Diplomacy is the best solution
Despite the hardened posturing and heated rhetoric between the two divided
Koreas and series of exercises by the US and South Korean militaries, the
prospect of an all-out war breaking out in the Korean Peninsula is
presently quite negligible. From the actions of both sides and the major
powers, China and US, there was a silent consensus among all parties to
avoid a confrontation even if their immediate action suggest otherwise.
The South immediate response to the North shelling of its islands is a
series of military exercises with the US aircraft carrier groups in the
Yellow sea. However, these exercises were held far away from the disputed
border with North Korea and thus the possibility of accidental misfiring(they did once,however) and skirmishes with the North is avoided. This show the US does not want a showdown with the North but rather
just as a symbolic response to the North’s belligerence. The North
threatened with fierce rhetoric but there were no further provocations. The
huge US battle group is formidable enough to repel and countered a
North Korean attack but its avoidance of North Korean sea border has a
strategic reason. Pyongyang on the other hand is not “Crazy” as analysts
likes to describe its brinksmanship to pick a fight with the US. Thus both
sides have an “invisibly drawn consensus” between them to prevent a
conflict from erupting.
Thus, military coercion on the North is by far, unsuccessful . On the 8th of
Dec 2010, the North fired artillery into the direction of South Korean
islands again. The shells however landed on the North side of the border. This
incident again show the failure of the US-South Korean military exercises
as well as the hardened rhetoric of Seoul’s new defense Minister to have
any effect on the North. The North’s artillery exercise, happened on the same day
the US joint chief of staff, General Mike Mullen visited Seoul have caused
an immediate response on Seoul’s currency market, reflecting jittery over a prospect
of Pyongyang military aggression. South Korea cannot afford to continue
such jittery like this indefinitely.
Therefore it is only realistic that once the symbolic military response has been
over, the issue between the two Koreas has to be settled through diplomatic
means. China’s offer of a six-party talks not on the nuclear issue but the
immediate aftermath was snubbed by the US and Japan and South Korea. The
US, Japan and South Korea held its own talks on the 6th of December 2010
but the outcome is as similar as its earlier comments-To sent a clear
signal to the North. The US while snubbing Beijing for its inaction will
send her deputy Secretary of State, James Steinberg to Beijing for talks on
the North Korean issue. Meanwhile in a sign that the US may directly
negotiate with North Korea, a US governor Bill Richardson will be traveling
to Pyongyang for talks with North Korean counterparts, the first direct
communication between the Washington and Pyongyang in the aftermath of the shelling Incident.
Cool heads must prevail by all sides to the conflict. There can be of no
end if either sides continue to provoke the other. Diplomatic efforts must be
done to bring all parties’ grievances not on the battlefield but on the negotiating table.
Despite the hardened posturing and heated rhetoric between the two divided
Koreas and series of exercises by the US and South Korean militaries, the
prospect of an all-out war breaking out in the Korean Peninsula is
presently quite negligible. From the actions of both sides and the major
powers, China and US, there was a silent consensus among all parties to
avoid a confrontation even if their immediate action suggest otherwise.
The South immediate response to the North shelling of its islands is a
series of military exercises with the US aircraft carrier groups in the
Yellow sea. However, these exercises were held far away from the disputed
border with North Korea and thus the possibility of accidental misfiring(they did once,however) and skirmishes with the North is avoided. This show the US does not want a showdown with the North but rather
just as a symbolic response to the North’s belligerence. The North
threatened with fierce rhetoric but there were no further provocations. The
huge US battle group is formidable enough to repel and countered a
North Korean attack but its avoidance of North Korean sea border has a
strategic reason. Pyongyang on the other hand is not “Crazy” as analysts
likes to describe its brinksmanship to pick a fight with the US. Thus both
sides have an “invisibly drawn consensus” between them to prevent a
conflict from erupting.
Thus, military coercion on the North is by far, unsuccessful . On the 8th of
Dec 2010, the North fired artillery into the direction of South Korean
islands again. The shells however landed on the North side of the border. This
incident again show the failure of the US-South Korean military exercises
as well as the hardened rhetoric of Seoul’s new defense Minister to have
any effect on the North. The North’s artillery exercise, happened on the same day
the US joint chief of staff, General Mike Mullen visited Seoul have caused
an immediate response on Seoul’s currency market, reflecting jittery over a prospect
of Pyongyang military aggression. South Korea cannot afford to continue
such jittery like this indefinitely.
Therefore it is only realistic that once the symbolic military response has been
over, the issue between the two Koreas has to be settled through diplomatic
means. China’s offer of a six-party talks not on the nuclear issue but the
immediate aftermath was snubbed by the US and Japan and South Korea. The
US, Japan and South Korea held its own talks on the 6th of December 2010
but the outcome is as similar as its earlier comments-To sent a clear
signal to the North. The US while snubbing Beijing for its inaction will
send her deputy Secretary of State, James Steinberg to Beijing for talks on
the North Korean issue. Meanwhile in a sign that the US may directly
negotiate with North Korea, a US governor Bill Richardson will be traveling
to Pyongyang for talks with North Korean counterparts, the first direct
communication between the Washington and Pyongyang in the aftermath of the shelling Incident.
Cool heads must prevail by all sides to the conflict. There can be of no
end if either sides continue to provoke the other. Diplomatic efforts must be
done to bring all parties’ grievances not on the battlefield but on the negotiating table.
