Forest City

[Investor888]

Huh? My point is that just because there is a glut it does not mean those who bought or intend to buy sure die. It also depends on what and where you buy, and even why you buy. Is the glut caused by mega mass condo projects? Like I said, if you buy a mega mass condo project it would not be ideal compared to something like the Astaka. And just because mega mass condo projects are selling slow does not mean all other condo projects also sell slow or cannot sell.

When those first birders bought into East Ledang or HH, semis were RM 600k plus. People say they sure die cos nothing is in place. Absolutely nothing. Not even Highways or shops.. factories? No

One of my customers sold 3 semis at RM 2.5m. bought at RM 600k when people think he was crazy.

Now he thinks people are crazy not to buy.

The future of Iskandar is bright, super bright if u go for 10-20 year horizons. Don't be short sighted like 90% of Sinkies.

 

[Frodo]

When those first birders bought into East Ledang or HH, semis were RM 600k plus. People say they sure die cos nothing is in place. Absolutely nothing. Not even Highways or shops.. factories? No

One of my customers sold 3 semis at RM 2.5m. bought at RM 600k when people think he was crazy.

Now he thinks people are crazy not to buy.

The future of Iskandar is bright, super bright if u go for 10-20 year horizons. Don't be short sighted like 90% of Sinkies.

Each RM600K house sold for RM2.5mil? My HDB flat after more than 10 years also did not double in price!

 

[mpan12]

To talk about a glut collectively without making any differentiation or distinction between the mega mass condo projects and those one/two tower condos would not be considered as unbiased view. Putting aside the fact that the mega projects have a much longer gestation period, even if all the projects were completed in 2018, it would not be the case that all condos will face the same doom. The Astaka condo would probably fare better than the Country Garden one, for example. There are so called better and more desirable projects which may yield positive returns compared to others. I do not have the figured to make any further comment but perhaps someone may be able to throw light on what proportion of the over supply these mega mass condos contribute to.

I think because there is so much land in Iskandar, and every condo is within like 5-10 mins drive from each other in a region like say Medini, or even from Medini to Puteri Harbour, it's not entirely wrong to lump all of them together and term it as "glut".

But I do agree some will be in greater trouble than others. For eg, Country Gardens with 9,000 units (and at least 1/3 still unsold the last I heard) all concentrated in one area, with so many more condo projects around its vicinity, there's an unimaginable amount of oversupply with lack of demand. I'd be worried if my main aim is to buy mainly for investment.

It's hard to separate the condo projects and consider them individually when studying the markets. Even in Singapore, one can't say private property sales aren't affected by HDB prices. If HDB flats don't do well, people may not sell and are unlikely to say, move to a condo.

So if there are thousands of condos in Medini ready soon which is a short drive to PH, PH buyers can't really say I don't care totally what happens at Medini side. If tenants find rentals are dirt cheap in Medini, they may consider renting in Medini instead rather than PH. It's like an ecosystem and works vice versa.

The glut definition simply stems from the general oversupply of properties (especially condos) but lack of infrastructure and a greater demand from businesses to support it. Overall, they all get affected. But some are in deeper shit than others.

 

[mpan12]

Forest City planned for 23 towers / 7096 units over 4 phases. You should very happy got these crazy china developers to fuel your criticism.


On Medini the most well planned business district area ever. Give credit where it deserved.

From 2009 - Today Over 7 Years period is well under 7k units (left out a couple projects) for a DISTRICT, not a 9k unit just for C&G DangaBay single condo complex.
Afiniti - 147
Iskandar Residence - 640
Grand Medini - 672
Elysia Park - 987
One Medini - 544
Medini Signature - 456
Paradiso Nuova - 382
DPristine - 1187
Meridin - 756
One Medini Garden Villa - 18

Thanks for the clarification. Will take some time to find their demand. But yes, definitely not as crazy as CG Danga Bay.

 

[mpan12]

Each RM600K house sold for RM2.5mil? My HDB flat after more than 10 years also did not double in price!

