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The effectiveness of NSmen System

Goh Meng Seng

Alfrescian (InfP) [Comp]
Generous Asset
http://singaporealternatives.blogspot.com/2009/11/effectiveness-of-nsmen-system.html

I have just come back from 3 weeks of overseas reservist training in Australia, well known code named "Ex Wallaby".

Many people wonder why am I in reservist training when I am already 39? Well, I just have bad news for officers: all officers have to serve up to 50 year old, unlike NCOs and other ranks who will have their National Service "terminated" after 10 years of service (7 high key with 3 low key) or retired into MR (main reserve) once they reach 45 year old.

Yes, I was told that Officers are to serve up till 50 year old instead of the usual "7 high key 3 low key" as announced months ago. They have made a mistake in making that announcement without stating that officers will have to serve longer.

I don't mind serving my National Service (well, it would be great if there isn't any IPPT for old bones like me! :wink:) but it seems that something is not very right in terms of cost and benefits along with its effectiveness.

I met a "store man" who is actually a GM of a MNC based in Singapore. It is interesting to note that SAF is paying thousands of dollars (I guess his pay is at least $8K or above) just to get a "store man" to serve in the unit. Well, that is not all. Although SAF paid him thousands to become a store man, he could have contributed more as a GM to the economy for the 3 weeks. This opportunity cost of lost productivity is really difficult to be accounted for.

It is very difficult to expect reservist unit to achieve professional proficiency as a fighting force when they only train at most once a year. We do have very good helpful trainers to guide us along throughout these 3 weeks but how much of such experiences could be registered and pass down for future training? Especially so when the turn around time and disruption of personnel is pretty high in a reservist unit. Simple things like setting up tents and field craft have to be taught all over again for each and every in camp training, not to mention important skills and strategic concept of military planning for officers.

While we have various aide memoir, SOPs and trainers' guidance to depend on, it will really take time for officers and men to digest, master and execute properly. Besides, there are quite a lot of constrains during the exercise, from inadequate equipping, staffing to cancellation of some drills which really undermined our training objectives and purpose.

I am not saying that our unit is not performing well. In fact, our unit is performing pretty well in spite of the many constrains we faced during the whole 3 weeks. I have overheard NSF boys conversation commenting about how "on the ball" our reservist NSmen are which is way beyond their expectation. They thought NSmen are just demoralized old soldiers who could do much less in training but we proved them wrong. We have a good core of officers and NCOs to take the training seriously and making it as good as they could with various constrains. In some instances, we are more serious and on the ball than the NSF in training, poking them for many responses to make the exercise more real. However, having said that, we could not achieve higher proficiency as compared to any regular trained army although the cost of having us to train is very much higher.

Although I do not have the exact figures but I think the cost of getting NSmen to come back for training for whole year round would be tens of millions if not hundreds of millions or even billion. Would it not be more cost effective as well as more proficient to use these money to build a couple of divisions of regular, professional army instead?

Singapore has the highest defense expenditure, in terms of total amount as well as percentage of our GDP in this region. Such spending would have crowded out other expenditures like Healthcare, Education or even social welfare spending.

Defense budget is always regarded as "sacred" as the emphasis on defense is always portrayed as the utmost top priority for the Nation. The attitude of "no question ask" is eminent for the past decades even when it escalated throughout the years. Defense spending has long become the top item in our annual budget and intriguingly, nobody seems to be interested in questioning the rational behind the ballooning budget year after year.

Could we achieve more productive, proficiency and effective defense with less money? We could if we stop paying thousands of dollars for just a store man. The whole concept of NSmen system will have to be modified or even changed radically.

We could have maintained a professional army of 2 or even 3 Divisions with supplements from Voluntary corps and even paramilitary divisions via the 2 years National Service system. We could have trained enough drivers, technically skilled soldiers from the early days of 2 years NS. From the cohort, those who are willing to become part of the regular army will form the 2 Divisions of regular Guards while NS officers and NCOs could opt to become part of the Volunteer Corps that will train regularly with the professional army just like what we are doing right now as NSmen. This will close the loop of first tier reserves for the regular army and they could well become the leaders of the paramilitary force formed by the bulk of other ranks in time of war.

