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SPACEWEATHER: A major solar flare approaching the X5 level is currently in progress
- Thread starter Byebye Penis
- Start date
This is for globetards’ understanding
Aurora australis displays still possible but less likely as geomagnetic storm level falls
Posted 6h ago
6 hours ago
Duration: 5 minutes 25 seconds
5m
Dr Karl explains the physics behind the aurora australis that occurred over the weekend.
After this weekend's epic aurora australis display, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) says there is still a geomagnetic storm underway that may produce visible southern lights in parts of Australia.
But the chances of seeing the lights are much lower now, with the level of storm activity falling.
Here's the latest:
Will I still see the aurora australis?
Monash University associate professor in astronomy Michael Brown says the southern lights might appear again in the coming days.
"But I would be pleasantly surprised if they match Saturday’s performance," he said.
"How bright auroras are and when they arrive is quite hard to nail down."
The NOM has forecast lower-level global geomagnetic activity until 6pm AEST on Tuesday, May 14.
A BOM spokesperson said at this stage, we were at the end of this remarkable global geomagnetic storm.
"While there is still a chance of some aurora activity in Tasmania and southern coastline Victoria tonight, we're not expecting anything as intense as we saw over the weekend," the spokesperson said.
What is the G-scale?
Auroras are the result of geomagnetic storms. These storms occur when large "clouds" containing billions of tonnes of plasma embedded within an ejected magnetic field erupt from the Sun's outer atmosphere, or corona — phenomena known as coronal mass ejections (CME).
CMEs then head towards the Earth where they hit the planet's outer magnetic field and create blue lights at high altitudes and red lights at lower altitudes.
The size of these geomagnetic storms is measured in what is known as a G-scale.
According to BOM, the G-scale ranges from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme).
The current planetary geomagnetic conditions are at the G3 — strong level. However, within Australia they are currently lower at G1 – minor level.
When will there be another geomagnetic storm?
The geomagnetic storm that occurred on Saturday night was rated as G5. It reached that level at 9:45am AEST on May 11.
The last time Earth had a G5-level geomagnetic storm was in 2003.
ABC Science commentator Karl Kruszelnicki told ABC News Breakfast auroras could be predicted by looking at earthquakes on the Sun — an area of study known as helioseismology.
Deni Cupit took this picture in Kingston Beach. (Instagram: deni_cupit)
"The Sun rotates once every 27 days or 30 days, depending on if you go by the equator or the [north and south] pole," he said.
"What happens is the Sun rotates and there's a hotspot on the surface and it comes around and throws something at it.
"We can get warning of that by looking at vibrations on the surface."
By analysing the vibration waves across the Sun, he added, scientists could tell there if something on the other side which had a small chance of being thrown at Earth as the Sun rotated.
The other way to predict auroras, Dr Karl said, was the 11-year Sun cycle, which is currently headed towards its peak.
"So if we’re lucky, we will get more [auroras]," he said.
"But on the other hand, we do not want our electronic toys like our watches and our computers and our GPS to drop dead on us."
Can I see some more pictures?
Absolutely!
Here are some of the spectacular shots members of the audience sent to the ABC Australia Instagram page.
Gill Dayton took this image on the Huon River. (Instagram: tassieapplespice)
Photographer Riccardo snapped this at Mornington Peninsula.(Instagram: imagesbyriccardo)
Ari Pugh spent five hours travelling from Port Campbell and back to Mt Noorat to take this image. (Instagram: aripughphotography)
Christian Spencer captured a bright red sky over the Murray River. (Instagram: christianspencerphoto)
Posted 6h ago
6 hours ago
Duration: 5 minutes 25 seconds
5m
Dr Karl explains the physics behind the aurora australis that occurred over the weekend.
After this weekend's epic aurora australis display, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) says there is still a geomagnetic storm underway that may produce visible southern lights in parts of Australia.
But the chances of seeing the lights are much lower now, with the level of storm activity falling.
Here's the latest:
Will I still see the aurora australis?
Monash University associate professor in astronomy Michael Brown says the southern lights might appear again in the coming days.
"But I would be pleasantly surprised if they match Saturday’s performance," he said.
"How bright auroras are and when they arrive is quite hard to nail down."
The NOM has forecast lower-level global geomagnetic activity until 6pm AEST on Tuesday, May 14.
A BOM spokesperson said at this stage, we were at the end of this remarkable global geomagnetic storm.
