BS about the BE effect

[aurvandil]

The PAP's official explaination about their shock PE loss is that it is the BE effect.

After reviewing the qualitative data over the past 9 days, I am not so sure. I believe that something fundamental has changed.

The PAP are going deny it and ban all talk about it internally. This is because if the change has indeed happened, they will need a complete change of top leadership to stay relevant. Because this cannot even be discussed, they will be completely not ready for 2016:

 

[metalmickey]

The PAP's official explaination about their shock PE loss is that it is the BE effect.

I think there is definitely the BE effect. But that's not the point.

The point is that the margin of the win was totally shocking. Even without the BE effect, PAP would have lost.

GE 2011 was a big shock to the system and this BE 2013 seems to have been the aftershock.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

The PAP's official explaination about their shock PE loss is that it is the BE effect.

After reviewing the qualitative data over the past 9 days, I am not so sure. I believe that something fundamental has changed.

The PAP are going deny it and ban all talk about it internally. This is because if the change has indeed happened, they will need a complete change of top leadership to stay relevant. Because this cannot even be discussed, they will be completely not ready for 2016:

Yes, the BE Effect excuse smacks of lame desperation to cover the gaping hole that has been ripped open.

The PAP is going to be in upheavals. The loss is a historic, shock loss. Can we compare this to Anson? Maybe, maybe not. Anson was almost an inevitability as there is bound to be a day when a seat is lost to the opposition. PE2013 is a little different. It is the continuation of the process that began in 2011 when WP took a GRC. That was the trigger that started the movement.

Normalization of Singapore politics is going to take place faster, and much sooner, than any of us could have anticipated.

 

[decent02]

Testing 123

 

[QXD]

They emphasized on the BE effect and Rivervale mall.

Surely there was also the effect of PAP being a bunch of hypocrites when they came out holier-than-thou and bashed WP over Yawgate but whitewashed Palmergate.

 

[metalmickey]

Normalization of Singapore politics is going to take place faster, and much sooner, than any of us could have anticipated.

http://www.sammyboy.com/showthread....ng-from-the-by-election&p=1374342#post1374342

I predict that PAP will lose their 2/3 majority within 10 years.

I know, that is not very consistent with my other prediction that PAP will win Punggol East, but forget about that.

I just want to repeat something I've said before: opposition will get power before they are 100% ready for it, because this is usually what happens in politics. When that happens, we'll just have to hope that they can cope. Just pray for the best.

At first, people will vote for the opposition based more on their disgruntlement with the PAP rather than the true merits of the opposition. I still believe we are not out of this stage yet. Later on, after the opposition is in power, people will inevitably will be disappointed with the opposition. Only question is - to what extent. "Slightly disappointed" is OK.

Punggol East BE has confirmed my hunch that from now on things are going to be moving very fast. I know that we took 20+ years to get from 1991 to where we are today, but after this, you will not have time to catch your breath. Whatever happens next will take place in less than 20 years. I'm now quite sure of that.

 

[wwabbit]

From 7 seats to 30 seats... I still can't see that happening within 2 GEs.

 

[metalmickey]

From 7 seats to 30 seats... I still can't see that happening within 2 GEs.

I couldn't see WP winning the BE, let alone with more than 50% of the vote.

 

[wwabbit]

The PAP's official explaination about their shock PE loss is that it is the BE effect.

After reviewing the qualitative data over the past 9 days, I am not so sure. I believe that something fundamental has changed.

The PAP are going deny it and ban all talk about it internally. This is because if the change has indeed happened, they will need a complete change of top leadership to stay relevant. Because this cannot even be discussed, they will be completely not ready for 2016:

The BE effect does contribute to the swing. It's not the whole swing, of course, but it's a significant contributor.
It's pretty much confirmed that there is a significant number of (dumbfuck) people out there that are anti-PAP but are afraid to vote against the PAP in case they lose the parliamentary majority.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

From 7 seats to 30 seats... I still can't see that happening within 2 GEs.