The paramilitary force could well be called up for refresher courses 3 (for combat troopers) or 5 years apart. This will minimize cost, be it real or opportunity costs to the Nation's economy in terms of productivity lost. It will also minimize unnecessary disruptions to Singaporeans' livelihood.

War does not occur suddenly in modern times. There will always be a build up time for war to occur, most probably 6 to 12 months lead time. If there is such urgency in the situation of eminent threat of war, paramilitary groups could be called up more advanced training schedule to equip them with refresher program and crush course on handling of new military equipment and such. Stretching over a period of 6 months would be sufficient enough for war preparations.

This three tier defense setup would have saved a lot of resources with certain level of assurance of proficiency in the first contact forces i.e. the 2 Divisions of regular professional army. These forces are back up by the Volunteer Corps which are capable to lead the paramilitary forces into war if necessary.

To maintain a highly proficient army based largely on conscripts is never easy. The problem will be expounded when this is done in a prolonged manner without real threat of war eminent. We are unlike Israel or Taiwan which face clear and present danger of war each other day. Even for Taiwan which is technically at war with PRC, it has cut down its conscription. The besiege mentality of Singapore must change to make ways for better utilization of resources.

There are many other ways to moderate our defense spending and I believe there may be people with more creative, effective and efficient plans to help us in this without compromising on our safety. What I am stating here is just my thoughts of changing our defense strategy and structure after attending 3 weeks of overseas training. It may not be a perfect plan but I hope it could get people start thinking about containing our defense spending, wastage of productivity and manpower etc.
 

scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
Thank god he is not the GM of the MNC.

War is a numbers and technology game. You can't get the numbers running a volunteer army. The fact that NS was reduced from 2.5 to 2 in view of the falling birth rate is telling. SAF acts as a deterrent force outnumbering the Malaysians by many fold.

The reason the GM storeman has to attend and we are willing to pay his salary for 3 weeks is to ensure that its an obligation that all people undertake. Unless he comes out with another solution such as paying the employer a storeman's vocation wage, its not going anywhere.

So far it is not a good article. One worries when an Officer who is 39 yrs of age and had undergo years of military training does not know the basis of NS, why a voluntary army won't do and the mechanics of singapore security situation. He also assumed that Singaporeans will join the army in numbers. Movinga way from a military vocation is a trend for the last 50 years all over the world except in the african nations where decent board and lodging is ahead of a country's national mean.

The issue at hand is budget given to the SAF and if it could be better used for nation building with a serious debate in parliament. For instance, even old man felt that submarines serve no strategic or tactical purpose and considered them toys.
 

Goh Meng Seng

Alfrescian (InfP) [Comp]
Generous Asset
Dear Scroobal,

I know it is damn difficult for people to stand back and take a second look at the assumptions or rather, the presumptions of National Security Threats that has been deeply rooted for past decades.

We are just too used to the argument that we are a Chinese based city state surrounded by Muslim countries and thus the threat of war or security risk is real and thus, National Service is a must ..etc etc.

Or that we are a small country and that is why we need everyone to be in the army etc etc.

If you think that there are nobody interested in joining the army, why would you presume that when the war comes, there would be anyone interested to go to the war front? Even so with a conscripted army?

War is fought not by merely numbers anymore. The US successful military campaign in Iraq has demonstrated that. But ironically, US military campaign also shows that War could not be won in the long term by simply beating enormous army by equipment superiority. No one should have the fantasy that we could ever win a war even if we beat our enemies with numbers and superior equipment. The war is merely a deterrence of further hardship. There is no way Singapore could conquer anyone even if it wins the initial battles. Wars are no longer fought in the conventional ways anymore. Iraq and Afghanistan have shown that clearly to us.

