BS about the BE effect

[metalmickey]

Discounting stuff by making unproven predictions is not going to convince anyone.
WP winning 2-4 GRCs and another opposition party winning 1 more GRC in GE2011? Not going to happen.

Quite obviously since GE 2011 was 2 years back.

As for GE 2016, don't you think that SMCs are easier to grab?

As for the prediction "no non-WP opposition will win seats in parliament", that translates to

"none of the following :
Nicole Seah, Vincent Wijeysingha, Tan Jee Say, Ang Yong Guan, Hazel Poa, Tony Tan, Jeanette Chong, Ben Pwee, Lina Chiam, Paul Tambyah, any as yet unknown quantity, will win a seat during GE 2016". That is a very very big statement - not only unprovable, but also probably wrong.

As for the PAP, do you think they actually have the ability to solve all their problems within 3 years? 5 years go by very quickly, and 2 years are already gone.

Anyway, my prediction for 2016: between 15 and 20 seats.

 

[metalmickey]

The 13% vote swing has given the PAP one scary thought. No GRC or SMC with a 10% margin of victory is safe anymore. And if the national problems remain unsolved, even GRCs with a 15-20% margin may fall depending on the strength of the opposition candidates. I won't be surprised if the PAP starts changing their election strategy and decide to place two or three heavyweights in a few GRCs while letting go of the GRCs that they know cannot be salvaged anymore.

2016 is not a safe election anymore. It's no longer a question of whether they'll lose their 2/3 majority. It's a question of whether they'll lose their absolute majority.

I agree with you that 2011 is the last safe election for the PAP. But other things I have to say are contentious.

First, it is not only PAP who has a talent problem. The opposition also has a talent problem. It always has, and it's gotten slightly better but not by much. It's still much much easier entering politics through PAP than anywhere else.

Second, people are still not ready to hand power from PAP to opposition. They might just hold back when it comes to the crunch. The spectre of a "freak election result" has always been bullshit, but not anymore.

 

[loneshark]

Let me guess, in 2016, you will have a bumper crop of generals retiring

 

[Leongsam]

2016 is not a safe election anymore. It's no longer a question of whether they'll lose their 2/3 majority. It's a question of whether they'll lose their absolute majority.

The PAP should do the right thing and evoke the ISA and arrest all those opposition clowns that are considered to be a serious threat to the party's long term interests.

We can't allow destructive forces to enter parliament. They'll destroy the country and your wives and daughters will end up having to work as maids in other countries.

 

[6000kmApart]

The PAP should do the right thing and evoke the ISA and arrest all those opposition clowns that are considered to be a serious threat to the party's long term interests.

We can't allow destructive forces to enter parliament. They'll destroy the country and your wives and daughters will end up having to work as maids in other countries.

Wrong. Your wives and daughters will end up having to work as maids in YOUR own country.

 

[glockman]

The PAP should do the right thing and evoke the ISA and arrest all those opposition clowns that are considered to be a serious threat to the party's long term interests.

We can't allow destructive forces to enter parliament. They'll destroy the country and your wives and daughters will end up having to work as maids in other countries.

Ha ha ha! I always knew you had a sense of humour. But this takes the cake.

 

[jswyodn]

The PAP should do the right thing and evoke the ISA and arrest all those opposition clowns that are considered to be a serious threat to the party's long term interests.

We can't allow destructive forces to enter parliament. They'll destroy the country and your wives and daughters will end up having to work as maids in other countries.

We all know that can't happen anymore lah... The WP aren't idealists like the Barisan. They know how to manoeuvre themselves to prevent things like that from happening. They don't actually do the attacking on their own. They fan the flames just enough and let the fire destroy everything for them.

BTW, "Invoke" vs "Evoke" :p

 

[Leongsam]

We all know that can't happen anymore lah... The WP aren't idealists like the Barisan. They know how to manoeuvre themselves to prevent things like that from happening. They don't actually do the attacking on their own. They fan the flames just enough and let the fire destroy everything for them.

BTW, "Invoke" vs "Evoke" :p

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/evoke

 

[Leongsam]

Wrong. Your wives and daughters will end up having to work as maids in YOUR own country.