"While there is still a chance of some aurora activity in Tasmania and southern coastline Victoria tonight, we're not expecting anything as intense as we saw over the weekend," the spokesperson said.
What is the G-scale?
Auroras are the result of geomagnetic storms. These storms occur when large "clouds" containing billions of tonnes of plasma embedded within an ejected magnetic field erupt from the Sun's outer atmosphere, or corona — phenomena known as coronal mass ejections (CME).
CMEs then head towards the Earth where they hit the planet's outer magnetic field and create blue lights at high altitudes and red lights at lower altitudes.
The size of these geomagnetic storms is measured in what is known as a G-scale.
According to BOM, the G-scale ranges from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme).
The current planetary geomagnetic conditions are at the G3 — strong level. However, within Australia they are currently lower at G1 – minor level.
When will there be another geomagnetic storm?
The geomagnetic storm that occurred on Saturday night was rated as G5. It reached that level at 9:45am AEST on May 11.
The last time Earth had a G5-level geomagnetic storm was in 2003.
ABC Science commentator Karl Kruszelnicki told ABC News Breakfast auroras could be predicted by looking at earthquakes on the Sun — an area of study known as helioseismology.
Deni Cupit took this picture in Kingston Beach. (Instagram: deni_cupit)
"The Sun rotates once every 27 days or 30 days, depending on if you go by the equator or the [north and south] pole," he said.
"What happens is the Sun rotates and there's a hotspot on the surface and it comes around and throws something at it.
"We can get warning of that by looking at vibrations on the surface."
By analysing the vibration waves across the Sun, he added, scientists could tell there if something on the other side which had a small chance of being thrown at Earth as the Sun rotated.
The other way to predict auroras, Dr Karl said, was the 11-year Sun cycle, which is currently headed towards its peak.
"So if we’re lucky, we will get more [auroras]," he said.
"But on the other hand, we do not want our electronic toys like our watches and our computers and our GPS to drop dead on us."
Can I see some more pictures?
Absolutely!
Here are some of the spectacular shots members of the audience sent to the ABC Australia Instagram page.
Gill Dayton took this image on the Huon River. (Instagram: tassieapplespice)
Photographer Riccardo snapped this at Mornington Peninsula.(Instagram: imagesbyriccardo)
Ari Pugh spent five hours travelling from Port Campbell and back to Mt Noorat to take this image. (Instagram: aripughphotography)
Christian Spencer captured a bright red sky over the Murray River. (Instagram: christianspencerphoto)
So many dumbfarks lacking of critical thinking skill.
https://forums.fuckwarezone.com.sg/threads/poll-did-usa-fake-moon-landing.7028240/page-10
No wonder even if Hollywood slap the truth on these fucking sheeple, they will still deny the fraud and insisted that they were real. They are really the NPC aka BOTS in real life
https://forums.fuckwarezone.com.sg/threads/poll-did-usa-fake-moon-landing.7028240/page-10
No wonder even if Hollywood slap the truth on these fucking sheeple, they will still deny the fraud and insisted that they were real. They are really the NPC aka BOTS in real life
In 2003,
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA514972.pdf
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/great-halloween-solar-storm-2003
https://phys.org/news/2023-11-haarp-artificial-airglow-widely-visible.amp
https://info.publicintelligence.net/haarpelfinjection.pdf
Sun and moon are celestial objects or plasma. They don’t rotate. What an absolute fake news written for sheeple
Last edited:
2015 globe with wording sex. Lol
Globetards can’t even smell a shit with it
Somemore it is a CGI
Globetards are just human animals as per what the Jews always said
Last edited:
What causes the different colours of the aurora? An expert explains the electric rainbow
The night sky with magenta and red shades up high and bright green lower at the horizon.
AP Photo/Kyle Green
Last week, a huge solar flare sent a wave of energetic particles from the Sun surging out through space. Over the weekend, the wave reached Earth, and people around the world enjoyed the sight of unusually vivid aurora in both hemispheres.
While the aurora is normally only visible close to the poles, this weekend it was spotted as far south as Hawaii in the northern hemisphere, and as far north as Mackay in the south.
This spectacular spike in auroral activity appears to have ended, but don’t worry if you missed out. The Sun is approaching the peak of its 11-year sunspot cycle, and periods of intense aurora are likely to return over the next year or so.
If you saw the aurora, or any of the photos, you might be wondering what exactly was going on. What makes the glow, and the different colours? The answer is all about atoms, how they get excited – and how they relax.