If we ever go to war, there are only two possibilities. It is for buying time to have a negotiated peace. Anyone that think we could win anything would be hallucinating at best. The second possibility is fighting an Asian super power that aimed to destroy our role as the logistic base for the American Navy. Could we win that war or even the initial battle? No sir.

The cost of maintaining this huge conscript army is hardly justifiable for such limited use. Put it this way, even for reservist training, the "drop out rate" is unimaginably high, so do you think you will get more than 50% of the people going to the battle front as conscripts when the button is pressed?

I am just being realistic in assessment. Most probably if my plan is adopted, the same number in Volunteer Corp would be the same number of people that would stay and fight when the button is pressed with the present system. People who are mindful, responsible and upright enough to join the Volunteer Corp are the ones who the Nation could really depend on during war time. There might be some others in the Paramilitary regiment that would stay on to fight depending on the nature of the war and whether we are standing on a moral high ground but with that, it is then a REAL gauge on how effective our National education is with regards to Patriotism.

If we cannot get enough people to form 2 Divisions of regular professional army, then we are not going to be successful in maintaining proficiency with the conscript army anyway. I believe, with the present strength we have in the army as regulars now, we could well have enough people to form up two divisions of fighting force.

Goh Meng Seng


Thank god he is not the GM of the MNC.

War is a numbers and technology game. You can't get the numbers running a volunteer army. The fact that NS was reduced from 2.5 to 2 in view of the falling birth rate is telling. SAF acts as a deterrent force outnumbering the Malaysians by many fold.

The reason the GM storeman has to attend and we are willing to pay his salary for 3 weeks is to ensure that its an obligation that all people undertake. Unless he comes out with another solution such as paying the employer a storeman's vocation wage, its not going anywhere.

So far it is not a good article. One worries when an Officer who is 39 yrs of age and had undergo years of military training does not know the basis of NS, why a voluntary army won't do and the mechanics of singapore security situation. He also assumed that Singaporeans will join the army in numbers. Movinga way from a military vocation is a trend for the last 50 years all over the world except in the african nations where decent board and lodging is ahead of a country's national mean.

The issue at hand is budget given to the SAF and if it could be better used for nation building with a serious debate in parliament. For instance, even old man felt that submarines serve no strategic or tactical purpose and considered them toys.
 

Goh Meng Seng

Alfrescian (InfP) [Comp]
Generous Asset
The Oppos' Battle Cry for the next GE should be 'Abolish NS! Citizens First!'

Dear Makapa,

Citizens First, yes, but I am not ready to go for total abolishment of NS yet.

A small country is difficult to amass big armies in a short frame of time to defend itself when there is war eminent. If you read my article carefully, I did not assert that we could abolish NS altogether. I am merely proposing a middle path solution to balance up the cost and benefits of maintain a huge conscript army during peace time.

I believe a basic military training of 1.5 yr to 2 yr in the foundation years is still a necessary. But what goes there after will have to be modified from the present system. That is what I am asking for.

Goh Meng Seng
 

krafty

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
i spoke to an inchit recently,he told me that nowadays new enlistees don't even know how to sweep a floor. As through my own experience, true that one learnt to take hardship during the 2.5 years but after working in the society for few years,will be back to square one.
 

johnny333

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
i true that one learnt to take hardship during the 2.5 years but after working in the society for few years,will be back to square one.

Looking at what the PAP has achieved. For majority of Sporeans Iis more like 40 years & it's back to square one :rolleyes:
 

scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
The aim was never to win a war. Even a short engagement and withdrawal by the enemy would devqasted this country that measures 44km by 24km. It will be preety dead.

As I clearly indicated in my post- it has always been deterrence, a massive deterrence where large numbers play a huge psychological role.

My comments relate to that poor article. I too have issues with NS and SAF but not what he wrote. Where is the money going. Colonels aged 34 drawing quarter of million dollars. The cars, various junkets, so many overseas bases etc. Wastage etc. Opportunity cost where the budget is concerned.

