What happened at the East coast GRC?

[Forvendet]

I maintain that Glenda will be a liability for WP team simply because she is based in HK and flies in for Elections. With the string slate of candidates, I'm sure they can put someone better there. Her reputation as a "Uncle Killer" will also be diminished by 2016 as she will be 39 then and an aunty herself :-)

That about the slate five years later I don't know of course. But my guess is, if she progresses in political maturity like that, five years later she can become another Sylvia Lim. Then again have to agree with you, better for her to find a job in Sg.

 

[GoldenDragon]

That about the slate five years later I don't know of course. But my guess is, if she progresses in political maturity like that, five years later she can become another Sylvia Lim. Then again have to agree with you, better for her to find a job in Sg.

Need KTV job?

 

[scroobal]

In 2006 GE, East Coast GRC was considered vulnerable because of 2 factors - Jayakumar who was never popular and Tarmuggi who is not popular with the Malays and who was blamed for Mendaki fiasco of 1991 and sidelined. In fact it was more vulnerable than GY then and ST and the PAP began to do major press releases to prop up Jayakumar and company to avoid a Lee Yiok Suan epsiode of Cheng San. Old man even came out to say who Jayakimar was an asset and well known in the International community. As it turned out GY ended up being the target.

The WP East Coast team were relatively unknown then such as Ti Lik, Brandon, plus one vet Eric.

In this GE, WP East Coast team had Gerald Giam who was considered a catch, given profile by LTK and who carried himself well. They also had Eric and not to mention Glenda Han who always came across well. That's 3 high profile at least at tier 2 level.

On the PAP side , the incumbent holding the second most unpopular (maybe first) portfolio - Transport (Raymond Lim) in it. Enough for the apology from LHL to include transport as an issue after housing. We also have the LSS who exactly is not someone who should be associated with anything but drama and arts. The rest are Maliki, Jessica and Li Yi Shyan. It is also a mixed residential area with many condo and private housing. In such areas it hard to harness uniform support and commitment.

Then we have the overall WP banner as the support ................................

One thing does surprise many is the lack of press reporting and candidate exposure of this GRC.

Can anyone explain what caused the poor performance in East coast GRC?

 

[jw5]

East coast grc had the lowest winning % among grcs probably for the following reasons:

1. A strong wp team.
2. Traditionally, the area has been quite pro opposition.
3. Raymond is probably not that popular.
4. Perhaps people are beginning to see through LSS.

 

[Forvendet]

I notice WP EC team members are all semi-Eurasians, i.e. English speaking by first language standard but weak in Chinese. Yes, Joo Chiat and East Coast are traditional Eurasian hubs but traditional Chinese uncles and aunties still outnumber Eurasians, Malays and others by manyfolds. Before the election, I thought that Chen Show Mao would be deployed in East Coast to fill the Chinese gap. On hindsight based on the results, I have to applaud Low Thia Khiang for being right. Doing that most likely end up WP 49% at both Aljunied and East Cost and winning nothing.

 

[Echo_O]

Interesting to note that the largest support for WP came from the landed property area around Simpang Bedok.
Bedok HDB estate still have alot of oldies who believe that there will be repercussions for them and their families if the do not vote PAP.

 

[dankos]

this hdb thing is not just restricted to bedok, its right across spore with the exception of hougang n aljunied. the assumption that the rich vote for pap n poor want change is wrong.

80% of spore stay in hdb. if out of these 80%, 70% voted for oppo, that would mean 56% of the population. like that pap KO liao. all along it has been the heartlanders that is pap's strongest supporter.

 

[Logisex]

You think all those living in condo and landed property are all super rich people who have never taken public transport and send their kids to international schools?
Do you think the Joo Chiat residents are not angry about the la sup bars in their neighborhood and the Viet whores?

They are also affected by rising cost of living, sky high property prices/tax, ERP, FT in their residential area/workplace and their kids also have to compete with the FTs in public schools/locak Uni. You think they not tulan? My uncle who live in condo kpkb about the rising property tax (twice a year!) and said he wants to downgrade to HDB liao.

