Good analysis on Chee Soo Juan's thought process

[Confuseous]

by politicalwritings


Despite a pretext of opposition ‘collaboration‘, there is a real and valid reason why SDP must contest Punggol East, even though it will likely lose.

Because SDP needs to stop WP before it becomes impossible.

If SDP lets WP contest Punggol East unmolested, it will acknowledge that WP is the #1 Opposition party in Singapore.

There can only be two outcomes then: if WP wins in a straight contest, SDP is doomed. WP will have 7 seats in Parliament and still keep its two NCMP seats, while SDP not only gets nothing, but becomes further submerged in voters’ consciousness.

Even if WP doesn’t win, SDP gains nothing from giving way to WP.

On the other hand, by contesting SDP makes almost certain that WP will not win the election. In strategy we call this a blocking move. You sacrifice one of your own just to make sure that your opponent cannot make further gains. It is basically a strategy not only to deny WP another seat in Parliament, but to deny WP another chance to look good in front of voters at large.

If SDP polls higher than WP, they will brag that Singaporeans want their brand of ‘opposition’ rather than WP’s meek and mild opposition. Even if SDP polls lower than WP, they’ll still say it’s a credible showing, while secretly celebrating that WP does not get yet another seat in Parliament. They would also have raised their profile, especially now that Dr Chee is no longer a bankrupt and can speak at election rallies. It will be his golden chance to address Singaporeans at large after almost 15 years.

In the unlikely event that SDP lose their election deposit, they’ll claim that PM Lee denied them the opportunity to build a fan base in Punggol East before he pressed his ‘panic’ button.

So you see how important Punggol East is to SDP.

More - http://politicalwritings.wordpress.com/2013/01/11/the-importance-of-punggol-east/

 

[eatshitndie]

whoever wrote this is no simpleton. politically astute and a master strategist.

you see? there's hope for sg. there are still sharp scissors around.

 

[metalmickey]

whoever wrote this is no simpleton. politically astute and a master strategist.

you see? there's hope for sg. there are still sharp scissors around.

Yes but even if he were to go out and do a three corner fight it will still be better than "sharing a campaign with WP" nonsense. If he wants to "share a campaign" with WP he should just ask to join WP and see if they'll take him.

 

[tonychat]

This thought process does not include what the voters think at all.

All are self-centered thought process of making themselves better. Where is the consideration of the people?

That is why i stay away from sinkies.. they only care about themselves.

 

[eatshitndie]

Yes but even if he were to go out and do a three corner fight it will still be better than "sharing a campaign with WP" nonsense. If he wants to "share a campaign" with WP he should just ask to join WP and see if they'll take him.

hard to fault him for he's seeing the writing on the wall. it's a last ditch attempt for his reign to "survive". clutching at straws so to speak. a drowning victim will do anything to stay afloat including going all in and do the unthinkable, such as pulling neighbor down with you. if sdp doesn't become relevant in this episode, it's over. wp will become the undisputed de facto oppo brand and with the pappy honchos fawning over them, it's still a pappy winter wonderland for as far as you can see in 3 lifetimes.

 

[metalmickey]

hard to fault him for he's seeing the writing on the wall. it's a last ditch attempt for his reign to "survive". clutching at straws so to speak. a drowning victim will do anything to stay afloat including going all in and do the unthinkable, such as pulling neighbor down with you. if sdp doesn't become relevant in this episode, it's over. wp will become the undisputed de facto oppo brand and with the pappy honchos fawning over them, it's still a pappy winter wonderland for as far as you can see in 3 lifetimes.

He's too impatient. He was still in a good situation 1 week ago. He has bright people like VW on his side, policy wonks want to join his party.

Even the third party in the UK is in power now in a coalition, not Labour.

Basically he screwed up and played the wrong card.

As of now, a lot of people out there have left their parties. The biggest development in the last 2 years is people of the new guard sick and tired of the old guard and leaving their parties. People leaving RP, people leaving SPP, now people leaving SDP. If Tan Jee Say is smart, what he should do right now is to start a new political party and take all these people under his wing.

 

[eatshitndie]

btw, i'm not praising dr. chee. i'm praising the writer the article. big difference.

 

[sleaguepunter]

whoever wrote this is no simpleton. politically astute and a master strategist.

you see? there's hope for sg. there are still sharp scissors around.

uncle, u senile liao lah.

whoever wrote that is the same as everyone here.

a keyboard warrior.

 

[laksaboy]

I can relate this to the world of smartphones.

The market is dominated by iPhones and Android phones, you can't beat either one by yourself. You have two options:

1. Try to grab the number 3 market share for yourself - a very distant 3rd position and a measly market share. That's what Windows and Blackberry are fighting for right now.

2. Attempt a strategic alliance with either one of the market leaders and attempt to get some spillover effects from brand recognition and market share. That's what some Linux-based phones are doing, which offer the option to run ported Android apps.

 

[SgParent]

.

What kind of anal-ysis is this?

