Can Chee Soon Juan do a Lee Li Lian or a JBJ?

[Holdmetight]

By-election effect should not be underestimated, but also not overestimated.

Punggol east saw a vote swing of 10% which allowed LLL to win. Prior to that, the last notable swing was 40% at Anson 1981 to allow JBJ to win, but that can be explained because Anson lost the illustrious Devan Nair who had secured it in both 1979 BE and 1980 GE and who subsequently resigned in order to allow the state to appoint him President.

One should also note that LLL had established a firm election result Punggol East in GE in 2011, and JBJ had established a presence in Telok Blangah in 1979 By-Election. and in fact almost won TB in 1980 General Election. This "building-up" record is much better than Chee Soon Juan. So to extrapolate from LLL and JBJ to CSJ would be wrong.

The best record we have on SDP is 40% Holland-BT 2011 GE, so extrapolating that to BB By-election 2016, we need SDP to best its previous record by at least 10%, or to improve on its best 2015 GE record by at least 17 pecentage points. It also means PAP BB incumbent has suffer a 23% swing compared to 2015 GE. Can CSJ do an LLL or at least half a JBJ?

 

[tonychat]

It depends on the voters... are they sinkiely stupid or are they sane..

are they addicted to PAP ass-screwing or are they having balls to let SDP fight for them.

 

[tonychat]

The best record we have on SDP is 40% Holland-BT 2011 GE, so extrapolating that to BB By-election 2016, we need SDP to best its previous record by at least 10%, or to improve on its best 2015 GE record by at least 17 pecentage points. It also means PAP BB incumbent has suffer a 23% swing compared to 2015 GE. Can CSJ do an LLL or at least half a JBJ?

past result does not represent future events...pls...

 

[scroobal]

Dr Anal Koh's conduct, gaffes and plain arrogance helped to sway the votes. He also has no prior history with the constituency, the grassroots, the party and the residents.

Murali has only one obstacle, his race.

Lee Li Lian had the underdog advantage as result of her humble attributes and hardwork with the party. Plus the sincerity.

 

[GoldenDragon]

By-election effect should not be underestimated, but also not overestimated.

Punggol east saw a vote swing of 10% which allowed LLL to win. Prior to that, the last notable swing was 40% at Anson 1981 to allow JBJ to win, but that can be explained because Anson lost the illustrious Devan Nair who had secured it in both 1979 BE and 1980 GE and who subsequently resigned in order to allow the state to appoint him President.

One should also note that LLL had established a firm election result Punggol East in GE in 2011, and JBJ had established a presence in Telok Blangah in 1979 By-Election. and in fact almost won TB in 1980 General Election. This "building-up" record is much better than Chee Soon Juan. So to extrapolate from LLL and JBJ to CSJ would be wrong.

The best record we have on SDP is 40% Holland-BT 2011 GE, so extrapolating that to BB By-election 2016, we need SDP to best its previous record by at least 10%, or to improve on its best 2015 GE record by at least 17 pecentage points. It also means PAP BB incumbent has suffer a 23% swing compared to 2015 GE. Can CSJ do an LLL or at least half a JBJ?

please participate in the BB BE Gold Cup.

 

[Leckmichamarsch]

irrevocably CAN

 

[RandomNexus]

The factors that allow LLL to win Punggol I think are as follows:

1. LLL was a returning candidate and KPK was a parachuted candidate. Familiarity vs Non familiarity. WP was cast as devoted to putting people who have worked the ground before vs someone who dropped in with an impression of being "privileged".

2. LL does not have the bad-image baggage of CSJ. Despite CSJ attempting to change, it will take a while.

3. The frame was cast as LLL as "one of us" vs KPH as elitist and "out of touch". The dumb 'Son of Punggol' tag was dissected to mean nothing and was ridiculed. KPK's own gaffes were played out this time by the alternative social media. The 154th no longer holds ultimate sway in this playing out of impressions.

4. WP has the better brand name with a reputation for being moderate. It does not scare the middle ground. In code, it simply means we oppose with good reason and fight for you. SDP on the other hand, stands for "we oppose irregardless of common sense."

I think I remembered writing these reasons out here however more in detail in this SBF. The word "parachute" I remembered was not used back then but now commonly used.

Now you see why Murali is sent there. The familiarity factor is a lesson PAP no doubt learned from Punggol.

As side comments, SDP has missed a golden opportunity in the last elections. Standing true to his ambitions which I still regard as naive, CSJ sent himself and Paul Tambyah to fight a difficult terrain of GRC in Holland-Bukit Timah. I wondered why he did not at least send either himself or especially Paul to the single constituency seat which one would stand a better chance of higher vote count and maybe steal a surprise win. If he has done that in Bukit Batok SMC, and by a stroke of luck, this SMC was declared to go for by elections like Punggol, then this familiarity factor may play to this advantage.

