SINGAPORE — The Punggol East by-election marks a turning point for the Opposition political landscape: At the Workers’ Party (WP) rally last Tuesday, party chief Low Thia Khiang made it clear — for the first time publicly — that his party was prepared to go it alone, a stand that would have been emboldened by its victory yesterday.
Addressing charges of “arrogance” levelled at the WP for rejecting the overtures of other Opposition parties to negotiate a pact for the by-election, Mr Low said, among other things, that in today’s political situation, to have all Opposition parties coming together as one political force is an “unworkable concept”.
But while the WP is clearly basing its expansion plans on geography — first capturing Hougang, then Aljunied, and now Punggol East — the other Opposition parties are unwilling to play by the WP’s rules.
In the long run, analysts said, the Opposition scene will become more fractious — or more vibrant, depending on how one sees it — with various Opposition parties seeking to rise above the WP’s strategy by carving out a different brand of politics, as well as establishing more distinct positions on policies.
Analysts predict that the other Opposition parties will choose to go head-on with the WP, especially if these are wards they had previously stood in, thereby setting the stage for multi-cornered contests to become a more common feature in future polls.
Another reason for their belligerence could be retaliation against Mr Low’s thumbing of the nose at the concept of Opposition unity during the hustings, they said. At the same time, the other Opposition parties will be increasingly wary of the WP’s moves.
Dr Lam Peng Er, Senior Research Fellow at the East Asian Institute, cited the possibility that the WP might see the constituencies in the eastern region of Singapore as its “launch pad” to other areas.
“As a party on the ascendancy, will they be satisfied with just being in the east and not go west, or south?” asked Dr Lam.
Law academic Eugene K B Tan added: “The WP will obviously be very keen on seats where the PAP’s control is not very strong, but these will also be seats the other parties will want to contest because the likelihood of victory is seen to be higher.”
Assistant Professor Tan, who is also a Nominated Member of Parliament (NMP), reiterated that the other Opposition parties’ resistance to “any attempt by the WP to assert its ‘first right of refusal’ on the basis of geography” could possibly cause further rifts in the Opposition camp, especially as some of the contiguous wards to the WP’s Hougang and Aljunied (and Punggol East) seats were contested by other Opposition parties.
In the 2011 General Election, the National Solidarity Party (NSP) contested in Tampines and Marine Parade, while the Singapore Democratic Alliance went for Pasir Ris-Punggol.
Opposition watcher Dr Wong Wee Nam said: “The other Opposition parties might become aggressive and fight back when the time comes, such as going into Aljunied as well.”
Asst Prof Tan agreed and said that the other parties “will not take the WP’s swagger and assertiveness lying down”. He added: “They may seek to thwart the WP’s plans if it insists on being apart from the Opposition camp.”
Indeed, expansion based on geography is not even an option for the other Opposition parties since none of them have a base to push out from, unlike the WP, which has held Hougang for over two decades, and enlarged its base with Aljunied in 2011.
The NSP, for one, will continue working the ground in constituencies it contested in 2011, its Secretary-General Hazel Poa told TODAY.
“Geography is only one of the considerations. Another factor is the support, bond and understanding built up in the constituencies that we have previously contested in,” she said.
The ‘limited effect’ of a Geography-based strategy
With the WP firmly establishing itself as the dominant Opposition party, several challenges lie ahead for the others in the Opposition camp to stay viable, analysts said.
Foremost of these is for each party to build up its own “clear identity that appeals to the voters” because they do not have a stronghold, like the WP does, said former NMP Siew Kum Hong.
“Singapore is a pretty homogeneous small country, so in terms of geography, there’s a limited effect,” he said.
Both Asst Prof Tan and Mr Siew added that the other Opposition parties also have to “work the ground and impose their roots in a constituency” long before the next General Election.
“The real problem with the claim-staking that goes on in Singapore Opposition politics is the lack of actual groundwork by a party in between elections, coupled with an expectation of a claim to a constituency just because the party had contested there five years ago,” Mr Siew said.
“Obviously the WP does not care about the claim anymore. But if you are able to show that you’ve been working the ground and have a good chance of retaining support, that is what will keep the WP off your turf.”
For Ms Poa, good alternative policy proposals are what she believes will set parties apart.
“If multi-cornered fights become inevitable, we hope that televised public debates at the party leadership level and town hall meetings at the constituencies can be introduced to familiarise voters with the different positions represented by the various parties,” she said. “Such debates allow voters to clearly understand the policy positions of the different parties and promises of the candidates.”
The developments will be good for Singapore politics in general, said Mr Siew. “In the longer run, this should lead to parties having more distinct identities, policies and branding,” he added.