Makes no difference where they work as maids. The fact remains that Sinkies will soon be working for the Pinoys if they aren't careful and start misusing their voting rights.

 

[jswyodn]

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/evoke

I stand corrected :o

Anyway, the PAP won't lose power that soon. Losing their 2/3 majority only means that bills that go against the constitution can no longer be passed, but most of the other bills can still be passed with absolute majority.

Even if the PAP loses its absolute majority, the WP has indicated that they are willing to form a coalition with the PAP to ensure that the country continues running smoothly.

 

[watchman8]

SDP has Chee as a lose cannon. He is damaged goods and need to move aside. Chee is more like a mouth piece talking about human rights and democracy. Most Singaporeans care more about jobs, housing, decent transportation, schools for their children and quality of life. We already have democracy in the form of our vote.

The fear is gone and control of media is limited. People now totally discount what media says, knowing that it is media mouth pieces.

It is a whole new world.

Yes, I call it the iPad effect. Since iPad reached a significant chunk of retirees, these people are liberated from the state controlled media. They start to read alternative opinion like sammyboy and saw the light.

 

[watchman8]

We all know that can't happen anymore lah... The WP aren't idealists like the Barisan. They know how to manoeuvre themselves to prevent things like that from happening. They don't actually do the attacking on their own. They fan the flames just enough and let the fire destroy everything for them.

BTW, "Invoke" vs "Evoke" :p

WP has to be the old pap, one that has the citizens interest at heart. The current pap has total discarded the old guard over past two decades when old man has free hand in his purge to ensure total control and promotion of LHL to the throne.

 

[jswyodn]

WP has to be the old pap, one that has the citizens interest at heart. The current pap has total discarded the old guard over past two decades when old man has free hand in his purge to ensure total control and promotion of LHL to the throne.

To be honest, I really don't think WP will take the place of the old PAP. The hallmark of the LKY-era PAP was LKY's ability to gather talents to form his cabinet. Lim Kim San is the prime example - a local grad who succeeded in the banking sector and was recruited as the first chairman of HDB. The PAP today is plagued down by too much deadwood, but I think the WP is starting to suffer from the same problem as well.

The way I see it, the best route for a real talented person (a modern day GKS/LKS perhaps) to get into a ministerial position would be to form a new party. WP already has a bunch of empty vessels joining them in recent years who will be too difficult to dislodge.

 

[liangshan]

Those who think PAP will lose power to WP in 2 elections, you are so wrong.

I do not think WP's win is entirely due to the BE effect, but partially there is some influence. Fact is the residents there could vote freely yesterday without fear that ruling party might get kicked out. But such fear always exist in general elections. And also ask yourself if WP is ready to take over. They probably also know they are not ready.

By the way I do not understand why people still think SDP is so gracious to withdraw unlike the other 2 parties..If WP had lost this BE, SDP would be out at full force whacking WP.

 

[PTADER]

The PAP's official explaination about their shock PE loss is that it is the BE effect.

After reviewing the qualitative data over the past 9 days, I am not so sure. I believe that something fundamental has changed.

The PAP are going deny it and ban all talk about it internally. This is because if the change has indeed happened, they will need a complete change of top leadership to stay relevant. Because this cannot even be discussed, they will be completely not ready for 2016:

You are right. Something fundamental has changed and it is extremely worrying.

With a giant share of the Chinese votes, the WP has shown that it can win elections on its own steam without the support of the minorities. It won about 70% of the 22K Chinese votes that were up for grabs leaving the PAP with a dismal 30% of the Chinese votes and having to rely on the remaining 7K votes or so from the minorities to avoid an even more humiliating defeat and scoreline.

In 1963, Singapore joined the Malaysian Federation. One of the main reason was that it needed the Malaysian government's help to flush out the Chinese Communists.

After two years of intense bickering over "Malaysian-Malaysia", Singapore was kicked out of the Malaysian Federation. Back then, the PAP, under Lee, was determined that Singapore would not go down the path of Malaysia and that multiracialism would be a sacrosanct and inviolable cornerstone of Singapore politics and society.

In the early 80s, LKY began to change. He started dabbling with this once sacrosanct and inviolable cornerstone. Singapore underwent a period of sinicisation which intensified after the 12.9% vote swing in the December 1984 general elections.