LLL was a weak candidate and over here, Paul Tambyah was a strong candidate by impression of being to sway the moderate ground more. So there again, SDP made another mistake but it is generally still a party of the extreme voices so no guessing they would like CSJ to stand again.

Can CSJ make a difference? It is still early to tell. PAP has made some mistakes too by announcing too early of David Ong giving SDP a chance to go to the ground early and secondly LWL, supposedly trying to restore LKY's image, has the other effect of attacking his father LKY's legacy.

The one-year commemoration of LKY's passing is supposed to act something as a harbinger for this coming by-election in a small way but LWL has totally torpedoed it. LKY would definitely flip if he was alive.

As of now, I will still give the edge to PAP but it can get closer as the days approach. It is still a by election that PAP usually does not have an advantage. It all depends on CSJ not making mistakes but I really think the stronger candidate Paul Tambyah would make a difference. Even if he does not, a strong vote count put in a stronger bet come next elections. The ground voters does use this basis and for every candidate especially, you should not commit gaffes like CSJ who did it umpteen times in the past. He was a willing actor in how PAP demolished his credibility. He has learned his lessons but time is against him. Still with recent PAP's willingness to enlarge number of NCMPs, I think CSJ will achieve his ultimate dream of entering parliament. Afterall, there are not many opposition candidates that have his charisma and SDP is not a good-enough brand name yet to hold up unknown folks.

 

[Onitsuka]

The factors that allow LLL to win Punggol I think are as follows:


2. CSJ does not have the bad-image baggage of LLL. Despite CSJ attempting to change, it will take a while.

The other way round, you mean ?

 

[RandomNexus]

The other way round, you mean ?

Oh yes ...typo .. ok I re-edit the post .. thanks!

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

The factors that allow LLL to win Punggol I think are as follows:

1. LLL was a returning candidate and KPK was a parachuted candidate. Familiarity vs Non familiarity. WP was cast as devoted to putting people who have worked the ground before vs someone who dropped in with an impression of being "privileged".

Excellent analysis which captures all the main points in the last PE BE as well as the current BB BE. Thanks!

 

[scroobal]

The point about taking on Holland-BT indeed was a mystery.

There was something that was going very strongly for WP and LLL - mounting complaints about the lack of essential facilities. I think it was wet market and child care centres. In 1991, the voters did the same for Nee Soon Central by voting in a dud to teach PAP a lesson. It was temple matters and MP's bo chap atitude.

I was watching the budget and there was nothing that was going BB specific way suggesting that there are no burning issues.

Not sure if it is just me but the media is not exactly covering Murali or the PAP. Do they know something that we don't.

The factors that allow LLL to win Punggol I think are as follows:

1. LLL was a returning candidate and KPK was a parachuted candidate. Familiarity vs Non familiarity. WP was cast as devoted to putting people who have worked the ground before vs someone who dropped in with an impression of being "privileged".

2. LL does not have the bad-image baggage of CSJ. Despite CSJ attempting to change, it will take a while.

3. The frame was cast as LLL as "one of us" vs KPH as elitist and "out of touch". The dumb 'Son of Punggol' tag was dissected to mean nothing and was ridiculed. KPK's own gaffes were played out this time by the alternative social media. The 154th no longer holds ultimate sway in this playing out of impressions.

4. WP has the better brand name with a reputation for being moderate. It does not scare the middle ground. In code, it simply means we oppose with good reason and fight for you. SDP on the other hand, stands for "we oppose irregardless of common sense."

I think I remembered writing these reasons out here however more in detail in this SBF. The word "parachute" I remembered was not used back then but now commonly used.

Now you see why Murali is sent there. The familiarity factor is a lesson PAP no doubt learned from Punggol.

 

[scroobal]

Good thread / post bro. Had the mind thinking again.

By-election effect should not be underestimated, but also not overestimated.

Punggol east saw a vote swing of 10% which allowed LLL to win. Prior to that, the last notable swing was 40% at Anson 1981 to allow JBJ to win, but that can be explained because Anson lost the illustrious Devan Nair who had secured it in both 1979 BE and 1980 GE and who subsequently resigned in order to allow the state to appoint him President.

One should also note that LLL had established a firm election result Punggol East in GE in 2011, and JBJ had established a presence in Telok Blangah in 1979 By-Election. and in fact almost won TB in 1980 General Election. This "building-up" record is much better than Chee Soon Juan. So to extrapolate from LLL and JBJ to CSJ would be wrong.

The best record we have on SDP is 40% Holland-BT 2011 GE, so extrapolating that to BB By-election 2016, we need SDP to best its previous record by at least 10%, or to improve on its best 2015 GE record by at least 17 pecentage points. It also means PAP BB incumbent has suffer a 23% swing compared to 2015 GE. Can CSJ do an LLL or at least half a JBJ?