Reservist tenure has been pretty much reduced except for Officers which actually went up. I have no qualms spending 21 days in the field, when it does not affect my job and my holidays. Also a good time to catch up with some mates and chnage of scene.




Anyone that think we could win anything would be hallucinating at best. The second possibilitys fighting an Asian super power that aimed to destroy our role as the logistic base for the American Navy. Could we win that war or even the initial battle? No sir.
 

Goh Meng Seng

Alfrescian (InfP) [Comp]
Generous Asset
Dear Scroobal,

If deterrence is the only game plan, then we will lose all the way.

Take Indonesia for example. Its massive population is enough to pee Singapore into flood. :wink:

In terms of numbers, we will never meet the level of massive deterrence. A mere 3 million population is far too small for a country that have hundreds millions of population to be considered as "deterrence". They know a prolonged war is to their advantage if it ever happens. But our game plan is never about fighting on our own land. There is no depth to speak of.

Thus it comes back to the basic, a higher technology in military equipment which could help to gain success for the initial battle, then back to negotiation table and waiting for reinforcement from some other countries.

Goh Meng Seng




The aim was never to win a war. Even a short engagement and withdrawal by the enemy would devqasted this country that measures 44km by 24km. It will be preety dead.

As I clearly indicated in my post- it has always been deterrence, a massive deterrence where large numbers play a huge psychological role.

My comments relate to that poor article. I too have issues with NS and SAF but not what he wrote. Where is the money going. Colonels aged 34 drawing quarter of million dollars. The cars, various junkets, so many overseas bases etc. Wastage etc. Opportunity cost where the budget is concerned.

Reservist tenure has been pretty much reduced except for Officers which actually went up. I have no qualms spending 21 days in the field, when it does not affect my job and my holidays. Also a good time to catch up with some mates and chnage of scene.
 

Yoshitei

Alfrescian
Loyal
The NSmen of today are totally hopeless.

Have you seen that latest batch of CDOs? They look small to the point I hardly think they'll survive long under FBO in combat scenarios.

What's more, most of the younger generation of NSmen I met are afraid of one of the following: -

1) Their mothers / girlfriends
2) Robbers in MY
3) Blood / Spiders / Cockroaches etc.
4) Amusement Center Rides

How to fight?

If as a man, you're scare of knife wielding robbers while in MY, wouldn't you be more worried of gun totting soldiers in times of war?

Gone were the days where those in uniform were real men.
 
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scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
Believe me - its the only game. They can't tell singaporeans otherwise. The technology is to supplement the numbers and to give a massive bloody nose so everyone is cautious of even thinking of going to war.

We can't even survive a short engagement let alone a prolonged engagement.

If the deterrent effect is not effective or some crazy leader of Msia or Indonesia decides to go for it and war becomes imminent, the following will take place

1) Singapore leadership team will leave for Perth and it will operate as cabinet in exile.
2) The leaders will reach out to UN and its Allies.
3) Our primary military assets which are in oversea bases will move to nearby bases of its Allies
4) The govt of Singapore will liquidate its investment assets and agree to pay for the cost of the war by the allies. Our Air assets will join a coalition forces of some sort.

Remember the 1st Gulf War. The Kuwait Govt operated its cabinet from Egypt immediately after abandoning the country. Its liquidated its Sovereign fund to finance the war and guarantee payment. Japan paid for the bulk of the costs initially for foreign participating countriees except for the major powers. You cannot fight a war when your own country is small.

Except for Kuwait it did not have a deterrent force.

Now you know why our the bulk of our airforce, tanks, and many other assets are not in Singapore. We cannot fight a war by ourselves. We can deter a war or flee briefly and join a coalition force to retake the island.

Now you know why GCT and rest of the cabinet including the Lee clan have houses in Perth. Better get one.

We will be doing things like FIBUA when we come in to retake the island with the coalition forces. We are only ones trained to fight in high rises.



Dear Scroobal,

If deterrence is the only game plan, then we will lose all the way.