LKY ignored the ISD's security files and reports which pointed to Low's predisposition towards being a Chinese Chauvinist. Lee's hatred for JBJ and his determination to destroy him overrode his better judgement. It saw him riding and supporting the Nantah and Chinese Chauvinist Trojan horse lurking in the WP that was Low Thia Khiang.

That Nantah Chinese Chauvinist Trojan horse has repaid Lee but has gone rogue. Lee and the PAP can no longer steer this Chinese Chauvinist. He has come back to bite LKY and the PAP in the butt. He has shown that he can win elections on his own steam without the support of the minorities. The minority card was a card that LKY had always used thinking that it would be sufficient to get the PAP across the line even if the Chinese votes were split against the PAP's favour.

The PE by-election results is a startling and worrying development for Singapore. It signals that the sinicisation of Singapore has been an overwhelming success.

The English-eds, made up of the various races and which is the only "neutral" group that can help keep the fairness and the peace between the competing demands from the Chinese Chauvinists and minorities, is now a marginalised group.

As I said, the WP Chinese Chauvinists and WP race bigots will be further emboldened with this PE by-election results. Expect things to snap, and a very troubled future and a very different world for Singapore down the road if the PE by-election results is not simply a freak, localised, outlier result but is a fundamental change and is repeated in the next general election.

 

[6000kmApart]

Makes no difference where they work as maids. The fact remains that Sinkies will soon be working for the Pinoys if they aren't careful and start misusing their voting rights.

It does, if Sinkies work in Philippines as maids, maybe they will be treated better....

 

[Fook Seng]

From 7 seats to 30 seats... I still can't see that happening within 2 GEs.

I have just changed my prediction from 2 GEs to just 1 GEs for 30 seats. 2 GEs should see the PAP losing its majority. As long as the majority parties keep themselves apart, this can be achieved. RP and SDA do not matter.

The floodgates have been open. Just look at the emotion of the people at all WP's rallies and in the coffee shop at Blk 322. Granted these are WP friendly gatherings but the emotion is real. The underlying issues that sparked this emotion is also real. Top Sage's very good observation as a campaign volunteer on the ground reinforced this change across the board on the ground. He was so confident of a significant upset by the WP in this election.

And the problems are not just sporadic instances of lapses in governance but a result of a fundamental way of looking at national development - the view that only the elites' contribution matters in the nation building, that economic growth alone will pull the country along, that PAP is always right.

But the PAP has been adopting the same formula of governance for 50 years with practically little change although the external environment has changed dramatically. The National Conversion was a total failure. The players have been the same who have contributed to the situation today and there was a deliberate attempt to confine to such a group with only token representation from others. The fact is the ruling party sees no need for a fundamental re-look. That is the core problem with the PAP today.

So the floodgates have been open, the surge will take us by surprise from the speed that it comes and the size of its buildup. Today, nobody is really ready. But work has to start immediately to address this. Someone has turned on the clock and it has already started ticking.

 

[codex]

Just factor in their foot in mouth disease and we might see it. They simply just cannot shut up. We'll start with the string of high profile trials . next will be the price hikes. sprinkle in more NS mishaps, MRT screwups. Recession will be dessert. And more scandals will be icing on the cake. 39% holland 35% west coast. Might take 2 more GE but they are getting there

 

[kingrant]

I think the BE is secondary. Of cos the PAP will use it as an argument - it sounds neutral and in fact divert attention away from their incompetence.

The prime driver is the people's desire for alternative voices in parliament. So if there is a BE effect, it will be a bonusas it helps tremendously.
Then, voters will go for the strongest most credible Opp party or candidate.

This BE shows that MCF need not worry strong parties. It is when two equally strong Opp parties go in together, the chances of splitting is very high.

 

[Satyr]

@metalmickey. Interesting times for both parties. The PAP has an uphill task. The change needed is so fundamental it will seem the a quadruple amputation with prosthetic limbs fitted on afterwords. The WP now has to realize they have to move faster than they envisaged. They are already the alternative party and they have no choice in the matter. Or maybe LTK already knows this , going by his statement that WP can no longer consider opposition unity. Who said our politics is dull ?