When electrons meet the atmosphere
The auroras are caused by charged subatomic particles (mostly electrons) smashing into Earth’s atmosphere. These are emitted from the Sun all the time, but there are more during times of greater solar activity.
Most of our atmosphere is protected from the influx of charged particles by Earth’s magnetic field. But near the poles, they can sneak in and wreak havoc.
Earth’s atmosphere is about 20% oxygen and 80% nitrogen, with some trace amounts of other things like water, carbon dioxide (0.04%) and argon.
A person standing on a dark road at night looking up at a bright pink-red sky.
The May 2024 aurora was visible in the Emilia-Romagna region of northern Italy as well.Luca Argalia/Flickr, CC BY-NC-SA
When high-speed electrons smash into oxygen molecules in the upper atmosphere, they split the oxygen molecules (O₂) into individual atoms. Ultraviolet light from the Sun does this too, and the oxygen atoms generated can react with O₂ molecules to produce ozone (O₃), the molecule that protects us from harmful UV radiation.
But, in the case of the aurora, the oxygen atoms generated are in an excited state. This means the atoms’ electrons are arranged in an unstable way that can “relax” by giving off energy in the form of light.
What makes the green light?
As you see in fireworks, atoms of different elements produce different colours of light when they are energised.
Copper atoms give a blue light, barium is green, and sodium atoms produce a yellow–orange colour that you may also have seen in older street lamps. These emissions are “allowed” by the rules of quantum mechanics, which means they happen very quickly.
When a sodium atom is in an excited state it only stays there for around 17 billionths of a second before firing out a yellow–orange photon.
But, in the aurora, many of the oxygen atoms are created in excited states with no “allowed” ways to relax by emitting light. Nevertheless, nature finds a way.
A mottled night sky with bright green lights and pink streaks above them.
Aurora australis visible from Oatlands, Tasmania on May 11 2024. AAP Image/Ethan James
The green light that dominates the aurora is emitted by oxygen atoms relaxing from a state called “¹S” to a state called “¹D”. This is a relatively slow process, which on average takes almost a whole second.
In fact, this transition is so slow it won’t usually happen at the kind of air pressure we see at ground level, because the excited atom will have lost energy by bumping into another atom before it has a chance to send out a lovely green photon. But in the atmosphere’s upper reaches, where there is lower air pressure and therefore fewer oxygen molecules, they have more time before bumping into one another and therefore have a chance to release a photon.
For this reason, it took scientists a long time to figure out that the green light of the aurora was coming from oxygen atoms. The yellow–orange glow of sodium was known in the 1860s, but it wasn’t until the 1920s that Canadian scientists figured out the auroral green was due to oxygen.
What makes the red light?
The green light comes from a so-called “forbidden” transition, which happens when an electron in the oxygen atom executes an unlikely leap from one orbital pattern to another. (Forbidden transitions are much less probable than allowed ones, which means they take longer to occur.)
However, even after emitting that green photon, the oxygen atom finds itself in yet another excited state with no allowed relaxation. The only escape is via another forbidden transition, from the ¹D to the ³P state – which emits red light.
This transition is even more forbidden, so to speak, and the ¹D state has to survive for about about two minutes before it can finally break the rules and give off red light. Because it takes so long, the red light only appears at high altitudes, where the collisions with other atoms and molecules are scarce.
Also, because there is such a small amount of oxygen up there, the red light tends to appear only in intense auroras – like the ones we have just had.
This is why the red light appears above the green. While they both originate in forbidden relaxations of oxygen atoms, the red light is emitted much more slowly and has a higher chance of being extinguished by collisions with other atoms at lower altitudes.
Other colours, and why cameras see them better
While green is the most common colour to see in the aurora, and red the second most common, there are also other colours. In particular, ionised nitrogen molecules (N₂⁺, which are missing one electron and have a positive electrical charge), can emit blue and red light. This can produce a magenta hue at low altitudes.
All these colours are visible to the naked eye if the aurora is bright enough. However, they show up with more intensity in the camera lens.
There are two reasons for this. First, cameras have the benefit of a long exposure, which means they can spend more time collecting light to produce an image than our eyes can. As a result, they can make a picture in dimmer conditions.
The second is that the colour sensors in our eyes don’t work very well in the dark – so we tend to see in black and white in low light conditions. Cameras don’t have this limitation.
Not to worry, though. When the aurora is bright enough, the colours are clearly visible to the naked eye.