Take Indonesia for example. Its massive population is enough to pee Singapore into flood. :wink:

In terms of numbers, we will never meet the level of massive deterrence. A mere 3 million population is far too small for a country that have hundreds millions of population to be considered as "deterrence". They know a prolonged war is to their advantage if it ever happens. But our game plan is never about fighting on our own land. There is no depth to speak of.

Thus it comes back to the basic, a higher technology in military equipment which could help to gain success for the initial battle, then back to negotiation table and waiting for reinforcement from some other countries.

Goh Meng Seng
 

Yoshitei

Alfrescian
Loyal
We will be doing things like FIBUA when we come in to retake the island with the coalition forces. We are only ones trained to fight in high rises.

I'll turn the CBD into a parking lot.

That'll be good enough to ensure that both parties will suffer equally.

BTW, we're not the only ones to train on FIBUA, but we're the only ones to give it such fancy names to simple stuffs. (FOFO, FIBUA). Most of the world just call it CQC or CQB.
 

Tiu Kwang Yew

Alfrescian
Loyal
NSmen system is show show only.

But huge money gone becos of the show !

One man paranoid becomes the nation burden !

Yeah lah, must have Ns men but dont need to be so paraniod, just spend 1 to 2 billion enough, and cut short the reservist crap.

Now NS can be a tool to citizenship alredi !

Malaysia and Indo will always be friends if sinkapore treat them like one, but if one arrogant old fucker wants to play hero, sinkapore will never last out a war.

Malaysia and indo have the time and space and numbers to play with sinkapore.

if a war ever breaks , local sinkaporeans will surrender first ! This is a fact, who want to fight for the familee ?
Who want to fight for PAP millionaires?

NDP is a trick to con the investors to come top benefit the PAP baboons.

The whole NS men system is just a scarecrow ake to protect one familee when they are in sinkapore while they have homes somewhere else for exit plan.

No water, no food---local cowards who vote PAP will throw towels first.

seeing is believing, ask hsien loong to provoke a war and we will see the 10 billion SAF is just a fraud!!! No one will fight becos they love their HDB flats more than the country !!!
 

wizard

Alfrescian
Loyal
I used to accept that NS is part of life in spore as we dun have any one to rely on for protection.

Now, i felt cheated. When I have to go back for reservist while the FTs dun have to and enjoyed the same benifit in the company.

Who am I protecting from? I am just a cheap security guards for the FTs.

I have enough, now I go back and read story book, sleep and and whatsoever and waste my time and take it as a break from my work.

War time ... call FTs and Lee family fight lah.
 

kakowi

Alfrescian
Loyal
All these arguments are irrelevant if the only thing we are defending is the PAP system of government

The other issue is that the defence of Singapore is undertaken by the born-in-Singapore Singaporeans.

So how much more must born-in-Singapore Singaporeans sacrifice for the PAP vision?
 

kakowi

Alfrescian
Loyal
I used to accept that NS is part of life in spore as we dun have any one to rely on for protection.

Now, i felt cheated. When I have to go back for reservist while the FTs dun have to and enjoyed the same benifit in the company.

Who am I protecting from? I am just a cheap security guards for the FTs.

I have enough, now I go back and read story book, sleep and and whatsoever and waste my time and take it as a break from my work.

War time ... call FTs and Lee family fight lah.


I believe we are saying the same things, albeit in different words.
 

Goh Meng Seng

Alfrescian (InfP) [Comp]
Generous Asset
Dear Scroobal,

You have touched on a very sensitive aspect of our defense strategy here.

The main reason why PAP keeps stressing about keeping hundreds of billions of dollars in reserves is for the purpose that you have stated. You don't really need hundreds of billions of dollars to defend a currency of a small country. Neither do you need that amount of money for "emergency" during war time to buy food and resources; by then, the Straits of Malacca would have been blocked a siege would have been in effect. Even our combat ration require ingredients from neighbouring countries! Besides, $300 billions in reserves is equivalent to 2 years of Singapore's GDP!

Well, you have it right, it is money to pay others to fight back at our aggressors if we lost the war.

