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Burma Junta dua kee liao

k1976

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Myanmar Resistance Leader Claims Majority Control Over Territory​

  • Shadow government hopes to bring fight to urban strongholds
  • Trajectory of conflict may not change even if Suu Kyi released



Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyidaw in January.

Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyidaw in January.Source: AFP/Getty Images
By Bloomberg News
September 29, 2023 at 4:02 PM GMT+8

The acting leader of Myanmar’s government-in-exile said resistance forces are in control of about 60% of the country’s territory and poised to threaten the ruling junta in key strongholds as fighting rages across the Southeast Asian nation.

Violence has intensified in Myanmar as the military led by Min Aung Hlaing, facing a crumbling economy and growing signs of dissent within his regime, struggles to keep up with a multi-front conflict from several armed ethnic groups.

A shadow government allied with ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi and formed after the 2021 coup, along with other armed ethnic groups, have been ramping up ground attacks with an eye on new military operations, including near the capital city of Naypyidaw.
 

k1976

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Two months on from dissolving Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy, Myanmar's military remains mired in a conflict with armed pro-democracy resistance groups amid a shifting balance of power that looks less tilted in the military's favor.

"The Myanmar military is in fact shrinking from a severe -- and rapidly growing -- shortage of personnel," Ye Myo Hein, a visiting scholar at the United States Institute of Peace, wrote in an analysis released in May. The report estimates that it has suffered 13,000 battlefield deaths and 8,000 defections and desertions, for a total of 21,000 losses since the coup.

Previously, analysts put the military's total personnel at 300,000 to 400,000. Ye Myo Hein argues that it has not recruited enough troops to fill out a structure that was expanded before the 2021 coup, leaving many battalions well below full strength.
 

k1976

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Anthony Davis, a Bangkok-based analyst and expert on Myanmar's security situation, sees Myanmar's infantry numbering about 100,000 to 120,000. "I agree that the traditional estimates are seriously overstated," he said.

The recruitment troubles may stem partly from 2016's long-awaited transition to democracy led by Aung San Suu Kyi, after decades of military rule. Many young people who had a chance to experience democracy before the 2021 coup find it hard to accept the military's highhandedness.

As its numbers decrease, the military is mobilizing fighter jets and helicopters in its fight to quash the pro-democracy resistance. In April, it bombed a village in the Sagaing region where people had gathered for the opening of an office run by the shadow National Unity Government, killing more than 160 people.
 

k1976

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The nonviolent resistance advocated by Suu Kyi has been losing support as opponents of military rule instead meet violence with violence. Pro-democracy rebels have organized into armed groups collectively known as the People's Defense Force, launching guerrilla attacks against military targets.

These forces initially fought mainly with hunting rifles and homemade firearms. But since the second half of 2022, automatic rifles and other small arms have begun to proliferate "from ethnic armed organizations, from Thailand, from local production and from the enemy," Davis said.

The violence between the military and pro-democracy forces has escalated. Two years it seized power, Myanmar's military said resistance groups had killed over 5,400 civilians, including administrators and informants. Most recently, a famous pro-military singer was shot and later hospitalized; the singer was in critical condition on Tuesday.

Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy was dissolved in March after refusing to re-register under restrictive new rules imposed by the military government. The pro-democracy movement is led by the National Unity Government, which is working with ethnic minority insurgent groups that have been battling Myanmar's military for many years.

"Regardless of Suu Kyi's views, we want a revolution" that keeps the military out of government, an NUG source said.
 

Tarkett

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Under Uncker Sam Embargo.... Burma Junta ball shrinkage is big big deal woh
Only china can save them de woh
 

red amoeba

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we are still laundering $$ for juntas no? We are still buying sand and stones no? The sabre rattling of restoring Aung San Dua Kyi is all bullshit.
 

orh mee suah

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The NUG is in USA.
The PDF is doing the work in Myanmar. If the Junta loses, there will be internal power struggles among the ethnic groups for control.
ASSK will be left behind. The days when she is useful are over.......and the Junta is unlikely to lose power.
 
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