You brought up an interesting point for me to follow up.

Many mentioned Yes, I have friends/relatives who made it or became richer from their Iskandar properties. But just ask them: When was that? Very likely, most would have said they had bought their homes back in the very early days of 2007-2010.

But we have to use recent figures to analyze the situation. Prices in Iskandar are no longer like those 8-10 years ago. Today, even a small 900 sq ft condo already can cost like RM700+k. Ask your Malaysian friends. This is considered damn bloody expensive for their commoners. Of course to SGporeans, it's small sum cos of the exchange rate and the crazy prices here. It's all relative.

How much does one expect to make say in 5-10 years' time, given today's Iskandar pricing and in an environment of huge oversupply. That's the big question. I won't be surprised if it's negative returns even after 10 years for Iskandar condos.

As for HDB flats, Frodo... go ask your daddy and mommy. A nice 98-100 sq ft 4 room HDB flat bought in the early 80's only cost $20-30k. That same flat could now cost S$500,000! So where got don't make money?

The case of why you hardly made from your flat is not much different from the present Iskandar condos. If you had bought an Iskandar property before 2010, you would be smiling if you sold it now. If you bought it like in 2012 onwards, think how much it can go even after 10 years. Mind you, Iskandar is not like Singapore with strong government, proper planning, and a huge demand. So you got to factor in a lot more downside to it.

Similarly, those who bought their HDB flats in the 80s, if they sold their flat now, they'd be making super duper profits too. But if you bought your flat say in 2013, you try to sell it in 5 years' time, do you think you can garner a greater % of profit than those who had bought it decades ago? No way.

 

[mpan12]

But exactly what is your point?
The currently situation is self explained - there is a huge stock of unsold units now and aren't moving much.
Why?
Because there aren't enough buyers to take up the units while many investors already have few units on hand, waiting to dispose them.
BUT buying now may not means it'll be a loss for many reasons.
If buying for self stay, its a good time to enter and go for a solid bargain and lotsa freebies thrown in.
The prices had kinda peaked in late 2014 and softening now so buying now may means a hefty discount.
BUT if you are buying to flip, then good luck and if you don't have a deep enough pocket, you'll burn yourself badly.
So is buying JB property now a confirmed loss?
Maybe, depends on the buyers intention.

Agree.

Just for discussion's sake: What is your opinion. Does it make sense to buy an Iskandar condo now for retirement which will only come 15-20 years' time?

 

[Tekkun]

I think because there is so much land in Iskandar, and every condo is within like 5-10 mins drive from each other in a region like say Medini, or even from Medini to Puteri Harbour, it's not entirely wrong to lump all of them together and term it as "glut".

But I do agree some will be in greater trouble than others. For eg, Country Gardens with 9,000 units (and at least 1/3 still unsold the last I heard) all concentrated in one area, with so many more condo projects around its vicinity, there's an unimaginable amount of oversupply with lack of demand. I'd be worried if my main aim is to buy mainly for investment.

It's hard to separate the condo projects and consider them individually when studying the markets. Even in Singapore, one can't say private property sales aren't affected by HDB prices. If HDB flats don't do well, people may not sell and are unlikely to say, move to a condo.

So if there are thousands of condos in Medini ready soon which is a short drive to PH, PH buyers can't really say I don't care totally what happens at Medini side. If tenants find rentals are dirt cheap in Medini, they may consider renting in Medini instead rather than PH. It's like an ecosystem and works vice versa.

The glut definition simply stems from the general oversupply of properties (especially condos) but lack of infrastructure and a greater demand from businesses to support it. Overall, they all get affected. But some are in deeper shit than others.

If you really study in detail about Medini, it is very well planned out and lined with ready to use roads. However, I like to point out is all these projects are stand alone type. They do not complement each another. They are not within walking distance of each another and even if there are retails, it is limited to their own. maybe in future, when more developments spring up, then they would complement each another.

