http://www.tremeritus.com/2013/02/24/road-map-to-ge-2016/
It’s good to have more alternative parties. I agree that WP, SDP and NSP have some good people. As for SPP, hopefully CST’s health can improve and more good men and women will join him to again contest Toa Payoh – Bishan GRC in GE 2016 as Potong Pasir is likely to be absorbed into a GRC.
KJ of RP has lost a lot of respect in contesting the PE BE. He can, however, redeem himself by pitting himself against LHL in AMK GRC if he can muster a strong team. KJ has to look at his team objectively to see if he has enough good men; if not, he should give way to another alternative party to take on LHL. KJ can also team up with CST if he needs a strong minority candidate for his GRC team. KJ is too good a talent to fade into oblivion; he was simply not politically astute in contesting the PE BE and must now be humble to admit his mistake or miscalculation. Hopefully, KJ can perpetuate the legacy of his father, the well respected JBJ.
All alternative parties should give way to another party which has worked the ground in a constituency/GRC or contested it in GE 2011, although an exception should be made for Punggol-Pasir Ris GRC since SDA has not caught on with the electorate. I believe DL said something like this at the alternative parties’ pow-wow before GE 2011: “Look into the mirror. If you are handsome, you are handsome. If you are ugly, you are ugly.” DL should learn his lesson and not squander his election deposits – be it his own money or the SDA’s (assuming no other party funds him or the SDA, as many netizens seem to think).
Unless Benjamin Pwee and/or Chia Li Tik bring their respective parties, DPP and SF, into the SDA, it does not look like SDA as an alliance under DL has any future – much as he claimed that his recent participation in the PE BE is to keep the flame of the SDA burning (the flame was in fact almost extinguished with the very dismal showing of DL).
Although boundaries are likely to be re-drawn, the alternative parties should work the ground now to snag at least the following GRCs from PAP:
AMK (6 seats): RP (or another alternative party)
Bishan-Toa Payoh (5 seats): SPP (in co-operation with RP, if necessary) or another alternative party (WP or SDP), if SPP cannot field a strong team
East Coast (5 seats): WP
Holland / Bukit Timah (4 seats): SDP
Marine Parade (5 seats): NSP
Moulmein-Kallang (4 seats): WP
Punggol-Pasir Ris (6 seats): WP
Sembawang (5 seats): SDP
Tampines (5 seats): NSP
Tanjong Pagar (5 seats): SDP
All parties should field “A” teams for GRCs.
Hopefully, with WP retaining Aljunied GRC (5 seats), Hougang and PE SMCs, the total seats for the alternative parties would be 57 seats – assuming all the above were won. If the total number of MPs remain at the current 87, this means that the alternative parties would still be one short of the required 2/3 majority (58 MPs) to pass constitutional amendments to reverse those passed by PAP for self-serving reasons to preserve and entrench themselves as the government. One more GRC or one more SMC has to fall into the alternative parties’ hands to achieve the minimum 2/3-majority needed.
The following should be contingencies or fall-backs if any of the above GRCs are not won: Choa Chu Kang GRC (NSP), Nee Soon GRC (WP), West Coast GRC (RP or SDP, if RP cannot muster a strong team) and Joo Chiat SMC (WP) if it is not absorbed into a GRC. The alternative parties should focus on the giant fishes (GRCs) and not the small fishes (SMCs). The PAP ministers, especially those who talk too much without a feel for the ground, are vulnerable and can be dislodged.
We need to be realistic that it is not possible for alternative parties to come together as one, as of now. We can only hope that they will avoid 3 or multi-cornered fights or the electorate will act as in PE BE, if they failed to do so, in casting all or nearly all anti-PAP votes for the alternative party with the best prospects of displacing PAP.
If WP acquires a new building, it should convene a meeting of all alternative parties before GE 2016 to discuss and agree on avoiding three or multi-cornered fights. There is no need for SDA to do so (as it lacks the stature), as in GE 2011 when DL of SDA hosted one — kind courtesy of PKMS in its building. DL, who seemed to have an inflated sense of importance as the head of the pow-wow in his capacity as Secretary-General of the SDA at that time, may perhaps withdraw to concentrate on raising his family as politics does not seem to be his cup of tea.
All would-be candidates of alternative parties should at least be graduates, although they need not come from elite universities since there are many other qualities which matter (as in WP’s Lee Li Lian’s case). However, they must be fluent in their speeches. If they cannot speak naturally off the cuff, they must do so fluently from prepared texts when they deliver their speeches at rallies. Hopefully, more Malay graduates will join the alternative parties as they usually have problems attracting good Malay candidates for GRC teams. The PAP seems to be aware of this problem and uses its extensive grassroots network to nab most of the promising ones before the alternative parties reach them.
The ground is now sweet, and alternative parties should WALK it and not merely TALK to prepare for GE 2016. As the Population White Paper has been rushed through and passed, PAP MUST BE OUSTED IN GE 2016. Forget about its promise to review the situation annually and the continuing National Conversation – which appears to be an exercise to persuade or convert people to PAP’s policies by re-packaging or communicating them in a different way. If PAP is still the government after GE 2016, the 6.0 million population target, benchmark or parameter (whatever term may be used to call this) will be reached in 2020 (as the next GE is in 2021), and then the 6.9 million in 2030 or even earlier — based on PAP’s consistent track records in the past in exceeding targets or plan parameters for population.
VOTE WISELY in GE 2016. EVERY VOTE IS CRITICAL AND IMPORTANT to effect a regime change. 2016 may be the last chance to make this happen before the Singaporean core in the population becomes too diluted to make this happen.