However, it doesn't mean that at this very moment, even with lesser number of soldiers, we could not fight and win any battles at all. We need to sustain our efforts for at least 2 weeks in order for reinforcement from US and other allies in UN to arrive. I believe that even with half of our present forces, we could achieve that objective. This is mainly due to efficiency provided by superior technology.

The plan that you have stated is the very last resort and option we would take. The military machinery we parked overseas are limited but it could be used for certain purposes, not only for the counter attack in the event of losing the war. They could be used to outflank enemy forces during the war as well.

Having said all these, the fundamental question is still unanswered. If the main battle is to be fought by UN and our allies, then why are we paying such a high price to maintain a huge conscript army?

Goh Meng Seng



Believe me - its the only game. They can't tell singaporeans otherwise. The technology is to supplement the numbers and to give a massive bloody nose so everyone is cautious of even thinking of going to war.

We can't even survive a short engagement let alone a prolonged engagement.

If the deterrent effect is not effective or some crazy leader of Msia or Indonesia decides to go for it and war becomes imminent, the following will take place

1) Singapore leadership team will leave for Perth and it will operate as cabinet in exile.
2) The leaders will reach out to UN and its Allies.
3) Our primary military assets which are in oversea bases will move to nearby bases of its Allies
4) The govt of Singapore will liquidate its investment assets and agree to pay for the cost of the war by the allies. Our Air assets will join a coalition forces of some sort.

Remember the 1st Gulf War. The Kuwait Govt operated its cabinet from Egypt immediately after abandoning the country. Its liquidated its Sovereign fund to finance the war and guarantee payment. Japan paid for the bulk of the costs initially for foreign participating countriees except for the major powers. You cannot fight a war when your own country is small.

Except for Kuwait it did not have a deterrent force.

Now you know why our the bulk of our airforce, tanks, and many other assets are not in Singapore. We cannot fight a war by ourselves. We can deter a war or flee briefly and join a coalition force to retake the island.

Now you know why GCT and rest of the cabinet including the Lee clan have houses in Perth. Better get one.

We will be doing things like FIBUA when we come in to retake the island with the coalition forces. We are only ones trained to fight in high rises.
 

dysentry

Alfrescian
Loyal
I'm fine with 2 weeks ICT every year, but IPPT should be abolished. Most of my pink IC colleagues are either going for RT or IPT, haemorrhaging their annual leave in the process, and being laughed at by PR colleagues, while I don't see them getting fitter or taking up sports. I struggle to pass every year at SAFRA, and the SGH specialist merely took 10 secs to look at my X-ray and declared my knee problem-free, then excused me with some glucosamine.
 

dysentry

Alfrescian
Loyal
china-military-recruitment-poster-06-560x448.jpg


singapore-military-recruitment-poster.jpg
 

Yoshitei

Alfrescian
Loyal
The plan that you have stated is the very last resort and option we would take. The military machinery we parked overseas are limited but it could be used for certain purposes, not only for the counter attack in the event of losing the war. They could be used to outflank enemy forces during the war as well.

No sovereign nation will allow Singapore to launch an attack or countera ttack from their territory. Would Singapore allow US to launch an attack on China from our bases?

And quite frankly, do you really think that if Malaysia or Indonesia attacks Singapore, the US, UK and Australia will send military aid?

The answer is NO.

They will be involved in evacuating their own citizens and perhaps protecting their local interests, but not this country or its citizens. They may 'encourage' both parties to have have talks and that's about it, perhaps enforce various embargoes to force both parties to a table.

By then, possibly half of Singapore would be reduced to rubble. If I were Malaysia or Indonesia, do you think I would leave your CBD intact after the war? Do you think if the US, UK and Australia step in, I would not ask the Russians for help? Why do you think I invested in Russian equipment?

Do you think if the Russians put pressure, the US, UK and Australia would dare to send military assistant? Humanitarian assistant maybe but that would be after Malaysia and Indonesia clears them. Nobody wants to send relief workers into a kill zone to get motared.
 
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