The night sky with magenta and red shades up high and bright green lower at the horizon.
AP Photo/Kyle Green
Last week, a huge solar flare sent a wave of energetic particles from the Sun surging out through space. Over the weekend, the wave reached Earth, and people around the world enjoyed the sight of unusually vivid aurora in both hemispheres.
While the aurora is normally only visible close to the poles, this weekend it was spotted as far south as Hawaii in the northern hemisphere, and as far north as Mackay in the south.
This spectacular spike in auroral activity appears to have ended, but don’t worry if you missed out. The Sun is approaching the peak of its 11-year sunspot cycle, and periods of intense aurora are likely to return over the next year or so.
If you saw the aurora, or any of the photos, you might be wondering what exactly was going on. What makes the glow, and the different colours? The answer is all about atoms, how they get excited – and how they relax.
When electrons meet the atmosphere
The auroras are caused by charged subatomic particles (mostly electrons) smashing into Earth’s atmosphere. These are emitted from the Sun all the time, but there are more during times of greater solar activity.
Most of our atmosphere is protected from the influx of charged particles by Earth’s magnetic field. But near the poles, they can sneak in and wreak havoc.
Earth’s atmosphere is about 20% oxygen and 80% nitrogen, with some trace amounts of other things like water, carbon dioxide (0.04%) and argon.
A person standing on a dark road at night looking up at a bright pink-red sky.
The May 2024 aurora was visible in the Emilia-Romagna region of northern Italy as well.Luca Argalia/Flickr, CC BY-NC-SA
When high-speed electrons smash into oxygen molecules in the upper atmosphere, they split the oxygen molecules (O₂) into individual atoms. Ultraviolet light from the Sun does this too, and the oxygen atoms generated can react with O₂ molecules to produce ozone (O₃), the molecule that protects us from harmful UV radiation.
But, in the case of the aurora, the oxygen atoms generated are in an excited state. This means the atoms’ electrons are arranged in an unstable way that can “relax” by giving off energy in the form of light.
What makes the green light?
As you see in fireworks, atoms of different elements produce different colours of light when they are energised.
Copper atoms give a blue light, barium is green, and sodium atoms produce a yellow–orange colour that you may also have seen in older street lamps. These emissions are “allowed” by the rules of quantum mechanics, which means they happen very quickly.
When a sodium atom is in an excited state it only stays there for around 17 billionths of a second before firing out a yellow–orange photon.
But, in the aurora, many of the oxygen atoms are created in excited states with no “allowed” ways to relax by emitting light. Nevertheless, nature finds a way.
A mottled night sky with bright green lights and pink streaks above them.
Aurora australis visible from Oatlands, Tasmania on May 11 2024. AAP Image/Ethan James
The green light that dominates the aurora is emitted by oxygen atoms relaxing from a state called “¹S” to a state called “¹D”. This is a relatively slow process, which on average takes almost a whole second.
In fact, this transition is so slow it won’t usually happen at the kind of air pressure we see at ground level, because the excited atom will have lost energy by bumping into another atom before it has a chance to send out a lovely green photon. But in the atmosphere’s upper reaches, where there is lower air pressure and therefore fewer oxygen molecules, they have more time before bumping into one another and therefore have a chance to release a photon.
For this reason, it took scientists a long time to figure out that the green light of the aurora was coming from oxygen atoms. The yellow–orange glow of sodium was known in the 1860s, but it wasn’t until the 1920s that Canadian scientists figured out the auroral green was due to oxygen.
What makes the red light?
The green light comes from a so-called “forbidden” transition, which happens when an electron in the oxygen atom executes an unlikely leap from one orbital pattern to another. (Forbidden transitions are much less probable than allowed ones, which means they take longer to occur.)
However, even after emitting that green photon, the oxygen atom finds itself in yet another excited state with no allowed relaxation. The only escape is via another forbidden transition, from the ¹D to the ³P state – which emits red light.
This transition is even more forbidden, so to speak, and the ¹D state has to survive for about about two minutes before it can finally break the rules and give off red light. Because it takes so long, the red light only appears at high altitudes, where the collisions with other atoms and molecules are scarce.
Also, because there is such a small amount of oxygen up there, the red light tends to appear only in intense auroras – like the ones we have just had.
This is why the red light appears above the green. While they both originate in forbidden relaxations of oxygen atoms, the red light is emitted much more slowly and has a higher chance of being extinguished by collisions with other atoms at lower altitudes.
