Is the Pendulum swinging back?

[scroobal]

I think many would have heard about a series of decisions that is coming out from Ministry of Manpower. The series of measures and cuts across the various sectors are significant. The first to go was the what one would call the sacred cow - the 2 year EPEC (Employment Pass Eligibility Certificate) which was first introduced in 1992 ( yes 20 years ago) by no less than our Swiss Prime Minister - Goh Chok Tong. It is the first to go in Dec 2011 and it is this particular visa that is world renown from the Philippines to the London. It allows a Uni grad or a skilled individual to arrive and remain in Singapore for up to 2 years. As you know nearly all Indians and Filipinos are university graduates. LAlso popular with the Ang Mos an known lovingly as the "whore visa" as it allows their girl and boy friend to come in.

In July 2012, another series of measures followed and on 1st September even more cuts. There is a lot of talk and speculation about the impact and the common possibilities;

- significant impact on local small and medium enterprises

- perceptible reduction in overcrowding in lifts, MRT, pedestrian and road traffic

- drop in house and car prices

More importantly a definite drop in GDP ?

It looks like the cuts are driven by one single factor - the spectre of losing East Coast and even maybe BT. Joo Chiat is expected to be absorbed.

 

[ChaoPappyPoodle]

The PAPzis do need new citizens' votes and it is this area that they will concentrate on for GE2016. While overall FT numbers may not increase as much as previously, the number of new citizens should see an increase.

 

[Dreamer1]

Yes,the only trump card that I can see PAP is now left with is the number of new citizens,they are not wrong to think that new citizens vote more for PAP than the opposition.After PM Lee not too successful chat with the popular bloggers,the next step is a 3 year+ (Project 2016) project to convert more PRs into Singaporeans,with the added bonus that this help to gain some votes from the unhappy Singapore citizens.

 

[aurvandil]

Don't hold your breath ...

The latest pop numbers show that Singapore Total Pop expanded by around 80k. In the minds of the PAP, they have therefore kept their election promise to reduce the immigration numbers. It is however unlikely to have an significant impact on the congestion on our infrastructure. This is because as is, the infrastructure already cannot cope with our current population. It will take an estimated 5 to 10 years to implement planned upgrades to catch up with our current population. Assuming an annual immigration rate of 80k, the population will increase by 400k in 5 years and 800k in 10 years. This would largely negate the positive impact of the infrastructure upgrades.

On GDP, the previous policy of 120k to 150k immigration per year yielded GDP growth of 8% to 10%. The more modest immigration of about 80k immigration per year should see GDP growth slide to between 4% to 6% which would mean slower growth in tax revenue and fees.

They are therefore not joking when they are saying that there is a need to raise taxes. This is however not so much as to implement social programs for the good of Singaporeans (who is that naive to believe) but to pay for the infrastructure upgrades which they see as being key to winning back the popular vote.

Still early days yet on where the tax burden will fall. My guess is that they will continue to maintain a favorable tax regime to attract high net worth millionaires to base in Singapore. It is unlikely to come from citizen middle class as it is this group which the PAP hopes to win back. The most likely group would be middle income FT (the much hated Chinese/Indian/Pinoy PMETs) who have come here to work. The current trend of getting this group to pay more for everything will continue as there is no shortage of such immigrants wanting to come to Singapore.

In July 2012, another series of measures followed and on 1st September even more cuts. There is a lot of talk and speculation about the impact and the common possibilities;

- significant impact on local small and medium enterprises

- perceptible reduction in overcrowding in lifts, MRT, pedestrian and road traffic

- drop in house and car prices

More importantly a definite drop in GDP ?

It looks like the cuts are driven by one single factor - the spectre of losing East Coast and even maybe BT. Joo Chiat is expected to be absorbed.

 

[ChaoPappyPoodle]

If the PAPzis want to attract PRs to become citizens and new citizens then why would they put any new tax burder largely on this group? :*:

It is the middle and low income Singaporeans that will take the biggest hit with any tax increases. This has always been the case in Singapore. When it comes to the PAPzis taxation may not be a direct tax but hidden in HDB pricing and other types of fees. The PAPzis being fascists, have a mindset that has always been to tax the low and middle income group. They will rightly feel that with the mainstream media behind all their spurious policies that they will be able to package any tax hikes as being necessary, not unduly large and has been put into place equitably.

 

[aurvandil]

The plan appears to be to charge higher fees/taxes if you are PR/EP. If however you take the plunge and get a pink IC, you get to enjoy the benefits of paying the lower fees/taxes that Singaporeans enjoy. We should therefore expect to see a fall in the PR/EP population and a rise in the new citizen population.

