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Ko Yun-hwa, of the Korea Meteorological Administration, points to seismic waves observed in South Korea, during North Korea’s test of a hydrogen bomb, January 6, 2016. Photo: Reuters
North Korea said on Wednesday it had successfully tested its first hydrogen bomb, dealing a blow to *regional efforts to contain tensions surrounding Pyongyang’s nuclear programme, and drawing condemnation from Beijing.
The claim, which if true would mark significant progress in Pyongyang’s nuclear abilities, triggered condemnation from across the region, and scepticism from some countries over whether the test had been *successful.
Beijing said it had summoned North Korea’s ambassador and “firmly opposed” the test.
“We strongly urge [North Korea] to remain committed to its denuclearisation commitment, and stop taking any actions that would make the situation worse,” foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying (華春瑩) said.
READ MORE – Don’t believe the hype: Nuclear experts remain sceptical about North Korea’s hydrogen bomb claims
She said Beijing had no advance knowledge of the test, but would “make an assessment” of Pyongyang’s claim that it involved a hydrogen bomb. If confirmed, this would be the country’s fourth test of a nuclear bomb.
Its previous trials have been of atomic devices, which are less powerful.
Beijing has condemned each nuclear test and the latest development has put focus on how it will respond this time.
Many diplomats and analysts have said that China played a key role in reining in North Korea’s nuclear ambitions as Beijing’s economic support – and in particular its petroleum exports – provides an important lifeline to Pyongyang.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signs a document authorising the test of a hydrogen bomb. Photo: Reuters
Relations between the ideological allies have cooled since Kim Jong-un took power four years ago. Many analysts put this down to Kim’s authorisation of the third nuclear test, in February 2013, against Beijing’s advice.
Observers said Beijing was likely to respond to the latest test with more stringent measures, such as cooperating with the UN Security Council on another round of sanctions, but possibly not to the extent some countries would hope for due to strategic calculations.
“It’s going to be difficult for China to devise the scale of the sanctions: to impose sanctions without creating instability or even leading to the country’s collapse,” said Cai Jian, a professor of Korean studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.
READ MORE - ‘I see North Korea as one of the most evil, inhuman situations happening on earth’
Halting energy supply, for instance, would cause economic chaos and political instability in North Korea and “China would rather be cautious about it”, Cai said.
Many Chinese analysts have in recent years argued that the *reclusive state has become more of a liability than a useful partner, but Cai said ensuring the political stability of a neighbour remained an important consideration.
“For China, North Korea’s nuclear programme itself does not pose major security threats, but rather it’s the resulting response from the US and Japan, such as enhancing their military deployment in the region, that is causing a headache for Beijing.”
There had been signs that Beijing and Pyongyang were seeking to repair ties in recent months.
In October, Beijing sent one of its most senior officials, Liu Yunshan (劉雲山), to Pyongyang to attend the 70th anniversary of the country’s ruling party. Last month, Pyongyang sent Kim’s favourite pop band, The Moranbong, on a performance trip to Beijing. But the show was cancelled at the last minute.
Yesterday’s test had dealt a blow to such efforts and would halt further high-level exchanges between the two countries, said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing. “We can only do our best, such as to impose sanctions and pick up diplomatic ties when things are better,” Shi said.
But the cold shoulder should go only so far, Shi said. “If our relations became hostile, it would be a threat to China.”
North Korea announced in a statement carried by the country’s official news agency KCNA that it had detonated a miniaturised hydrogen nuclear device at 10am yesterday in a “safe and perfect manner”.
“The test means a higher stage of [North Korea’s] development of nuclear force,” it said.
Kim first claimed the country was in possession of a hydrogen bomb in December, when he visited a historical site known as the birthplace of the country’s domestic armaments industry.
At the time, Washington and some analysts had doubted whether the country had the ability to develop such an advanced weapon. Following yesterday’s test, some nuclear and military experts remained sceptical, saying the detected seismic activity was too small for a hydrogen bomb, or suggesting that the testing was *incomplete.
South Korean President Park Geun-hye, speaking at an emergency meeting of the country’s National Security Council convened immediately after Pyongyang’s announcement, described the test as a “grave provocation”.
“The test is not only a grave provocation to our national security but also a threat to our future ... and a strong challenge to international peace and stability,” she said, calling for strong sanctions on Pyongyang.
South Korea’s defence ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said South Korea’s military had upgraded its alert status and would “take necessary measures” in cooperation with its ally, the United States.
He said the allies had increased their joint surveillance of North Korea’s military activities.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Tokyo would make a “firm response” to North Korea at the UN Security Council.
Additional reporting by Kyodo, Associated Press and Agence France-Presse
Seoul (AFP) - Nuclear experts cast doubt Wednesday on North Korea's claimed first successful test of a miniaturised hydrogen bomb, saying the detected seismic activity suggested a less powerful device.
