Rejoice....More global property is under water, but Sinki Property is still Heng Ong Huat de woh

[k1976]

Business

Real Estate Stress Is Brewing in Asian Markets Other Than China​

• Surging rates plague South Korea, Indonesia and Hong Kong
• Vietnam hit by crackdown; some Aussie households under strain

Korea’s property market is showing the most strain after China in the region, with prices in 2023 falling by the most in a quarter of a century after years of growth.

Photographer: SeongJoon Cho/Bloomberg
By Harry Suhartono and Finbarr Flynn
December 30, 2023 at 8:00 AM GMT+8


Surging interest rates and regulatory scrutiny are causing distress for builders and creditors in Asian economies from South Korea to Vietnam, highlighting the breadth of housing woes in a region overshadowed by China’s crisis.

While aggressive monetary tightening and the pandemic have had a more pronounced impact on commercial property in the US and Europe, it’s residential housing that is under more strain in Asia. One of the worst hit nations, Korea, saw the steepest home price slump in 25 years while a construction firm’s repayment struggle has rekindled fears of repeating the credit market turmoil in 2022.
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[k1976]

We are in good hands, please buy more and more

 

[k1976]

A Huge Wager on Office Buildings Is Going From Bad to Worse​

In South Korea, fund managers and bankers are braced for a wave of loans going sour because of poorly timed punts on overseas property and local project finance.

Frankfurt’s Trianon skyscraper.

Photographer: Alex Kraus/Bloomberg
By Bloomberg News

December 20, 2023 at 8:00 AM GMT+8
Updated on
December 20, 2023 at 6:55 PM GMT+8


Banks and asset managers are expecting a wave of bad loans to hit South Korea in the coming months, as the country counts the cost of an ill-starred splurge on overseas office blocks and local infrastructure.

Fund managers in Seoul were among the biggest investors in European and US commercial buildings in recent years, and the property crisis has left them with swaths of assets whose values have plunged, many due for refinancing.

Others piled into domestic infrastructure projects, where defaults have already soared.
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[k1976]

China’s Economy Seen Weakening on Drags From Deflation, Property​

• Nov. activity likely distorted by high base of comparison
• Data may support calls for additional stimulus to help growth

By Bloomberg News
December 14, 2023 at 7:00 AM GMT+8

China’s economy likely lost some momentum in November, raising expectations for Beijing to ramp up stimulus in the new year.
Data due Friday is expected to show industrial output weakening from October and a contraction in property investment worsening as efforts to support growth have yet to take hold.

Deflationary pressures remain a concern, casting a shadow over any uptick in year-on-year retail sales growth.
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[k1976]

China’s middle class battered by real-estate meltdown—and it might be just ‘the beginning of more wealth losses’​

Household wealth is melting away for many as the world’s second-largest economy struggles to regain momentum.​

BY
BLOOMBERG
December 17, 2023 7:47 PM EST


Stock investments: down 30%. Salary package: down 30%. Investment property: down 20%. As Thomas Zhou reflects on 2023, his household finances are front of mind.

It’s just heart-breaking,” the 40-year-old financial worker from Shanghai said. “The only thing that still keeps me going is the thought of keeping my job so I can support my big family.”

Zhou’s predicament will resonate with many people in China, where slumps in the real estate and stock markets are wiping away household wealth. And as the world’s second-largest economy struggles to regain momentum after years of Covid-19 lockdowns, there’s also the growing threat of unemployment.

Now, middle class households are being forced to rethink their money priorities, with some pulling away from investing, or selling assets to free-up liquidity.

At the heart of the decline in family wealth is China’s real estate meltdown, which having a pervasive effect on a society where 70% of family assets are tied up in property. Every 5% decline in home prices will wipe out 19 trillion yuan ($2.7 trillion) in housing wealth, according to Bloomberg Economics.

 

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It might just be the beginning of more wealth losses in coming years,” said Eric Zhu, an economist with Bloomberg Economics. “Unless there’s a big bull market, small gains in financial wealth are unlikely to offset losses in housing wealth.”

While China’s official data show just a mild drop in its existing home prices, evidence from property agents and private data providers indicate declines of at least 15% in prime areas in its biggest cities.

The housing sector’s value may shrink to about 16% of China’s gross domestic product by 2026 from around 20% of GDP currently, according to Bloomberg Economics. This would put about 5 million people, or about 1% of urban workforce, at the risk of unemployment or reduced incomes.

 

[k1976]

Rainy Days​

Financial investments offer little respite. Chinese shares underperformed emerging-market peers by the widest margin since at least 1998 earlier this month. Mutual funds were in the red as of the third quarter. Yields on banks’ wealth management products remain subdued and deposit rates have seen three reductions in the past year.

The $2.9 trillion trust industry, where wealthy Chinese investors have sought high returns from products sold by loosely regulated shadow banks, is showing cracks, with one recent scandal potentially involving tens of billions of dollars in losses.

 

[k1976]

The $2.9 trillion trust industry, where wealthy Chinese investors have sought high returns from products sold by loosely regulated shadow banks, is showing cracks, with one recent scandal potentially involving tens of billions of dollars in losses.

Net worth per adult in China slid 2.2% to $75,731 in 2022, UBS said in its August global wealth report, while total assets per adult fell for the first time since 2000 as non-financial holdings shrank due to the housing market difficulties.

Media worker Echo Huang watched as the value of her investment property in Ningbo, Zhejiang province fell about 1 million yuan from its 2019 peak. Now, she considers herself lucky to have sold it in May before prices dropped further.

