US Inflation Quickens to 40-Year High, Pressuring Fed and Biden
ByOlivia Rockeman
June 10, 2022, 8:33 PM GMT+8Updated onJune 10, 2022, 10:19 PM GMT+8
- Consumer price index rose 8.6% in May annually, 1% from April
- Shelter, food and gas were biggest contributors to advance
The so-called core CPI, which strips out the more volatile food and energy components, rose 0.6% from the prior month and 6% from a year ago, also above forecasts.
The figures dash any hope that inflation had already peaked and was starting to ebb. Record gasoline prices, paired with unrelenting food and shelter costs, are adding strain to Americans’ cost of living, suggesting the Fed will have to pump the brakes on the economy even harder. That raises the risk of a recession, which some economists already saw as likely next year.
“There’s little respite from four-decade high inflation until energy and food costs simmer down and excess demand pressures abate in response to tighter monetary policy,” Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note. “The Fed might still raise policy rates ‘just’ 50 bps next week, but it could easily ratchet up the pace beyond then if inflation keeps surprising to the high side.”
Two-year Treasury yields jumped, stocks opened lower and the dollar rose. Traders fully priced in three 50-basis-point rate hikes over the Fed’s next three policy meetings in June, July and September.
In May, prices for necessities continued to rise at double-digit paces. Energy prices climbed 34.6% from a year earlier, the most since 2005, including a nearly 49% jump in gasoline costs. Gas prices so far in June have climbed to new highs, signaling more upward pressure in coming CPI reports and therefore keeping the Fed in the hot seat.
Grocery prices rose 11.9% annually, the most since 1979, while electricity increased 12%, the most since August 2006. Rent of primary of residence climbed 5.2% from a year earlier, the most since 1987.
There are growing risks that price pressures in those categories will continue to build. Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, as well as stepped-up related sanctions; potential port disruption due to the upcoming West Coast dockworker contract expiration; Covid-related lockdowns in China and drought and could all contribute to higher prices for food and energy.
“Tighter monetary policy will not help much with surging global commodity prices or structural changes in the way people spend and live in the post-pandemic economy,” Wells Fargo & Co. economists Sarah House and Michael Pugliese said in a note.
That likely spells further trouble for President Joe Biden, whose approval ratings have sunk to new lows ahead of midterm elections later this year. While the job market remains a bright spot, decades-high inflation is crippling confidence among the American people and largely outpacing wage gains.
Inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings fell 3% in May from a year earlier, the biggest drop since April 2021 and the 14th straight decline, separate data showed Friday.
Furniture, including bedding, was one of the few categories to post a monthly decline. Prices for goods such as apparel, meanwhile, continued to climb, contributing to the stronger-than-forecast core figures.
Before the report, economists had already revised up their estimates for year-over-year inflation through the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest Bloomberg survey.
Source:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...expectedly-accelerates-to-40-year-high-of-8-6
