The tension in the Korean Peninsular is a Gunboat diplomacy of sorts. North Korea,South Korea and the US are all players of this gunboat diplomacy. The arrival of the US carrier Washington for a massive naval exercise with South Korean Navy is a political exercise to show North Korea that the US stands by South Korea, to show US military supremancy and indirectly to show China, US displeasure for Beijing's continuous strong support for North Korea.
One thing for sure is that the US carrier and the planned naval exercises will etched up the tension in the Korean peninsular by several notches. After President Lee Myung-Bak becomes the president, he abandoned many of the the previous Presidents' Sunshine Policies and initiated a very hardline stance against the North which included even closer military ties with the US (which included conducting numerous and massive war games in the disputed seas with North Korea). President Lee also suggest the resumption of placing giant loudspeakers at their borders to broadcast anti-North Korean messages which the North threatened to shoot. He also allowed Christian activities to fly balloons filled with anti-Kim Jong-ill pamplets and other articles criticising the North's government and shortwave radios to the North. The North was enraged as it sees these actions as one that is directly threatening its political survival (regime change)and issued threats of military retailiations and cut off communications for the little channels still left behind.
However, it was the massive war games that rally give rise to these tensions. It was on the night of the largest anti-submarine exercise between the SKorea and US Navy (Code name Foal Eagle) that the Cheonan(one of the participant warship in the exercise) sank..South Korea together with the US and western nations concluded it was a North Korean torpedo which sank the ship. North Korea objected very angrily. China and the Russians also objected to Seoul's allegations.
It was in this Cheonan Incident that characterised the start of a never-ending rise of tension in the region. As a response to this sinking which Seoul believed the North did, President Lee ordered more series of massive naval exercises with the US very close to the North Korea sea border in a show of force. The US also intended to hold massive naval exercises in the Yellow Seas together with the South with its nuclear carriers,new missiles and warplanes in additional to warships and submarines. It was only until China's shrill objections that the exercises involving its aircraft carriers were moved to another locations but the naval exercises continues. China responded with long-range missiles on its own in the coastal regions facing the US-South Korean exercises. This tit-for tat military exercises further escalated tensions in the region.
Like the Cheonan Incident, it was in the midst of a massive South Korean naval exercises held next to the disputed sea borders with North Korea that North Korea fired its artillery at the south island of Yeongpyeong in the the afternoon of 23th November 2010. sThe South Korea military confirmed that the North has given warnings several times against the exercises and concluded the artillery attacks were in response to this exercises. It was the first time in 60 years after the Korean war that the North have attacked a South Korean territories with military and civilian casualties.
This attack by the North alarmed the international community. Many western commentators who previously dismissed Pyongyang rhetoric of war as empty threats were stunned by the North's ferocious attacks. But the most surprise came from the South military who was unprepared and have no idea of the North's extreme reactions. As a result, the South Korean Minister of Defence resigned. Immediately after this attacks, the US and South Korea confirmed another massive naval exercises in the coming weeks amid a stern warning from Pyongyang that this will bring the region to the "brink of war'.China also voiced stern opposition to the planned US-South Korean naval exercises.
As such, the war drums continued to beat in the coming weeks and months as all sides uses military force to consolidate their points. The pending arrival of the US carrier group was met by live artillery exercises by the North two days after the incident. Furthermore, China will probably responded to this US show of might by carrying out its own massive naval exercises. Far from ignoring the North as many suggested, the Chinese seems to see things in a different light. China seems determined to stand by North Korea as she sees the US threatening her own national political and economic security.This was made worse by the US support of Japan in the recent Senkaku/Diaoyutai islands, US support to Vietnam & India and her opposition to Chinese claims in the South China seas and looming currency wars between the two powers. Beijing sees the rise of tensions in the Korean peninsular not entirely the fault of North Korea alone but also the actions of the US and South Korea as well.
Thus, the world community must rethink its policy on North Korea URGENTLY. The US should look for a able strategist that could offer her new solutions that sees beyong the standard textbook political theories as far as North Korea is concerned. The US have run out of options. For North Korea, it is not just simple a "communist madman" as western political commentators like to protray. North Korea's behavior have to do with many reasons and angles that include the Confucianist (intermixed with its own communistic culture, its ethnic and nationalist pride and her own survival as a nation. The use of Gunboat diplomacy by all parties will only aggravate the tense situation and the possibility of a war breaking is not as remote as previously thought.