The announcement followed hints last month by leader Kim Jong-Un that Pyongyang had already developed a hydrogen, or thermonuclear, bomb -- a claim greeted with scepticism by experts at the time.
Crispin Rovere, an Australia-based nuclear policy and arms control specialist, said the 5.1 magnitude tremor detected at the North's Punggye-ri nuclear test site was too small to support Pyongyang?s claim.
"The seismic data that's been received indicates that the explosion is probably significantly below what one would expect from an H-bomb test," Rovere told AFP.
"So initially it seems to be that they've successfully conducted a nuclear test but unsuccessfully completed the second-stage hydrogen explosion," Rovere said.
The test came just two days before Kim Jong-Un's birthday. Analysts said the North's leader had been looking for a major achievement to highlight at a rare ruling party congress scheduled for May -- the first gathering of its kind for 35 years.
"I don't think it was a hydrogen bomb test. The explosion had to be larger if it was a hydrogen bomb test," said Choi Kang, vice president of the Seoul-based Asan Institute for Policy Studies.
"I think they are disguising it as a hydrogen test because Kim Jong-un mentioned it before," Choi said.
A thermonuclear bomb uses fusion in a chain reaction that results in a far more powerful explosion than the fission blast generated by uranium or plutonium alone.
The North has made many unverifiable claims about its nuclear weapons strength, including the ability to strike the US mainland, which most experts dismiss -- at least for now.
In September, however, the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security had raised a red flag over what appeared to be a new "hot cell" facility under construction at the North's main Yongbyon nuclear complex.
- Radiation fears -
Analysts at the think tank said satellite images suggested it could be an isotope separation facility capable of producing tritium -- a key component in the design of thermonuclear weapons.
Bruce Bennett, a senior defence analyst with the Rand Corporation, was also unconvinced by the H-bomb test claim.
"If it were a real H-bomb, the Richter Scale reading should have been about a hundred times more powerful than what we saw, which would have been in the range of seven or so," he told AFP.
Bennett assessed Wednesday's explosion as in the 10-15 kiloton range, just less than the Hiroshima blast in 1945.
He said the fusion element of the explosion may have failed entirely, or the fission element did not operate correctly.
But Bennett said the increasing power of the blasts heightened the prospect of triggering an earthquake and the release of radiation from the underground test site, a source of great concern to Chinese people across the border.
Asked about next steps, Bennett said: "We have to be concerned because he has this separate party congress that he?s planning to do in May, which is a huge political deal."
"And he?s done a test now which most people and most experts in the world will say didn?t work. Is he going to be forced before May to do another test to demonstrate that they can get it to work? And that?s the ultimate instability."
South Korea's National Intelligence Service, which briefed lawmakers after the North's announcement, also said it was unlikely to have been a hydrogen bomb.
A member of the parliamentary intelligence committee who attended the briefing said the NIS had seen no tell-tale signs of an explosion powerful enough to be attributed to an H-bomb.
The North's first two nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009 were of plutonium devices, while the third in 2013 was believed -- though not confirmed -- to have used uranium as its fissile material.
Seong Chai-Ki, senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, said Wednesday's was more likely a boosted fission test -- generally seen as a precursor to a full H-bomb detonation.
"There has been speculation that North Korea would first test its boosted fission weapon rather than going directly to a hydrogen bomb test," Seong told AFP.
Japan planes deployed to collect radioactive material
AFP
January 7, 2016, 12:03 am
Tokyo (AFP) - Japan's defence ministry on Wednesday deployed three planes to collect possible radioactive material following North Korea's claimed hydrogen bomb test, officials said.
"To understand the impact of possible radioactive materials released by the test, Air Self-Defence Force planes have collected dust in the air," Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told a press conference.
"It is currently being sent to the Japan Chemical Analysis Centre," he said, adding that the T4 training planes stayed in Japanese airspace.
Wednesday's nuclear test was the North's fourth after previous ones in 2006, 2009 and 2013, though many experts cast doubt on Pyongyang's claim that it was a successful test of a hydrogen bomb.
They said the seismic activity suggested a less powerful atomic device.
In Vienna, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organisation said the magnitude was very similar to 2013.
But this did not rule out a H-bomb, since the nature of the device could not be determined from seismic data alone.
The organisation said further clues might come from analysis of radionuclides (radioactive particles). But this could take anything from several days to several months, and they might not be detected anyway.
Randy Bell, director of its international data division, said the data Wednesday was very consistent with the 2013 test and the seismic magnitude was the same.
"But to try to ascertain the very particular nature, such as whether this was nuclear or non-nuclear, or which type of nuclear, is not appropriate at this time," he told reporters.
In Tokyo Suga said no abnormal levels of radiation had been detected through monitoring posts across Japan as of early Wednesday evening.
The results collected by the planes are expected to be released on Thursday, an official with Japan's Nuclear Regulation Authority told reporters.
Last month North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un suggested Pyongyang had already developed a hydrogen bomb, though the claim was questioned by international experts.
