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Rethinking policies on North Korea

sukhoi-30

Alfrescian
Loyal
Today's flare-up of violence between Pyongyang and Seoul is a serious indication that the threat in the Korean peninsular is real. The potential of this incident affecting the economic and political stability in the region is a cause for concern . However the best remedy is still restrain on all parties concerned.

The North shelling of the South civilian populated island is a serious cause for concern. Its constant threat of war following US-South Korean military exercises has earlier been seen by some western powers of empty threats but today's artillery duel reflected Pyongyang's unpredictability. Its daring act of firing into southern territories amidst a huge naval exercises by the South Navy show Pyongyang's disregard not only against the South military but the US military as well. Thus earlier large scale military exercises by the US-South Korean militaries which aims to send a clear signal of US military seems to fall on deaf ears and instead backfired.

Serious reconsiderations must also be done to examine Seoul's policy towards its northern neighbor.Ever since the Lee Myung-bak Administration started a tough policy towards the North, inter-Korean relations have been on the rocks.While the North provocation did not ended totally during earlier "SunShine Policy" by President Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moon Hyun, it seems President Lee policy of seeking a tough, confrontation stance against the North and seeking closer ties with the US and Japan has invited the extreme wrath of Pyongyang. It also pushes Pyongyang closer to China and even to Russia who sees the US alliances with Seoul and Japan directly affecting its security in the far east.

World powers now need to readjust their views and policies against North Korea following this attack. Tough sanctions and condemnation only fuel even greater hostility by Pyongyang. The example of Iraq without nuclear weapons has made the North more determined to acquire nuclear weapons. With this nuclear deterrence by Pyeongyang , things are more difficult to solve.

The world cannot allow a war to start between the two Koreas as any war eventualities would mean certain death for both Koreas and the world's economy. South Korea with its huge economy would suffer as much as the North if not more worse. There must be restrain on all sides. Earlier UN condemnations and US military threats only added to even greater hostilities.

Conventional methods it seems cannot work in response to North korea whose unpredictability,daring brinksmanship, sharp rehtoric and a secretive military force have puzzled even the most brillant analyst.
 

GoldenDragon

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Today's flare-up of violence between Pyongyang and Seoul is a serious indication that the threat in the Korean peninsular is real. The potential of this incident affecting the economic and political stability in the region is a cause for concern . However the best remedy is still restrain on all parties concerned.

The North shelling of the South civilian populated island is a serious cause for concern. Its constant threat of war following US-South Korean military exercises has earlier been seen by some western powers of empty threats but today's artillery duel reflected Pyongyang's unpredictability. Its daring act of firing into southern territories amidst a huge naval exercises by the South Navy show Pyongyang's disregard not only against the South military but the US military as well. Thus earlier large scale military exercises by the US-South Korean militaries which aims to send a clear signal of US military seems to fall on deaf ears and instead backfired.

Serious reconsiderations must also be done to examine Seoul's policy towards its northern neighbor.Ever since the Lee Myung-bak Administration started a tough policy towards the North, inter-Korean relations have been on the rocks.While the North provocation did not ended totally during earlier "SunShine Policy" by President Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moon Hyun, it seems President Lee policy of seeking a tough, confrontation stance against the North and seeking closer ties with the US and Japan has invited the extreme wrath of Pyongyang. It also pushes Pyongyang closer to China and even to Russia who sees the US alliances with Seoul and Japan directly affecting its security in the far east.

World powers now need to readjust their views and policies against North Korea following this attack. Tough sanctions and condemnation only fuel even greater hostility by Pyongyang. The example of Iraq without nuclear weapons has made the North more determined to acquire nuclear weapons. With this nuclear deterrence by Pyeongyang , things are more difficult to solve.

The world cannot allow a war to start between the two Koreas as any war eventualities would mean certain death for both Koreas and the world's economy. South Korea with its huge economy would suffer as much as the North if not more worse. There must be restrain on all sides. Earlier UN condemnations and US military threats only added to even greater hostilities.

Conventional methods it seems cannot work in response to North korea whose unpredictability,daring brinksmanship, sharp rehtoric and a secretive military force have puzzled even the most brillant analyst.

Most impressed with your succinct analysis. Whatever will soon take place, be it an escalation or a truce, I suspect China will have to play an influential role, given the fact that it is the North that is the aggressor the previous time and this round. Yes, no one gains when war is initiated except the people in the arms industry.
 

Watchman

Alfrescian
Loyal
kim.jpg
 

Watchman

Alfrescian
Loyal
<iframe title="YouTube video player" class="youtube-player" type="text/html" width="960" height="750" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/ZcsXT6fL9lE?hd=1" frameborder="0"></iframe>
 

Dreamer1

Alfrescian
Loyal
North Korea is the problem of communist China,the new super power in the making.