One thing for sure is that the US carrier and the planned naval exercises will etched up the tension in the Korean peninsular by several notches. After President Lee Myung-Bak becomes the president, he abandoned many of the the previous Presidents' Sunshine Policies and initiated a very hardline stance against the North which included even closer military ties with the US (which included conducting numerous and massive war games in the disputed seas with North Korea). President Lee also suggest the resumption of placing giant loudspeakers at their borders to broadcast anti-North Korean messages which the North threatened to shoot. He also allowed Christian activities to fly balloons filled with anti-Kim Jong-ill pamplets and other articles criticising the North's government and shortwave radios to the North. The North was enraged as it sees these actions as one that is directly threatening its political survival (regime change)and issued threats of military retailiations and cut off communications for the little channels still left behind.
However, it was the massive war games that rally give rise to these tensions. It was on the night of the largest anti-submarine exercise between the SKorea and US Navy (Code name Foal Eagle) that the Cheonan(one of the participant warship in the exercise) sank..South Korea together with the US and western nations concluded it was a North Korean torpedo which sank the ship. North Korea objected very angrily. China and the Russians also objected to Seoul's allegations.
It was in this Cheonan Incident that characterised the start of a never-ending rise of tension in the region. As a response to this sinking which Seoul believed the North did, President Lee ordered more series of massive naval exercises with the US very close to the North Korea sea border in a show of force. The US also intended to hold massive naval exercises in the Yellow Seas together with the South with its nuclear carriers,new missiles and warplanes in additional to warships and submarines. It was only until China's shrill objections that the exercises involving its aircraft carriers were moved to another locations but the naval exercises continues. China responded with long-range missiles on its own in the coastal regions facing the US-South Korean exercises. This tit-for tat military exercises further escalated tensions in the region.
Like the Cheonan Incident, it was in the midst of a massive South Korean naval exercises held next to the disputed sea borders with North Korea that North Korea fired its artillery at the south island of Yeongpyeong in the the afternoon of 23th November 2010. sThe South Korea military confirmed that the North has given warnings several times against the exercises and concluded the artillery attacks were in response to this exercises. It was the first time in 60 years after the Korean war that the North have attacked a South Korean territories with military and civilian casualties.
This attack by the North alarmed the international community. Many western commentators who previously dismissed Pyongyang rhetoric of war as empty threats were stunned by the North's ferocious attacks. But the most surprise came from the South military who was unprepared and have no idea of the North's extreme reactions. As a result, the South Korean Minister of Defence resigned. Immediately after this attacks, the US and South Korea confirmed another massive naval exercises in the coming weeks amid a stern warning from Pyongyang that this will bring the region to the "brink of war'.China also voiced stern opposition to the planned US-South Korean naval exercises.
As such, the war drums continued to beat in the coming weeks and months as all sides uses military force to consolidate their points. The pending arrival of the US carrier group was met by live artillery exercises by the North two days after the incident. Furthermore, China will probably responded to this US show of might by carrying out its own massive naval exercises. Far from ignoring the North as many suggested, the Chinese seems to see things in a different light. China seems determined to stand by North Korea as she sees the US threatening her own national political and economic security.This was made worse by the US support of Japan in the recent Senkaku/Diaoyutai islands, US support to Vietnam & India and her opposition to Chinese claims in the South China seas and looming currency wars between the two powers. Beijing sees the rise of tensions in the Korean peninsular not entirely the fault of North Korea alone but also the actions of the US and South Korea as well.
Thus, the world community must rethink its policy on North Korea URGENTLY. The US should look for a able strategist that could offer her new solutions that sees beyong the standard textbook political theories as far as North Korea is concerned. The US have run out of options. For North Korea, it is not just simple a "communist madman" as western political commentators like to protray. North Korea's behavior have to do with many reasons and angles that include the Confucianist (intermixed with its own communistic culture, its ethnic and nationalist pride and her own survival as a nation. The use of Gunboat diplomacy by all parties will only aggravate the tense situation and the possibility of a war breaking is not as remote as previously thought.