 

[winnipegjets]

Whether Chee wins or not depends on LHL's mood. If he feels good and all charged up to do battle with Chee in Parliament for the next few years, he will give instructions to the Elections Department.

 

[eatshitndie]

no matter how the votes swing it will be soixante neuf.

 

[Charlie99]

past result does not represent future events...pls...

The past may not indicate the future.
Past results may not project the future.

 

[frenchbriefs]

dont u think its sad that the only victories that opposition can boast of are things that happened nearly 30 years ago?no wonder its like only the lao uncles and ah peks that know about politics,how many of the younger generations knows what happened in 1981?especially with the iron curtain dark cloud of obscurity and censorship of infomation.

this shows that PAP has the clear and overwhelming advantage in their ball court,opposition has to depend on bitterly fought popularity contests,charisma and personality to eke out a victory,PAP wins purely on brand quality and strength alone and brand recognition.they are the Samsung of singapore politics.the only way PAP can ever lose is if they fuck up absolutely,fantastically and supremely.this gives them the opportunity to import even the most incompetent of incompetent fools.PAP has the entire machinery of Singapore on their side,from economics to politics to judiciary.Clearly LKY had the foresight when he set out to corrupt every agency every ministry every administration of Singapore from the ground up.and set up the venerable People's Association grassroots.this is why LWL should shut the fuck up if SIngapore wishes to pay homage to the late founding father.

chee soo juan is a nobody and will die a nobody,even francis seow died a nobody,u only shine in the limelight as long as PAP allows you,the minute you cross their paths u are as good as dead whether u acknowledge it or not,only stubborn idiots refuses to acknowledge reality.

 

[JohnTan]

Chee did a JBJ when he was sued into bankruptcy, just like JBJ. Till today, Chee's reputation is like JBJ, all talk and no action. Most sinkies view these two as unreliable troublemakers.

 

[RandomNexus]

Excellent analysis which captures all the main points in the last PE BE as well as the current BB BE. Thanks!

You are most welcome

 

[RandomNexus]

The point about taking on Holland-BT indeed was a mystery.

There was something that was going very strongly for WP and LLL - mounting complaints about the lack of essential facilities. I think it was wet market and child care centres. In 1991, the voters did the same for Nee Soon Central by voting in a dud to teach PAP a lesson. It was temple matters and MP's bo chap atitude.

I was watching the budget and there was nothing that was going BB specific way suggesting that there are no burning issues.

Not sure if it is just me but the media is not exactly covering Murali or the PAP. Do they know something that we don't.

Bro, I do not think it is a mystery for CSJ. From the grapevine, CSJ in his academic days in NUS, is known to be very idealistic and "talk big". He was impressive in his ability to speak with effective soundbites that can hit on you. However, his logic in connecting the dots at times are questionable and I personally find he makes far too many sweeping statements. These are now openly found written in his books. For eg, he lambasted the greed in the financial sector causing 2008 financial crisis, and later cited the promotion of financial industry in Singapore as opening the door to such greed and possible failure. As a result, the government gets blamed for being greedy by this association. To me, I find this sweeping. The greed is caused by lack of regulations on the banks in the West and is resulted from an extreme free confidence on the markets. I just find the rigour lacking.

Another is the argument to raise national healthcare expenditure and knowing that he will be criticised for saying it is time to raise it without suggesting how to raise the funds for it. The convenient way was "oh ok, and let us cut the defence expenditure". Defence was the convenient way to cut due to their lack of understanding of the budget.

He would be better off citing the importance of raising healthcare expenditure and not bothered so much about to do it in the budget if they have no idea. In a way, I would respect them and it is not to say stuff you have no competence.

But that is CSJ. Always ambitious and idealistic but he is lacking the realism how to move towards his end-goal. All his political life is full of such examples. He challenged Mathias Yao to fight in a single constituency and Yao accepted it. He was so confident he would win. When the results were announced for him to gather a very low margin, he basically collapsed to the floor. His face was a total disbelief that his calculations were so wrong. I still got a picture of him and he had to be held to his feet as his supporters took him away. Chiam See Tong described him as a megalomaniac in a break with him when he urged Chiam See Tong to fight on his behalf. He would fight for all sorts of fringe issues and do it in a way that undermined his own credibility in the eyes of Singaporeans. He read too much Mandela and Aung San but forgot those conditions present there do not exist here. They are so many poor judgements in galore.

From here, one can guess certain things do not change for a person's beliefs in doing things. That is why he went up for Holland-BT to put his best team there. It was a long shot suggesting once again, he has a lack of deep understanding of issues. Perhaps he received too much feedback from the radical hardcore supporters that say otherwise. 33% votes achieved tells he just won the hardcore supporters' vote and did not swing any middle ground at all.