I just find Uncle Sam incredible,if super mad and aged Chairman Kim should decide to drop a few of his toy atomic bombs around,who would run for cover?definitely not uncle Sam,but his buddy,the stonely faced Chinese communists,mercantile Japanese,their own brothers Koreans fr the South,etc

Lets face it,Uncle Sam today cannot solve its own problems,it is not the end for them,of course,but they do need miracles,such as another Bill Gates to creat a new trillion dollars industry,but that dream is still long way off.

The real politik is that Uncle Sam is no more in its previous mopology power position,better let the new kid PRC takes over the leadership rule in East Asia,hopefully they would learn to take responsibility and not insisting to hang around with murderous Generals fr Myanmar,mad but aged Chairman Kim and his young son,the moustached guy who cheated in Iran,those crazy murderers fr Congo,or the new funny man fr venezula,etc

PRC should grow up if they are going to be a global leader,or else it would just be a dream for billions of our Chinese brothers and sisters for so many years.
 

longbow

Alfrescian
Loyal
It is not that the US economy has gotten weaker; it is just that some countries are getting stronger. The old world order of "with us or against us" has been shattered.

Pointless to classify a particular country. into communist, merchantile or democracy. Lets take Communism - "Communism is a sociopolitical movement that aims for a stateless and classless society structured upon common ownership of the means of production, free access to articles of consumption, the end of wage labour and private property on the means of production and real estate" Do not really see any of that in China - go check Roll Royce sales in China, Hermes, LV, sales in China! Especially with recent news that China has the most billionaires outside of USA! Merchantile - I assume you refer to business dominated, export orientated economies - Japan, Taiwan, Germany, S Korea, Thailand all fall into this category.

In the end, what is most important is whether the country delivers for it citizens - clean water, sewerage treatment, medical care, more per capita income, opportunities for advancemnet, education for kids, infant mortality, etc etc.

North Korea - why does China continue backing North Korea? Because it is a smart thing to do. With North Korea it has an ace against US in Asia. So there is horsetrading going on behind the scenes (you leave Tibet alone and we rein in NK). And the more aces you have the more you can trade. Without NK, US troops could very well be parked right across the border with China! So from Chinese perspective NK makes sense. In this new world order there will be no overt war between US, BRIC countries so the game is get as many aces and horsetrade.

As for Myanmar - the US and India have been making friendly overtures to the "murderous generals" because Myanmar can be a foil againsts. That could be reason why Aung San Suu Kyi was recently releases. Myanmar themselves do not want to become to subservient to the Chinese.

China can easily collapse NK in 2 weeks if it wants to do so. Offer all the top generals asylum in China with house and pension. Open up the border, offer US$2K and automatic resettlement in South Korea (SK to pay for it) to any NK that comes across border to China and I think the border guards will be the first to run as the country empties out. Kim will wake up and wonder why no one comes when he press the buzzer.

Why do you think Pakistan is still interfering with affairs in Afghanistan. By doing so, they will continue to enjoy US acquiesence, $ for weapons, feted in Washington and horsetrade against India over Kashmir. Without Afganistan, Washington could easily turn Pakistan into an internation pariah like Iran! India (Pakistan's enemy) knows this and they are one of the biggest player in Afghanistan. I suspect that if Pakistan really wanted it could demoliish the Taliaban in a matter of months.

IMHO - countries should serve and improve lives of their citizens, it should engage in global politics that are to its national interest - so the horse trading continues. It is the way of civilized nations. It is what we see in civil society. No more whacking someone with brass knuckles in an alley - instead sue them in court for every penny they have.
 
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vamjok

Alfrescian
Loyal
war actually create jobs in US, if its was in bush era....North korea is dead. i am sure he will sure bomb back.
 
Z

Zombie

Guest
The world cannot allow a war to start between the two Koreas as any war eventualities would mean certain death for both Koreas and the world's economy.

If NK/SK go to war, China/Japan/Taiwan may be drawn into it.
Investors will pull out funds to other parts of the world.
Where can they go?
 

cheowyonglee

Alfrescian
Loyal
It is not that the US economy has gotten weaker; it is just that some countries are getting stronger. The old world order of "with us or against us" has been shattered.

Pointless to classify a particular country. into communist, merchantile or democracy. Lets take Communism - "Communism is a sociopolitical movement that aims for a stateless and classless society structured upon common ownership of the means of production, free access to articles of consumption, the end of wage labour and private property on the means of production and real estate" Do not really see any of that in China - go check Roll Royce sales in China, Hermes, LV, sales in China! Especially with recent news that China has the most billionaires outside of USA! Merchantile - I assume you refer to business dominated, export orientated economies - Japan, Taiwan, Germany, S Korea, Thailand all fall into this category.

