Republic of China (Taiwan) is an independent country and it is not a province of PRC 
Let hope DPP win the 3rd term this coming weekend
Let hope DPP win the 3rd term this coming weekend
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Chitchat Will DPP Lai Ching-Te win the Taiwan Presidential Election this weekend ?
- Thread starter Bad New Brown
- Start date
If KMT cannot win this weekend, they are finished together with that old fool KO.
A Taiwan that is not control by China is good for the world
If KMT cannot win this weekend, they are finished together with that old fool KO.
A Taiwan that is not control by China is good for the world
As far as I'm concerned, all nations should preemptively and proactively smash up mainland China into smaller countries. Commit genocide if you need to. Outlying ethnic minority regions become independent states.
Once that is achieved, the world suddenly becomes much more peaceful. No more shit stirring in the Taiwan Straits, the South China Sea, and the mountainous border with India. No more interfering in the elections of other countries. No more scam and kidnapping syndicates. No more development of bioweapons. No more backing for Hamas, Houthis and Iran.
It's time to erase the stain on the planet that has been there since 1949.
People in Taiwan must look at Hong Kong now before deciding to vote for Chinese communist terrorists
Taiwan, Japan, Korea and Vietnam should consider to merge in the near future to counter China threat
In ASEAN context, Indonesia, Philippines and Malaysia are working behind the scene to invite Australia and New Zealand to join ASEAN bloc permanently
Lai Lai Lai....let play show hand
Long term gain , short term pain for u，“Sir”
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/01/09/world/politics/xi-biden-10-trillion-war-taiwan/
Only 10trillion dollars mah, kym?
Long term gain , short term pain for u，“Sir”
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/01/09/world/politics/xi-biden-10-trillion-war-taiwan/
Only 10trillion dollars mah, kym?
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WORLD / POLITICS
Xi, Biden and the $10 trillion cost of war over Taiwan
A Taiwan Air Force Mirage 2000-5 aircraft prepares to land in Hsinchu, Taiwan, on Jan. 2. In the event of a conflict with China, Taiwan would face a military that rivals that of the U.S.
A Taiwan Air Force Mirage 2000-5 aircraft prepares to land in Hsinchu, Taiwan, on Jan. 2. In the event of a conflict with China, Taiwan would face a military that rivals that of the U.S.
| REUTERS
BY JENNY LEONARD, MAEVA COUSIN, JENNIFER WELCH, GERARD DIPIPPO AND TOM ORLIK
BLOOMBERG
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Jan 9, 2024
War over Taiwan would have a cost in blood and treasure so vast that even those unhappiest with the status quo have reason not to risk it. Bloomberg Economics estimate the price tag at around $10 trillion, equal to about 10% of global gross domestic product — dwarfing the blow from the war in Ukraine, COVID-19 pandemic and 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis. China’s rising economic and military heft, Taiwan’s burgeoning sense of national identity, and fractious relations between Beijing and Washington mean the conditions for a crisis are in place.
With cross-strait relations on the ballot, Taiwan’s Jan. 13 election is a potential flashpoint.
Few put a high probability on an imminent Chinese invasion. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) isn't massing troops on the coast. Reports of corruption in China’s military cast doubts on President Xi Jinping's ability to wage a successful campaign.
U.S. officials say tensions eased somewhat at the November summit between President Joe Biden and Xi, who pledged "heartwarming” measures to woo foreign investors.
The Japan Times
Login
WORLD / POLITICS
Xi, Biden and the $10 trillion cost of war over Taiwan
A Taiwan Air Force Mirage 2000-5 aircraft prepares to land in Hsinchu, Taiwan, on Jan. 2. In the event of a conflict with China, Taiwan would face a military that rivals that of the U.S.
A Taiwan Air Force Mirage 2000-5 aircraft prepares to land in Hsinchu, Taiwan, on Jan. 2. In the event of a conflict with China, Taiwan would face a military that rivals that of the U.S.
| REUTERS
BY JENNY LEONARD, MAEVA COUSIN, JENNIFER WELCH, GERARD DIPIPPO AND TOM ORLIK
BLOOMBERG
SHARE
Jan 9, 2024
War over Taiwan would have a cost in blood and treasure so vast that even those unhappiest with the status quo have reason not to risk it. Bloomberg Economics estimate the price tag at around $10 trillion, equal to about 10% of global gross domestic product — dwarfing the blow from the war in Ukraine, COVID-19 pandemic and 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis. China’s rising economic and military heft, Taiwan’s burgeoning sense of national identity, and fractious relations between Beijing and Washington mean the conditions for a crisis are in place.
With cross-strait relations on the ballot, Taiwan’s Jan. 13 election is a potential flashpoint.
Few put a high probability on an imminent Chinese invasion. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) isn't massing troops on the coast. Reports of corruption in China’s military cast doubts on President Xi Jinping's ability to wage a successful campaign.
