Make your Margin Prediction Here - Hougang By Elections

[GoldenDragon]

That's good try but as I have said, Sebastian being a Chinese educated person, won't be fooled that easily. They would rather let WP face the music itself.
Goh Meng Seng

Why are you so obsessed with this English educated vs Chinese educated matter? Seb, being Chinese ed won't be fooled that easily? Goodness me! You implying English ed fooled easily? Where's your brain?

Let me make this statement. From my experience, it is so much harder to compromise an English ed chap. So much easier to compromise a Chinese helicopter. I know. I 'converted' many helicopters.

 

[scroobal]

Summary of Margin Prediction thus far:

WP to win. Old Jalan Besar Stadium Ah Huat Betting Rules Apply.
scroobal: 30%
GD: 36%
Zihau: 33%
Chuckyworld : 39%
Zeddy: 29%
Twitseng:31%
po2wq:32.2%
Yellowsrse: 31%
Rusty: 47%
TFBH: 27%
Cunnilaubu: 33.1%
Myfoot123: 40%
Deepblue0911: 24%
Djent: 17%
NoNewGood: 63%
3M: 20%
Perspective:24%
CakeLEngKia: 22%
Kingrant: 33%
GMS: 20.6%
Zombie 37.6%
Char_Azn: 16%


PAP to Win

 

[dumbz]

Hi Mr Goh, just curious, why would a 3 corner fight benefit wp?

 

[zhihau]

Summary of Margin Prediction thus far:

bro,
paiseh, 66.84 - 33.16 is more like 33.68 (2 d.p) or 33.7 (3 s.f)
can help edit? :p:p:p
me mum taught me to be courteous, must say "thanks, bro"

 

[sengkang]

sengkang: WP 65%, Papaya 32%, spoilt 3%

 

[TwitSeng]

Summary of Margin Prediction thus far:

WP to win. Old Jalan Besar Stadium Ah Huat Betting Rules Apply.
scroobal: 30%
GD: 36%
Zihau: 33%
Chuckyworld : 39%
Zeddy: 29%
Twitseng:31%
po2wq:32.2%
Yellowsrse: 31%
Rusty: 47%
TFBH: 27%
Cunnilaubu: 33.1%
Myfoot123: 40%
Deepblue0911: 24%
Djent: 17%
NoNewGood: 63%
3M: 20%
Perspective:24%
CakeLEngKia: 22%
Kingrant: 33%
GMS: 20.6%
Zombie 37.6%
Char_Azn: 16%


PAP to Win

maybe it is also better to note what the forummers have predicted as well...like this no need refer back in the thread...

 

[GagakHitam]

PAP: 45%
WP: 55%

 

[wwabbit]

My prediction, 62-38 in WP's favour (24% margin)

Hi Mr Goh, just curious, why would a 3 corner fight benefit wp?

He thinks that the third party will draw more votes from PAP than from WP.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

I'm glad my margin is close to Perspective. That guy can read the ground like an open book.

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

It will benefit WP because whatever votes WP loses due to the various reasons said, it will go to the 3rd contestant and not PAP.

Thus, even if WP gets only 48%, it will still win Hougang if the 3rd party gets more than 5%..i.e. PAP getting less than 48%.

Goh Meng Seng

Hi Mr Goh, just curious, why would a 3 corner fight benefit wp?

 

[myfoot123]

PAP getting less than 48%.

Goh Meng Seng

Doesn't sound logical that you benchmark 48% for PAP, you so confident PAP maximum % is 48%? I think 40% is already given too much credit to PAP.

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

Never say never in Politics. If you do your sums, 35% PAP hardcore, WP 40% hardcore (this is already 10% above national average), then it would mean that there is about 25% middle ground. They could swing either way.

PAP was overly confident in Anson back in 1981 and see what happens? The swing is over 30%!

Goh Meng Seng

Doesn't sound logical that you benchmark 48% for PAP, you so confident PAP maximum % is 48%? I think 40% is already given too much credit to PAP.

 

[3_M]

It will benefit WP because whatever votes WP loses due to the various reasons said, it will go to the 3rd contestant and not PAP.