Compare to Sunway Iskandar, it is more integrated and everything you need is within itself. It is like self contained. Same goes for Puteri Harbour. Only difference is PH was launched earlier, that's why you see more developments there. I am sure when all are developed, there's not much difference between both of them.

How the crowd pan itself out would be interesting. Given the same, which one would they choose? Where would be the magnet?

 

[Frodo]

I think because there is so much land in Iskandar, and every condo is within like 5-10 mins drive from each other in a region like say Medini, or even from Medini to Puteri Harbour, it's not entirely wrong to lump all of them together and term it as "glut".

But I do agree some will be in greater trouble than others. For eg, Country Gardens with 9,000 units (and at least 1/3 still unsold the last I heard) all concentrated in one area, with so many more condo projects around its vicinity, there's an unimaginable amount of oversupply with lack of demand. I'd be worried if my main aim is to buy mainly for investment.

It's hard to separate the condo projects and consider them individually when studying the markets. Even in Singapore, one can't say private property sales aren't affected by HDB prices. If HDB flats don't do well, people may not sell and are unlikely to say, move to a condo.

So if there are thousands of condos in Medini ready soon which is a short drive to PH, PH buyers can't really say I don't care totally what happens at Medini side. If tenants find rentals are dirt cheap in Medini, they may consider renting in Medini instead rather than PH. It's like an ecosystem and works vice versa.

The glut definition simply stems from the general oversupply of properties (especially condos) but lack of infrastructure and a greater demand from businesses to support it. Overall, they all get affected. But some are in deeper shit than others.

Technically it won’t be wrong to simply count all condo units and conclude glut. But it would not be right either to then conclude that anyone who has bought or is going to buy a condo would be screwed because he cannot find tenant or buyer due to glut. It has to depend on which project we are talking about, as you also pointed out. It may be hard to separate the condo projects, but choosing the easier “lump them together” perspective may not give an accurate picture either. Perhaps we should aim to give a more balanced views, adding in qualifiers to our comments.

 

[ECboy]

When those first birders bought into East Ledang or HH, semis were RM 600k plus. People say they sure die cos nothing is in place. Absolutely nothing. Not even Highways or shops.. factories? No

One of my customers sold 3 semis at RM 2.5m. bought at RM 600k when people think he was crazy.

Now he thinks people are crazy not to buy.

The future of Iskandar is bright, super bright if u go for 10-20 year horizons. Don't be short sighted like 90% of Sinkies.

Although i like this story very much but it's also very dangerous. It's stories like these that influence people to make sometimes risky decisions they normall wouldn't make. Those who bought East Ledang in the early days are either gifted with super foresight or have a lot of spare cash in the bank to play. I mean who would ever think that god forsaken place would be the hottest thing since sliced bread, given MY's development & planning reputation then. I think this is one off. Expecting to make 50% or double on your investment now is maybe not realistic, although I may be wrong as I've been surprised many times with what JB has to offer.

I remember stumbling upon East Ledang in 2004-5 (I think) when it was popular with street racing, Yes that long stretch from the roundabout to the now traffic light at nusa heights was the biggest illegal street racing stretch in johor. Good times :p

 

[ECboy]

Technically it won’t be wrong to simply count all condo units and conclude glut. But it would not be right either to then conclude that anyone who has bought or is going to buy a condo would be screwed because he cannot find tenant or buyer due to glut. It has to depend on which project we are talking about, as you also pointed out. It may be hard to separate the condo projects, but choosing the easier “lump them together” perspective may not give an accurate picture either. Perhaps we should aim to give a more balanced views, adding in qualifiers to our comments.

I think those big sized condos (as in Unit size not project size) may have good demand. Astaka will do well i think, if i got money, i'll buy for myself to stay.

 

[Frodo]

I think those big sized condos (as in Unit size not project size) may have good demand. Astaka will do well i think, if i got money, i'll buy for myself to stay.

Me too....drool liao....