I believe Pakatan was formed in 2007, and the opposition in malaysia went from 21 seats (9% of the seats) to breaking the 2/3 majority of BN in a single election cycle.

Please correct me if I got this fact wrong. I know nuts about M'sian politics.

So i think in 10 years, that is entirely possible. That means by 2021, it is indeed possible to break PAP's 2/3 majority.

 

[wwabbit]

I'm not saying it's impossible. It's just not likely. I can't see the PR scenario playing out here. The only plausible path for this to happen would be for Worker's Party to take just about all the 30 seats on their own. They face a couple of challenges here

1. Multi cornered fights. 1.8% didn't affect the results in this BE, but you never know
2. Being condemned for stepping into other parties constituencies, which needs to happen since they only competed for 22 seats in GE2011.
3. Getting enough good candidates
4. By election effect will be gone in the GEs.

 

[metalmickey]

I'm not saying it's impossible. It's just not likely. I can't see the PR scenario playing out here. The only plausible path for this to happen would be for Worker's Party to take just about all the 30 seats on their own. They face a couple of challenges here

1. Multi cornered fights. 1.8% didn't affect the results in this BE, but you never know
2. Being condemned for stepping into other parties constituencies, which needs to happen since they only competed for 22 seats in GE2011.
3. Getting enough good candidates
4. By election effect will be gone in the GEs.

1 can be discounted. We have seen that SDP came to their senses and made the right decision, even thought all parties were working within a very short time frame. People did the right thing in the end. RP, SDA are basically going to be non-entities from now on. 3 corner fights will be highly unlikely. When all opposition parties have time to plan for 2016, they won't make these mistakes either.

2 can be discounted, since it is based on the faulty assumption that the WP alone has to take all the 30 seats. Anyway, WP is going to grab around 10-20 seats in the next cycle, and other parties are going to grab maybe around 5. Which means that advancing to 30 seats by 2021 is plausible. This is the reason why I don't believe WP is strong enough to take on the PAP on its own.

3 can be discounted, partly because the combined power of WP and other parties will give you more good candidates than the WP alone. And partly because like I mentioned in post #5 of this thread, "At first, people will vote for the opposition based more on their disgruntlement with the PAP rather than the true merits of the opposition. I still believe we are not out of this stage yet. " Quality of opposition is still not a crucial factor.

4 is true. But I never believed that the by election effect is that strong.

 

[wwabbit]

Discounting stuff by making unproven predictions is not going to convince anyone.
WP winning 2-4 GRCs and another opposition party winning 1 more GRC in GE2011? Not going to happen.

 

[longbow]

This is voter's reply to the changes the gov made after last election. Too little, too late.

We were told, we need to pay top dollor for top talent. Then we see MRT breakdown (laughing stock of the world) and no accountability. In Pte sector, they pay well but get fired when things go bad. Even after the wayang over minister's pay it is still stupid high.

I belief the mandarins and eunuchs know what is wrong and what to do but do not dare tell heavenly emperor or else kena chop.

 

[longbow]

SDP has Chee as a lose cannon. He is damaged goods and need to move aside. Chee is more like a mouth piece talking about human rights and democracy. Most Singaporeans care more about jobs, housing, decent transportation, schools for their children and quality of life. We already have democracy in the form of our vote.

The fear is gone and control of media is limited. People now totally discount what media says, knowing that it is media mouth pieces.

It is a whole new world.

 

[songsongpunggol]

democracy is bullshit if you have grc system.

take it out we have full democracy.

and screw the mainstream medias.

they are all run by rookies.

 

[6000kmApart]

The PAP's official explaination about their shock PE loss is that it is the BE effect.

After reviewing the qualitative data over the past 9 days, I am not so sure. I believe that something fundamental has changed.

The PAP are going deny it and ban all talk about it internally. This is because if the change has indeed happened, they will need a complete change of top leadership to stay relevant. Because this cannot even be discussed, they will be completely not ready for 2016:

Agreed. Bull shit and bull crap.

