OMG...Bidenomic miracle booming is knocking back Fed Rate Cut as US Job Market CheekaBOOM

[k1976]

Fears grow over rate cut delays after US jobs shock​

Chris Price
Sat, 6 April 2024 at 1:42 am SGT43-min read

The US economy added 303,000 jobs in March, well ahead of analysts' forecasts - David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

Money markets have pushed back their expectations for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve after shock US employment figures.

Traders are not pricing in a first interest cut by the Fed until September, having earlier predicted the move would have certainly happened by July.

It comes after “blockbuster” US employment data came in much higher than expected.
The US economy added 303,000 jobs in March, up from a downwardly revised 270,000 in February and much higher than the 214,000 predicted by analysts.

 

[k1976]

The pound dropped sharply following the data, falling as much as 0.7pc against the dollar below $1.26.

However, markets on Wall Street moved higher in early trading as the data also revealed unemployment fell slightly to 3.8pc and wage growth slowed to 4.1pc.

A rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June is still given a roughly 50pc chance.

Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, said: “The blockbuster 303,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March supports the Fed’s position that the resilience of the economy means it can take its time with rate cuts, which might now not begin until the second half of this year.”

 

[laksaboy]

Stolen elections have consequences.

 

[k1976]

Preston Caldwell, chief US economist at Morningstar, added: “There is no weakness in the job market which would impel the Fed to quickly cut, but no tightness which would prohibit a cut either.

“Fed decisions in upcoming meetings will hinge mainly on the inflation data. We continue to expect slowdown in job growth in the second half of 2024 in response to slowing economic growth.”

 

[k1976]

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China’s yuan red line response has traders eyeing Monday fix​

Published Sun, Apr 7, 2024 · 04:11 PM

China’s policymakers have always been vigilant of currency pressure which can spill over to local stocks and bonds, despite the fact that the country’s export engine would benefit from a weaker yuan. PHOTO: REUTERS
Yuan

TRADERS will keep a closer eye than usual on Monday (Apr 8) on China’s daily yuan reference rate, looking for signs of official pushback after the currency weakened towards a no-go area last week.

After the yuan slipped to within a whisker of its permitted trading range against the US dollar last Wednesday, before a four-day holiday weekend, the so-called fixing may signal whether Beijing will support the currency more vigorously or allow a moderate depreciation. As a regional currency anchor, any message which triggers yuan volatility can quickly spill over into other markets.

A figure significantly stronger or weaker than 7.0950 per US dollar – broadly the last fixing level – would send respective signals of support or tolerance for a lower yuan, while something close to it would imply that stability is key. China manages its currency onshore by setting a daily reference rate against the US dollar at 9.15am local time, around which it is then permitted to trade in a 2 per cent range.

 

[k1976]

Why record-setting gold prices will fend off headwinds and see 30% more upside, according to famed economist David Rosenberg​

Yuheng Zhan
Mon, April 8, 2024 at 3:14 AM GMT+8·

• Gold poised to hit $3,000 per ounce as upcoming Fed rate cuts occur, top economist David Rosenberg says.
• That implies a potential 30% upside from current levels.
• He says the current rally is impressive because it defies typical macroeconomic challenges like a strong dollar and falling inflation expectations.

While investors have been riding high on a record-breaking stock market, their favorite safe haven has also reached new peaks.

Gold prices reached a historic $2,328.7 per ounce last week, and one economist says the momentum could carry the yellow metal to $3,000 before the next business cycle shift — a 30% increase from current levels.

That's according to famed economist David Rosenberg, the president of Rosenberg Research. He said in a recent note that the latest gold run is "especially impressive," because it not only surpassed bitcoin and every major currency, but also overcame typical macro headwinds that often depress its value.

"The rise in the gold price has come at a time of dollar strength, falling inflation expectations, and during which the Fed has moved market expectations toward a 'higher for longer' conviction. All those developments would typically hurt the gold price, but it's forged ahead regardless," his team wrote in the note.

But before plunging into the hype around bullion's future, it's worth peeling back what's behind the recent surge.