 

[dankos]

You think all those living in condo and landed property are all super rich people who have never taken public transport and send their kids to international schools?
Do you think the Joo Chiat residents are not angry about the la sup bars in their neighborhood and the Viet whores?

.

40% very tulan.
60% still pap or bochup.

the 40% got to lan lan bear with it.

 

[Echo_O]

You think all those living in condo and landed property are all super rich people who have never taken public transport and send their kids to international schools?
Do you think the Joo Chiat residents are not angry about the la sup bars in their neighborhood and the Viet whores?

They are also affected by rising cost of living, sky high property prices/tax, ERP, FT in their residential area/workplace and their kids also have to compete with the FTs in public schools/locak Uni. You think they not tulan? My uncle who live in condo kpkb about the rising property tax (twice a year!) and said he wants to downgrade to HDB liao.

FYI the la sup bars along Joo Chiat road are not under Joo Chiat SMC.
Siglap SMC would have been a more suitable name

 

[Char_Azn]

Hi..!

The margin of victory of East coast GRC comes as a surprise. LSS was thrown into EC GRC (instead of Aljunied) because he wanted a "safe" seat. The margin of victory is a surprise to many including me!

The WP team was relatively unknown and their campaign was also low key compared to Holland Bukit timah or Marine Parade or even Tampines. The PAP campaign was well done.

Internally the PAP was of the view that they will get a 65% majority. My own model gave them 62%. In fact one reason why ST never covered the campaign, was that there was no "interest" as LSS will cruise through.

Yet a relatively unknown WP team with average campaign has scared the shit of the PAP.

Can anyone explain what caused the poor performance in East coast GRC?

From what I heard

EC GRC top honcho Jayakumar retire

East Coast doesn't have any strong candidates other then him. The residents of EC doesn't really like the other 3, Jayakumar was the one they've always look for. If Jayakumar was around, they would have won easily

LSS was transferred there not to save his skin, it's the other way round. It's to save EC from falling. LSS is a Union guy which means he is a more pple person then most others in his team. The fact that won by only a small margin proves that the transfer was a right one. If they didn't transfer him over and just kept the current noob team, EC would also have fell. WP should start working on EC GRC as it is another potential staging area

 

[Wang Ye]

Well my 2 cents worth as an East Coast voter.

1) Jayakumar no longer there (I believe he is rather popular due to his willingness to write in on behave of residents no matter how lost the cause). But there seems to be conflicting views on whether he is popular or not. They were expecting a win of 70% during 2006.

2) Raymond Lim as transport minister is hated by motorists. Despite the fact that he takes every MPS case personally he is very blunt when it comes to cases with no hope (from his prospective).

3) Bedok and Chai Chee has traddtionally been very supportive of WP in the past before the GRC system.

4) WP had a decent team there, plus the Gerald Giam's performance during the debate raised his profile.

5) Alot of people are fed-up.

 

[nato33]

Interesting to note that the largest support for WP came from the landed property area around Simpang Bedok.
Bedok HDB estate still have alot of oldies who believe that there will be repercussions for them and their families if the do not vote PAP.

is the source of where the precincts voted public info? If so, where can this be found? Thanks.

 

[annexa]

You all keeping talking WP, you forgot very important Chiam See Tong. His Potong Pasir is just next to EC. The PP battle also spilled over to EC side. The realisation that Chiam will not be there probably cause some panic to a few. The ever more crowded EC Park and the once relaxing neighborhood become crowded also pissed many people off.

Next round when they need to divide up PP into 2 or parts, EC will be one natural recipient of a slice or the whole PP. Of course PAP not so stupid put whole PP in. But if they have to choose MP without GCT (80+ years old by 2016), EC or Bishan (Chiam and Pwee is there), the choice for PP's adoptor is obvious. Whoever remains in EC next round (if still got EC) is very fucked and should start to scare now.

 

[serenditpity]

3 aspects:

The earlier PAP level of margin.
No major issue against LSS.
WP B grade team
Low key election campaign.

My share for them was 61+/-3%.

54% was unexpected.

Dear Seren

Your model gave the PAP a swing of 66 to 60 , what made you think that the East Coast PAP team would be immune to that national swing ? I have some idea from the ground but I would like to hear your views.