Other colours, and why cameras see them better
While green is the most common colour to see in the aurora, and red the second most common, there are also other colours. In particular, ionised nitrogen molecules (N₂⁺, which are missing one electron and have a positive electrical charge), can emit blue and red light. This can produce a magenta hue at low altitudes.
All these colours are visible to the naked eye if the aurora is bright enough. However, they show up with more intensity in the camera lens.
There are two reasons for this. First, cameras have the benefit of a long exposure, which means they can spend more time collecting light to produce an image than our eyes can. As a result, they can make a picture in dimmer conditions.
The second is that the colour sensors in our eyes don’t work very well in the dark – so we tend to see in black and white in low light conditions. Cameras don’t have this limitation.
Not to worry, though. When the aurora is bright enough, the colours are clearly visible to the naked eye.
NOAA forecasters say that the storm is really over now. There's no chance of additional G5-storm activity this week because all the big CMEs have already come and gone.
U take lah...then we take
Where are the little stars in night sky?
Tiagong, aeroplane is not "actually" flying, it is floating in the air like a Persian magic carpet, it is the Earth Rotation that bring the aeroplane to the destination while aeroplane is floating like a balloon de woh.....
Than like tat... Everyone can fly
It’s for globetards only. Globetards trust the “science”
We, flat-earthers are science failures according to government and mainstream media. Therefore, none of us took
https://www.courier-journal.com/sto...thers-hurting-covid-vaccine-rates/5797328001/
Last edited:
We are Hollow Earth Too...Bro
Will we see more intense auroras this year? The science of solar storms explained
Posted 10h ago
10 hours ago
Red and yellow lights glowing above land with a plane wing in view
Australians may see more dazzling solar storms in the upcoming months.(Supplied: Royal Flying Doctor Service/Eddie Fargher)
On the weekend, parts of Australia witnessed an auroral display not seen for more than 20 years.
If you had good weather, skies of pinks and greens could be seen as far north as Uluru and Mackay.
While the colours fade, it's worth dissecting what happened and what led up to this incredible display.
And as we reach the "solar maximum", or peak of solar activity over the next few months, can we expect more of the same?
How a sunspot can cause the aurora
Behind every stunning sky show is a sunspot — although not all sunspots lead to auroras.
Sunspots — cooler, dark patches on the Sun that have unusually high magnetic fields — are a regular solar occurrence.
In one month, there can be anywhere from a dozen to a few hundred sunspots.
But on May 9, a sunspot caught the attention of solar researchers.
NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured these images of the solar flares on May 8, 2024 (left) and May 9, 2024 (right). (Supplied: NASA/SDO)
And according to Brett Carter, a researcher in space physics and space weather at the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT), this one was huge.
"[The sunspot] rose up out of nothing over the course of last week," Dr Carter said.
"It was strong, it was very complex, and it was very loud."
The sunspot, which is called AR3664, was 15 times the diameter of Earth, and rivalled the dimensions of an 1859 sunspot which led to the most extreme solar storm ever documented.
Known as the Carrington event, that storm not only created stunning auroras, it played havoc with fledgling telegraph systems, sparking fires around the world.
The sunspot AR3664 (in red) compared with a drawing of the damaging 1859 sunspot (in blue).(Supplied: SDO/HMI)
Auroras are visible evidence of a sudden burst of charged particles from the Sun hitting Earth's atmosphere.
A sunspot in itself doesn't guarantee widespread aurora. For that to happen, the sunspot needs to release a solar flare and a coronal mass ejection or CME.
"Coronal mass ejections are associated with flares," said Michael Wheatland, a solar astrophysicist at the University of Sydney.
"A flare is just an intense, sudden release of energy and intense brightening [...] and a CME is when the magnetic field itself becomes unstable and leaves the Sun.
"You get this expulsion of both the magnetic field and the plasma from the Sun."
NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured images of the two solar flares on May 10 and May 11, 2024. (Supplied: NASA/SDO)
In last weekend's case, the sunspot AR3664 was facing Earth, and released multiple CMEs over a few days.
These CMEs, or intense solar winds, travel at different speeds, and when they "catch up" to one another they bunch up — like dirt in front of a bulldozer — and become stronger.
The CMEs created an extreme G5 storm on May 11, an intensity not seen since 2003.
An aurora occurs when the sun's particles make their way through the Earth's magnetic field. (ABC News)
The final ingredient for producing an aurora has to do with how the Earth's magnetic field interacts with this solar wind when it hits us.