 

[k1976]

Strong demand​

Rosenberg and his team said the major driver of the latest highs wasn't so much on the supply side — which has been steady in recent years — but rather on the demand side, thanks to central banks' reembrace of it as a reserve asset.

With the Chinese yuan losing its grip as the world's second reserve currency, and as nations like Japan, Russia, Turkey, and Poland fear overreliance on US dollars, many have turned to gold for security as they weathered idiosyncratic economic risks.

"After divesting from gold in the early part of the century (physically backed reserves were oh so passé), central banks are once again building up their gold holdings, and at scale," he said, adding that central banks bought 361 tonnes of gold in the third quarter of 2023, a turnaround from -77 tonnes in 2022's same period.

They also found gold shines more in emerging markets like India and China, while Western investors lag behind as high interest rates and booming stock prices dim lower-yielding gold's allure.

Besides, rising industrial usage especially within the highly active electronics sector, is another price pusher.

"The boom in circuitry manufacturing as producers work around the clock to meet the insatiable asset for AI-related models is certainly a tailwind for physical gold demand that will not disappear anytime soon," the note said.

 

[k1976]

Fears over uncertainties​

Rosenberg also attributed gold's recent rally to global geopolitical risks and unpredictable macroeconomic outlook.

That the direction of travel for international relations toward greater militarization, confrontation, and polarization is difficult to argue against, and the risk hedging features of gold price have risen in importance as a result," he said.

On the monetary side, he said — with the US debt-to-GDP ratio hitting 120%, and servicing costs escalating — investors are boosting gold holdings amid uncertainty over election outcomes and the looming possibility of a fiscal crisis.

 

[k1976]

​

Next stop: $3,000​

As gold's steadfast momentum persists, Rosenberg anticipates another 15% upside with a potential 30% in play as central banks begin to cut rates. He cites the precious metal's historically negative correlation with gold prices.


The economist laid out two scenarios, both at which arrive at the conclusion that gold has further to rise: a "soft landing" and a typical bear market.

In a "soft landing" scenario, assuming global real interest rates return to their pre-2000 averages—higher than the post-GFC stagnation era—this would lead the US dollar to drop by approximately 12% and push up gold prices by about 10%.

But if a recession hits the economy—with global real interest rates reverting to their 2014-2024 average, stock markets stabilizing, and the dollar depreciating by around 8%—the upside for gold is more like 15%, putting it in the $2,500 range.

Rosenberg Research's gold model forecasts a 10-15% upside when easing startsSource: Haver Analytics, Rosenberg Research

"Putting those observations together with our modeling exercise tells us that downside risk to the gold price is limited, but there is a lot more room to rise. It's far more likely that gold reaches $3,000 per ounce than falls back to $1,500," he said, adding that rising geopolitical tensions would further drive gold prices higher

 

[k1976]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Is-100-Oil-Within-Reach.amp.html

Is $100 Oil Within Reach?​

By Editorial Dept - Apr 05, 2024, 10:00 AM CDT
A few weeks ago, when WTI crude was trading just below $80, I wrote here that I was about to break with my usual, contrarian trading style and establish a long-term long position in oil after a gain of around ten percent since the beginning of February. Normally, if something has climbed that far that fast, I start to look for a pivot point; a level at which a correction or consolidation will come. Last month, however, the more I looked at the fundamental factors influencing oil, the more convinced I became that it was heading higher still. I was right, but the question now that we are through the psychologically important $85 level is, "what next?".

As I said, my natural inclination would be to sell something when the three-month chart looks like the one above. Commodities tend to correct, not least because of the invisible hand that comes from the relationship between price, supply, and demand.

When the price of a commodity climbs consistently like that, it encourages increased supply and damps down demand, pushing prices lower.

However, the relationship is not set in stone, nor is it immune to other influences; and those other influences suggest that despite a strong start to the year, oil is still heading higher.