Huang gave the majority of the proceeds from the property sale to her parents for their retirement savings, and put the rest in demand deposits and money market funds that allow real-time redemptions. She ruled out stock investments after her current holdings more than erased all gains since 2018.

“My company is struggling to survive, so who knows if I might get paid less or even laid off one day,” said the 39-year-old. “My main goal is stability in my assets, and I want to keep enough liquidity on hand.”

 

[k1976]

Wealth Protection​

Even high-net-worth-individuals are turning more conservative, according to a joint survey by China Merchants Bank Co. and Bain & Co. The number of the cohort citing “wealth protection” among their major money goals jumped significantly in 2023, and mentions of “wealth creation” decreased.

Peter Bao, who works at a big technology firm in Beijing, is following a prudent investment strategy.

His stock holdings, mostly in US-listed Chinese shares, at one point halved to the equivalent of about 5 million yuan from a late 2020 peak. Over the past two years he’s shifted part of his assets to money market funds and fixed income products that require less analysis. He’s hoping that he’ll be able to withstand short-term volatility and potential losses.

There isn’t a single moment without anxiety and doubt, but there are no better options,” Bao said. “Also I need to focus on my job to protect my source of income, so I really can’t spare more time to explore other investments that are reliable.”

 

[k1976]

The year the Australian Dream died​

• By Tiffanie Turnbull
• BBC News, Sydney

28 December 2023

IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES
Image caption,
The average price of a home in Sydney is over A$1m (£535,000, $678,000)

At the age of 31, Justin Dowswell never imagined he'd be living in a shared room in his childhood home.

He had a full-time, well-paying job in Sydney, and had rented for a decade before an unprecedented housing crisis forced him to upend his life and move back in with his parents, two hours away.

"It's humbling," he says. But the alternative was homelessness: "So I'm one of the lucky ones".

It's a far cry from the promise of the Great Australian Dream.

 

[k1976]

Where the American Dream is a more abstract belief that anyone can achieve success if they work hard enough, the Australian version is tangible.

For generations, owning a house on a modest block of land has been idealised as both the ultimate marker of success and a gateway to a better life.

It's an aspiration that has wormed its way into the country's identity, helping to shape modern Australia.

From the so-called "Ten Pound Poms" in the 1950s to the current boom in skilled workers moving from India, waves of migrants have arrived on Australia's shores in search of its promise. And many found it.

But for current generations the dreams proffered to their parents and grandparents are out of reach.

After decades of government policies that treat housing as an investment not a right, many say they would be lucky to even find a stable, affordable place to rent.

"The Australian Dream… it's a big lie," Mr Dowswell says.

 

[k1976]

A perfect storm​

Almost everything that could go wrong with housing in Australia has gone wrong, says Michael Fotheringham.

"The only thing that could make it worse is if banks started collapsing," the head of the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute tells the BBC.

Underpinning it all is that buying a house is astronomically expensive - the average property now costs about nine times an ordinary household's income, triple what it was 25 years ago.

It's particularly dire for the three quarters of Australians who live in major cities. Sydney, for example, is the second least affordable city on Earth to buy a property, trailing only Hong Kong, according to the 2023 Demographia International Housing Affordability survey.

Australia has made home ownership virtually unattainable for almost anyone without family wealth. Last month the boss of a major bank, ANZ, said home loans had become "the preserve of the rich".

 

[k1976]

That's left people like Chelsea Hickman questioning their future. The 28-year-old fashion designer always imagined she'd become both a homeowner and a mother, but now worries that may be impossible.

"Financially, how could I ever afford both? The numbers just do not add up," she says.
She tells the BBC from her Melbourne shared house that despite working full-time for almost a decade, she can't even afford to rent an apartment by herself. Her friends are in a similar boat.

"Where did it go wrong?" she says.
"We did everything that everyone said we should do, and we're still not reaching this point where we're going to have financial independence and housing security."

 

[k1976]

Tarek Bieganski, a 26-year-old IT manager, laughs when asked if he thinks he'll ever own property.

"It's just so obviously out of reach that it's not really even a thought anymore," he says. "And this is coming from someone that, really, has got it pretty good."

But with interest rates rising faster than at any time in Australia's history, even many of those who have scraped their way on to the property ladder now live in fear of falling off it.

Foodbanks are being overwhelmed by mortgage holders struggling to keep their heads above water. Hordes of people are picking up extra jobs. Many pensioners have been forced back into work.

It's not doom and gloom for everyone though.

 

[k1976]

Australia has long thought itself the land of a fair go.

"[But] education and hard work are no longer the main determinants of how wealthy you are; now it comes down to where you live and what sort of house you inherit from your parents," Mr Kohler says.

"It means Australia is less of an
egalitarian meritocracy."

Or as Ms Hickman sums it up: "It's rigged."

 

[k1976]

Sound familiar?

 

[CoffeeAhSoh]

Cannot remember when was the SG last property prices down turn ...

 

[CoffeeAhSoh]

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private residential prices have typically rebounded higher from their previous peaks.
During the Asian Financial Crisis, which occurred from 1997 to 1999, residential prices in Singapore declined 37% over five quarters, followed by an increase of 40% across six quarters. The Global Financial Crisis, which took place from 2008 to 2009, saw prices fall by 25% across four quarters, after which they rebounded 62% across 17 quarters, notes Tan.

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[syed putra]

These were malay kamopung land they are profiting from. We want it back.