It is rightly true to an extent that a major war may not break out at this moment. All the powers, US,China and to a lesser extent Russia would not allow things to spiral out of control. From a strategic perspective, the country who fear a war the most is South Korea.
Having build up their economy successfully, Seoul cannot allow a war to destroy her hard-earned economy and social development build over the last 30 years. South Korea knows very clearly that if war breaks up,Pyongyang will destroy the whole of South Korea. A military response from the US on the north will not make any strategic sense if all of her infastructure are destroyed. The South Korean military and government as Koreans themselves have no doubt the intention, capability and determination of the northern neighbor to raze the South into oblivion. The violent artillery response from North Korea is a clear example of what the North Koreans are capable of. No matter how modern the South military are, this single determination to wage war are unbalanced between the 2 Koreas.
The United States would not also want a war with the North Koreans or worse the Chinese.Fighting east Asians in WW2 with the japanese had cast a subtle fear of the US in fighting East Asians. This was further made worse by subsequent encounters with the Chinese Peoples' Liberation Army troops (Chinese peoples Voulunteer force) during the Korean War which beat back the US and UN troops. As MM Lee Kuan Yew once mentioned, the US military was taken aback by the determination,discipline and ferocity of Chinese( a long seen Sick Man of the East) troops fighting in a "Ding Dong" battle.The Vietnam War serves another example. Thus, the fact that the Chinese can fought and beat the US army(iiregardless of casualties) somewhat strike fear on them.
China too did not want a war breaking up next door. Having basked in great power success economically, militarily and socially, the last thing China wants is instability. While China will joined in to support the north Koreans if a war breaks out, the North cannot expect the support to be similar during the Korean war in 1950. This is because the chinese was fighting for their dignity, their country's survival and all sorts of strategic concerns then.Thus despite China's excuses of her limited influence on Pyongyang, the close military relations mean a certain influence of the PLA on the North Korean top brass.
Thus,the South can only used a deterrence kind of tactic against the north as far as a military confrontation is concerned. That is why their reponse is always massive military exercises. The South cannot afford to have even a 25-30% destruction of Seoul's infastructure. That would mean an end to its globalised economy and the whole country as well. Moreover its conscripted army means answering to parents if their sons died in the thousands. This fear is most starked when the joint naval exercises with the US aircraft carrier took place further away from the demarcation line with the North. A planned artillery exercise in the island of yeongpbeong was also cancelled after the North were heard firing their artilleries in exercises of their own.The US and South Korean navies were also placed in the highest alert with intelligence reports that the North Korean military had places missiles on launch pads. Coupled with shrill warnings ( now taken seriously) by the north Korean military against "violating its terrritories", South Korea have to act cautiously against any eventualities of a war.
It is very unfair to describe South Korea and her response negatively.Having experienced the korean war and of the same race, the south cannot act in a rash matter. Even the US military response was always limited and cautious when it comes to North Korea. The secretive nature of the North Korean military add to this fear.To make things worse, it is now nuclear-armed.Many didn't realised that the whole Korean peninsular will be reduced to rubble if there is a war. Yes, the regime in the North may collapsed but the whole of the South may be a flat land too.
The world must not let this human catastrophic to happen.
Having build up their economy successfully, Seoul cannot allow a war to destroy her hard-earned economy and social development build over the last 30 years. South Korea knows very clearly that if war breaks up,Pyongyang will destroy the whole of South Korea. A military response from the US on the north will not make any strategic sense if all of her infastructure are destroyed. The South Korean military and government as Koreans themselves have no doubt the intention, capability and determination of the northern neighbor to raze the South into oblivion. The violent artillery response from North Korea is a clear example of what the North Koreans are capable of. No matter how modern the South military are, this single determination to wage war are unbalanced between the 2 Koreas.
The United States would not also want a war with the North Koreans or worse the Chinese.Fighting east Asians in WW2 with the japanese had cast a subtle fear of the US in fighting East Asians. This was further made worse by subsequent encounters with the Chinese Peoples' Liberation Army troops (Chinese peoples Voulunteer force) during the Korean War which beat back the US and UN troops. As MM Lee Kuan Yew once mentioned, the US military was taken aback by the determination,discipline and ferocity of Chinese( a long seen Sick Man of the East) troops fighting in a "Ding Dong" battle.The Vietnam War serves another example. Thus, the fact that the Chinese can fought and beat the US army(iiregardless of casualties) somewhat strike fear on them.
China too did not want a war breaking up next door. Having basked in great power success economically, militarily and socially, the last thing China wants is instability. While China will joined in to support the north Koreans if a war breaks out, the North cannot expect the support to be similar during the Korean war in 1950. This is because the chinese was fighting for their dignity, their country's survival and all sorts of strategic concerns then.Thus despite China's excuses of her limited influence on Pyongyang, the close military relations mean a certain influence of the PLA on the North Korean top brass.
Thus,the South can only used a deterrence kind of tactic against the north as far as a military confrontation is concerned. That is why their reponse is always massive military exercises. The South cannot afford to have even a 25-30% destruction of Seoul's infastructure. That would mean an end to its globalised economy and the whole country as well. Moreover its conscripted army means answering to parents if their sons died in the thousands. This fear is most starked when the joint naval exercises with the US aircraft carrier took place further away from the demarcation line with the North. A planned artillery exercise in the island of yeongpbeong was also cancelled after the North were heard firing their artilleries in exercises of their own.The US and South Korean navies were also placed in the highest alert with intelligence reports that the North Korean military had places missiles on launch pads. Coupled with shrill warnings ( now taken seriously) by the north Korean military against "violating its terrritories", South Korea have to act cautiously against any eventualities of a war.
It is very unfair to describe South Korea and her response negatively.Having experienced the korean war and of the same race, the south cannot act in a rash matter. Even the US military response was always limited and cautious when it comes to North Korea. The secretive nature of the North Korean military add to this fear.To make things worse, it is now nuclear-armed.Many didn't realised that the whole Korean peninsular will be reduced to rubble if there is a war. Yes, the regime in the North may collapsed but the whole of the South may be a flat land too.
The world must not let this human catastrophic to happen.
