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Myanmar’s Ruling Party Signals Defeat as Suu Kyi Calls for Calm Chris Blake and Philip Heijmans
November 9, 2015 — 1:20 AM HKT Updated on November 9, 2015 — 6:53 PM HKT
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Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar's opposition leader and chairperson of the National League for Democracy.
Photographer: Dario Pignatelli/Bloomberg
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- USDP co-chair says party lost more seats than it won
- Victory by Suu Kyi's NLD would end decades of military control
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Myanmar’s ruling party signaled that it may be facing defeat in Sunday’s election to the National League for Democracy led by Aung San Suu Kyi, who told jubilant supporters anticipating an historic victory to remain calm as they awaited official results.
QuickTakeMyanmar’s Transition
The ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party likely lost more seats than it won nationally, Htay Oo, co-chair of the USDP, said in an interview aired by 7 Day Daily local media. Already several key ruling party figures acknowledged defeat. Shwe Mann, the former USDP chairman booted from that position earlier this year in an internal party revolt, conceded. President Thein Sein has yet to comment on the election.
Initial results began trickling in on Monday, showing the NLD picking up the first 12 of the 45 seats tallied for Yangon, the party’s stronghold, though it may be days or weeks before a clear outcome of the election emerges.
"We must cautiously walk forward," Suu Kyi told supporters gathered outside her NLD party’s Yangon headquarters Monday. "Stay peaceful and calm. The winner must be humble and avoid actions that can offend others. Real victory must be for the country, not for a group or individuals."
The spirit of NLD supporters was running high as some 10,000 backers braved heavy rain and danced into the night Sunday sure that a victory -- delayed 25 years by a stolen election -- was just around the corner. Thousands returned to NLD headquarters on Monday to wait for results to start appearing on the election commission’s website.
Suu Kyi, 70, and her party are the longtime foils to the generals who ruled Myanmar from a coup in 1962 until 2011, when they handed power to their political arm after a vote tainted by allegations of fraud and boycotted by the opposition. Her party swept to victory in a landslide 1990 election -- the nation’s last widely contested poll -- only to have the generals ignore the results and plunge Myanmar into another generation of repression and isolation.
[h=3]Opening Industries[/h]Since taking power, President Thein Sein, a member of the former junta, and his government have opened industries such as energy exploration, banking and telecommunications to foreign participation in a bid to bring Myanmar out of economic isolation. Foreign direct investment, led by spending on infrastructure and low-cost manufacturing, surged to $8.1 billion in the fiscal year ended in March, more than 20 times the 2010 level. That jump helped annual economic growth average more than 7 percent since that year. The kyat weakened Monday to a three-week low of 1,288 per dollar after the election.
Suu Kyi has signaled that she would continue the government’s investor-friendly policy and has pledged to improve rule-of-law in the country to better foster investment.
“We do think that the NLD’s victory will provide clarity to foreign
investors as long as it holds and the military/USDP continue to respect the
results,” said Andrew Wood, head of Asia Country Risk at BMI Research.
Thein Sein said before the vote that the military and the government would accept the outcome should the ruling party lose and work with the opposition to ensure a stable transition. Even if the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party were ousted, the military would still retain a significant role in politics because it’s guaranteed 25 percent of seats in parliament as well as control of key ministries under a constitution written by the departing junta.
[h=3]Military Influence[/h]Even if her party wins, Suu Kyi would be barred from becoming president because her children are foreign nationals. She has repeatedly said she plans to find a way to lead the government should her party win, and that the constitution says nothing about someone being “above the president.”
The voting, monitored by thousands of international observers who traveled to Myanmar, appeared to have gone smoothly Sunday, with no reports of violence or visible fraud. Before the vote, the election commission acknowledged that errors on the registration lists were widespread, and it could only guarantee that the lists were 30 percent accurate. It had earlier purged the voter lists of many Muslims, including most of the minority Rohingya, whom rights groups have warned are at risk of genocide.
[h=3]‘Step Forward’[/h]"While these elections were an important step forward, we recognize that they were far from perfect," U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Sunday in Washington. "There remain important structural and systemic impediments to the realization of full democratic and civilian government."
The vote is being closely watched in neighboring China and India, which both share extensive borders with the country and are vying for influence as Myanmar opens its economy. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi sees Myanmar as India’s economic gateway to Southeast Asia and backed a plan for trans-national highways and railways that would pass through Myanmar to Thailand and markets beyond.
For China, the country is a key part of President Xi Jinping’s effort to rebuild ancient trade routes to Europe and offers a way to reduce China’s dependence on oil shipped through the Strait of Malacca. China has already financed construction of a natural gas pipeline and oil pipeline that span the country, linking China’s Yunnan province to the Bay of Bengal, where it can load oil and gas from the Middle East.
National League for Democracy party supporters cheer as they gather outside the party headquarters in Yangon, Myanmar, on Sunday, Nov. 8, 2015. Photographer: Dario Pignatelli/Bloomberg
“China supports the country’s stability and long-term development. China is willing to provide assistance to the election upon request,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said.
Suu Kyi was finally able to vote in the nation her father -- independence hero Aung San -- freed from British rule, after spending the past two general elections under house arrest on the orders of the junta. She was greeted by hundreds of cheering supporters when she arrived to vote at a school in Yangon, the country’s biggest city. Dressed in red -- the color of her party -- she emerged minutes later with a finger dyed by purple ink, before being ushered through a crush of reporters without making any comments.
‘“I believe that there will be change if the NLD wins,” said Khine Nyein Aye, 37, of Insein township in northern Yangon, who was waiting to see if Suu Kyi would speak. ‘‘I think the NLD will win,” she said. “I even now have goose bumps.”
Though more than 90 parties were competing to represent the Southeast Asian nation’s 52 million people in parliament, the vote boiled down to two key choices: Suu Kyi’s party and its message of change, or Thein Sein’s military-backed party and its
promise of stability.
Should neither major win a majority, ethnic parties that are expected to do well in border areas might hold the key to determining who becomes president. Myanmar’s president is chosen in a parliamentary vote in which the upper house, lower house and military appointees each put forward a candidate. That vote isn’t expected until early next year.
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