"Blocking" move? Like what Fatty Desmond did in GE2011. So has Fatty's stock risen? Or the other way is truer?

 

[eatshitndie]

uncle, u senile liao lah.

whoever wrote that is the same as everyone here.

a keyboard warrior.

i'm only 21. just completed ns and sharing a room with drifter and tfbh.

 

[kongsimi]

yeah lah. fifteen years still no progress.

what a master strategist indeed.

 

[eatshitndie]

yeah lah. fifteen years still no progress.

what a master strategist indeed.

he's a master stretcherist. can stretch longer if needed. the author of politicalwritings, however, is the master strategerist.

 

[metalmickey]

he's a master stretcherist. can stretch longer if needed. the author of politicalwritings, however, is the master strategerist.

Yeh, take Chee Soon Juan out on a stretcher.

I don't 100% agree with PoliticalWritings. I agree up to the point where the status of SDP is under threat due to WP becoming number 1 party. But I can add that most people will think that it is WP's right to compete in the BE, and therefore SDP not competing is not necessarily a sign of weakness.

 

[eatshitndie]

Yeh, take Chee Soon Juan out on a stretcher.

I don't 100% agree with PoliticalWritings. I agree up to the point where the status of SDP is under threat due to WP becoming number 1 party. But I can add that most people will think that it is WP's right to compete in the BE, and therefore SDP not competing is not necessarily a sign of weakness.

sdp as a party may make a comeback after this rare "opportunity". 2016 is too stretched for the master stretcherist. very few or diminishing chances to make a significant comeback. the problem with political parties in sg, including the ruling one and not just oppos, is their family style "monopolization" by their respective supreme dear leaders... and dynastic heir apparents if faultless leader goes up the lorry. a truly democratic and mature party will have critical mass of consensus builders and elders to run, balance and carry it over decades and generations. mutations, variations, compromises and idiosyncracies may occur with each generation of leaders (not dear leader) but the general theme and central philosophy stay reasonably intact. in sg parties, the sitting leader redefine the party with the help of servile sycophants.

 

[mojito]

Good analysis my foot. The simple reason is that Chee has recently been unshackled and is a little over-eager to mobilize his troops.

 

[metalmickey]

sdp as a party may make a comeback after this rare "opportunity". 2016 is too stretched for the master stretcherist. very few or diminishing chances to make a significant comeback. the problem with political parties in sg, including the ruling one and not just oppos, is their family style "monopolization" by their respective supreme dear leaders... and dynastic heir apparents if faultless leader goes up the lorry. a truly democratic and mature party will have critical mass of consensus builders and elders to run, balance and carry it over decades and generations. mutations, variations, compromises and idiosyncracies may occur with each generation of leaders (not dear leader) but the general theme and central philosophy stay reasonably intact. in sg parties, the sitting leader redefine the party with the help of servile sycophants.

A lot of parties are different. PAP is definitely run like a dictatorship. WP may or may not also be run like a dictatorship, but if it is, why are so many people out there eager for WP to be one and only opposition party to present the best possible resistance to the PAP? Replacing one dictatorship with two dictatorships does not sound very appealing to me.

There are pros and cons to both approaches - the party with strong ideological foundation (ie UK Labour party before Blair) may not be able to change with the times and when they get outdated they cannot appeal to the voters. The party with strong leader (ie UK Labour party under Blair) may be a dictatorship, but they can change with the times. Unfortunately, dictatorships eventually run into problems because the leader makes mistakes and nobody can correct him. In fact, a party which is run by 1 dictator is easier to change and mutate than one that is run by an old guard, because changing the mind of one person is easier than changing the minds of 10 people.

I don't buy the idea that we should have only two main parties in Singapore. Now we can afford many parties. Later when the opposition matures, we can affored 3-4 main ones. We should have one more centrist party like WP and one more ideological and democratic one like SDP before this current crisis. Newer, non-WP opposition parties are important vehicles for the new guard to come in and play a big part on the scene.

If you have the time go and find the book "Servants of the People" by Andrew Rawnsley. It is an account of party politics under New Labour. It will teach you a lot about how party politics works.

 

[LeMans2011]

This thought process does not include what the voters think at all.

All are self-centered thought process of making themselves better. Where is the consideration of the people?

That is why i stay away from sinkies.. they only care about themselves.

Yet another masterpiece from Tonychat. Finally i understand the meaning of Sinkies

 

[winners]

That is why i stay away from sinkies.. they only care about themselves.

Tony, this I fully concur. Majority of Sinkies are selfish, self-centered and arrogant.

 

[rodent2005]

Many people pity Dr. Chee, but that must not be mistaken for supporting Dr. Chee and his strategy. Personally, I don't agree to anything that will improve PAP's chances of winning.

How effective can SDP be and how effective have they been when they are not in Parliament? You don't have to make noises all the time over every single matter under the sun; you just need to hit the PAP at the right spot. And you can't do that protesting on the streets; you can only do that when you are in Parliament.

Sorry but I must say Dr. Chee might have read the market wrongly.