U.S. officials say tensions eased somewhat at the November summit between President Joe Biden and Xi, who pledged "heartwarming” measures to woo foreign investors.
Still, the outbreak of war in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip are reminders of how long-simmering tensions can erupt into conflict. Everyone from Wall Street investors to military planners and the swathe of businesses that rely on Taiwan’s semiconductors are already moving to hedge against the risk.
National security experts in the Pentagon, think tanks in the United States and Japan, and global consulting firms are gaming out scenarios from a Chinese maritime "quarantine" of Taiwan, to the seizure of Taiwan's outlying islands, and a full-scale Chinese invasion.
Jude Blanchette, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says interest in a Taiwan crisis from multinational firms he advises has "exploded” since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The subject comes up in 95% of conversations, he said.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the semiconductor shortage as the world reopened from COVID-19 lockdowns, provide a small glimpse of what’s at stake for the global economy. The impact of war in the Taiwan Strait would be far bigger.
National security experts in the Pentagon, think tanks in the United States and Japan, and global consulting firms are gaming out scenarios from a Chinese maritime "quarantine" of Taiwan, to the seizure of Taiwan's outlying islands, and a full-scale Chinese invasion.
Jude Blanchette, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says interest in a Taiwan crisis from multinational firms he advises has "exploded” since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The subject comes up in 95% of conversations, he said.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the semiconductor shortage as the world reopened from COVID-19 lockdowns, provide a small glimpse of what’s at stake for the global economy. The impact of war in the Taiwan Strait would be far bigger.
Taiwan makes most of the world’s advanced logic semiconductors, and a lot of lagging edge chips — technologies older than 7 nanometers — as well. Globally, 5.6% of total value added comes from sectors using chips as direct inputs — nearly $6 trillion.
Total market cap for the top 20 customers of chip giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is around $7.4 trillion. The Taiwan Strait is one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.
Total market cap for the top 20 customers of chip giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is around $7.4 trillion. The Taiwan Strait is one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.
Modeling the cost of a crisis
Bloomberg Economics has modeled two scenarios: a Chinese invasion drawing the U.S. into a local conflict and a blockade cutting Taiwan off from trade with the rest of the world. A suite of models is used to estimate the impact on GDP, taking account of the blow to semiconductor supply, disruption to shipping in the region, trade sanctions and tariffs, and the impact on financial markets.
For the main protagonists, other major economies, and the world as a whole, the biggest hit comes from the missing semiconductors. Factory lines producing laptops, tablets and smartphones — where Taiwan’s high-end chips are the irreplaceable "golden screw” — would stall. Autos and other sectors that use lower-end chips would also take a significant hit.
Barriers to trade and a significant risk-off shock in financial markets add to the costs.
In the case of a war:
Taiwan’s economy would be decimated. Based on comparable recent conflicts, Bloomberg Economics estimates a 40% blow to GDP. A population and industrial base concentrated on the coast would add to the human and economic cost.
For China, with relations to major trade partners turned off and no access to advanced semiconductors, its GDP would suffer a 16.7% blow.
For the U.S., further from the center of the action but still with a lot at stake — through the reliance of Apple on the Asian electronics supply chain, for example — GDP would be down 6.7%.
Bloomberg Economics has modeled two scenarios: a Chinese invasion drawing the U.S. into a local conflict and a blockade cutting Taiwan off from trade with the rest of the world. A suite of models is used to estimate the impact on GDP, taking account of the blow to semiconductor supply, disruption to shipping in the region, trade sanctions and tariffs, and the impact on financial markets.
For the main protagonists, other major economies, and the world as a whole, the biggest hit comes from the missing semiconductors. Factory lines producing laptops, tablets and smartphones — where Taiwan’s high-end chips are the irreplaceable "golden screw” — would stall. Autos and other sectors that use lower-end chips would also take a significant hit.
Barriers to trade and a significant risk-off shock in financial markets add to the costs.
In the case of a war:
Taiwan’s economy would be decimated. Based on comparable recent conflicts, Bloomberg Economics estimates a 40% blow to GDP. A population and industrial base concentrated on the coast would add to the human and economic cost.
For China, with relations to major trade partners turned off and no access to advanced semiconductors, its GDP would suffer a 16.7% blow.
For the U.S., further from the center of the action but still with a lot at stake — through the reliance of Apple on the Asian electronics supply chain, for example — GDP would be down 6.7%.
Then, we have a Mega Black Swan event for Global Huat Big Big Rally next weekRepublic of China (Taiwan) is an independent country and it is not a province of PRC
Let hope DPP win the 3rd term this coming weekend
Heng Ong Huat to u , boss
I like how they remind sg it is the smallest fuck around, and don’t forget, once a bastard always a bastard
Properly a Referendum of Asia Pacific Cheekaboom Era as well
Nz and Aussie are dominion of Great Britain...these are 上国，how can they be treated equally as those debt serf pokkai?
Ready to put short options if TW choose LaiThank you, boss ... great fortune to you too
