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Tiagong, interest rate cut not so soon de woh....Boss John KYM?
- Thread starter k1976
- Start date
The US Dollar (USD) trades in the green on Thursday after both US Retail Sales for February and Producer Price data got released. It was the Producer Price release which had the last say in where the Greenback would go. With a firm beat in both the Headline and the Core measures, traders are starting to get nervous that June might become an uncertainty for that initial rate cut from the US Federal Reserve.
On the economic data front, the dust can start to settle on the disappointment from the PPI numbers. From now on look for the Greenback to rally further once the European session is set to close and the US session takes over completely. Traders meanwhile will be looking ahead for the Industrial Production and University of Michigan numbers on Friday.
On the economic data front, the dust can start to settle on the disappointment from the PPI numbers. From now on look for the Greenback to rally further once the European session is set to close and the US session takes over completely. Traders meanwhile will be looking ahead for the Industrial Production and University of Michigan numbers on Friday.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Disappointment all around
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading higher and is flirting with a break above 103.00 after the upside surprise in all elements on the Produce Price data. Markets were geared up for rather a confirmation of further disinflation, which seems not to be the case. Question will start to arise now if June is still possible and a pushback could be at hand seeing the tighter window in which data needs to start convincing the US Federal Reserve that the timing is right for that initial rate cut.On the upside, the first reclaiming ground is at 103.38, the 55-day SMA. Not far above, a double barrier is set to hit with the 100-day SMA near 103.68 and the 200-day SMA near 103.70. Depending on the catalyst that pushes the DXY upwards, 104.96 remains the key level on the topside.
The DXY was unable to even test or challenge the 55-day SMA after the CPI print. More downside looks inevitable with 102.00 up next, which bears some pivotal relevance. Once through there, the road is open for another leg lower to 100.61, the low of 2023.
Higher interest rates are meant to lower inflation. US economist John Cochrane says there's only 'shaky' evidence it works
By business reporter Michael Janda and The Business presenter Alicia BarryPosted 8h ago8 hours ago
WATCH
Duration: 11 minutes 37 seconds11m
As many households struggle under the weight of 13 interest rate hikes, leading US Economist John Cochrane says rate hikes alone are not enough to control inflation and governments needs to do more.
When the Reserve Bank of Australia invited US economist John H Cochrane to present a paper at its annual conference, it would have had a fair idea what it was getting. He had just published a book outlining his views.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/103587562
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rat...-herald-new-era-financial-markets-2024-03-13/
Nippon say Higher Rate is Good For Economy
SINGAPORE, March 13 (Reuters) - Barely weeks after Japanese stocks broke three-decade highs, the country's financial markets are hurtling toward another phenomenon not seen for the best part of a generation: rising interest rates.
Bankers are attending remedial classes on what to do when rates move and trading rooms are setting up for moribund derivative markets to spring to life -- as they have begun to do.
Their pricing implies a matter of months at the most before the last bastion of a decades-long monetary policy experiment with negative short-term rates falls. An exit by the Bank of Japan is expected by June, with an even chance that rates will rise to zero next week.
Nippon say Higher Rate is Good For Economy
SINGAPORE, March 13 (Reuters) - Barely weeks after Japanese stocks broke three-decade highs, the country's financial markets are hurtling toward another phenomenon not seen for the best part of a generation: rising interest rates.
Bankers are attending remedial classes on what to do when rates move and trading rooms are setting up for moribund derivative markets to spring to life -- as they have begun to do.
Their pricing implies a matter of months at the most before the last bastion of a decades-long monetary policy experiment with negative short-term rates falls. An exit by the Bank of Japan is expected by June, with an even chance that rates will rise to zero next week.
Such a move, up 10 basis points, would be small, leaving traders to focus on broader signals: whether any change is implemented immediately, or later, and whether the BOJ winds down its enormous buying programme for assets ranging from Japanese government bonds to listed equity funds.
The symbolism is also heavy as Japan seeks to leave behind "lost" years marked by deflation and reawaken the fourth-biggest economy in the world as a destination for investment -- a change already rippling through corporate Japan and global markets.
"I personally think this is going to be the beginning of a new era," said Keita Matsumoto, head of financial institutions sales and solutions at Citigroup Global Markets Japan.