Locke

 

[lockeliberal]

Dear Seren

I the errrr Malay vote which was apparently not an issue at LHL's post election briefing

Locke

3 aspects:

The earlier PAP level of margin.
No major issue against LSS.
WP B grade team
Low key election campaign.

My share for them was 61+/-3%.

54% was unexpected.

 

[serenditpity]

U r right. The model doesn't take care of spillover effect. It is difficult to model the spillover effect. Having said that, the NSP (though it performed reasonably) had no "killer proposition" to offer. Unless NSP defines a clear value proposition, I dont see the fortunes changing for them.

hmm, could it be a spillover from Aljunied? (I dun think ur model accounts for that component) I thought one thing that was interesting abt the general WP strategy was that it contested seats which surrounded Aljunied GRC. While most of the resources are poured into the said GRC, there is bound to be a spillover effect with residents from the surrounding areas going to Aljunied rallies, as well as the attention of voters recognizing the importance of the Aljunied race, which will be further heightened by their geographical proximity to Aljunied. (As for East Coast, you have to factor in the introduction of a new PAP candidate, and the superior stature of the WP candidates there as compared to the other WP teams, it was almost akin to a B plus team) Conversely, the rallies were held at the different GRCs every night, but always at a location that is close to a component of Aljunied GRC, so indirectly, it is an incessant nine day campaign that took place within and around the priced target.

Take this and compare it with the NSP model, which waged it's bets all over the roulette table, thereby not able to take hold of the advantages of geographical proximity.

Next for the WP, I hope they will further emanate the Aljunied centric strategy and expand the center into East Coast, Nee Soon and maybe even Moulmein Kallang next election, and field B teams in the peripheral areas around these GRCs. But that will mean stepping upon other's toes, but I think u are now THE OPPOSITION - why do u need to give two hoots about the other minnows.

 

[serenditpity]

I agree with everything that you say!

WP will do well to start their grassroots activities in East Coast GRC. Similar to what Sylvia Lim did in Aljunied after GE2006 by combing all the blocks.

Given the history of gerrymandering and the extremely close call of Joo Chiat. As expectd, and very likely, PAP will merge Joo Chiat into either Marine Parade or East Coast. My take is Marine Parade as the support for WP is real whereas in Marine Parade, the swing of votes was primarily due to the battle of the "Mei Mei"s and this won't be a strong factor in GE 2016.

Glenda Han may not be a good choice for the East Coast GRC team as she is based in HK and flying back just for elections will not be viewed favorably by voters.

As Joo Chiat will be gone, it may make sense to have JJ Yee replace Glenda and another stronger leader replace Eric Tan in GE 2016. Hopefully, with the momentum that WP have gained, they can attract a higher caliber of candidate, similar to Chen Show Mao perhaps, to lead the team.

 

[sgge2011]

You all keeping talking WP, you forgot very important Chiam See Tong. His Potong Pasir is just next to EC. The PP battle also spilled over to EC side. The realisation that Chiam will not be there probably cause some panic to a few. The ever more crowded EC Park and the once relaxing neighborhood become crowded also pissed many people off.

Next round when they need to divide up PP into 2 or parts, EC will be one natural recipient of a slice or the whole PP. Of course PAP not so stupid put whole PP in. But if they have to choose MP without GCT (80+ years old by 2016), EC or Bishan (Chiam and Pwee is there), the choice for PP's adoptor is obvious. Whoever remains in EC next round (if still got EC) is very fucked and should start to scare now.

I suggest you look at the map again. Potong Pasir SMC and East Coast GRC are separated by Marine Parade GRC.

In the 2016 election,
1) Potong Pasir SMC would probably be divided into 3 parts and merged with M-K GRC, B-TP GRC and Marine Parade GRC.
2) Joo Chiat SMC would probably be merged with Marine Parade GRC.
3) Workers Party might contest Tampines GRC as it's near to Aljunied GRC. To do that, they will have to exchange M-K GRC with NSP.

It's just like a game of RISK, where you take one battle at a time.

 

[Robert Half]

Joo Chiat also. PAP's model did not predict that Eastern Singapore is in open rebellion.

Wow Well Done