If the PAPzis want to attract PRs to become citizens and new citizens then why would they put any new tax burder largely on this group? :*:

 

[ChaoPappyPoodle]

There have been reports from previous years where PRs get better subsidies for medication etc from polyclinics. The entire civil service is horrendously manned and supervised. There has never been a policy that will be implemented by the entire civil service due to the poor work ethics of the bosses there. This will not detract from what MOM has set out to do but one will always be able to find loopholes and contradictory practices to the extent that where one may lose out on one end, there may be benefits at the other end.

The greatest disbenefit to PRs is that their male children will have to take NS responsibility. Although there are many ways around this obligation the thought alone has made many shun citizenship. We should also not forget that PRs and new citizens from India, China and Pinoyland will have US, Australia and Canada as their eventual destination - at least that is where the really talented ones want to go to. Only the middle to low level PMETs from these countries see Singapore as a final destination.

The PAPzis policies are fraught with deficiencies and are a one-way avenue to futility and destruction of the countries social and cultural fabric. Only short-term gains can be had but the short term ills are tremendous and the long term ills are even worse.

Back to the topic of lowering FT inflow, the general numbers will still be huge given that our public services' infrastructure has already hit its maximum. and beyond. Further, the number of PRs are too small for the PAPzis to use as a wealth-generating source. If I were the PAPzis I will rather go with the long used and successful method of taxing the middle and low income Singaporeans. They form a sizeable portion of the populace and even a small increment will help to reach their revenue goals. Do take note that taxes can be hidden in property taxes, rental income etc.

Even a policy to tax property taxes and income from property rental can be painted by the mainstream media as being against PRs - to soothe Singaporeans even though a larger number of Singaporeans will face similar burdens. The mainstream media can twist and turn anything negative into something positive or even spin something that doesn't exist into something real and threatening.

 

[saratogas]

PAP can always assign die-hard PAP dogs to move into Oppostion wards to win back votes...

 

[zhihau]

as more young affluent couples move into telok kurau area, JC SMC is set to fall. are the rambutans ready to be harvested near Sri Temasek?

 

[tanwahp]

It looks like the cuts are driven by one single factor - the spectre of losing East Coast and even maybe BT.

On a separate note, why BT?

I think the next hotspots after EC will be:

- Marine Parade, if Nicole Seah returns with a stronger NSP A team. Eg some of those who contested Chua Chu Kang, Mountbatten.

- Tampines which WP has declared they will contest and NSP is likely to give way like it did in Moulmein Kallang.

 

[Dreamer1]

as more young affluent couples move into telok kurau area, JC SMC is set to fall. are the rambutans ready to be harvested near Sri Temasek?

Whether JC remains SMC would be acid test for the state of mind of PAP leadership.

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

In July 2012, another series of measures followed and on 1st September even more cuts. There is a lot of talk and speculation about the impact and the common possibilities;

- significant impact on local small and medium enterprises

- perceptible reduction in overcrowding in lifts, MRT, pedestrian and road traffic

- drop in house and car prices

More importantly a definite drop in GDP ?

It looks like the cuts are driven by one single factor - the spectre of losing East Coast and even maybe BT. Joo Chiat is expected to be absorbed.

All those wards which is above 40% for oppositions are possible losses for PAP. Especially those which are 43% or above. This is based on Aljunied's experience, jumping from about 44% to 54%. These includes Tampines (borderline), Marine Parade, East Coast and Bishan Toa Payoh.

If there are no three corner fights, most probably all these GRCs will be won by opposition parties in the next GE. However, as I have mentioned before, due to WP's ambition, we will end up with 3 corner fights all over the place. Most probably, retaliation will result in 3 corner fight in East Coast as well. In the end, it will be status quo.

As I have noticed, activities organized by PAP in these wards, especially for East Coast, Tampines and Bishan Toa Payoh, are having more and more empty chairs. I just hope that everything goes well and we will really have a multi-party parliament.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[Dreamer1]

Goh Meng Seng,
2016 is more than 3 years away,how can you know that WP will engage in 3 corner fight all over the place?
My guess is that will really have not only a multi-party parliament in 2016,but an alternative government new PM as well,but your guess is as good as mine.

 

[kingrant]

I do feel a sense of an easing of the congestion on our MRT lines. However, it is hard to be sure because we will never know how we could have been if the cheap imports were never let in at such a rate. More MRT lines are criss-crossing one another, and the load could have been built up by the lines pouring out the contents into one another at peak times.

Still, I look fwd to another 2 GRCs going down next GE, and the sentiments have more to do with not letting one Party have all the say.

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

Frankly speaking, I do hope I am wrong and you are right.