"It's determined by what the orientation of the magnetic field is in the solar wind," Dr Carter said.
"If the orientation of the magnetic field in the solar wind is weaker — we say northward — Earth's magnetic field acts as an effective shield. But with the storm that we just had, it was not only southward, but it was hard southward."
This disturbance to Earth's magnetic field and upper atmosphere then produces the dazzling displays.
Loading video
YOUTUBEThe tech-breaking space storms that cause auroras
What's the solar maximum?
While last weekend's pink and green aurora was an obvious sign something is going on with the Sun at the moment, sunspots have actually been increasing steadily over the past few years.
We're now getting close to the "solar maximum", which is when we hit a peak of sunspots on the Sun's surface.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center has predicted the solar maximum may peak between January and October this year.
After the peak, the number of sunspots will start to wane.
This is all part of the solar cycle, which lasts around 11 years. Currently, we're in solar cycle 25, so named because sunspots have been tracked all the way back to 1750.
The reason for this increase in sunspots is because the Sun is going through some important growth of it's own — around solar maximum its magnetic poles reverse.
This is not an issue for Earth, apart from the extra sunspots produced. But scientists can't actually tell when we've hit solar maximum until after it happens.
"The maximum can be about a year in duration. You can't exactly say a point in time," Professor Wheatland said.
"At times of solar maximum, you get really big spot regions on the Sun like [AR3664]."
Despite the impressive auroral displays on the weekend, the solar maximum for this cycle isn't that big historically.
While April this year saw 136 sunspots detected, solar cycle 19 in the late 1950s got 359 at its peak.
The solar peaks in the 1980s and '90s regularly saw months with more than 200 sunspots.
Data shows sunspot maximums have got lower since the 1950s. (Supplied: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Centre)
Can we expect more auroras?
Although auroras are a familiar sight in Tasmania and Australia's southern coast, we may see more travelling further north in the next few months.
But there's a caveat — many things need to line up perfectly for impressive auroral displays to occur.
Put simply, auroras are extremely fickle.
One way we might get another quite quickly is from AR3664, the same sunspot that caused last weekend's display.
Back in 2003 when the last large solar storm occurred, there was not one storm, but two.
On October 28 and 29, 2003, what's now known as the Halloween solar storm produced auroral displays that could be seen as far north as the Australian mainland in the Southern Hemisphere, and as far south as Texas in the Northern Hemisphere.
But the sunspot that caused it wasn't done there.
The Sun rotated and the sunspot was out of range, but in a matter of weeks Earth came back into it's sights.
"Less than a month later, that same sunspot region came back around and spat out the really big one," Dr Carter said.
The storm caused airlines to be re-routed and a major power outage in Sweden.
We don't know whether or not AR3664 will produce something similar.
"Deep down, as space scientists we're hoping for it because it will give us some more interesting events," Dr Carter added.
"[AR3664] is rotating away from the Earth right now. While we can still see some impacts of it, it'll be out of view soon, and we won't see anything until it comes back around in a little less than a month's time."
The aurora captured at Squeaking Point Tasmania on Saturday. (Supplied: Tony Liu)
There's also potential for more auroras as we hit the solar maximum and peak sunspot activity.
However, it's not always the number of sunspots that predict how big a solar storm is going to be.
For example, a 1921 solar storm which was widely reported, and the 2003 Halloween storms both occurred late in the solar cycle, towards the solar minimum.
"Generally speaking more sunspots doesn't necessarily mean more intense storms. It might mean more frequent storms, or more frequent disturbances, but the really big ones can happen at any stage in the solar cycle."
Why are they so hard to predict?
Last Friday, even the most ardent aurora watchers only had a few hours notice before the show started.
Although this might only be a slight inconvenience for those wanting to capture the perfect shot, it can be a much bigger problem for technology companies.
Solar storms can affect satellite systems like GPS and satellite internet, as well as power grids and other technology.
Satellite internet company Starlink warned of a "degraded service" over the weekend. GPS was also disrupted, which according to some US news organisations, caused problems with precision farming equipment.
But Dr Carter said he was "pleasantly surprised" there hadn't been any major power grid disruptions.
"This could mean many things, but [...] we've been doing decades of research to try and make these pieces of infrastructure more resilient and capable of handling such disturbances.
"My view is that perhaps in this last storm we saw some of that work pay off."
For scientists like University of Newcastle stellar physicist Hannah Schunker, the short time frame between knowing the strength of a CME and when it hits us is an ongoing issue.