The symbolism is also heavy as Japan seeks to leave behind "lost" years marked by deflation and reawaken the fourth-biggest economy in the world as a destination for investment -- a change already rippling through corporate Japan and global markets.
"I personally think this is going to be the beginning of a new era," said Keita Matsumoto, head of financial institutions sales and solutions at Citigroup Global Markets Japan.
"It's a fundamental shift in peoples' mindset," he said, one that may take five or 10 years' adjustment as the economy changes.
Some of the biggest implications may be in Japan's 1.3 quadrillion yen ($8.7 trillion) government debt market.
Matsumoto said investors have positioned to benefit from selling of short-dated paper since a rise in central bank deposit rates would quickly draw banks' capital out of bonds and into cash.
Some of the biggest implications may be in Japan's 1.3 quadrillion yen ($8.7 trillion) government debt market.
Matsumoto said investors have positioned to benefit from selling of short-dated paper since a rise in central bank deposit rates would quickly draw banks' capital out of bonds and into cash.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/bus...20-trillion-carry-trade-deutsche-bank-3919416
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The logo of Deutsche Bank is seen in Brussels, Belgium, on Dec 6, 2022. (Photo: REUTERS/Yves Herman)
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14 Nov 2023 06:37PM (Updated: 14 Nov 2023 07:14PM)
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TOKYO: Japan's government is engaged in a massive US$20 trillion "carry trade" - the funding of loans and foreign assets by borrowing low-cost yen - that could bring unexpected risks if the central bank tightens policy, Deutsche Bank analysts warn.
Using research by the San Francisco Federal Reserve and International Monetary Fund, Deutsche's head of currency research George Saravelos analysed a consolidated balance sheet of the Japanese government including the government-run pension fund GPIF, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), and state-owned banks, showing the asset-liability mix of its US$20 trillion debt.
That debt, Deutsche Bank found, amounts to an enormous "trade" invested abroad at high interest rates and funded by low-rate, short-term borrowing in yen.
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Japan's government debt is a US$20 trillion 'carry trade': Deutsche Bank
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Business
Japan's government debt is a US$20 trillion 'carry trade': Deutsche Bank
The logo of Deutsche Bank is seen in Brussels, Belgium, on Dec 6, 2022. (Photo: REUTERS/Yves Herman)
Listen to this article
1 min
This audio is generated by an AI tool.
14 Nov 2023 06:37PM (Updated: 14 Nov 2023 07:14PM)
BookmarkShare
TOKYO: Japan's government is engaged in a massive US$20 trillion "carry trade" - the funding of loans and foreign assets by borrowing low-cost yen - that could bring unexpected risks if the central bank tightens policy, Deutsche Bank analysts warn.
Using research by the San Francisco Federal Reserve and International Monetary Fund, Deutsche's head of currency research George Saravelos analysed a consolidated balance sheet of the Japanese government including the government-run pension fund GPIF, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), and state-owned banks, showing the asset-liability mix of its US$20 trillion debt.
That debt, Deutsche Bank found, amounts to an enormous "trade" invested abroad at high interest rates and funded by low-rate, short-term borrowing in yen.
Good news must share mah
U know what to buy in 6-18mth horizon liao
Auntie Yellen told the senate that US interest rate will never go back to pre China virus era.
That is to say, kiss good bye to low interest rate
Now I want my 5% interest rate return from cee pee fff
That is to say, kiss good bye to low interest rate
Now I want my 5% interest rate return from cee pee fff
Don't know.U know what to buy in 6-18mth horizon liao
Can tell me.
They are contributing to our Great Nation Building...they are Hero and deserve our royal salute
Yellen says it seems unlikely that interest rates will return to pre-pandemic lows
Eamonn Sheridan
13/03/2024 | 20:04 GMT-0
US Treasury Secretary Yellen says it seems unlikely that Interest Rates will return to levels as low as before the Covid-19 pandemic
Like that...all central bankers hike together mah...u jump I jump...everybody Heng Ong Huat lahYellen says it seems unlikely that interest rates will return to pre-pandemic lows
Eamonn Sheridan
13/03/2024 | 20:04 GMT-0
US Treasury Secretary Yellen says it seems unlikely that Interest Rates will return to levels as low as before the Covid-19 pandemic
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