Anyway, the last elections showed some changes in tactics and perhaps different thinking by CSJ. Oh no, going for Holand-BT GRC reminds me from what I judged of him in the past. I will give him a chance and hope he applies more realism to achieve his ideals and right now, I give him some credit for his years of perseverance. That is about it.

BB is still early days for PAP and LWL has thrown in a spanner into the works. I think PAP is prepared to give away BB if need be. Anyway, I still say it is still early days. When the fireworks begin, it is easier to make some calls.

 

[scroobal]

Thanks for sharing.

There were a number of things that seem to suggest a serious issue. Flatly denying things when caught red-handed suggest a propensity to lie. Most people would be very careful having been caught once but Chee seems not to be concerned or has no idea that it affects his credibility. Here are the some of the examples - tape recording which the University was shocked that he refused to admit having been caught red handed and with the transcript as evidence ( you must have seen the transcript as it has been widely circulated ), Parliament censuring and fining him for fabricating data, $17b loan which never occurred, etc.

I remember a foreign journalist interviewing him and he was pointedly asked why the figure $30k. He said that he himself worked it out as something that he could afford after selling his books etc. I am sure the journalist knew that it was the other side that sent out the message for the $30k. The amount was raised in 10 days from donations. It did not occur to him why the Journalist specifically asked about the figure. The journalist was kind enough not to ask why would his adversaries accept less than 3% of what they could go after him for.

The Brothel as a practice invites personalities from time to time to speak to their staff following Chatham House rules. Chaim was invited and he was asked why he initially supported Chee when he was dismissed from NUS, agreed to defend him in court and even supported the hunger strike. Chiam said he had no idea that Chee was going to carry out his hunger strike in the private confines of his home except for meeting the press occasionally unlike others who did it in the open. If you recall after a few days Chiam demanded that the hunger strike be stopped as it had become farce. Chiam said that Chee could not recognise that it was destroying his (Chee's) credibility and that of the party and continued. As expected it did not last long and it directly led to the party coup and crisis.

Bro, I do not think it is a mystery for CSJ. From the grapevine, CSJ in his academic days in NUS, is known to be very idealistic and "talk big". He was impressive in his ability to speak with effective soundbites that can hit on you. However, his logic in connecting the dots at times are questionable and I personally find he makes far too many sweeping statements. These are now openly found written in his books. For eg, he lambasted the greed in the financial sector causing 2008 financial crisis, and later cited the promotion of financial industry in Singapore as opening the door to such greed and possible failure. As a result, the government gets blamed for being greedy by this association. To me, I find this sweeping. The greed is caused by lack of regulations on the banks in the West and is resulted from an extreme free confidence on the markets. I just find the rigour lacking.

Another is the argument to raise national healthcare expenditure and knowing that he will be criticised for saying it is time to raise it without suggesting how to raise the funds for it. The convenient way was "oh ok, and let us cut the defence expenditure". Defence was the convenient way to cut due to their lack of understanding of the budget.

He would be better off citing the importance of raising healthcare expenditure and not bothered so much about to do it in the budget if they have no idea. In a way, I would respect them and it is not to say stuff you have no competence.

But that is CSJ. Always ambitious and idealistic but he is lacking the realism how to move towards his end-goal. All his political life is full of such examples. He challenged Mathias Yao to fight in a single constituency and Yao accepted it. He was so confident he would win. When the results were announced for him to gather a very low margin, he basically collapsed to the floor. His face was a total disbelief that his calculations were so wrong. I still got a picture of him and he had to be held to his feet as his supporters took him away. Chiam See Tong described him as a megalomaniac in a break with him when he urged Chiam See Tong to fight on his behalf. He would fight for all sorts of fringe issues and do it in a way that undermined his own credibility in the eyes of Singaporeans. He read too much Mandela and Aung San but forgot those conditions present there do not exist here. They are so many poor judgements in galore.

From here, one can guess certain things do not change for a person's beliefs in doing things. That is why he went up for Holland-BT to put his best team there. It was a long shot suggesting once again, he has a lack of deep understanding of issues. Perhaps he received too much feedback from the radical hardcore supporters that say otherwise. 33% votes achieved tells he just won the hardcore supporters' vote and did not swing any middle ground at all.

Anyway, the last elections showed some changes in tactics and perhaps different thinking by CSJ. Oh no, going for Holand-BT GRC reminds me from what I judged of him in the past. I will give him a chance and hope he applies more realism to achieve his ideals and right now, I give him some credit for his years of perseverance. That is about it.

BB is still early days for PAP and LWL has thrown in a spanner into the works. I think PAP is prepared to give away BB if need be. Anyway, I still say it is still early days. When the fireworks begin, it is easier to make some calls.