"We have these models of the solar wind, and we can see what's happening on the Sun," Dr Schunker said.
"If we model what's happened, we can estimate how it will act when it makes it to Earth. But we're not good at getting it very accurate."
To fix this, she thinks we need better observations of what's occurring closer to the Sun.
"We can put satellites near the Earth quite easily and we get a lot of measurements from there. That's where you get the one-hour notice from," she said.
There's a few spacecraft closer to the Sun, but these don't provide ongoing measurements of things like the magnetic field or charged particles which would give scientists the heads up on what's coming Earth's way.
"We can see that something's happened on the Sun. But we don't know anything about it until it gets to our satellites that are near the Earth," Dr Schunker said.
"We're kind of guessing until then."
Posted 10h ago
10 hours ago
Red and yellow lights glowing above land with a plane wing in view
Australians may see more dazzling solar storms in the upcoming months.(Supplied: Royal Flying Doctor Service/Eddie Fargher)
On the weekend, parts of Australia witnessed an auroral display not seen for more than 20 years.
If you had good weather, skies of pinks and greens could be seen as far north as Uluru and Mackay.
While the colours fade, it's worth dissecting what happened and what led up to this incredible display.
And as we reach the "solar maximum", or peak of solar activity over the next few months, can we expect more of the same?
How a sunspot can cause the aurora
Behind every stunning sky show is a sunspot — although not all sunspots lead to auroras.
Sunspots — cooler, dark patches on the Sun that have unusually high magnetic fields — are a regular solar occurrence.
In one month, there can be anywhere from a dozen to a few hundred sunspots.
But on May 9, a sunspot caught the attention of solar researchers.
NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured these images of the solar flares on May 8, 2024 (left) and May 9, 2024 (right). (Supplied: NASA/SDO)
And according to Brett Carter, a researcher in space physics and space weather at the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT), this one was huge.
"[The sunspot] rose up out of nothing over the course of last week," Dr Carter said.
"It was strong, it was very complex, and it was very loud."
The sunspot, which is called AR3664, was 15 times the diameter of Earth, and rivalled the dimensions of an 1859 sunspot which led to the most extreme solar storm ever documented.
Known as the Carrington event, that storm not only created stunning auroras, it played havoc with fledgling telegraph systems, sparking fires around the world.
The sunspot AR3664 (in red) compared with a drawing of the damaging 1859 sunspot (in blue).(Supplied: SDO/HMI)
Auroras are visible evidence of a sudden burst of charged particles from the Sun hitting Earth's atmosphere.
A sunspot in itself doesn't guarantee widespread aurora. For that to happen, the sunspot needs to release a solar flare and a coronal mass ejection or CME.
"Coronal mass ejections are associated with flares," said Michael Wheatland, a solar astrophysicist at the University of Sydney.
"A flare is just an intense, sudden release of energy and intense brightening [...] and a CME is when the magnetic field itself becomes unstable and leaves the Sun.
"You get this expulsion of both the magnetic field and the plasma from the Sun."
NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured images of the two solar flares on May 10 and May 11, 2024. (Supplied: NASA/SDO)
In last weekend's case, the sunspot AR3664 was facing Earth, and released multiple CMEs over a few days.
These CMEs, or intense solar winds, travel at different speeds, and when they "catch up" to one another they bunch up — like dirt in front of a bulldozer — and become stronger.
The CMEs created an extreme G5 storm on May 11, an intensity not seen since 2003.
An aurora occurs when the sun's particles make their way through the Earth's magnetic field. (ABC News)
The final ingredient for producing an aurora has to do with how the Earth's magnetic field interacts with this solar wind when it hits us.
"It's determined by what the orientation of the magnetic field is in the solar wind," Dr Carter said.
"If the orientation of the magnetic field in the solar wind is weaker — we say northward — Earth's magnetic field acts as an effective shield. But with the storm that we just had, it was not only southward, but it was hard southward."
This disturbance to Earth's magnetic field and upper atmosphere then produces the dazzling displays.
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YOUTUBEThe tech-breaking space storms that cause auroras
What's the solar maximum?
While last weekend's pink and green aurora was an obvious sign something is going on with the Sun at the moment, sunspots have actually been increasing steadily over the past few years.
We're now getting close to the "solar maximum", which is when we hit a peak of sunspots on the Sun's surface.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center has predicted the solar maximum may peak between January and October this year.