In the end, what is most important is whether the country delivers for it citizens - clean water, sewerage treatment, medical care, more per capita income, opportunities for advancemnet, education for kids, infant mortality, etc etc.

North Korea - why does China continue backing North Korea? Because it is a smart thing to do. With North Korea it has an ace against US in Asia. So there is horsetrading going on behind the scenes (you leave Tibet alone and we rein in NK). And the more aces you have the more you can trade. Without NK, US troops could very well be parked right across the border with China! So from Chinese perspective NK makes sense. In this new world order there will be no overt war between US, BRIC countries so the game is get as many aces and horsetrade.

As for Myanmar - the US and India have been making friendly overtures to the "murderous generals" because Myanmar can be a foil againsts. That could be reason why Aung San Suu Kyi was recently releases. Myanmar themselves do not want to become to subservient to the Chinese.

China can easily collapse NK in 2 weeks if it wants to do so. Offer all the top generals asylum in China with house and pension. Open up the border, offer US$2K and automatic resettlement in South Korea (SK to pay for it) to any NK that comes across border to China and I think the border guards will be the first to run as the country empties out. Kim will wake up and wonder why no one comes when he press the buzzer.

Why do you think Pakistan is still interfering with affairs in Afghanistan. By doing so, they will continue to enjoy US acquiesence, $ for weapons, feted in Washington and horsetrade against India over Kashmir. Without Afganistan, Washington could easily turn Pakistan into an internation pariah like Iran! India (Pakistan's enemy) knows this and they are one of the biggest player in Afghanistan. I suspect that if Pakistan really wanted it could demoliish the Taliaban in a matter of months.

IMHO - countries should serve and improve lives of their citizens, it should engage in global politics that are to its national interest - so the horse trading continues. It is the way of civilized nations. It is what we see in civil society. No more whacking someone with brass knuckles in an alley - instead sue them in court for every penny they have.

this is a very good and informative information.very well written and full of wisedom. :cool:
 

sukhoi-30

Alfrescian
Loyal
Contrary to western analysts that China are "fed-up" with North Korea and that there were serious rifts, the relationship between Beijing and Pyongyang are never closer then in recent years. China even refuse to put a single blame on the north for the Cheonan Incident when many of the western powers and Japan did.There were also a constant and mutual visits by top officials between the two communist nations. Far from hostility, Chinese-North Korean ties have become even stronger after the Cheonan Incident. In the 60th anniversary of China's entry into the Korea war to assist the North Koreans, media reports shows the natural rapport between the Chinese and the Koreans. Reports today also confirms the sudden postphone of Chinese foreign minister Yang Jie-chi to Seoul after this flareup of inter-Korean ties.

Seoul and Washington were puzzled by Beijing stance on this issue. Unlike countries(who has substantial investment/economic ties with Seoul) who were quick to condemn North Korea,China remains steadfast on the North side.Many have urged that China since becoming so modern and economically strong would be pragmatic in his relations vis s vis North and South Korea were stunned. South Korea has huge investments in China yet China refused to allow this economic ties to affect her relations with the North. It is therefore a huge mystery for many on why China, despite its economic reforms and openness still attached itself so closely to a Stalinist state like North Korea.

Thus, the relationship between China and North Korea goes beyond that of any bilateral relations between countries and normal foreign relations theories. Besides this, there was also a similar views on security threat and political conviction between Pyongyang and Beijing that may be diificult for western analysts and even other Asians to comprehend. Sino-North korean ties are similar to the close Sino-Pakistan ties but twice, triple or even more than that.

This ties may be condemned as irrelevant or illogical by many but only China herself knows best on the reasons for that. In restropect, China understands the minds of the North Koreans better than anyone else, except perhaps ex-US Pesident Jimmy Carter. Thus, a rethinking by the international community esp the US on how to deal with the North is vital to prevent further escalations in the Korean peninsular and Asia in general.
 

Sideswipe

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
t is therefore a huge mystery for many on why China, despite its economic reforms and openness still attached itself so closely to a Stalinist state like North Korea.

The Chinese Communist Party owed a debt of gratitude toward Kim II-Sung. In the Chinese Civil War from 1946-1949, Kim sent 250K North Korea soldiers to fight alongside CCP troops against the Chinese Nationalists. That was one of the reasons why CCP won the war.

North Korea also got help CCP before. :biggrin:
 

Areopagus

Alfrescian
Loyal
The US and South Korea were doing exercises at the time. North Korea claims that they were provoked which China agrees with.

End result is that US gets to send an Aircraft carrier into the Yellow Sea just as China is complaining about Quantitative Easing....

Gunboat diplomacy has not changed in the last 200 years!
 
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