MAS stance is always there. US and Europe is also import a lot from china. Why then do they want their currency to weaken against the yuan? Currency strength is determine by economic growth and government maturity to match global inflation.
Economic growth. If a country A grow faster than country B, naturally the currency of the country A should strengthen over time. Developing country are usually self sufficient at initial stage of growth. As growth pick up, they will need to import talents and technology where it is more costly than exporting low value added electronics and farm products. At one point Malaysia may not have enough resource for themselves. One good example is oil.
Government maturity on global inflation. If every government in the world allow their property to go up 100% in the next 10 years. And our govt allow the prices to stay put. Our people will be happy but (Assuming currency is stable) we will be poorer relative to the world. You need a strong government to implement such unfriendly policies. Weak govt have to make her people happy and as a result make the whole country poorer. Price growth and Appreciating currency is needed to attract investment. If not, nobody will invest in your country if they know their investment is depreciate every year.
In my previous post, I also mention that weak currency only protect inefficient exporters. To up the technology curve, Malaysia need to gradually appreciate its currency to have a balance between not damaging export and gradually making its companies more efficient.
Singapore export almost 70% of global oil rigs and the subsequent repair and maintenance works. But out currency strength against most currencies. Why? Bottom line of competition is still value added and not pricing.
Hope this will give you some in depth thoughts.....
Just sharing what I have learnt from the many people I met.
Cheers,
PH
Hi PH & Investor,
I will share my opinion ; please do not bank on currency appreciation to make a positive return. The Ringgit will never catch up with the SGD unless the two countries merge - wont happen in our lifetime.. Why the Ringgit is weaker is that Malaysia is running a Budget deficit of around 6% of GDP while Singapore has been on much healthier surplus for a much longer time. This is the main driver of fx rates.
Above all else, foreign investors prefer stable currency. Malaysia is blessed with good natural resources to sustain the Ringgit's strength while Singapore is blessed with a good system (from an objective economic point of view, that is). You would have noticed of late both have strengthened against the USD in tandem. 2.4 levels no matter how the USD fluctuated.
So what is positive for investors in Nusajaya then?
1) I will say the relative appreciation of property prices bw Singapore & JB. We can say JB started from its lowest around 3 years ago. It is a laggard vs other parts of Malaysia because of the now-irrelevant political situation that had prevailed for the last dozen years. Interestingly the recent acceleration of JB prop prices has been mirrored by the number of posts in this forum, particularly this year when serious love-making started to happen with the political situation. This appreciation has much more leg to run up, to be sure. (More so than Singapore which is already challenging its own highest). JB is just getting started. But as a word of caution, it is not clear the situation with rental yields as I am trying hard to imagine other than Americans & Students, who else would want to rent in Nusajaya for now? Capital appreciation-wise, I have no doubt.*
2) Property is a hedge against inflation and Malaysia's inflation rate is higher than SIngapore's. Thus prop prices in JB will appreciate faster.
3) Peter Lim (Mr Wilmar, Thomson, MU & McLaren) himself just announced last week his multi-million investment into JB.
4) The MRT to JB and the bullet train to KL - linking KL-JB-Singapore. much like the megapolis of the Pearl River Delta in China.
5) Singaporeans will always compare a HDB vs a freehold beautiful house in JB. This will help maintain the JB prices.
6) I have not yet even mentioned Legoland, Premium outlet, Medini, SILC, Healthcare, Pinewoods, EduCity etc
*We have to take a long term horizon. I read in an early working paper of Iskandar by the authorities themselves & experts to take a view of like 5 to 10 years. Medini will drive Nusajaya. Of course we are enjoying the appreciation now based on expectations. Also as Singaporeans and Malaysians (working in Singapore) age, they would want to live in a relaxing place like JB where the money goes further and have more healthcare facilities).
Is good to share opinions and honestly. Naysayers and proponents both have contributions.