After the peak, the number of sunspots will start to wane.
This is all part of the solar cycle, which lasts around 11 years. Currently, we're in solar cycle 25, so named because sunspots have been tracked all the way back to 1750.
The reason for this increase in sunspots is because the Sun is going through some important growth of it's own — around solar maximum its magnetic poles reverse.
This is not an issue for Earth, apart from the extra sunspots produced. But scientists can't actually tell when we've hit solar maximum until after it happens.
"The maximum can be about a year in duration. You can't exactly say a point in time," Professor Wheatland said.
"At times of solar maximum, you get really big spot regions on the Sun like [AR3664]."
Despite the impressive auroral displays on the weekend, the solar maximum for this cycle isn't that big historically.
While April this year saw 136 sunspots detected, solar cycle 19 in the late 1950s got 359 at its peak.
The solar peaks in the 1980s and '90s regularly saw months with more than 200 sunspots.
Data shows sunspot maximums have got lower since the 1950s. (Supplied: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Centre)
Can we expect more auroras?
Although auroras are a familiar sight in Tasmania and Australia's southern coast, we may see more travelling further north in the next few months.
But there's a caveat — many things need to line up perfectly for impressive auroral displays to occur.
Put simply, auroras are extremely fickle.
One way we might get another quite quickly is from AR3664, the same sunspot that caused last weekend's display.
Back in 2003 when the last large solar storm occurred, there was not one storm, but two.
On October 28 and 29, 2003, what's now known as the Halloween solar storm produced auroral displays that could be seen as far north as the Australian mainland in the Southern Hemisphere, and as far south as Texas in the Northern Hemisphere.
But the sunspot that caused it wasn't done there.
The Sun rotated and the sunspot was out of range, but in a matter of weeks Earth came back into it's sights.
"Less than a month later, that same sunspot region came back around and spat out the really big one," Dr Carter said.
The storm caused airlines to be re-routed and a major power outage in Sweden.
We don't know whether or not AR3664 will produce something similar.
"Deep down, as space scientists we're hoping for it because it will give us some more interesting events," Dr Carter added.
"[AR3664] is rotating away from the Earth right now. While we can still see some impacts of it, it'll be out of view soon, and we won't see anything until it comes back around in a little less than a month's time."
The aurora captured at Squeaking Point Tasmania on Saturday. (Supplied: Tony Liu)
There's also potential for more auroras as we hit the solar maximum and peak sunspot activity.
However, it's not always the number of sunspots that predict how big a solar storm is going to be.
For example, a 1921 solar storm which was widely reported, and the 2003 Halloween storms both occurred late in the solar cycle, towards the solar minimum.
"Generally speaking more sunspots doesn't necessarily mean more intense storms. It might mean more frequent storms, or more frequent disturbances, but the really big ones can happen at any stage in the solar cycle."
Why are they so hard to predict?
Last Friday, even the most ardent aurora watchers only had a few hours notice before the show started.
Although this might only be a slight inconvenience for those wanting to capture the perfect shot, it can be a much bigger problem for technology companies.
Solar storms can affect satellite systems like GPS and satellite internet, as well as power grids and other technology.
Satellite internet company Starlink warned of a "degraded service" over the weekend. GPS was also disrupted, which according to some US news organisations, caused problems with precision farming equipment.
But Dr Carter said he was "pleasantly surprised" there hadn't been any major power grid disruptions.
"This could mean many things, but [...] we've been doing decades of research to try and make these pieces of infrastructure more resilient and capable of handling such disturbances.
"My view is that perhaps in this last storm we saw some of that work pay off."
For scientists like University of Newcastle stellar physicist Hannah Schunker, the short time frame between knowing the strength of a CME and when it hits us is an ongoing issue.
"We have these models of the solar wind, and we can see what's happening on the Sun," Dr Schunker said.
"If we model what's happened, we can estimate how it will act when it makes it to Earth. But we're not good at getting it very accurate."
To fix this, she thinks we need better observations of what's occurring closer to the Sun.
"We can put satellites near the Earth quite easily and we get a lot of measurements from there. That's where you get the one-hour notice from," she said.
There's a few spacecraft closer to the Sun, but these don't provide ongoing measurements of things like the magnetic field or charged particles which would give scientists the heads up on what's coming Earth's way.
"We can see that something's happened on the Sun. But we don't know anything about it until it gets to our satellites that are near the Earth," Dr Schunker said.
"We're kind of guessing until then."
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