The effect of demand for oil on price is not absolute; it is relative. If, for example, demand is recovering from a low and normalizing as it is now, it is less price sensitive than it might otherwise be. The additional demand in that situation…

 

[k1976]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/digita...amid-shock-inflation-warning/?sh=217138f15a5f

Issues ‘Incredible’ Bitcoin Price Prediction Amid Shock Inflation Warning​

Billy Bambrough
Senior Contributor
I write about how bitcoin, crypto and blockchain can change the world.




Apr 7, 2024,08:15am EDT
BitcoinBTC 0.0% has defied its fiercest critics with a barnstorming price rally over the last few months (and could now be in for its biggest month ever).

The bitcoin price has topped $70,000 per bitcoin, up from lows of $15,000 at the end of 2022, with "leaks" this week sparking wild speculation of a Wall Street price game-changer.

 

[k1976]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68757080.amp


$120 Oil on Table liao?
买定离手，kym BOSS John？

 

[k1976]

RBNZ seen pushing back against bets on early interest-rate cuts​

Published Mon, Apr 8, 2024 · 06:21 AM

Central banks globally are focused on how quickly inflation is slowing and when they can begin easing. PHOTO: BLOOMBERG
New Zealand


NEW Zealand’s central bank may this week push back against investor bets that interest-rate cuts are coming, even though the economy has slumped into a double-dip recession.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.5 per cent for a sixth straight meeting on Wednesday (Apr 10) in Wellington, according to all 15 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. They expect policymakers to stress the need for rates to stay restrictive for a prolonged period to tame inflation.

“Markets have taken a more aggressive view on the timing and extent of OCR cuts. Those expectations will be disappointed this time around,” said Kelly Eckhold, chief New Zealand economist at Westpac Banking in Auckland. “There is little to support the idea that interest rates can be cut much earlier than the RBNZ previously assumed.”

 

[k1976]

The central bank in February projected it will not start easing policy until 2025, citing concerns that record immigration will add to demand. Since then, data showed the economy slid back into recession in the second half of 2023, prompting investors to fully price in a pivot to rate cuts in the third quarter of this year.

The RBNZ will release on Wednesday’s decision at 2 pm local time. It is a policy review rather than a full Monetary Policy Statement, so the bank will not publish fresh economic forecasts or hold a news conference with governor Adrian Orr.

Most economists expect the first rate cut will occur in the fourth quarter, although some see one as early as August. Westpac and ANZ Bank do not see cuts starting until early 2025.

 

[k1976]

 

[k1976]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ne...ws-story/b4bbe37a58b5f41657e189b03547095e?amp

Robust rise in housing finance through February as new borrowers defy interest rate pain​

Even as household budgets come under pressure, tens of thousands took on additional debt in February, new data shows.

Jack Quail

less than 2 min read
April 8, 2024 - 11:52AM

Demand in Australia’s housing market remained robust through February with the value of new home loan commitments climbing even as the effects of the Reserve Bank’s recent run of rate hikes continue to flow through the economy.

The value of new loans written rose 1.5 per cent in February to $26.4bn, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Monday, falling slightly short of the 2 per cent increase analysts had forecast.

The increase comes even as house prices pushed higher as a result of a post-pandemic surge in migration, underpinning increased demand and an anaemic pipeline of new housing construction, reducing supply.

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• Finance
• Economy
• Australian Economy

Robust rise in housing finance through February as new borrowers defy interest rate pain​

Even as household budgets come under pressure, tens of thousands took on additional debt in February, new data shows.
Jack Quail

less than 2 min read
April 8, 2024 - 11:52AM
NCA NewsWire

2 comments



01:00
Monday, April 8 | Top stories | From the Newsroom

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Demand in Australia’s housing market remained robust through February with the value of new home loan commitments climbing even as the effects of the Reserve Bank’s recent run of rate hikes continue to flow through the economy.
The value of new loans written rose 1.5 per cent in February to $26.4bn, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Monday, falling slightly short of the 2 per cent increase analysts had forecast.
The increase comes even as house prices pushed higher as a result of a post-pandemic surge in migration, underpinning increased demand and an anaemic pipeline of new housing construction, reducing supply.