Goh Meng Seng

Goh Meng Seng,
2016 is more than 3 years away,how can you know that WP will engage in 3 corner fight all over the place?
My guess is that will really have not only a multi-party parliament in 2016,but an alternative government new PM as well,but your guess is as good as mine.

 

[tanwahp]

Frankly speaking, I do hope I am wrong and you are right.

Goh Meng Seng

I don't there will be many 3 corner fights, as opposition parties will think twice before going into 3-corner fight with WP. Most would rather withdraw.

Of course, you and some others may not see that as healthy either. WP may monopolize the other camp of Singapore. But that is another debate for another day.

 

[cunnilaubu]

After the last GE, we are seeing the PAP making adjustments, albeit in small steps.

Singaporeans is beginning to realize the effect of the fall of a GRC and the additional opposition MPs have on the govt.

I can't see a huge swing back to the PAP no matter what they do. In fact, I think the people will be encouraged by any additional changes made from now till 2016 and be more adventurous.

As for WP, for once I agree with GMS. If WP wants to continue to growth, inevitably, it has to contest in more seats. This will make horse trading very difficult. 3 corner fights will become the norm, if not in 2016, certainly in future GEs. Unless, WP suffers heavy defeat in 2016.

 

[Summerbee]

However, as I have mentioned before, due to WP's ambition, we will end up with 3 corner fights all over the place.

Goh Meng Seng

Dear Mr Goh, I do not agree that WP is the most ambitious party, nor should they be held responsible for any three-corner fights. WP has been very careful in expanding their numbers and have largely confined to the Eastern part of Singapore.

1. In the last election, NSP fielded the most numbers of candidates among all the opposition parties, more than WP.

2. In the last election, NSP geographical coverage ranged from Pioneer/Choa Chu Kang/Jurong in the far west to Marine Parade/Tampines at the other end. There was a saying that NSP stands for North-South-East-West Party.

3. In the last Presidential Election, different NSP candidates fanned out to support different presidential candidates, participating in multi-corner fights among themselves, while this was not seen from the WP ranks.

 

[tanwahp]

Dear Mr Goh, I do not agree that WP is the most ambitious party, nor should they be held responsible for any three-corner fights. WP has been very careful in expanding their numbers and have largely confined to the Eastern part of Singapore.

1. In the last election, NSP fielded the most numbers of candidates among all the opposition parties, more than WP.

2. In the last election, NSP geographical coverage ranged from Pioneer/Choa Chu Kang/Jurong in the far west to Marine Parade/Tampines at the other end. There was a saying that NSP stands for North-South-East-West Party.

3. In the last Presidential Election, different NSP candidates fanned out to support different presidential candidates, participating in multi-corner fights among themselves, while this was not seen from the WP ranks.

There is no point harping about NSP's stance since Goh has left NSP.

You are right that he participated in the PE by helping Tan Kin Lian. As we know, TKL came in 4th and the votes he took could have led to a Tan Cheng Bock victory if added to TCB's votes. In other words, TKL was a vote-splitter.

There is nothing wrong with helping anyone anywhere but when Goh brings out how unhealthy 3-corner fights are, there is a mismatch of words with his deeds and the issue of his integrity arises. I know I am touching a raw nerve here, but laying out the facts as they are. He needs to pay attention to these double talks if he want to run for GE again.

 

[ChaoPappyPoodle]

GE2011 and PE2011 taught everyone that 3 or more cornered fights was bad for everyone and worse for the worst loser. The worst loser is seen as PAPzi agent. They even lost their deposit, to add to their woes and this has made them the butt of even more jokes.

This then turns the GRC into a problem area for the PAPzis because they will find it difficult to have themselves against more than one alternative party in a GRC fight. With SMCs 3-cornered fights are more likely since all one needs is a single person. But in a GRC, 4-6 have to be grouped for each group, meaning between 8-12 opposition candidates will have to fight it out with a PAPzi GRC team. The PAPzis have created such a lethargic and apathetic political situation for the past 50 years that it is quite impossible to find such a high number of opposition candidates placed within a GRC for the same election, to fight against the PAPzi.

The biggest disappointment at GE2011 was NSP but I don't think it is fair to blame GMS as we are not familiar to what happened and why they were so lethargic in their electioneering at Tampines and what was behind the thinking behind the grouping of their GRC groups.

Back to the topic on hand, the PAPzi is a fascist leaning political party. They will first tax the lower and middle income before PRs and business. Whether GDP drops or not and how it affects Singapore as a whole is arguable and even a ridiculous point for contention. There are more important issues than GDP especially when it is artificial in that it has been boosted by a huge influx of FTs and a ridiculously overpaid civil service.