When that certain TCH got parachuted in the Marine Parade By-Election on the coat tails of GCT in 1992, where is this talk about the BE effect as we understand it today? In fact, it was spew as the people's endorsement of the PAP and the PM and his legitimacy

PE effect can cut both ways, as and when convenient.

 

[6000kmApart]

They emphasized on the BE effect and Rivervale mall.

Surely there was also the effect of PAP being a bunch of hypocrites when they came out holier-than-thou and bashed WP over Yawgate but whitewashed Palmergate.

TCH did also admitted there was something else, but he stopped short of saying Palmergate. Reporters kept harping on the same questions he had to redirect them to ask other questions. Egg on his face situation, i suppose...

 

[6000kmApart]

http://www.sammyboy.com/showthread....ng-from-the-by-election&p=1374342#post1374342

I predict that PAP will lose their 2/3 majority within 10 years.

I know, that is not very consistent with my other prediction that PAP will win Punggol East, but forget about that.

I just want to repeat something I've said before: opposition will get power before they are 100% ready for it, because this is usually what happens in politics. When that happens, we'll just have to hope that they can cope. Just pray for the best.

At first, people will vote for the opposition based more on their disgruntlement with the PAP rather than the true merits of the opposition. I still believe we are not out of this stage yet. Later on, after the opposition is in power, people will inevitably will be disappointed with the opposition. Only question is - to what extent. "Slightly disappointed" is OK.

Punggol East BE has confirmed my hunch that from now on things are going to be moving very fast. I know that we took 20+ years to get from 1991 to where we are today, but after this, you will not have time to catch your breath. Whatever happens next will take place in less than 20 years. I'm now quite sure of that.

Welcome to the real world. This kind of politics is the normalcy. 50 years ago, our PAP predecessors (when they were in opposition, they were and acted like saints weren't they?) were seen as saviours and rightly so.

Last 2 decades of bad policies and political fixing of oppositions (GRC, defamation suits, state controlled media, ISA etc) kept them in power long enough for them to slowly relinquish it to a better player (which they once were).

 

[jswyodn]

I'm going to make an even bolder prediction here. PAP will lose its 2/3 majority in 2016. Even absolute majority being lost is possible, though unlikely.

The reason for this is that true talents will start joining the opposition in droves after this result. The PAP has always thrived on its ability to attract talented people through the positive cycle of the strongest party attracting the strongest candidates. That is no longer happening now.

The true talents didn't appear in 2011 because they were waiting on the fence. 2011 was the last safe election for the PAP, and was also the last opportunity for the PAP to make amends to secure its future. The PAP did not really make the right moves in 2011, but the vote percentage was sufficient to slow down the slide. The 2011 result could have convinced talented people to sit on the fence for another GE and wait it out further.

This PE by-election, and the huge swing of 13%, showed how much the groundswell has changed over the last 2 years. The people are angry. They want change and they are not afraid of a change in government if needed. The PAP have no answers to the problems. Shuffling the cabinet around didn't do anything.

The true talents are people on the level of Goh Keng Swee, Lim Kim San, and the rest of the old guard. The heavyweights we've seen in 2011, Vincent, Chen Show Mao, and Nicole, are only the tip of the iceberg. They took up a wait-and-see approach to see whether the PAP could turn things around in 2011. This by-election is proof otherwise. Many more will join the opposition in the run up between 2011 and 2016 after seeing how fast the ground has changed.

The 13% vote swing has given the PAP one scary thought. No GRC or SMC with a 10% margin of victory is safe anymore. And if the national problems remain unsolved, even GRCs with a 15-20% margin may fall depending on the strength of the opposition candidates. I won't be surprised if the PAP starts changing their election strategy and decide to place two or three heavyweights in a few GRCs while letting go of the GRCs that they know cannot be salvaged anymore. This leads to another problem within the PAP - who to keep safe and who to let go, with George Yeo being the prime example of the latter. The MPs who know they are no longer safe will be clamouring to join the safer GRCs. This is another issue that they will need to handle internally while still dealing with national problems.

2016 is not a safe election anymore. It's no longer a question of whether they'll lose their 2/3 majority. It's a question of whether they'll lose their absolute majority.