Majulah Singapura!
.
Watchman
It’s good to have more alternative parties. I agree that WP, SDP and NSP have some good people. As for SPP, hopefully CST’s health can improve and more good men and women will join him to again contest Toa Payoh – Bishan GRC in GE 2016 as Potong Pasir is likely to be absorbed into a GRC.
KJ of RP has lost a lot of respect in contesting the PE BE. He can, however, redeem himself by pitting himself against LHL in AMK GRC if he can muster a strong team. KJ has to look at his team objectively to see if he has enough good men; if not, he should give way to another alternative party to take on LHL. KJ can also team up with CST if he needs a strong minority candidate for his GRC team. KJ is too good a talent to fade into oblivion; he was simply not politically astute in contesting the PE BE and must now be humble to admit his mistake or miscalculation. Hopefully, KJ can perpetuate the legacy of his father, the well respected JBJ.
All alternative parties should give way to another party which has worked the ground in a constituency/GRC or contested it in GE 2011, although an exception should be made for Punggol-Pasir Ris GRC since SDA has not caught on with the electorate. I believe DL said something like this at the alternative parties’ pow-wow before GE 2011: “Look into the mirror. If you are handsome, you are handsome. If you are ugly, you are ugly.” DL should learn his lesson and not squander his election deposits – be it his own money or the SDA’s (assuming no other party funds him or the SDA, as many netizens seem to think).
Unless Benjamin Pwee and/or Chia Li Tik bring their respective parties, DPP and SF, into the SDA, it does not look like SDA as an alliance under DL has any future – much as he claimed that his recent participation in the PE BE is to keep the flame of the SDA burning (the flame was in fact almost extinguished with the very dismal showing of DL).
Although boundaries are likely to be re-drawn, the alternative parties should work the ground now to snag at least the following GRCs from PAP:
AMK (6 seats): RP (or another alternative party)
Bishan-Toa Payoh (5 seats): SPP (in co-operation with RP, if necessary) or another alternative party (WP or SDP), if SPP cannot field a strong team
East Coast (5 seats): WP
Holland / Bukit Timah (4 seats): SDP
Marine Parade (5 seats): NSP
Moulmein-Kallang (4 seats): WP
Punggol-Pasir Ris (6 seats): WP
Sembawang (5 seats): SDP
Tampines (5 seats): NSP
Tanjong Pagar (5 seats): SDP
All parties should field “A” teams for GRCs.
Hopefully, with WP retaining Aljunied GRC (5 seats), Hougang and PE SMCs, the total seats for the alternative parties would be 57 seats – assuming all the above were won. If the total number of MPs remain at the current 87, this means that the alternative parties would still be one short of the required 2/3 majority (58 MPs) to pass constitutional amendments to reverse those passed by PAP for self-serving reasons to preserve and entrench themselves as the government. One more GRC or one more SMC has to fall into the alternative parties’ hands to achieve the minimum 2/3-majority needed.
The following should be contingencies or fall-backs if any of the above GRCs are not won: Choa Chu Kang GRC (NSP), Nee Soon GRC (WP), West Coast GRC (RP or SDP, if RP cannot muster a strong team) and Joo Chiat SMC (WP) if it is not absorbed into a GRC. The alternative parties should focus on the giant fishes (GRCs) and not the small fishes (SMCs). The PAP ministers, especially those who talk too much without a feel for the ground, are vulnerable and can be dislodged.
We need to be realistic that it is not possible for alternative parties to come together as one, as of now. We can only hope that they will avoid 3 or multi-cornered fights or the electorate will act as in PE BE, if they failed to do so, in casting all or nearly all anti-PAP votes for the alternative party with the best prospects of displacing PAP.
If WP acquires a new building, it should convene a meeting of all alternative parties before GE 2016 to discuss and agree on avoiding three or multi-cornered fights. There is no need for SDA to do so (as it lacks the stature), as in GE 2011 when DL of SDA hosted one — kind courtesy of PKMS in its building. DL, who seemed to have an inflated sense of importance as the head of the pow-wow in his capacity as Secretary-General of the SDA at that time, may perhaps withdraw to concentrate on raising his family as politics does not seem to be his cup of tea.
All would-be candidates of alternative parties should at least be graduates, although they need not come from elite universities since there are many other qualities which matter (as in WP’s Lee Li Lian’s case). However, they must be fluent in their speeches. If they cannot speak naturally off the cuff, they must do so fluently from prepared texts when they deliver their speeches at rallies. Hopefully, more Malay graduates will join the alternative parties as they usually have problems attracting good Malay candidates for GRC teams. The PAP seems to be aware of this problem and uses its extensive grassroots network to nab most of the promising ones before the alternative parties reach them.
The ground is now sweet, and alternative parties should WALK it and not merely TALK to prepare for GE 2016. As the Population White Paper has been rushed through and passed, PAP MUST BE OUSTED IN GE 2016. Forget about its promise to review the situation annually and the continuing National Conversation – which appears to be an exercise to persuade or convert people to PAP’s policies by re-packaging or communicating them in a different way. If PAP is still the government after GE 2016, the 6.0 million population target, benchmark or parameter (whatever term may be used to call this) will be reached in 2020 (as the next GE is in 2021), and then the 6.9 million in 2030 or even earlier — based on PAP’s consistent track records in the past in exceeding targets or plan parameters for population.
VOTE WISELY in GE 2016. EVERY VOTE IS CRITICAL AND IMPORTANT to effect a regime change. 2016 may be the last chance to make this happen before the Singaporean core in the population becomes too diluted to make this happen.
Majulah Singapura!
.
Watchman