 

[RedsYNWA]

Me too....drool liao....

Personally I think it's still better to buy landed, esp as prices are still so low when compared to KL and SG. In 10 years time, we will be talking about a very different price point for landed in mature estates, esp those within 15-20 mins drive to the checkpoints.

 

[Frodo]

Personally I think it's still better to buy landed, esp as prices are still so low when compared to KL and SG. In 10 years time, we will be talking about a very different price point for landed in mature estates, esp those within 15-20 mins drive to the checkpoints.

Agreed....but my current circumstances only permit me to drool and not buy.:o

 

[cybermad]

I think those big sized condos (as in Unit size not project size) may have good demand. Astaka will do well i think, if i got money, i'll buy for myself to stay.

Strange that u think Astaka will do well. I thot the surroundings are far from nice ? I wont wanna stay there as the surrounding area upkeep is very important to me...

 

[snowbird]

Each RM600K house sold for RM2.5mil? My HDB flat after more than 10 years also did not double in price!

Haha, a Marine Parade 4rm bought direct was only about $30K in the late 70s and can now fetch as much as $600K, despite only 60 years left on the lease.
That's 20 times, baby!
What investment can give you as much as 20 times capital appreciation within 40 years ( plus 40 years of free rental) ??
Eat your heart out sweet heart, you were just born too early!

 

[RedsYNWA]

Haha, a Marine Parade 4rm bought direct was only about $30K in the late 70s and can now fetch as much as $600K, despite only 60 years left on the lease.
That's 20 times, baby!
What investment can give you as much as 20 times capital appreciation within 40 years ( plus 40 years of free rental) ??
Eat your heart out sweet heart, you were just born too early!

What 40 years of free rental? At most 12 years lah, unless the owner had special circumstances....

 

[Investor888]

Each RM600K house sold for RM2.5mil? My HDB flat after more than 10 years also did not double in price!

Sure or not! My relative bought his Toa Payoh flat at only S$30k in 1970s and it ballooned 10 times hor! Sold after 30 years and happily living in an old folk home waiting for his time.

 

[Investor888]

To be frank... those chaps surrounding me who bought into these places back did not have too much money.

We have limited money and was pushed out of Singapore by the PAP's rich men policy. This chaps wanted to cut cost and ended up huat huat huat. For those who think u can replicate this, please don't follow. It is not gota happen ( price double ) easily now.

We still drive leisurely around the Coastal highway every other wee hours of the morning. Nothing has changed. My record was 230km/hour for a good 3 seconds on Coastal highway until my balls gave way. Even whacked past a patrol who had to keep to road shoulder for us. In Singapore we would have been busted!

Although i like this story very much but it's also very dangerous. It's stories like these that influence people to make sometimes risky decisions they normall wouldn't make. Those who bought East Ledang in the early days are either gifted with super foresight or have a lot of spare cash in the bank to play. I mean who would ever think that god forsaken place would be the hottest thing since sliced bread, given MY's development & planning reputation then. I think this is one off. Expecting to make 50% or double on your investment now is maybe not realistic, although I may be wrong as I've been surprised many times with what JB has to offer.

I remember stumbling upon East Ledang in 2004-5 (I think) when it was popular with street racing, Yes that long stretch from the roundabout to the now traffic light at nusa heights was the biggest illegal street racing stretch in johor. Good times :p

 

[Frodo]

Sure or not! My relative bought his Toa Payoh flat at only S$30k in 1970s and it ballooned 10 times hor! Sold after 30 years and happily living in an old folk home waiting for his time.

Sure, I bought mine in 1998 for $280K and now can fetch $450K...either I born too late or should have joined workforce when still baby..LOL!

 

[RedsYNWA]

Sure, I bought mine in 1998 for $280K and now can fetch $450K...either I born too late or should have joined workforce when still baby..LOL!

Hahaha I still in army in 1998, so I manage to figure out that Bro Frodo is older (and probably richer) than me!