Borrowers still entered the housing market in droves despite pressures facing household budgets. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Christian Gilles

The value of new loan commitments to owner-occupiers was the primary driver of the increase, rising 1.6 per cent across the month, and 9.1 per cent over the year, the seasonally adjusted figures showed.

Even as still-high inflation and the RBA’s rates policy crimp household budgets, the pipeline of new entrants into the housing market also remained robust.

New loan commitments to first-home buyers rose a solid 4.3 per cent in February, and up 13.2 per cent on the year, the figures showed.
The strong gain brought the number of new loan commitments for first home buyers to 9377 across the month, following a 5.6 per cent in January.

 

[k1976]

https://www.mining.com/web/surging-gold-in-vietnam-spurs-angst-over-smuggling/

Surging gold in Vietnam spurs angst over smuggling​

Bloomberg News | April 7, 2024 | 8:47 pm Markets Asia Gold

Da Lat, Vietnam. Stock image.
Stabilizing the gold market has become a pressing issue for Vietnam with smugglers taking advantage of higher local prices to slip in the precious metal, leading to exchange rate distortions and weakness in the dong that’s hurting the economy.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and members of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council are among top authorities who have been urging for solutions in recent months. The price gap of the metal locally over the international rate must be narrowed “to avoid adverse developments,” Chinh said last week as he ordered the central bank to step up measures to calm the market.

 

[k1976]

The Gold Market Hunts for Answers Behind Bullion’s Sudden Surge​

• Gravity defying rally has confused seasoned analysts
• Gold prices have surged since February to new all-time highs

Photographer: Chalinee Thirasupa/Bloomberg
By Mark Burton, Jack Ryan, and Yvonne Yue Li
April 7, 2024 at 11:00 PM GMT+8

Gold’s scorching run to an all-time high may seem easy to explain from a distance, given the fractious geopolitical climate and murky outlook for the global economy.

The precious metal is famously seen as a “safe haven,” and the general view is that bullion prices should rise when interest rates fall — which many investors expect will happen later this year.

And yet. Take a closer look, and it’s far from clear: why is gold suddenly rising right now?
https://www.bloomberg.com/tips/

 

[k1976]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.af...h-inflation-figures-expected-to-edge-upwards/

Poll shows Egypt's March inflation figures expected to edge upwards​

By Rédaction Africanews
with agencies
Last updated: 08/04/2024

• 
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Inflation in Egypt is forecast to have increased in March as prices in the country adjust to a currency devaluation and an interest rate hike early in the month, followed by a fuel price increase.

This according to a poll organised by the news agency Reuters, which showed that annual urban consumer inflation is expected to increase by 0.6 per cent to 36.3 per cent, according to a median forecast by 12 analysts.

Inflation had been declining from September's record high of 38.0 per cent but unexpectedly surged again in February.

The government’s austerity measures are part of its agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Last month, Egypt signed an expanded $8 billion financial support package with the IMF after more than two years of chronic foreign currency shortage.

It came as the central bank said it would allow the Egyptian pound to trade freely, which saw the currency plummet to about 49.5 to the dollar from 30.85 pounds.

The bank also raised its overnight interest rates by 600 basis points in a bid to stabilise the economy.

The state statistics agency, CAPMAS, is due to release the March inflation data on Monday.

Egypt’s economy has been hit hard by years of government austerity, the Covid-19 pandemic, fallout from the war in Ukraine, and more recently, the war in Gaza.

 

[k1976]

China’s Latest Investment Frenzy Sparks Wild Swings in Gold ETF​

• China Asset Management’s ETF premium has surged over 30%
• Firm says trading halt meant to protect investor interests

By Charlotte Yang
April 8, 2024 at 10:30 AM GMT+8
Updated on
April 8, 2024 at 11:56 AM GMT+8

An exchange-traded fund that owns gold companies has become the latest target of frenzied trading in China as investors pile into corners of the market seen as resilient to the country’s economic challenges.

Trading for the ChinaAMC CSI SH-SZ-HK Gold Industry Equity ETF was halted until 10:30 a.m Monday local time, in order to protect investors’ interests, China Asset Management Co. said in a statement Monday. It was the second trading suspension for the product since last Tuesday.