Thus, even if WP gets only 48%, it will still win Hougang if the 3rd party gets more than 5%..i.e. PAP getting less than 48%.

Goh Meng Seng

Doesn't make any difference to WP. People who will vote for the third candidate are voters who will spoil their vote anyway.

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

You are assuming that all these people will spoil their votes but that is the most optimistic view in this case.

They might just change their votes. You must understand that voters nowadays are more discerning. GE2011 has reviewed quite a bit on this trend.

The only thing WP members, supporters and apologists should avoid is to be blinded by party loyalty. You have to look at things from wider scope and depth.

Goh Meng Seng

Doesn't make any difference to WP. People who will vote for the third candidate are voters who will spoil their vote anyway.

 

[3_M]

You are assuming that all these people will spoil their votes but that is the most optimistic view in this case.

They might just change their votes. You must understand that voters nowadays are more discerning. GE2011 has reviewed quite a bit on this trend.

The only thing WP members, supporters and apologists should avoid is to be blinded by party loyalty. You have to look at things from wider scope and depth.

Goh Meng Seng

Who says the vote will definitely goes to PAP if there is a last minute change of mind? can't the vote also goes to WP? Nobody knows the exact numbers but we can just look at things from the macros and wider scope as what you advice.

Anyway your theory is nothing original as it had already been discussed widely in the recent Taiwanese PE when there was a 3CF . The pan blue fear it might cause a split. Result shows the third candidate James soong can only garnered votes from people who otherwise might not vote or spoil their votes.

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

If the vote goes to WP, it won't be considered as vote swing already.

I have never said that whatever theory I have put up or the advice for YSL and WP right from the start of Yaw-gate, are original. I even said that's what and how people handle such crisis.


Goh Meng Seng

Who says the vote will definitely goes to PAP if there is a last minute change of mind? can't the vote also goes to WP? Nobody knows the exact numbers but we can just look at things from the macros and wider scope as what you advice.

Anyway your theory is nothing original as it had already been discussed widely in the recent Taiwanese PE when there was a 3CF . The pan blue fear it might cause a split. Result shows the third candidate James soong can only garnered votes from people who otherwise might not vote or spoil their votes.

 

[3_M]

If the vote goes to WP, it won't be considered as vote swing already.

I have never said that whatever theory I have put up or the advice for YSL and WP right from the start of Yaw-gate, are original. I even said that's what and how people handle such crisis.


Goh Meng Seng

Whether it a swing or not is another matter. On what premises do you assert that WP benefits more than PAP in a 3CF.

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

What premise? LOL! Because PAP is just getting the basic hardcore supporting votes of 35%! Will any 3rd contestant get these hardcore PAP supporter votes when WP cannot get them? You have to talk abit of sense here lah!

Goh Meng Seng

Whether it a swing or not is another matter. On what premises do you assert that WP benefits more than PAP in a 3CF.

 

[myfoot123]

Aiya, I don't care already, as long as PNG ENG HUAT wins by 1% or 99% there is one less white parrot in parliament to worry about. Png Eng Huat must win is all that matters to Singaporeans. That is why we see all oppositions so united this time round because they share the same concern that HG must not fall in to the hands of PAP.

The best way to fxxk PAP backside is to atttend WP rally in the coming week, the rest is up to the voters to decide. If they pick Demon Choo, their conservancy fee sure skyrocket and many town fees have to pay thru their nose. I believe HG residents are wise voters.

 

[3_M]

What premise? LOL! Because PAP is just getting the basic hardcore supporting votes of 35%! Will any 3rd contestant get these hardcore PAP supporter votes when WP cannot get them? You have to talk abit of sense here lah!

Goh Meng Seng

what difference it makes if there is a 3CF vs 2CF? It might be a case that WP get 55 % , PAP 38% and spoil 7%. In a 3CF it may still turnout to be a case WP 55%, PAP 38%, third candidate 5% and spoil 2%. So what your assertion that WP will benefit in a 3CF? The swing from last GE is still constant be it a 3CF or 2CF.