Anna Chapman, pictured

Ukraine's secret service claimed Koleda, pictured, used firearms and wounded three people

Detained: Ukrainian authorities claimed Maria Koleda was on her ninth fact-finding mission to the country

When she was detained she carried 'a traumatic pistol' with live ammunition and 'guidelines for training subversive groups'.

'She said this was her ninth trip to Ukraine,' said an SBU statement which claimed to have evidence of her reporting to her spymaster in Russia about pro-Moscow activists equipped with 'unlimited supplies of explosives'.

The 23-year-old graduated as a social worker from a Moscow university.

'What we see from Russia is an illegal, illegitimate effort to destroy a sovereign state and create a contrived crisis with paid operatives'

- U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry

Like Katia Zatuliveter, suspected by MI5 of working for Russian intelligence after securing a job with MP Mike Hancock, she had lived in St Petersburg.

Russia's FSB - part of the former Soviet-era KGB - did not comment on Koleda's detention.

Ukraine presidential candidate Yulia Tymoshenko warned Moscow is deploying tightly-knit agent provocateur groups to control protests which have no popular legitimacy.

'The techniques are absolutely the same,' said the ex-premier. 'Out of 250 people, there are groups of three-to-four FSB representatives, then foremen, who obey them.

'They do not rely on support from the people at all'

The development came as masked pro-Russians who stormed Ukrainian state buildings and declared a new 'People's Republic' called on Vladimir Putin for help.

The U.S. has accused the Russian administration of funding the 'illegal' unrest which is ongoing in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk.

'What we see from Russia is an illegal, illegitimate effort to destroy a sovereign state and create a contrived crisis with paid operatives', U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said yesterday.

And Ukraine's government warns it is prepared to use force against the activists, who reinforced barricades using sandbags, razor wire and car bumpers and declared a sovereign 'People's Republic'.

Reinforced: Pro-Russian activists in Donetsk (pictured) and Luhansk have build fresh barricades today as the Ukrainian government warns it is ready to use force to eject them from government-owned buildings

Homemade: The barricades in Donetsk have been strengthened - with a row of car bumpers covered in wire

Armed: U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has directly accused Russia of using 'provocateurs' in Ukraine

Anger: The activists stormed government buildings in Donetsk (pictured) and Luhansk on Sunday

Festive cheer: A woman dishes out food to pro-Russian protesters in front of the seized building in Donetsk

East v West: Unrest has flared in eastern Ukraine, whose residents have strong ethnic ties to Russia. Last month Russia annexed Crimea - and now separatists in Moldova say they want to join Russia too

'Of course we must ask Russia to take us in because I don't see an alternative,' said a man who claimed he was the 'commandant' of the seized ex-KGB building in Luhansk.
He shouted: 'Putin help us!'

Last night 56 'hostages' were allowed to leave the building amid claims they had been held against their will and the building had been rigged with explosives. There was later confusion as to whether there had been any hostages at all.

Today, some of the activists were in talks with the Ukrainian authorities on how to dispel the tension.

Serhiy Tyhipko, a figure with the previous Ukraine government, urged authorities not to storm the building in Luhansk but negotiate a peaceful solution instead.

Tyhipko said the protesters wanted to turn Ukraine into a federal state with broad regional autonomy, not join Russia.

'Putin help us!' This pro-Russian activist in Luhansk said his name was Vasily and he was the 'commandant'

Hostilities: In Luhansk it was claimed up to 60 hostages were taken and the building was rigged with explosives. Conflicting reports said the 'hostages' were released and that there had never been any at all

Prepare for battle: Molotov cocktails are lined up next to the barricades in Luhansk. Force could soon be used

'The people are not bringing up the issue of breaking off from Ukraine and are not calling for the help of foreign countries,' Tyhipko said.

Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said the standoffs must be resolved within the next two days.

'I want to repeat that there are two options: political settlement through negotiations and the use of force,' he said. 'We are ready for both options.'

Yesterday 70 activists were arrested in a third city, Kharkiv, after Ukrainian special forces stormed their barricades and cleared the building.

But the move led to a punch-up in the Ukrainian Parliament in Kiev after one politician accused the government of being too 'heavy-handed'.

The views by a communist leader infuriated two nationalists, who marched across the chamber and grabbed him mid-speech prompting several other politicians to trade blows.

Protest: In Kharkiv, 70 activists were arrested and demonstrators gathered near the court today (pictured)

Anger: Pro-Russians hold placards reading 'Freedom for detained heroes' near the court in Kharkiv

School run: Children look on as policemen with riot shields file through the streets in Kharkiv

Court appearance: One of the 70 detained in an 'anti-terrorist' operation is led into the court in Kharkiv