https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/B...1&pub_date=20211111190000&seq_num=20&si=44594
Southeast Asia's Belt and Road rail hopes beset by delays
Only small fraction of Thailand's segment completed after 4 years
A rail line from Kunming, China, to Vientiane, Laos, is slated to open on Dec. 2. But other parts of the pan-Asia railway face setbacks. (Photo by Vientiane Times)
MARIMI KISHIMOTO, Nikkei staff writerNovember 11, 2021 02:41 JST
BANGKOK -- Much fanfare greeted a Chinese plan to connect Southeast Asia through more than 3,000 km of high-speed rail when it arrived in Thailand in 2017. But on the ground near one of its many pieces, the project has so little visibility that a train station attendant struggled to find it.
"A construction site for high-speed rail?" the mystified attendant in Nakhon Ratchasima, a two-hour drive north of Bangkok, said last month. "I don't know where it is."
The site, only about 100 meters from an existing rail line, had been graded but no rails had been laid. Nor is this the only delay for a project touted as a centerpiece of China's Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.
The rail network, variously referred to as the Kunming-Singapore Railway or the Pan-Asia Railway, is supposed to begin in Kunming in southern China and snake through Southeast Asia, ending in Singapore. Once completed, it would give China an artery to move goods and people from a landlocked province all the way to the tip of the Malay Peninsula.
In Thailand, the 250 km stretch between capital Bangkok and Nakhon Ratchasima was designated as the first segment. The groundbreaking ceremony in December 2017 was attended by Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha and other senior officials. But after nearly four years, only 3.5 km of rail has been laid.
Nowhere to go: A section of rail in Thailand's Nakhon Ratchasima province had yet to be laid in October 2021. (Photo by Marimi Kishimoto)
The first section was supposed to go into operation this year. Now the start date has been pushed back to 2026, according to the latest schedule by Thailand's Ministry of Transport.
Because of delays, the second section connecting Nakhon Ratchasima with the Laotian border will not go into service until 2028. The project to build the section going south from the Thai capital to the Malaysian border has been put on hold.
"Construction has been delayed because Chinese engineers can't enter the country due to COVID, as well as delays in land acquisition," said Pichet Kunathamaraks, deputy director-general of the transport ministry's Department of Rail Transport.
The section connecting Kunming and the Laotian capital of Vientiane -- the only segment whose construction proceeded on schedule -- is due to begin service Dec. 2.
China led that phase and covered 70% of the costs. The segment was completed in roughly five years.
Elsewhere, setbacks have been frequent. Plans to build the 350 km segment linking Singapore and the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur were officially halted in January. The two countries formally agreed to the construction in 2013, but former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad froze the project in 2018.
Despite efforts to renegotiate the terms of the project, the parties could not come to an agreement before the December 2020 deadline.
For the Malaysian segment connecting the city of Kota Bharu in the north to Port Klang in the west, less than a quarter of the construction had been finished by the end of August. Completion is expected to be pushed back by a year from the current target of the end of 2026.
The delays will sway the profitability of the various segments, which rely heavily on Chinese financing. Laos estimates that it will take 30 years after starting rail services to pay back the debt for building the line within its border. But that projection depends on receiving enough income from connections to surrounding countries. The spotty construction of the remaining segments will virtually guarantee that ridership will be weak.
Some have expressed concern that Laos may be unable to pay back the loans and fall into a debt trap, in which China will take over the rights on a key piece of infrastructure.
But for China, too, the ambitious rail project would lose strategic value as a major logistics artery if it remains incomplete. With the Chinese economy showing signs of slowing, there are indications that Belt and Road projects will not be immune to budget scrutiny. How long China will continue to provide financial assistance is unclear.
Southeast Asia's Belt and Road rail hopes beset by delays
Only small fraction of Thailand's segment completed after 4 years
A rail line from Kunming, China, to Vientiane, Laos, is slated to open on Dec. 2. But other parts of the pan-Asia railway face setbacks. (Photo by Vientiane Times)
MARIMI KISHIMOTO, Nikkei staff writerNovember 11, 2021 02:41 JST
BANGKOK -- Much fanfare greeted a Chinese plan to connect Southeast Asia through more than 3,000 km of high-speed rail when it arrived in Thailand in 2017. But on the ground near one of its many pieces, the project has so little visibility that a train station attendant struggled to find it.
"A construction site for high-speed rail?" the mystified attendant in Nakhon Ratchasima, a two-hour drive north of Bangkok, said last month. "I don't know where it is."
The site, only about 100 meters from an existing rail line, had been graded but no rails had been laid. Nor is this the only delay for a project touted as a centerpiece of China's Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.
The rail network, variously referred to as the Kunming-Singapore Railway or the Pan-Asia Railway, is supposed to begin in Kunming in southern China and snake through Southeast Asia, ending in Singapore. Once completed, it would give China an artery to move goods and people from a landlocked province all the way to the tip of the Malay Peninsula.
In Thailand, the 250 km stretch between capital Bangkok and Nakhon Ratchasima was designated as the first segment. The groundbreaking ceremony in December 2017 was attended by Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha and other senior officials. But after nearly four years, only 3.5 km of rail has been laid.
Nowhere to go: A section of rail in Thailand's Nakhon Ratchasima province had yet to be laid in October 2021. (Photo by Marimi Kishimoto)
The first section was supposed to go into operation this year. Now the start date has been pushed back to 2026, according to the latest schedule by Thailand's Ministry of Transport.
Because of delays, the second section connecting Nakhon Ratchasima with the Laotian border will not go into service until 2028. The project to build the section going south from the Thai capital to the Malaysian border has been put on hold.
"Construction has been delayed because Chinese engineers can't enter the country due to COVID, as well as delays in land acquisition," said Pichet Kunathamaraks, deputy director-general of the transport ministry's Department of Rail Transport.
The section connecting Kunming and the Laotian capital of Vientiane -- the only segment whose construction proceeded on schedule -- is due to begin service Dec. 2.
China led that phase and covered 70% of the costs. The segment was completed in roughly five years.
Elsewhere, setbacks have been frequent. Plans to build the 350 km segment linking Singapore and the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur were officially halted in January. The two countries formally agreed to the construction in 2013, but former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad froze the project in 2018.
Despite efforts to renegotiate the terms of the project, the parties could not come to an agreement before the December 2020 deadline.
For the Malaysian segment connecting the city of Kota Bharu in the north to Port Klang in the west, less than a quarter of the construction had been finished by the end of August. Completion is expected to be pushed back by a year from the current target of the end of 2026.
The delays will sway the profitability of the various segments, which rely heavily on Chinese financing. Laos estimates that it will take 30 years after starting rail services to pay back the debt for building the line within its border. But that projection depends on receiving enough income from connections to surrounding countries. The spotty construction of the remaining segments will virtually guarantee that ridership will be weak.
Some have expressed concern that Laos may be unable to pay back the loans and fall into a debt trap, in which China will take over the rights on a key piece of infrastructure.
But for China, too, the ambitious rail project would lose strategic value as a major logistics artery if it remains incomplete. With the Chinese economy showing signs of slowing, there are indications that Belt and Road projects will not be immune to budget scrutiny. How long China will continue to provide financial assistance is unclear.
